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October 12, 2009

 

Although the Bearcats’ season has not quite    reached the half way point, it seems a prudent time to review their season, following this weekend’s bye. 

 What has gotten Cincinnati from 5-0

 The Passing Game – Tony Pike has the passing attack clicking on all cylinders.  Pike’s performance thus far has put him into serious Heisman consideration.  Pike has thrown for at least 200 yards and 2 touchdowns in every game.  He is completing two thirds of his passes and has a 13-3 touchdown to interception raito.  His efforts have put the Bearcats at 6^th in the nation in passing offense, averaging a hair under 330 yards per game.  Pike’s favorite target has been Mardy Gilyard, who is having an All-American caliber season in his own regard with 517 receiving yards and 9 total touchdowns.  The success of the passing game is a major reason for the Bearcats strong start. 

 Tackles for Loss – When Brian Kelly brought Bob Diaco in to take over the defense, a presumptive goal was to make more plays in the backfield.  So far, the mission has been accomplished.  Cincinnati is 1^st in the nation in tackles for loss, averaging 10 per game.  What makes that more impressive is that no individual defender has carried the load.  19 different players on the Bearcats’ defense recorded a tackle for loss.  DE Alex Daniels is leading the way so far with 6.5 tackles for loss, but has a number of players on his heels for the team lead.  If they can sustain this through Big East play, they should continue to field a very strong defense. 

 Turnover Margin – Bob Diaco’s defense has also done a great job of forcing turnovers.  Only one team in the country has more interceptions than the Bearcats’ 10.  The offense has done a good job of protecting the football as well.  The team has yet to lose a fumble and has thrown just 3 interceptions in 188 attempts.  Last year, Cincinnati’s turnover margin was -8; if they can sustain their +8 pace, they should become Big East Champions once again. 

 

What could keep Cincinnati from 12-0

 Time of Possession – In their last two games, the Bearcats have held the ball for 35 minutes combined, an embarrassingly low figure.  UC gets away from the run game after their opponent sustains long drives.  While they have done a great job of scoring quickly through the air, they need to have more balance in their offense.  If they do not start running the ball more frequently, then they are going to struggle against the more physical teams in the Big East, who will wear the defense down.    

 Running Defense – Statistically, the running defense has been strong this year.  They struggled, however, against the between-the-tackles running style of Fresno State.  The Bulldogs ran for 290 yards on the Bearcats’ defense.  The other four opponents have run for just 253 yards put together.  But when Cincinnati plays teams with physical running games, such as Connecticut and Pittsburgh, they might struggle to contain their ground game, which could be the downfall of this team.    

  K Jake Rogers – Rogers has struggled with inconsistency throughout his career.  He missed a 31-yard field goal against Oregon State that would have sealed the victory.  Those types of misses should not happen from a kicker who is in his third year starting.  The Bearcats have not needed him much this year, sending him out for just 3 field goals.  Still, it is difficult to have confidence in him if he is needed in a clutch situation given his track record, even on a kick as simple as an extra point. 

 

Offensive MVP

 QB Tony Pike – Did you see the numbers from above?  Based solely on this season’s performance, Pike should probably be the top candidate in the eyes of the Heisman voters.  He has carried the Bearcat offense on his back.  If he can continue to avoid the occasional dud game that plagued him last year, he may very well find himself in New York at the season’s end.  At the very least, he looks like the frontrunner to be the team MVP this season.    

 

Defensive MVP

 ILB JK Schaffer – Schaffer has come a long way this season after not starting the season opener.  He recorded an interception against Rutgers, helping him earn a starting position at inside linebacker and has not looked back since.  JK is leading the way in solo tackles with 19.  He has also showed outstanding ability defending the pass, leading the team in both interceptions and pass breakups.  He forced Oregon State’s first turnover of the year, coming up with a big interception in the fourth quarter.  He also had a clutch pick against Miami, catching the ball in the end zone to prevent a score in the game which only had a 10 point margin at the time.

 

October 2, 2009

Miami (OH) Game Preview
By Dan

This week marks the 114th Battle for the Victory Bell, the oldest rivalry west of the Allegheny Mountains.  Although Miami currently leads the series 59-47-7, the Bearcats have won three straight.  Before Cincinnati’s last trip to Yager Stadium, Brian Kelly stirred a bit of controversy by saying no BCS school should play a home and home with a MAC team, no matter how old the rivalry.  UC backed his sentiments by pounding Miami 47-10.  In the Brian Kelly era, the Bearcats have outscored Miami 92-30. 

Miami (OH) Analysis

Despite being ranked last in the nation in scoring offense, the Miami offense is not wholly incompetent.  Their yardage total is much better than their points would indicate and that is largely due to turnovers.  No team has turned the ball over as often as the Redhawks.  In fact, no team is close; Miami’s 16 turnovers thus far trumps their nearest competitor by 3.  Redshirt freshman Zac Dysart took over at quarterback last week and had a solid game, topping 300 yards passing and 100 yards rushing.  His running ability brings a new dimension that could cause problems for the defense, but the rest of the running game is weak.  Dysart has a solid stable of receivers to throw to, with Armand Robinson and Eugene Harris leading the way.  The offensive line is a major issue.  Miami is 108th in rushing yards per game and tied for 100th in sacks allowed per game.  The defense has been equally putrid this year, ranking second last in scoring defense.  Their pass defense has been the main culprit; only one team has allowed more touchdowns through the air, contributing to their 113th ranking in pass efficiency defense.  Like our past two opponents, Miami has not made many big plays on defense, recording just 4 sacks and 2 interceptions in 4 games.  As bad as the offense and defense have been, the Redhawk special teams may actually be worse.  They currently rank last in Phil Steele’s special teams rankings, compared to Cincinnati’s 7th.  Miami ranks in the bottom five of all the major special team’s categories.

Key Matchups

WR Mardy Gilyard v. The Miami Coverage Units – The 2008 Big East Special Teams Player of the Year gets to face the worst coverage units in football.  Think that might be a mismatch?  Miami allows 28.8 return yards per kickoff and has a net punting average of 27.7.  Gilyard has a chance to have a field day on Saturday.  Even if he cannot spring a touchdown, Gilyard should help put the Bearcats in solid field position all day. 

MLB JK Shaffer v. QB Zac Dysart – Dysart is the only hope for Miami this week.  His running ability brings an element that could be tough for the Bearcats to stop.  Shaffer seems to be the most likely candidate to be asked to spy Dysart and prevent him from running wild.  He also can serve as a play-maker in the passing game.  Dysart’s biggest weakness is turnovers – he averages an interception every 16 pass attempts.  Shaffer has proven himself as the Bearcats’ best pass defending linebacker and will have more chances to show it this week.   

