Daily Blog • November 6th

Since #23 Toledo plays tonight, I have included their Top 25 forecast as well what is normally posted in the Friday Blog here today. Make sure to check back tomorrow for the rest of the Top 25 Forecasts and Friday for all of the FBS Picks! Jump to Week 10 News & Notes - Part 2

Last year during this game the Rockets were thinking they had a shot at the MAC Title game but found out at the half that NI had won ending their chances. UT still won 45-28. The last time here BSU led 17-0 into the 2Q (144-64 yard edge) and appeared to be in control but allowed 31 unanswered before scoring a td with :12 left falling 31-24. This is BSU’s third straight away game and they’re traveling after beating the tough Army option 30-22. QB Wenning has struggled in the last 2 putting up his lowest passing totals vs non-AQ teams. He is still avg 269 yard per game (64%) with a 17-7 ratio on the season and his top target, Snead, is #9 in the FBS in receptions per game (68, 13.3, 6 td’s). Top rusher Edwards (949, 5.7, 9) enters this contest with 3 straight 100 yard games. The Rockets come in sky high as they entered the AP Poll for the first time in 11 years. What did it take for them to become ranked? A bye week. The Rockets knocked off an undefeated Cincy, then went on the road and beat Buffalo but never made it. Thanks to the 5 losses by the teams ranked #19-#24 in at least one of the polls, Toledo snuck into all 3 this week, including the BCS, where they’re sitting at #25. The Rockets are averaging 200 yards per game rush led by Fluellen (1181, #6 FBS, 6.0, 11 td), and it’s even more impressive when you consider that UT has taken on my #3 set of rush defenses this year! QB Owens is avg 244 yards per game (63%) with a 13-5 ratio is taking on my #109 pass eff D (262 ypg, 61%, 22-6 ratio). Both teams are not only thinking MAC Title but also bowl positioning and I’ll take the home tm by a FG here.
Tuesday, November 6th PHIL Computer Computer Weekly + / - Game Las
STEELE Points Yards Poll Rating Grade Vegas
8:00 Ball St at Toledo UT UT BSU UT UT UT UT
    35-32 33-31 505-455 87% 5.5 2.02 by 6'


News & Notes - Part 2


Nine of the 15 teams that made my Most Improved List featured in this year's magazine have already clinched bowl bids and there is still a month left!!



Jordan Lynch only accounted for 3 td’s for Northern Illinois despite the final being 63-0 vs overmatched Massachusetts. NI played 2 backup QB’s leaving Lynch in for just the first series of the 3Q and he left with them up 42-0. UMass went for it on 4th down 4 times in the 1H on 4&2 at the NI47, 4&9 at the NI50, 4&2 at the NI27 and 4&8 at the NI7 and all 4 times, failed. They fumbled on their first two 3Q poss and were SOD on 4&6 at the NI46.


Derek Dooley is on the hotseat at Tennessee and needed a victory. The good news is that his offense put up 35 FD’s and 718 yards. The bad news is the D gave up 721 yards, the most ever by a Tenn opponent and they almost lost to a Sun Belt team in Troy as they trailed late in the game. It was the most yards ever combined for a Tenn game as the previous record was set back in 1997 when Tenn and Kentucky combined for 1,329. Tyler Bray hit 29-47-530. Troy QB Corey Robinson, who was injured 2 games ago, looked fully in form hitting 30-46 for 530. Things actually started well as UT bolted out to a 28-10 lead but needed a 21 yd FG on the last play of the half to retake the lead, 31-30. They trailed 48-41 when Troy got a td with 3:14 left and the Vols needed a 46 yd td pass with 2:54 left then after forcing a punt with 2:11 left, drove 66/6pl and got a 9 yd td run with 1:25 left. Troy would get

to the UT40 but fired incomplete on 4th down.


The kicking game let Tulsa down vs Arkansas as in the 1H Tulsa had a 203-158 yd edge but trailed 13-12 as they missed 2 xp’s and a FG. Later, Tulsa went for it on 4&gl from the UA5, down 15-13 passing up a FG. Trailing 15-13, UA drove 76/4pl and got a td with 10:08 left but missed the 2 pt conv, 19-15. UA went 64/12 but missed a 25 yd FG with 3:35 left. Tulsa was SOD on 4&6 at its own 24, UA then was SOD on 4&1 at the Tulsa 17. Tulsa then fmbl’d and UA took a knee. UA did finish with a 407-328 yd edge.


