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LY with Cutler and Forte healthy the Bears were 5-1 at home with the wins by an avg of 34-17! The Colts were 0-8 on the road with their avg loss by 31-13. These two last met in ‘08 with the Bears upsetting Indy on the road 29-13. Chicago can’t help but look ahead to their divisional showdown with Green Bay on the road next Thursday. While the Bears have an edge on offense (#17-28), they have a HUGE edge on defense (#8-32) and ST’s (#1-25). Not a great situation but the Bears are off a 1-5 finish from LY without their key players but will use this game to get their confidence back up.

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Last met in ‘08 (PHI at home, 30-10, MNF in Dec). LY the Eagles were the “Dream Team” and expected to have a huge year and got their season off to a great start by whipping (31-13) a Rams team that had been 7-9 in ‘10 and was the preseason favorite to win the NFC West. TY they take on an improved Browns team that is actually an underdog in every one of their games TY. PHI does have a big home game vs BAL on deck. PHI was just 8-8 LY despite having a top 10 offense and defense. CLE also had a top 10 D LY but finished 4-12 due to a poor offense. They greatly upgraded that unit in the offseason but the skill players are all rookies. CLE always opens the season at home but is 0-7 in those games since upsetting BAL way back in 2004. PHI was 5-3 on the road LY with the avg win by 23-10.5.

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The Jets are 7-1 winning the last 4 by an avg of 33-14. In the last 8 trips here the Bills have lost by more than 4 only once. LY the Jets whipped BUF on the road but at home in need of a win for the playoffs, they trailed 24-21 late, took the lead with 1:01 left then needed Stevie Johnson to drop a td pass with :08 left to escape with a 28-24 win at home. This year BUF is the trendy playoff pick in the AFC East while the Jets, who have been everyone’s Super Bowl darling the last 2 years, have fallen out of favor and are picked to miss the playoffs. Yes, Ryan does have a big game at PIT on deck and the Jets only outscored foes at home by 7 ppg LY. BUF is just 3-14 on the road under Gailey. The Jets were #5 on defense LY while the Bills were just #26. I expect the Jets to be a playoff team this year and they are at home and are now under the radar with something to prove and that is when they are at their best.

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Last met in ‘09 (NO away, 33-30, OT). WAS is actually one of the most improved teams in the NFL and the Saints are at the other end of the spectrum and have an interim HC to their interim HC (OL coach Aaron Kromer). LY NO won its home games by an avg of 42-19. WAS has an exciting rookie QB in Robert Griffin III and LY NO only beat CAR (with Newton at QB) by 3 in Sept (on road) but did wax them 45-17 at home holding CAR to 301 yds (89 below season avg). Shanahan's team LY was only outgained 326-313 on the road even defeated the eventual SB champs in week 14 when the Giants were fighting for a playoff spot. He has opened each of the last 2 seasons with an upset win knocking off the NYG and DAL but both were at home. The Saints take the game, but the Redskins keep it closer than expected.

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When these two last met in ‘09, NE rolled to a 59-0 win (that’s not a typo!). With only ARZ on deck NE should be well prepped for the Titans who are coming off a 9-7 season. TEN did upset BAL in their home opener LY, 26-13, but benefitted by catching the Ravens off a big win over PIT. Belichick has won his last 8 openers with the extra time he gets to work on the game in preseason. TEN was outgained at home LY but NE did allow 440 ypg on the road. NE has a much improved defense and I rate them #16 (#3 off) with TEN #18 and #30 on off and def respectively. At the end of the year I project NE to win the SB and the Titans to be an also-ran at 6-10.

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Last met in ‘08 (MIN away, 30-12). The Vikings enter year 3 of the Leslie Frazier era and LY in their 1-7 finish they got a total of 175 rush yds from an oft-injured Peterson and were using a rookie QB. They had a lot of key indicators like SEVEN net close losses LY and show up #3 in my most improved list (but JAX is #10). MIN now has a revamped back 7 and while MJD returned to JAX he doesn’t know Mularkey’s offense having not met him until Sept 2 face-to-face and will not be able to approach LY’s performance missing the entire preseason. MIN ranks #24 on off and #29 on def while Jax is #26 on off and #18 on defense. Gabbert can be easily confused and now he must contend with the loud Metrodome crowd with a shaky OL vs DE Allen (22 sks LY). JAX avg just 238 ypg on the road LY!