QB Tony Pike v. CB Brandon Stephens – If there is one player on the Miami defense to be wary of, it is Stephens.  So far on the year, the Redhawk cornerback has 2 interceptions and 3 pass breakups.  He may be asked to shut down Mardy Gilyard in the passing game or stop one half of the field.  Either way, it will be Pike’s job to recognize him and make smart passes in his direction, as he might be the only player who can stop the Cincinnati passing attack.   

Bearcat in the Spotlight

CB Marcus Barnett – Bones struggled last season at receiver and lost his starting job to Armon Binns this year.  Now he finds himself starting on defense and struggled in his debut last week, allowing too many runs to bounce outside of him.  Barnett will have to redeem himself this week against Miami or may not be returned to a backup role on the offense once the South Florida game rolls around. 

Keep an Eye On

WR DJ Woods – Something gives me the feeling that this could be a big week for Woods.  Following Mardy Gilyard’s stellar performance against Fresno State, it seems like Miami might be overzealous to stop him, opening holes for fellow receivers DJ Woods and Armon Binns.  Woods should take advantage.  Also, he saw the field last week as a punt returner next to Gilyard.  If Miami is scared to punt it to Gilyard, they will have to boot it in Woods’s direction, who is also dangerous. 

Cincinnati will win if…

they show up.  Right now, Miami looks like one of the worst FBS teams in the country.  They’ve been outscored in the first half 88-10 on the year.  They started the year by being outscored 138-6 against Kentucky, Boise State, and Western Michigan.  The Bearcats should have a cakewalk against their “rivals.”

Miami (OH) will win if…

mild-mannered quarterback Zac Dysart is in fact superman and the Bearcats forgot to bring their kryptonite.  He really is their only hope, and he would have to take care of the football while posting incredible numbers.  Miami will probably need to pull out a few tricks along the way as well. 

Prediction

Playing their home opener in front of a predominantly Bearcat crowd, the Redhawks attempt a trick play on the first play of the game, hoping to catch UC off guard.  The end result is a turnover and run of points by the Bearcats.  The backups play most of the second half after the Bearcats built a 34-0 halftime lead, and even they outplayed the Miami starters, winning the half and keeping the shutout.

Cincinnati 51, Miami (OH) 0

 

September 30, 2009

Fresno State Wrap-Up
By: Dan

 

Football is a game of inches.  In most games, the inches that can go either way tend to balance out in the end.  In others, however, one team seems to pick up every yard it needs while the other falls just short.  In those games, it usually dooms the team not catching the breaks.  Despite Fresno finding every millimeter they needed, the Bearcats still came away victorious, 28-20.  Even though Fresno State had the ball almost three times as long as UC.  Even though the Bulldogs converted 16 third or fourth downs on 20 tries.

Game Ball

WR Mardy Gilyard – As much as I’d like to go against the grain on this one, Gilyard is the obvious choice.  Mardy was a major reason the Bearcats were able to score 28 points despite having just 39 offensive plays.  Gilyard had 177 yards on 9 catches, 2 of which were for touchdowns.  His first catch was a short slant route that he turned into a 56 yard gain before surprisingly being caught from behind.  He redeemed himself by scoring 3 plays later on an 11 yard touchdown grab.  His 4^th quarter 23 yard touchdown grab on a corner route gave the Bearcats all the points they needed to finish off Fresno. 

Key Matchup Review

LT Jeff Linkenbach v. DE Chris Carter – This matchup nearly changed the outcome of the game.  The Fresno defense played as advertised, failing to make big plays all day.  They only managed 2 tackles for loss all game and did not force a turnover.  Carter was neutralized most of the game by Linkenbach until late in the 4^th quarter, when Carter was able to turn the corner on Link enough to get a finger on Tony Pike.  Unfortunately, the rest of his hand smacked the football and forced the ball loose.  Pike quickly fell on the ball, preventing a disaster, but had Fresno recovered, it would have completely changed the dynamic of the game. 

Difference Making Play

Interception on 4^th and 2 by OLB Craig Carey, returned for 21 yards – On a drive in which the Bulldogs moved the ball at will on the ground, Pat Hill decided to dial up a play action on 4^th and 2 at the 6 yard line.  Quarterback Ryan Colburn faked the handoff and looked quickly to his tight end, who was leaking into the flat.  A former quarterback, Craig Carey quickly diagnosed the tight end releasing into a route and did his best to block the passing lane.  Colburn failed to recognize Carey dropping and threw the ball right into his chest.  A Fresno State field goal would have put them down just a point with the entire 4^th quarter left to play.  A touchdown would have given the underdogs the lead.  The interception led to a Bearcat scoring drive, which would be all the Bearcats needed.   

Breakout Performer

DE Dan Giordano – Despite the high rushing yardage allowed, the Bearcats defensive line played well, often bottling up Fresno running backs near the line of scrimmage.  Giordano did not start, but got his name called more than any other Bearcat lineman, finishing with 9 tackles.  While Ricardo Mathews had another strong game, fellow defensive ends Alex Daniels and John Hughes did not live up to their expectations.  Giordano, however, made his presence known this week. 

Expect to See More Of…

RBs Jacob Ramsey and Isaiah Pead – Can someone put out an APB for the Bearcat running backs?  Did Brian Kelly forget that he is coaching college football, or is he trying to fill the void for fans of the disbanded Arena Football League?  On Cincinnati’s opening drive, the Bearcats ran the ball 4 times for 33 yards.  It seemed like it would be a fairly balanced offense for the day.  They called just 9 more runs for 36 yards.  When the Bearcats get into Big East play, they will need to run the ball with more frequency and more consistently. 

Other Notes

Tony Pike has been incredible this year.  He is playing almost flawless football and has the passing game clicking on all cylinders.  The real test will come against South Florida, whose defensive line harassed Christian Ponder and helped hold Florida State to just 7 points last week. 

DJ Woods had an incredible catch, going full extension to corral a ball that he eventually caught on the ground, while being interfered with.  Bearcat fans need to get excited about the true sophomore. 

Derek Wolfe had a very nice game.  Most of Fresno’s rushing success was to the outside, which was partially due to the strong play in the middle by Wolfe. 

JK Shaffer was also solid on the inside.  He was not perfect, but made a number of tackles and was very good in pass coverage when Fresno threw.

After playing great last week, Walter Stewart was almost non-existent against Fresno.  He was eventually replaced in the lineup by Craig Carey.  The Bearcat defense should be much better off once Curtis Young returns.

Marcus Barnett started at cornerback in place of the injured Dominique Battle and struggled in run support.  It seemed like every long run by the Bulldogs occurred because Barnett lost contain and their running backs were able to bounce it to the outside.  He needs to clean that up if he is going to stay at corner.

Drew Frey had another nice game, leading the team in tackles.  Unfortunately, most of those tackles came downfield after big plays. 

Aaron Webster ended the game with a big-time hit.  He jacked up Chastin West on Fresno’s final 4^th down effort, separating him from the ball at the same time.  He is living up to his billing of the biggest hitter in the Big East.