Landry Jones hit 32-45-405 and Brennan Clay rushed for 157 yards and Oklahoma piled up a 593-293 yd edge vs Iowa St. At the half it was OU 225-84 but they only led 14-6 blowing some opportunities. The last time ISU beat OU in Ames was 1960. OU’s opening drive went 69/11pl but on 4&1 the Belldozer was stuffed. OU was int’d and returned 47 yds to the 15 although it looked like the returnman went OOB at the 50 and it was upheld and ISU got a FG. OU was int again and ISU got a 51 yd FG but OU went 75/4 and got a 21 yd TD pass with :14 left to take momentum. The Sooners went 75/14pl and 68/8pl on their opening two 3Q poss for td’s and on their 4th went 54/4pl for a td and led 35-13 and coasted.


The key story of the Georgia Tech/Maryland game was that MD was down to a 5th string QB in Shawn Petty who had been a LB prior to moving to QB last week. GT had a 401-259 yd edge and a 19-17 FD edge. GT led 20-0 at the half and 27-0 late 3Q. Vad Lee started for GT and attempted just 2 passes as did Tevin Washington. The two combined to hit 2-4-31 but GT rushed for 370 yards vs a MD team that entered this contest in the Top 10 in the NCAA in rush D. GT had a 205-61 yd edge at the half. On yesterday’s blog I talked about teams that got td’s on the last play of the game. Maryland did just that on a 23 yd td pass with no time left and because the game was over, they did not even attempt the xp.


Wake Forest got Michael Campanaro back into the lineup and he would have 3 td receptions setting an ACC record with 16 rec for the game. Tanner Price hit 39-57-293. Boston College’s Chase Rettig hit 29-49-357 but had 3 costly int’s. BC will not be going to a bowl game for a 2nd straight year and BC has clinched last place in the Atlantic division and puts Frank Spaziani as a coach on the hotseat right now. BC’s first 2 poss ended on an int at midfield and one at the WF30 and on their 4th poss they were SOD on 4&1 at the WF47. With 3:29 left in the 1H the ball got slapped out of QB Rettig’s hands and WF rec’d at the BC15 and Campanaro got a 16 yd td catch a few plays later to make it 21-7. WF only had a 187-141 yd edge. BC missed a 43 yd FG in the 3Q, on 4&1 was SOD at the 4, was int on their next drive at the WF20 and ended the game at the WF2. BC was held to 1 yd rushing in the 1H.


Notre Dame is off to its best start since 1993, a season where they finished #2 in the country and they needed a little “Luck of the Irish” to get there. A couple times the game appeared over vs Pitt but at the end of the game, they remained in the chase for the National Title. ND did dominate statistically with 34-13 FD and 522-308 yd edges. ND settled for 47 and 20 yd FG’s on 13 and 18 pl drives to open and missed a 43 yd FG on the final play of the half to trail 10-6. Trailing 20-6 they got a td with 13:40 left but missed the xp and trailed by 8. With 4:34 left, on 2&gl from the 7, Golson was int’d in the EZ for a tb and it appeared over but they forced a punt and the Irish went 50/6pl and got a td and 2 pt conv with 2:11 left. In the 1OT each team got a FG. ND had a 1&gl at the 4 in the 2OT but Wood, as he stretched for the td, fumbled for a tb and once again the unbeaten season was over but Pitt’s kicker barely missed a 33 yd FG. Pitt got a 44 yd FG and Golson’s 1 yd td run allowed the Irish to escape with the win.


Utah St dominated Texas St. Chuckie Keeton played the entire game (due to injuries) for Utah St and hit 20-27-316 while rushing for 48 yards on 10 carries. Utah St had a 593-158 yd edge and 24-9 FD edge and led 35-0 at the half with a 347-313 yd edge. Texas St’s first drive went 63/14pl but they were int’d in the EZ from the 12 trailing 7-0 and that would be as close as they got. Utah St drove 80/12 to the 14 yd line to end the game.