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HOU clinched its division LY and then celebrated and dropped the last 3 of the regular season. They also lost QB Schaub to injury mid-year or would have had one of the best records in the NFL. They do have a division game on deck at JAX. LY these two met in week 2 at MIA and HOU won 23-13. While MIA was 2-6 on the road LY they were only -18 ypg on the road (-37 ypg at home!). They do have a new HC, coordinators and a very limited WR corps. HOU has a slight edge on D (#4-12) but a huge edge on offense (#1-31!). The Texans DC Wade Phillips is in his 2nd season and after LY’s #2 def finish, and #6 finish in sacks he’ll unload unimaginable pressure on MIA rookie QB Tannehill. Houston opens up the season strong again.

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In the Lions 5 home wins LY they won by 45, 11, 14, 6 and 28. This is the first year they come in with high expectations after making the playoffs LY for the first time since 1999. St Louis lost on the road LY by an avg score of 25-8. These two last met in 2010 when STL was a 7-9 team and they were here in Detroit and were pounded 44-6 (Rams 341-322 yd edge though). STL is #1 on my most improved list this year while Detroit is a bottom ten team on that list (#23). Detroit has a huge game on Sunday Night next week vs SF on the road and may peek ahead a bit making this game closer than what many think.

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Last met in ‘08. While Matt Ryan is an NFL veteran this is his first trip to Arrowhead. KC returns RB Charles, TE Moeaki, SS Berry and have an upgraded OL with RT Winston from HOU. When they made the playoffs in 2010 the Chiefs were 7-1 at home and I feel they have a playoff caliber team TY. ATL has a MNF game vs DEN on deck. The offenses are close but KC has my #9 rated D (ATL #22) and KC is at home and get the upset.

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SF is much stronger than in 2010 when they travelled here and were whipped 34-16. SF was 6-2 on the road LY. SF has my #1 rated D and the Packers are coming off a season where they were last in the NFL on defense. The two years prior GB was #5 and #2 on D and I expect them to be much tougher on that side and rate them #11. The Packers do not like the way it ended last year with their upset loss at home to the Giants and will want to get their season off on a solid note. The 49ers actually were in the NFC Title game after going 6-10 the year prior. The biggest edge here (besides home field) is Aaron Rodgers vs Alex Smith.

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LY CAR caught the Bucs at the tail end of the year. TB was 10-6 in 2010 and came into 2011 with playoff expectations. They beat BOTH ATL and NO in the 1H of the year but never recovered from their trip to London. TB fell out of touch with the playoff race at the end losing their last 10 games (including 19 & 32 pt losses to CAR). QB Freeman missed the game here in TB due to a shoulder issue and is in vastly better shape for 2012. TY Tampa has a new HC in Schiano but a lot of the young talent they had LY, when they were the chic pick to make the playoffs, is still here. This year TB is my #4 most improved team and will more closely resemble that 2010 unit which beat CAR at home 31-16. CAR was 3-5 on the road LY but those wins came over that beleaguered TB team, a poor IND and a HOU team that had clinched the playoffs. TB upgraded at RB, TE, WR and HC in the offseason. My power ratings have he Bucs as the slightly stronger team talent-wise, they are at home and an underdog and that makes them the pick here.

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SEA lost the season finale in OT here LY and now matches up vs ARZ again in the opener at the same spot. ARZ has the edge on offense (#22-29) while the Seahawks rate the edge on defense (#14-20). The ST’s are close (#9-12). SEA is just 8-26 on the road while ARZ is 26-14 at home and finished LY winning 5 of their last 6 overall. ARZ has Skelton getting the start but SEA is fielding a true rookie in Russell Wilson who got just 1 start in pressn. I even pick both teams to each finish 6-10 this year. Add it all up these teams are even and I will call for the home team to win by 1.

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The Steelers just traveled here and were upset in the playoffs last year in OT and get a quick shot at revenge. They do match up against Peyton Manning this time around and the Mile High crowd should be at their loudest after getting a taste of the playoffs last year. However, the old DEN offense used to run a lot, so the D wasn't on the field as much. Now with Manning at QB and running a faster paced offense the D will be on the field longer, which they're unaccustomed to. PIT, a healthier Roethlisberger, and an improved OL revenges LY's loss in a close one.