Sorry for the preview not being posted.  There must have been a communication issue somewhere along the way.  This week’s should be available either Thursday or Friday.

 

September 25, 2009

Cincinnati Recap
By: Jason Nafziger

Recap: After blowing out Rutgers and Southeast Missouri State and, Cincinnati posted a huge road win over Oregon State. Stats so far: Cincy ranks 40th with 4.76 yards per rush attempt and 14th with 9 yards per passing attempt. Overall, they have averaged 48.3 points and 516.7 yards on offense per game. Defensively, they are 10th with 2.06 yards allowed per rush attempt and 27th with 5.5 yards allowed per pass attempt. Overall, they have allowed 12 points and 271 yards per game. Coming up: Cincinnati will try stay unbeaten against dangerous Fresno State, followed by road trips to Miami (OH) and South Florida, both of which the Bearcats should handle easily.

Jason Nafziger writes about Pro and College Football at
http://onfootball.wordpress.com

Fresno St Preview
By: Dan

Fresno State Game Preview

Pat Hill and the Fresno State Bulldogs live by the mantra “anyone, anyplace, anytime,” an allusion to the fact that they will take on any opponent, no matter how difficult.  Their finest hour was a near-miss over national runner-up USC in 2005.  After losing back-to-back games against Wisconsin and Boise State, however, their sentiment against the Bearcats should ring closer to “anyone, anyplace, just please not this week.”

Fresno State Analysis

 The Bulldog offense is very potent and lives on big plays.  Running back Ryan Mathews has been electric this season, averaging over 9 yards per carry.  He is a prime example of a boom or bust runner, though; against Boise State, he had 3 touchdown runs for 197 yards, but just 37 yards on his other 16 carries.  His backup, true freshman Robbie Rouse, is no slouch either, averaging 7.4 yards per run.  The duo leads a rushing offense that ranks 4^th in the nation.  The passing attack is not as vibrant, but starter Ryan Colburn has 6 touchdowns in 3 games thus far.  Their defense, on the other hand, has been killed by big plays, both by allowing them and by failing to make any on their own.  Fresno has already allowed 4 rushing touchdowns of over 60 yards on the season.  Boise State scorched them on the ground last week, rushing for 299 yards on just 29 carries – over 10 yards per carry for the team.  By comparison, the passing defense seems outstanding, although they are statistically average.  Last year the team’s defensive issue was a lack of big plays; they had only 18 sacks and were -11 in turnover margin.  They are stuck in the same habits this year, ranking tied for 110^th in sacks and 107^th in turnover margin.  DE Chris Carter has both of the team’s sacks this season.  MLB Ben Harris is the team’s leading tackler and best defender.

Key Matchups

 RB Isaiah Pead v. SS Moses Harris – So far on the year, Fresno State has allowed Wisconsin running back John Clay to run for 143 yards and Boise State running backs Jeremy Avery and DJ Harper to run for 186 and 107 yards, respectively.  Both Jacob Ramsey and Isaiah Pead have a tremendous opportunity to boost their running totals this week in a pass happy offense.  Pead especially should be licking his chops, as both Avery and Harper are from the same school of scat backs and embarrassed the Bulldogs’ defense.  Against Boise, Harris led the team in tackles with 9.  He will have to make more stops closer to the line this week against Cincinnati, facing a running attack that has the potential to explode.

 LT Jeff Linkenbach v. DE Chris Carter – Chris Carter has 2 of the team’s 2 sacks this year.  If the Bearcats can prevent him from pressuring Tony Pike, then the passing attack should be in a position to move the ball on their own.  The onus of that responsibility will be put on Jeff Linkenback’s shoulders.  This should be a matchup that the Bearcats can win, and if so, their offense should light up the scoreboard like it’s the Chinese New Year. 

 SS Aaron Webster v. RB Ryan Mathews – Priority number one for the Bearcats’ defense is to stop Ryan Mathews.  If Mathews can be contained then the offense will struggle.  Aaron Webster’s job will be to keep him from getting past the linebackers.  While it will be difficult to bottle him up with the front seven every carry, Webster must track him down and prevent him from turning a good run into an explosive play. 

 Bearcat in the Spotlight

 FS Drew Frey –  If Webster cannot contain Ryan Mathews, then Frey willhave to clean up the mess.  Against a Fresno State offense that relies on big plays by both their running and passing games, Frey may very well be the most important player on the team this game.  His job is to prevent the long touchdown plays.  8 of the team’s 14 offensive touchdowns are on plays over 20 yards.  Keeping those big plays out of the end zone is the key to shutting down the Bulldog offensive attack, which ranks 20^th in scoring offense. 

 Keep an Eye On

 DE Alex Daniels – Not only will preventing the big play be important for the defense, but forcing Fresno State into passing situations will be as well.  Although Ryan Colburn has 6 touchdown passes this year, he also has thrown 6 interceptions.  The Bearcats defense, currently 2^nd in the nation in tackles for loss, should be able to make plays in the backfield against Mathews, a back that has been somewhat prone to lose yards on carries this year.  The entire defensive line has a chance to make plays in the backfield, but look for Daniels to make his presence known. 

 Cincinnati will win if…

 they have more big plays.  Simply put, if the Bearcats can make more big plays than Fresno State, they should have no problem winning.  Big plays can be long passes, explosive runs, sacks, or turnovers.  Fresno State is very good at some of those (explosive runs) but really struggles in others (sacks, turnovers).  Yet, the Bulldogs still live off the big play.  Cincinnati similarly thrives on making plays, but is pretty good in all four regards.  As long as they can prevent Fresno’s big runs while making a few plays of their own, the game should be in the bag.  

 Fresno State will win if…

 Cincinnati starts buying into their hype.  The sports section of The Cincinnati Enquirer was headlined with an article exploring the possibility of the Bearcats in the National Championship game.  The University of Cincinnati began classes Wednesday; students have a fever and the only cure is more Bearcat winning.  While all these good feelings abound, a scary Fresno State team is coming to town – a team built on knocking schools off their pedestal.  If Cincinnati is not focused, thinking they can cruise to a victory, and Fresno State can keep the game in contention long enough for the players to feel the tension, then the Bulldogs have a shot at pulling of the upset. 

 Prediction

Someone hit the snooze button on the Bulldogs alarm clocks.  Playing at 9 AM Pacific Time, Fresno State is hit with a flurry of scoring before they even fully wake up.  A pair of turnovers, combined with long touchdowns by Isaiah Pead and Mardy Gilyard, help give the Bearcats a 28-0 lead at the end of the first.  Fresno looks respectable the rest of the game and even closes the lead late, but it is too little too late.