Marshall had 24-21 FD and 433-372 yard edges. They were up 17-7 at the half and had a 242-110 yard edge getting a td with 3:19 left in the half on a 75/10pl drive. Memphis drove for a 28 yd FG but it was blocked and MU went 81/8pl for a td, 24-7. MU onside kicked and rec’d and went 50/7pl for another td to lead 31-7. Memphis battled back and on 4&10, faked a punt and gained 61 yds to the 2 and got a td 2pl later with 8:10 left to pull within 31-28 but Marshall went 75/7pl and got a 28 yd td pass with 4:04 left. Memphis on 4&7 was SOD at the MU40 and MU got 2 FD’s running out the clock with 4:04 left.


Dalton Williams still has 3 games to go but has already set Akron’s single season record for td’s with 24. UA had 23-18 FD edge and 442-364 yd edge vs Kent St and led 14-0 after 1Q but could not get the upset in the battle for the Wagon Wheel. UA led 21-7 late 2Q when Kent St got a td with 3:13 left but UA answered with a 32 yd FG on the 1H final play and led 24-14. Kent St went 94/10pl for a 4&1, 6 yd td run then rec’d a fumble and went 41/3pl and a 30 yd d run by Archer to take the 28-24 lead. The next 8 poss were punts and UA went for it at their own 35 yd line on 4&1 and were SOD. Kent St went 35/6pl punching in a td with just :38 left for a misleading double digit win.


Kansas played a decent 1H vs Baylor as they were only outgained 325-241 and faked a 30 yd FG trailing 17-7 and were SOD at the 14 but pulled within 17-14 with 5:46 left. Baylor would drive and got a 20 yd FG with 1:02 left got give them momentum into the lockerroom. KU was SOD on 4&2 at the BU45 and BU went 55/4pl for a td. KU threw int’s on their next 2 drives and BU went 40/6pl for a td. BU missed a 45 yd FG then went 87/4pl and after KU was SOD, BU drove and missed a 42 yd FG with 2:26 left. KU gained 60 yds on the final drive getting to the BU20. BU finished with a 666-342 yd and 32-17 FD edges and Dayne Crist saw some action hitting 2-7-15 while starter Michael Cummings hit 9-19-81 for the Jayhawks.


UNLV piled up a 530-350 yd edge vs New Mexico and the Lobos starting QB was Cole Gautsche as that position was banged up for them and he hit 3-6-43 and rushed 11 times for 35. UNLV’s first 4 poss were 48/7pl, 80/9, 78/11, 97/3 for 3 td’s and a fumble at the NM31. Trailing 28-7, NM was SOD on 4&1 at the UNLV16 and the Rebels got a 58 yd td by Randle on 2&5 with 3:12 left.


A surprising stat in Fresno St’s 45-10 win over Hawaii was that they only had an 18-17 FD edge and the yards were only 480-300. Still, UH did most of its damage late. At the half, FSU had a dominating 398-97 yd edge and led 42-3. It was similar to two things, the first was their route of Colorado at home earlier this year. Fresno St had 516-127 yd edge vs CU with 55 points at the half. Also, vs Oregon after a big lead and yardage edge. FSU shut it down in the 2H with UH getting a 75/7pl drive and a 5 yd td run with 3:06 left for a garbage td.


Southern Miss’s amazing season continued as they led 16-0 vs UAB at the half but blew that lead as UAB rallied to outscore them 27-3 in the 2H and SM remains winless. In the 2H SM had just 117 yards and 2 TO’s. At the half, SM led 16-0 and had a 180-165 yd edge. SM still led 19-17 in the 4Q when UAB took their first lead on a 40 yd FG with 3:51 left. SM got off a 9 yd punt and UAB went 50/7pl for a td. SM was SOD at the UAB43 with 1:01 left.


It’s been a different UCF team since its been announced that they would be eligible for the CUSA Championship game and a bowl. Last week UCF beat Marshall 54-17 on the road and this past week they took on CUSA West contender SMU. Latavius Murray rushed for 155 yards and has been a big difference since he returned to the lineup. UCF fumbled at the SMU24 but still had a 209-129 yard edge at the half and led 21-10. They went 55/5pl and 55/4pl on their first two 2H poss to blow it open 35-10 and fumbled into the EZ for a tb on 3&gl from the 2 in their 42-17 win. SMU’s 2H td was on a 75/12pl drive and the td came with just :30 left in the game.


Idaho fired HC Robb Akey and had interim HC Jason Gesser at the helm. They played a decent 1H vs San Jose St. It was 7-0 after 1Q thanks to a 55 yd KR to the SJS14 and a td 2pl later. SJSt had a 182-47 yd edge at the half. SJSt fmbl’d at their own 21 and UI got a 33 yd FG with 7:31 left in the 3Q to pull within 14-13 but SJSt quit fooling around and went 75/5pl, 80/7pl for td’s. After a punt they went 45/4pl for a td and added a 47 yd IR td with 9:07 left, 42-13. SJSt had 21-12 FD and 413-288 yd edges.


Iowa was without RB Mark Weisman again and Damon Bullock had 25 carries for 83 yards. Iowa led 14-3 as after going 71/6pl for a td, they got an 18 yd IR td to lead 14-0. Indiana would get a 45 yd FG on a 10pl drive, on a 38/9pl drive they were SOD on 4&1 at the 12, they missed a 38 yd FG with 6:48 left in the half but went 87/6pl and got a td with :47 left in the half to take the momentum. They had a 225-136 yd edge at the half. Iowa went 57/9pl but was int’d in the EZ on 3&12 and Indiana went 80/7pl for a td to lead 17-14. Iowa took the lead with an 88/10pl drive with 12:17 left but Indiana went 61/4pl for a td, 24-21. Indiana fumbled at the Iowa 19 but took over with 4:43 left, got 2 FD’s and didn’t punt until :18 remained. Indy had 473-345 yd and 24-17 FD edges.


Dave Christensen and Wyoming put a high priority on winning the Border War and has now won 4 in a row, the longest win streak for UW in a series since 1973 when they had won 7 in a row. Colorado St actually had a 512-468 yd edge but the key play of the game happened with the score 14-7. CSU went on a 66/7pl drive and had a 3&gl from the 8 yd line and they were int’d and returned 99 yds for a td, the dreaded 14 point swing. At the half UW led 28-14 but only had a 300-278 yd edge. CSU pulled within 28-17 and UW went 68/11pl for a td, then after a 29 yd PR, 36/4pl for a td to lead 42-17. CSU got within 45-31 with 6:48 left then kicked off deep and UW got 4 FD’s on a 50/13pl drive running out the clock to the CSU24.


Things didn’t start out well for Arkansas St as they fumbled the opening KO into the EZ and fell on it for a safety and they trailed 9-7 when they got a 39 yd FG with :54 left in the 1Q. ASU rallied to lead 23-12 and then got a 4 yd TD pass with 2:12 left in the half to go up 30-12 and had a 355-177 yd edge. North Texas QB Thompson was questionable coming in and did leave on the last series of the half but returned in the 2H. Trailing 37-19, NT got to the 10 yd line where they were int’d in the EZ and their final drive went 66/13pl but on 4&2 were SOD at the ASU4.


Texas controlled the game vs Texas Tech in their 31-22 win despite TT finishing with a 441-427 yd edge. TT had 3 DB’s injured in Cornelius Douglas, Tre Porter and Jarvis Phillips and UT QB David Ash hit 11-19-264. Texas went 71/9pl, 75/5pl, 75/1 on a td pass to Davis to score td’s on their first 3 poss to lead 21-10. It was 24-13 at the half and UT had a 286-230 yd edge. TT pulled within 24-22 but went for 2 with 1:35 left in the 3Q and it failed. That meant when UT scored a td with 9:14 left, they were up 2 scores. TT appeared to get a td but it was called back on a hold and they settled for a 23 yd FG which UT blocked with 5:15 left and UT got 3 FD on a 42/9 drive running out the clock.