Cincinnati 45, Fresno State 27

 

September 22, 2009

Oregon State Wrap-Up
By: Dan

 

This was a statement game for both the Bearcats and the Big East.  After demolishing both Rutgers and Southeast Missouri State, Cincinnati had an opportunity to face a quality non-conference opponent on the road to prove they are for real.  The Big East got the chance to present their best team to a nationally televised audience with the hope of showing that the Big East is much better than advertised.  The Bearcats did not disappoint.  Although they did not cruise to victory as they did in their first two matchups, Cincinnati won a hard fought game against a very Oregon State football team, 28-18

Game Ball

 DE Ricardo Mathews – Nationally, Tony Pike was considered the top player for his performance against Oregon State, but Mathews was the man against OSU.  Time and time again, Mathews made big plays when his team needed it the most.  His numbers were very good but by no means were jaw dropping – 5 tackles, 2.5 for loss and 1 sack – but his impact on the game much bigger.  He combined to stuff Jacquizz Rodgers on a third and one play early in the second quarter.  He and Walter Stewart sacked Sean Canfield with a minute left in the half, helping to set up a Bearcats’ scoring drive.  And with the Bearcats up by 6 facing a first and goal on the 5 yard line, Mathews made back to back plays in the backfield to force a field goal that kept the Bearcats lead.  The quarterback may get the love, but Mathews deserves the ball. 

Key Matchup Review

 The Bearcat Offensive Line v. The Beavers Defensive Line –“If Oregon State expects to win this week, they must pressure quarterback Tony Pike and make big plays to help their defense get off the field.”  The Beavers managed to get more pressure on Pike than anticipated, but were only able to record one sack.  The Bearcat offense works very much in rhythm; when you take them out of rhythm with a sack, you can usually get them off the field.  Oregon State was not able to do that often enough to win the game. 

Difference Making Play

 45 Yard Touchdown Pass from Tony Pike to DJ Woods – Cincinnati had the ball with 46 seconds left in the half on their own 39 yard line.  It seemed as though Cincinnati was looking at a field goal opportunity to increase their lead to 17-8 before halftime.  Brian Kelly had other plans.  After a 16 yard pass to Mardy Gilyard and an incompletion, Cincinnati had the ball on second and ten at Oregon State’s 45.  Inexplicably, an Oregon State cornerback allowed DJ Woods to get past him vertically, allowing Tony Pike to find his receiver for a touchdown.  That increased the lead to 21-8, which would be all the cushion the Bearcats needed. 

Breakout Performer

 OLB Walter Stewart – No Curtis Young?  No problem.  After starting outside linebacker Curtis Young went down with an injury at practice, the redshirt freshman faced the difficult task of filling his shoes against a very potent offense.  He did not disappoint.  Stewart ended the game with 2.5 sacks and a forced fumble.  Although Young is certainly a more complete player, Stewart is a dynamic pass rusher with very good speed off the edge.  He is not going to win many battles with a bull rush, but he is capable of using his quickness to force pressure both outside and inside the tackle.  The team will be better off once Young returns from his knee injury, but the team can breathe easier knowing that they have a capable backup as well as the pass rusher of the future in Stewart. 

Expect to See More Of…

 P Patrick O’Donnell – This is not as much as an endorsement for O’Donnell as it is to the poor game his counterpart Jake Rogers had punting the ball.  Opting to kick rugby style this week, Rogers kicked back-to-back punts of 27 and 20 yards, giving a whole new meaning to the word shankapotamus.  O’Donnell had a decent performance on the day; his first netted only 20 yards but was very good thereafter.  He should continue to see more and more of the action as the team’s regular punter. 

Other Notes

 Despite only gaining 85 total yards, Isaiah Pead looked very good.  He finds holes well and is very dangerous as a receiver. 

Mardy Gilyard had a disappointing game.  He missed a couple of near catches that would have been big plays.  If he wants to be an All-American and first round draft pick, he needs to reel those balls in. 

Armon Binns had a solid game and has been a dependable possession receiver for the team. 

The tight ends have not overcome their case of the drops. 

The defense won the game by not giving up the big play.  The Beavers longest play of the night was a 26 yard pass to James Rodgers.  They let James bend the defense frequently – he had 22 offensive touches for 157 yards, but they never broke to the speedy receiver.  Much of that credit can go to safety Drew Frey, who led the team in tackles this week. 

JK Shaffer did not disappoint.  He had 8 tackles, 1 for a loss, a pass deflection and an interception.  He was constantly around the football and looked like most complete linebacker on the field this week. 

 

September 17, 2009

Oregon State Game Preview
By: Dan

 

Through two games, the Cincinnati Bearcats have looked like an unstoppable force.  This Saturday, the will face their toughest test to date as they travel across the country to face #24 Oregon State.  At this point, the Beavers are ranked more for their past accomplishments, having finished each of the past three years in the top 25, than the current year’s results.  After beating FCS opponent Portland State 34-7, Oregon State needed a last second field goal to win a road game over UNLV, a team that hasn’t made a bowl since 2000. 

 

Oregon State Analysis

 

The Beaver offense begins with a steady diet of Jacquizz Rodgers.  Despite standing only 5’7” and lacking breakaway speed, Rodgers is a very efficient between the tackles runner who can bleed teams to death.  He is also the favorite target in the passing game, leading the team with 14 receptions thus far.  His brother James Rodgers is the other facet of the offense as the team’s best wide receiver.  A faster player, James is dangerous with the football in his hands, which they will do in a variety of ways.  Sean Canfield is very accurate at quarterback.  He is currently first in the nation in completion percentage, completing 78.6% of his passes.  Their offensive line is typically strong and returned three starters, so it should be another tough unit.  The defense returned just three starters from a year ago and the results have been middling.  Although they have allowed just 28 points, the defense has been devoid of big plays mustering just 1 sack and 1 interception.  Linebacker Keaton Kristick is the best player and the unit’s leader.  Defensive tackle Stephen Paea is the biggest pass rushing threat after recording five sacks last year.    

 

Key Matchups

 

OLB Demetrius Jones v. RB Jacquizz Rodgers – Jones will likely be asked to shut ‘Quizz down in the passing game this week.  The Oregon State offense does everything they can to get him the ball.  He caught 29 balls last year and already has 14 receptions this year.  To get the efficient offense of Oregon State off the field, Jones will have to limit the success of screens and dumpoffs to Rodgers.  If he can do that, it should prevent Canfield from getting in a rhythm.  In addition, he will have to fly around the football in the run game to prevent big runs from Rodgers

 

CB Dominique Battle v. WR James Rodgers – Dominique Battle will likely be given the task to shut down the other Rodgers this week.  The Beavers are creative in getting the ball to Rodgers.  He was second on the team with 408 rushing yards and third on the team with 607 receiving yards last season.  Battle will have his work cut out for him, but has shown plenty of potential in the early season.  Sending a message to the small Rogers, who also stands at just 5’7”, could limit his effectiveness while also setting a tone for the defense.  If the team can limit James’s success on end arounds and reverses, then containing Jaquizz will be much easier. 