Duke clinched a bowl bid 2 weeks ago with a comeback vs North Carolina for their 6th victory. They were waxed the next week by Florida St, 48-7 but returned home to face Clemson. QB Sean Renfree was questionable coming in but hit 23-39-240 yds. Tajh Boyd hit 16-23-344 and guided CU to a 34-21 FD edge and 718-342 yd edge. The Tigers’ top RB Andre Ellington missed most of the game with a hamstring injury that he re-aggravated on the first play. CU scored on their first 4 poss going 76/8pl, 75/4pl, 75/7pl and 80/7pl. They fumbled on their 5th but leading 28-17 on their 6th poss got a 41 yd TD pass going 72/5pl for a td. They were int’d on their next poss but then drove 84/5pl for a td and a 42-17 lead. CU had 6 td’s and 3 TO’s on their nine 1H poss with a 487-240 yd edge. CU had their 4th turnover on their opening drive of the 3Q but then went 69/10pl and 86/11pl for td’s before backup QB Stoudt came in with 11:51 left in the game. CU punted and were SOD on their final 2 poss.


Oregon St only beat Arizona St by 10 and the FD’s were even at 19. OSU could have easily won by more. Cody Vaz returned to the starting lineup and while he hit a pedestrian 14-33-267 yards, his 2 NFL caliber receivers, Brandon Cooks and Markus Wheaton (conc 1Q LW) both topped 100 yards. It was a poor start to the game for OSU. ASU did return DT Will Sutton. On the 3rd play, Vaz fumbled and ASU fell on it for a td, 7-0. ASU went 75/9pl for a 14-3 lead and later blocked a punt for safety and after the free kick drove 47/11 for a 31 yd FG to lead 19-10. Oregon St got a 53 yd td run in the 2Q and then got a 45 yd FG on the final play of the half to tie it at 19. OSU controlled the 2H going 52/5 for a td, 80/12pl for a td on their 3rd poss and on their 5th poss went 79/3pl with a 49 yd td pass to lead 36-19. ASU took over with 2:26 left, trailing by 17 and went 77/9pl getting a garbage td with :22 left.


USF finally stopped its school record six game losing streak but as has been the case all season, they didn’t make it easy on themselves. USF suspended LB Sam Barrington for the game and he was the leading tackler and was cited by police for driving with a revoked license. Leading 7-0 USF was int’d in the EZ with 5:32 left in the half and Connecticut got a 50 yd FG on the 1H final play to pull within 7-3. USF had a 182-127 yd edge. CT went 67/16pl to open the 3Q and a 37 yd FG, 7-6. USF got a 50 yd FG with 4:26 left, 13-6 and CT25 went 53/10pl but from the USF22 was int’d at the 23 with :50 left on FD.


Oregon’s Kenjon Barner stepped right into the Heisman chase with a school record 321 yards rushing vs USC. The amazing thing about the USC/Oregon game was not the two combining for 113 points, 68 FD’s and 1,345 yards it’s that there were plenty of points left off the board in the game. USC was the main culprit in blown scoring opportunities and it would cost them. Naturally the Ducks scored td’s on their first 5 poss. USC had a td overturned and settled for a 39 yd FG then on 1&gl from the 8 was int’d in the EZ and that had them in a 17 pt deficit. UO missed a 41 yd FG then fumbled at the USC19. USC was going in for a td to pull within 34-31 but with :15 left in the half, fumbled from the UO15. UO had a 460-404 yd edge at the half. USC trailing 55-45 was SOD on its own 20 on 4&5 and on 3&12 Barner got a 22 yd td run to make it 62-45 and USC scored a td with :01 left capping a 65/7pl drive.