 

The Bearcat Offensive Line v. The Beavers Defensive Line – As I mentioned earlier, the Oregon State defense has just 1 sack after two games, having played Portland State and UNLV.  In those two contests, the Beavers had 76 passes thrown on them.  To counter, the Bearcat offensive line has allowed just 1 sack on 71 attempts.  Last week, the Beaver defense struggled when UNLV was playing from behind; they allowed two fourth quarter touchdowns to give up the lead when UNLV attacked through the air.  That does not bode well for this week considering Cincinnati operates almost exclusively from that style.  If Oregon State expects to win this week, they must pressure quarterback Tony Pike and make big plays to help their defense get off the field.  If they do not, it will be a long game for the Beaver defense.

 

Bearcat in the Spotlight

 

NT Derek Wolfe – Big things were expected out of the second year nose tackle following an impressive spring.  Unfortunately, he has not quite lived up to the hype, recording just 2 tackles on the season.  While his job is more to occupy blockers and allow his linebackers to make plays, he has hardly seen the backfield.  His backup Brandon Mills, on the other hand, has consistently made plays.  This week, the Bearcats’ defense is faced with the task of stopping the 2008 Pac-10 Offensive Player of the Year in running back Jaquizz Rodgers.  It needs to start with Wolfe.  If he can make plays, or at least allow other Bearcats to, then the team should be in good shape this week.  If he does not, playing time is in jeopardy. 

 

Keep an Eye On

 

ILB JK Shaffer – The Cincinnati run defense will need to make stops on the inside against Jaquizz Rodgers and on the outside against James Rodgers.  While Andre Revels is the team’s best inside stuffer and Demetrius Jones and Curtis Young are strong on the outstide, JK Shaffer has the best combination of the two.  He will need to show it this week against Oregon State.  After receiving his first career start against Southeast Missouri State, Shaffer should be in line for more playing time this week.  He will need to make tackles all over the field to help shut down the Rodgers brothers.

 

Cincinnati will win if…

 

they can contain Jacquizz Rodgers.  You should have noticed a theme by now.  In 125 total offensive plays this season, ‘Quizz has touched the ball 54 times.  He is the focal point of this offense, bar none.  If Cincinnati can shut him down, the Oregon State offense will go with it.  Assuming the Bearcat offense can continue to light up the scoreboard facing a defense that seems ill equipped to stop them, the Bearcats should cruise to another victory. 

 

Oregon State will win if…

 

Reser Stadium is rocking.  On paper, this looks like it should be another easy Bearcats victory despite Oregon State’s #24 ranking in the Coaches Poll.  The big wild card, however, is playing in Corvallis.  Reser Stadium is a difficult place to play.  While the Bearcats had no problem playing their season opener at Rutgers, the energy was sucked out of the crowd quickly.  If Oregon State can hang on long enough to keep the crowd alive, then maybe they can spark a big play by the Beavers that leads to a victory. 

 

Prediction

If you cannot get to Tony Pike, you cannot stop the Bearcats’ offense.  Spreading the field through the air early and often, Cincinnati looks like they are practicing 7 on 7, finishing the half with over 250 passing yards and 24 points.  While the defense is a little shaky, they force two field goals and a turnover on their way to a 24-13 halftime lead.  Following a defensive stop by the Bearcats, the UC offense scores another touchdown to increase their lead to 18.  Now forced to be more aggressive through the air, the Oregon State offense is unable to sustain drives, mixing big plays with incompletion and interceptions.  Despite allowing a late touchdown, the Bearcats look sharp once again in victory.

 

Cincinnati 41, Oregon State 27

 

September 14, 2009

Southeast Missouri State Wrap-Up
By: Dan

In some games, there comes a point when the result is academic and it is time to call off the dogs.  Usually, though, that moment does not come in the first half.  But when Cincinnati took a 42-3 lead over Southeast Missouri State with 4:46 left in the half, it was time to put on the brakes.  On the Bearcats next offensive drive, starting quarterback Tony Pike was on the sideline.  Backup Zach Collaros led a scoring drive that ended with a 37 yard reception by Mardy Gilyard, which was his last play of the night.  Despite playing mostly reserves, Cincinnati still won the second half 21-0.  They cruised to a 70-3 victory.

Game Ball

WR Mardy Gilyard – Before the Bearcat offense even got on the field, it appeared a blowout was inevitable, thank to wide receiver Mardy Gilyard’s 53 yard punt return for a touchdown on what was just his second career punt return.  Gilyard was simply too much to handle for the SEMO defense.  He touched the ball just 9 times on the day, but ended with 4 touchdowns, including one on the ground, two through the air, and the punt return.  He became the first player since Maurice Jones-Drew at UCLA to record touchdowns on a run, a reception, and a punt return.  For the day, Gilyard caught 6 passes for 111 yards and 2 touchdowns.  His lone carry ended with a 1 yard touchdown.  He had a 32 yard kickoff return and a 53 yard punt return for a touchdown, giving him a grand total of 197 all-purpose yards.

Key Matchup Review

QB Zach Collaros v. QB Chazz Anderson – The supposed matchup between the two was based on the idea that they were competing for the backup quarterback job.  It seemed pretty clear, however, that Collaros is the number two man.  He took the first four series at quarterback after Pike left, leading the Bearcats on two touchdown drives.  Anderson followed for three series of mop-up duty.  While Collaros had some accuracy issues, including missing a wide open Jamar Howard on what would have been a long touchdown toss, he played well enough that his backup job is secure.  Despite being in for three series, Anderson was hardly allowed to throw the football, completing both his pass attempts for just 8 yards.  While the two will likely compete for the 2010 starting job next offseason, it seems clear that Collaros is the backup right now. 

Difference Making Play

19 Yard Touchdown Pass from Tony Pike to Jacob Ramsey – The Bearcats had an early 7-0 lead thanks to the Gilyard punt return, but the offense stalled on their first drive, throwing three consecutive incompletions.  Southeast Missouri responded with a 13 play field goal drive.  The Bearcats offense returned to the field and quickly moved the ball into SEMO territory.  On 2nd and 10, Tony Pike received a rare pressure by the Redhawk defense.  Evading the pressure, Pike found running back Jacob Ramsey, who alertly started downfield after being a safety valve initially.  Ramsey caught the ball and scooted seven yards into the end zone for a Bearcats touchdown.  The Bearcats put on a clinic for the rest of the half, with the Bearcats up 49-3 at halftime.

Breakout Performer

NG Brandon Mills – Before the season, one major concern of the defense was depth at nose tackle, where the backup for Derek Wolfe was completely unknown.  After his performance against both Rutgers and Southeast Missouri State, Mills is clearly a capable rotation nose tackle and could push for even more playing time.  The redshirt freshman from Colerain High School in Cincinnati has been all over the field this season, leading the team in tackles against the Redhawks.  Standing just 5’10”, Mills has exceptional quickness and solid girth given his lack of height.  While he is better suited for passing situations, Mills has been stout against the run and filled in capably when Derek Wolfe is not on the field. 

Expect to See More Of…

CB Chris Williams – Once again, the injury bug has hit starting free safety Drew Frey, who did not dress against Southeast Missouri.  Although it could have been a precautionary measure, Frey may or may not be back against Oregon State.  To start the game, Brad Jones slid from cornerback to safety while Cameron Cheetham started at corner.  The defense experimented with a number of other options in the defensive backfield, including Williams, Reuben Johnson, Wes Richardson, and Pat Lambert.  None particularly stood out, but the most talented of the group is Chris Williams.  A true freshman, Williams was the first four-star recruit to ever commit to the Bearcats.  Although he is still raw, Williams has played well on special teams thus far and should see the field more on defense, particularly if Frey misses significant action.

Other Notes

Tony Pike was nearly perfect again.  Despite starting the day with two dropped passes, Pike’s quarterback rating was actually higher this week than it was against Rutgers, and his 195.51 rating on the season is currently good for fourth in the country. 

Jacob Ramsey was clearly the man at running back this week.  He had all nine of his touches before Isaiah Pead got his first.  Ramsey was extremely effective with the ball, rushing for 65 yards on just 7 carries and catching 2 passes for 24 yards, including his 19 yard touchdown reception.

Marcus Barnett saw the field more often this week in five receiver sets.  In the past, the Bearcats have kept a running back and tight end on the field when they split five wide.  This week, Barnett entered the game in place of a tight end.  Given the numerous drops by tight ends, expect his role to increase.

Speaking of dropped passes by tight ends, Adrien Robinson looks like he is on his way to outside linebacker next year.  No one questions his athleticism, but he had a bad drop on the first pass thrown to him and bobbled the second before eventually hauling it in.  He has talent and could eventually be a good tight end, but it seems like he is better suited for the defense.

Despite playing the backups for most of the second half, the offensive line paved the way for 227 rushing yards while not giving up a single sack.  Once again, this looks like the best unit in the Big East.

Dorian Davis saw some action this week and played well.  The transfer from Tennessee should see his playing time increase in the coming weeks.

Dominique Battle had a very good game.  He is not afraid to lay a hit on a wide receiver. 

Patrick O’Donnell took over punting duties.  His first three kicks were solid, but he had a bad shank that traveled only 21 yards in his last attempt.  It remains to be seen who will punt against Oregon State, but so far the next Kevin Huber has not walked through the door.

-0

September 11, 2009

Southeast Missouri State Game Preview
By: Dan

This is a matchup between two teams coming off blowout victories.  Cincinnati won 47-15 over a highly regarded Rutgers team that many predicted to win the Big East; Southeast Missouri State whooped a formidable opponent in Quincy, a team that went 6-5 last year in NAIA play.  This should be a good old-fashioned good-one.

Southeast Missouri State Analysis

Sarcasm aside, any team that lights up the scoreboard the way Southeast Missouri did has to be taken somewhat seriously, no matter who their opponent was.  SEMO prefers to keep the ball on the ground, running 42 times for 282 yards and 6 touchdowns against the Hawks (that’s Quincy’s nickname – bet you didn’t know that one).  When they passed, they did it well throwing for 230 yards on just 19 attempts.  They also stymied the Quincy passing attack, holding them to just 63 yards on 27 attempts.  They did allow over 150 rushing yards, an indicator that the Bearcats could eschew their normal passing attack for a more grind it out approach.  And by grind it out approach, I mean big runs by Isaiah Pead, Jacob Ramsey, and if healthy, John Goebel. 

Key Matchups

QB Zach Collaros v. QB Chazz Anderson – If the game goes according to plan for the Bearcats, both backup quarterbacks should see action this week.  Anderson started in place of the injured Tony Pike last season, but Zach Collaros was the first man off the bench against Rutgers.  This game might turn into a live audition for the two quarterbacks to become the next man in from here on out.

Cincinnati v. Louisville – It’s just a week into the season and the Bearcats can already make an indirect connection to a future opponent.  Last week, Louisville beat Indiana State 30-10.  The week prior, Indiana State lost to Quincy 26-20.  Quincy followed up their victory by being dominated by Southeast Missouri State 72-3.  No one will argue that Indiana State is a quality team; they have won just a single game this decade.  So Louisville’s 20 point victory, which included a 7-3 deficit at the end of the first quarter, was really an embarrassment.  If Cincinnati can put the beat-down on the Redhawks as expected, then it brings up a major question at how weak Louisville is this year.  If SEMO can keep it close, however, then maybe it’s too early to write off the Cardinals.

ILB Andre Revels v. RB Henry Harris – I should put at least one real matchup on this, right?  Andre Revels was solid in run support last week and will need to be solid again, facing a strong running offense.  Harris is the starting running back and led the team in rushing last week, putting up 88 of the team’s 282 yards on the ground.  If Revels can keep Harris in check, then SEMO will struggle to move the ball.

Bearcat in the Spotlight

ILB Marcus Waugh – If there is any concern for the Bearcats this week, it is the Southeast Missouri State rushing attack that piled up 282 yards against Quincy last week.  Although they only allowed 50 yards rushing, the Bearcats defense looked somewhat susceptible to the run, particularly on the opening drive.  Waugh saw most of his action that drive and struggled.  While it remains to be seen if the senior will keep his starting job for the home opener, if he does he must play better in his second game at linebacker than he did in his debut.

Keep an Eye On

RB Darrin Williams – The Bearcats tried to unleash their diminutive running back against Rutgers.  Unfortunately, his performance was highly unimpressive.  He was the intended receiver on Tony Pike’s screen pass that was intercepted, one of the few mistakes by the first team offense.  Most of his touches came with the second stringers, but he did not make the most of them.  His numbers were an embarrassing 5 yards on 6 carries, plus a catch for 2 yards.  Williams comes from the same breed of running back as Isaiah Pead, but did not show Pead’s explosiveness against Rutgers.  If he wants to see meaningful carries in the future, he needs to show something this week against the Redhawks. 

Cincinnati will win if…

they do not completely overlook SEMO.  Realistically, the Bearcats should have no problem walking over Southeast Missouri State.  Although the Redhawks dominated their season opening victory, there should be enough of a talent gap between #23 Cincinnati and NAIA Quincy for the Bearcats to win with ease.

Southeast Missouri State will win if…

swine flu strikes the Bearcats. 

Prediction

Despite not applying the gas at full force at any point in the game, Cincinnati cruises to victory.  Lots of players see playing time, including some younger players getting serious action.  While no one in particular puts up huge numbers, the team as a whole dominates.