It was deja vu all over again in the Alabama/LSU matchup. Last year Bama at home dominated LSU in every phase of the game but blown opportunities on FG’s cost them and they would end up losing at home. While LSU did not dominate Bama, they did finish with a 22-18 FD edge and had 435-259 yd edge before Alabama went on a 72/5 with 1:34 left for the game winning td. Unlike last year when the two teams played two games that combined for 1 td, this one had 5 td’s. LSU has one of the most accurate K’s in the country in Drew Alleman and he had a 38 yd FG early but his career long is 44 yards so when they lined up for a 47 yd FG late in the 2Q, they faked it, the first of many Les Miles gambles that backfired. They were stuffed for a -3 yard loss. Prior to the fake, LSU had gotten a FD at the Bama28 but a dead ball personal foul for a late hit on the LSU FB moved them back out of FG range. He let Alleman attempt a 54 yd FG and the kick was straight down the middle but well short of the upright and that came with 1:08 left 1H. Bama took advantage going 63/6pl and got a 9 yd td run for a td with :11 left, 14-3. LSU went 58/13 for a td to pull within 14-10 but gambled again with an onside kick and their K touched the ball a half yard short as the ball took a funny bounce. Bama fumbled at the LSU10. LSU went 90/7pl for a td and the lead, 17-14. Bama went 3&out on their next 2 poss. LSU gambled again, this time they passed up a 40 yd FG which would have put them up by 6 and went for it on 4&1 and their Wildcat QB, RB Ware, bobbled the snap and was tackled for no gain and they were stopped. LSU’s next drive went 53/12. On 4&6 they lined up for a 45 yd FG which hooked left. Had they made the FG’s, they would have locked up the win but as it was they only led by 3. Alabama went 72/5pl and got a 28 yd screen pass for a td with :51 left to pull out the win, 21-17 just when it looked like their National Championship hopes were dashed.


All of the major teams survived scares this past week and Kansas St was no exception. Oklahoma St QB Wes Lunt threw his 3rd int in the 3Q and left with an injury and Clint Chelf QB’d the rest of the way. Chelf hit 16-27-233 in his place and another QB you might have heard of, Collin Klein, left in the 3Q with injury. Daniel Sams hit 5-6-45 and ran 7 times for 20 yards. KSU got its first win over OSU since 2006. OSU had a 26-25 FD edge and 504-481 yd edge. The Cowboys opened with a 54 yd td pass to lead 7-0. KSU which punted on its first poss went 75/6pl and 74/11pl for a td and 23 yd FG. Then, after a fumble, went 29/5pl and KSU had a 5-0 TO edge. OSU settled for a 25 yd FG and then each team got a KR td to make it 24-17. The key play happened with 2:35 left in the half. OSU had the ball down by 7, when Lunt was int’d and returned 29 yds for a td, 31-17. At the half, KSU did have a 258-198 yd edge. KSU extended it to 41-20 but OSU battled back to 44-30 and had the ball at the KSU8 when Chelf was int’d in the EZ for a tb on 2&6 with 2:06 left.


Boise St only had a 276-269 yd edge and San Diego St’s special teams set up 2 of their td’s. SDSt won their 5th straight game, their longest win streak since 1995. They returned the opening KO 100 yds for a td and Boise went on a 68/12pl drive for a td but missed the xp, 7-6. BSU went 92/11pl incl a 4&4, 7 yd pass to the SDSt22 and 3pl later had a 16 yd td run, 13-7 At the half, BSU was in command with a 176-96 yd edge. Another key play happened when SDSt blocked a punt and recovered at the 8. They got a td 2pl later and on 8 yards offense, they had manufactured 2 td’s due to special teams and led 14-13. SDSt took over with 3:36 left in the 3Q and went 80/10pl and on 4&gl got a 1 yd TD run, 21-13. BSU went 75/16pl but after a 1 yd td pass the 2 pt failed with 5:35 left. SDSt took over at their 22 and got 1 FD and on 3&13, another FD then went for it on 4&2 with 1:50 left and got a 13 yd run and a personal foul moved it all the way to the BSU37 and they took a knee.


Jonathan Franklin became UCLA’s career rushing leader as he rushed for 162 yds on 24 carries. Arizona was off its big upset of USC the previous week and was in the rankings at #25 and maybe had a few too many people patting them on the back. The final score sums the game up at 66-10 as UCLA had a 36-18 FD edge and 611-257 yd edge but was even stronger at the half. UCLA had a 371-83 yd edge and led 42-3. UA QB Scott was injured on the 3rd series of the 2H but they were already down 45-10. UCLA would get two 4Q td’s on 72/8pl and 60/12pl drives and was even SOD on 4&gl at the 2 when they were tackled at the 1 with 1:36 left or would have had 73 points.