Cincinnati 48, Southeast Missouri State 6

 

September 9, 2009

Rutgers Wrap-Up
By: Dan

Opening their respective seasons against in conference play, both Cincinnati and Rutgers had the opportunity to make a statement in their first game.  Cincinnati’s opening drive had a statement: our offense is every bit as explosive as advertised.  The Rutgers offense responded with a statement of their own on a twenty play drive that lasted over ten minutes: we are willing to roll our sleeves up and play physical football.  Over the next two quarters, however, Cincinnati then sent a very loud and clear message to Rutgers and everyone else in the Big East: we are the team to beat. 

Game Balls

The Offensive Line – Tony Pike may have been the Big East Offensive Player of the Week, but he a lot of credit to the offensive line.  Facing a Rutgers team known for pressuring the quarterback, the offensive line kept Pike from being so much as looked at funny by a Rutgers defender.  Save a missed blitz pickup on George Johnson resulting in a sack, Pike was rarely hurried on his throws, even while standing in the pocket for what seemed like an eternity.  That is yet to mention the team’s 168 rushing yards, either.  While the Rutgers O-Line got all the hype, the Bearcats offensive line looked like it very well may be the top unit in the Big East. 

Key Matchup Review

OLB Curtis Young vs. OT Anthony Davis – In the game preview, I said the matchup between Curtis Young and Anthony Davis was one of the most important in the game.  Flash forward to the fifth play of the third quarter.  Tom Savage entered the game at quarterback and began to move the Rutgers offense like they were actually there to play a football game.  Four plays for 35 yards left Rutgers threatening in Bearcats territory.  One hard cut by Curtis Young, which left Davis stuck off balanced, created a ten yard sack.  Rutgers punted three plays later.  A 92-yard touchdown drive put the final nail in the coffin.  Young ended with 11 tackles on the day, including 3 for loss, 1 sack, and 2 quarterback hurries.

Difference Making Play

SS Aaron Webster – With just under nine minutes left in the second quarter, Rutgers was driving in Cincinnati territory trailing by only 3.  Facing a third down and eleven, senior quarterback Dom Natele dropped back to pass.  Feeling pressure from backup defensive end Dan Giordano, Natele forced a pass which was intercepted by the lone returning starter on the Bearcat defense, Aaron Webster.  Cincinnati would score a touchdown on each of their next three possessions, while Natele threw two more interceptions on his next four passes on his way to the bench.   

Breakout Performer

TE/QB Travis Kelce – Football is a copycat sport; a gimmick by one team suddenly becomes everyone’s favorite new trick.  Right now, the Wildcat is the trick under everyone’s sleeve.  It is no shock that Brian Kelly, known for his forward thinking offense, would introduce it this season.  What was surprising was who he put to operate the offense.  After being recruited to Cincinnati as a quarterback, Travis Kelce recently moved to tight end, but still got to see his first snaps as a Bearcat under center.  At 6’5”, 245 lbs., Kelce has a huge frame and possesses solid speed for his size.  He showed it against Rutgers, in a Tim Tebow-esque running package.  In 3 red zone carries, Kelce was almost perfect, running for 18 yards and 2 touchdowns.  Expect to see more of that over the course of the season, but don’t be fooled if Kelce passes the ball as well.  He is a natural quarterback and Kelly will not be afraid to keep defenses honest with his arm.

Expect to See More Of…

OLB Demetrius Jones – Jones was a surprising scratch from the starting lineup in favor of senior Craig Carey.  It will be even more surprising if he is kept from starting against Southeast Missouri State.  Although he made a few mistakes, Jones made plays all over the field.  He showed great athleticism and solid ability in coverage, recording an interception in the 2nd quarter.  He was also shockingly effective in run support.  Despite being very undersized for a linebacker, Jones got to the ball quickly and was able to get through blockers to make plays.  He ended the game with seven tackles, including 2.5 behind the line of scrimmage. 

Other Notes

Despite having 30 fewer yards rushing on an equal number of carries, Isaiah Pead looked much better than Jacob Ramsey.  Take away Ramsey’s 62-yard run and his stat-line was 7 carries for 15 yards.  Pead should keep getting carries, but it will be interesting to see what the team does once John Goebel returns to the lineup.

One-time freshman sensation Marcus Barnett hardly saw the field.  Coach Kelly attempted to move him to cornerback in the spring but he returned to wide receiver this fall, only to be beaten out for the starting job by Armon Binns.

Craig Carey and Marcus Waugh both started at linebacker and contributed to the Rutgers opening scoring drive.  Both players seemed a bit slow and unaware at linebacker in their first years at the position.  Carey, who switched to linebacker from quarterback via defensive end, took a number of bad angles that led to big games.  Waugh, a natural fullback, looked lost often on the first drive. 

Aaron Webster lived up to his title as the biggest hitter in the Big East, laying out Rutgers WR Tim Brown.  Both players bounced up after contact, but it was one of the loudest hits you will hear.

Punting was not much of an issue in this contest, but Jake Rogers put on a lackluster performance.  Yes, both his kicks landed inside the twenty, but placing the ball on the ten and sixteen when both kicks were in Rutgers territory leaves a little to be desired.  Either that, or I have gotten very greedy watching Kevin Huber.

Do you think Rutgers spent a little extra time preparing to face Mardy Gilyard returning kicks?  On 3 returns, the Scarlet Knights held the All-American to 46 yards.  Maybe they should have focused on stopping the offense a little more, instead.

September 4, 2009

Rutgers Game Preview
By: Dan

Finally…college football is back!  Although the season officially starts Thursday night, the season begins for the Bearcats this Monday at 4:00 PM, as they travel to Piscataway, New Jersey to take on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights.  Cincinnati will defend their Big East Championship in the undercard of Monday night’s heavyweight bouts, with Florida State v. Miami taking the marquee in an intense rivalry based on their mutual passion for missing last second field goals.  While the game may not be primetime, its implications certainly will be.  The winner of this matchup will hold the early edge in the wide open Big East, including holding the all-powerful head-to-head tiebreaker.

Rutgers Analysis

The Scarlet Knights enter the game with the top offensive line in the Big East and one of the top units in the nation.  All five starters return from last year, led by a potential first-round draft pick in left tackle Anthony Davis.  While the offensive line is a known commodity, the rest of the offense is in question.  The fight to replace Mike Teel as the team’s starting quarterback was won by Dom Natele, but Jabu Lovelace will see the field, as well.  Their top three running backs return, but none stepped up to replace the enormous shoes of Ray Rice last season.  Top wide receiver Kenny Britt departs, which is a significant blow, but Tim Brown is a proven vertical threat.  Starting opposite him will be true freshman Mohamed Sanu, a lightly regarded true freshman who has wowed coached since he arrived on campus.  The defense returns six starters and should be solid again, as it has been each of the last three years.  Safety Courtney Greene departed, which will be a huge loss, along with leading tackler Kevin Malast.  Senior Ryan D’Imperio will be asked to fill the void in terms of both tackles and in leadership.  The bigger issue may be along the defensive line.  Despite being tied for first in Big East play with 21 sacks, Rutgers had far and away their worst total in four years, dropping from 41 sacks to 29 for the season.  They will need someone to step up if they want their defense to strike fear in opposing quarterbacks, but there is no clear candidate to do so.  George Johnson might be the best candidate, but he recorded just two sacks last season. 

Key Matchups

OLB Curtis Young v. OT Anthony Davis – Big things are expected of Curtis Young this year, now playing at outside linebacker in the 3-4.  Unfortunately, he has quite possibly his toughest test all season in week one, going up against Anthony Davis.  Davis is a mammoth left tackle with good mobility for his size.  Although he was demoted briefly to second string during training camp, no one doubts Davis’s ability to protect the quarterback’s blind side, whoever it might be.  Young has the unenviable task of trying to avoid Davis and get to the quarterback.  If he does, it could be an omen for a big season by Young.  If not, it could be a long day for the Bearcats

FS Drew Frey v. WR Tim Brown – The Rutgers’ offense is based on a strong running game complimented by a downfield passing attack.  Last year, Mike Mickens and DeAngelo Smith neutralized the Scarlet Knights’ top two receivers to the tune of 7 catches for 88 yards, helping hold Rutgers to 10 points in the Bearcats victory.  With both Mickens and Smith now playing for the Dallas Cowboys, pressure will be turned up on the safeties to prevent the big play.  Aaron Webster is an in-the-box safety, putting most of it on the shoulders of third-year freshman Drew Frey.  His main focus will be Brown, who had 565 yards and 6 touchdowns on just 27 catches last season.  If he can keep Brown from breaking loose, the defense might hold serve against the Rutgers offense.

DC Bob Diaco v. OCs Kyle Flood and Kirk Ciarrocca – What better way for a new coordinator to prove his worth in his first game than by playing a league rival?  How about three new coordinators trying to do it?  Bob Diaco coached linebackers last season at Virginia and brings their 3-4 defense with him.  After John McNulty left for greener pastures in the NFL, Rutgers promoted from within, calling offensive line coach and quarterbacks coach up to co-coordinate the offense.  A coordinator coaching in his first game could make an impact in one of two ways.  On one hand, there is no film to scout on his offense or defense.  While Diaco’s Virginia connection likely caused Rutgers to focus on the Cavalier defenses of past, it is unknown how closely the two will resemble the Bearcats D.  The same applies to the Rutgers coaches on offense.  On the other hand, the coaches may have struggled to implement their side of the ball during camp and are inexperienced at taking the point for in-game adjustments.  Whichever coordinator is better able to use his inexperience to his advantage as opposed to a detriment is likely to have the upper hand in the season opener.

Bearcat in the Spotlight

QB Tony Pike – The last we saw of Pike was a disappointing four interception performance in the Orange Bowl.  That game highlighted Pike’s biggest problem: inconsistency.  In some games, Pike does his best Peyton Manning impersonation, like against Miami (OH) and Pittsburgh last year, where he went 46 for 56 passing with 6 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.  At other times, he is more reminiscent of Kyle Boller, such as his clunkers against Virginia Tech and Connecticut (26-60, 2 TDs, 5 INTs).  This year, Pike holds the keys to a potentially explosive offense that might need to carry an inexperienced defense which will likely struggle through inconsistencies of its own.  If the Bearcats are going to defend their Big East title, they cannot afford to have their offense sputter due to inconsistent quarterback play.

Keep an Eye On

OLB Demetrius Jones – Jones is starting his first game since the 2007 season opener against Georgia Tech.  The only difference is last time he was starting at quarterback for Notre Dame.  Jones is very much an unknown commodity at linebacker.  On one hand, he is an outstanding athlete and was able to beat out solid competition for the starting role.  On the other hand, he has never played the position.  Last year’s, DE Connor Barwin opened the season with 2 sacks after switching from tight end.  If Jones can make an impact anywhere close to that, the Bearcats should be in good shape.

Cincinnati will win if…

they can pressure the quarterback.  Success in a 3-4 is predicated on getting after the quarterback.  All five starting offensive lineman return from last year’s unit, which allowed less than two sacks per game last year.  In fact, Rutgers has not given up more than two per game since 2002, Greg Schiano’s second season at the helm.  Even if they don’t get sacks, the Bearcats must pressure the quarterback, whether he is Dom Natele, Jabu Lovelace, or Tom Savage.  All three are inexperienced and will likely make mistakes with defenders breathing down their necks.

Rutgers will win if…

they can force turnovers.  Fumbles and interceptions were the Bearcats bugaboo last year.  The offense cannot afford to put the defense in bad situations, whether that is giving them a short field to work with or not giving them time to rest.  In this game, a conservative offensive approach is likely best for the Bearcats. 

Prediction

This is one of the toughest games to project because there are so many unknowns.  In my eyes, the game is a coin flip right now.  But if I have to project the game:

The Bearcats get a couple of early touchdowns thanks to a strong passing attack and an attacking defense that rattles quarterback Dom Natele early.  The Cincinnati offense begins to stall as the teams exchange field goals to bring the score to 17-3 midway through the 2nd quarter.  A coverage miscommunication between Aaron Webster and Dominique Battle leads to a long Rutgers touchdown.  The half ends 17-10.  The teams exchange punts for parts of the third quarter before a methodical running drive by Rutgers that ends in a San San Te field goal.  The Bearcats offense wakes up and begins moving the ball down the field.  Unfortunately, their red zone woes continue from last season, forcing a short Jake Rogers field goal attempt, which is missed.  After Rutgers drives for another field goal to make it a 17-16 game, the offense comes out passing again.  This time, however, Pike misfires around midfield for a Rutgers interception.  With the ball on the wrong side of the 50 yard line, the Bearcats defense breaks again, allowing another Scarlet Knights touchdown.  Now down for the first time in the game late in the fourth quarter, the offense all but completely abandons the run and struggles to consistently complete passes.  After two turnovers on downs, the 2008 Big East Champions find themselves in an early hole to defend their title.

Rutgers, 23-17

(Chances are the game will be nothing like that, but it is more entertaining than a random score guess.)

 

August 27, 2009

Players to Watch
By: Dan

In any given season, there are a number of players whose individual success will serve as a barometer for the team as a whole. Sometimes those players are obvious, like the starting quarterback. Some players, though, are further under the radar at the start of the season, but need to flourish in order for the team to thrive. Given the lack of returning starters, the Cincinnati Bearcats have a number of key players who are relative unknowns this season, but here are five players to watch for the 2009 season:

Isaiah Pead, RB
I almost hesitate to include Pead, given he is the first name any prognosticator picks as a unknown player who could emerge for the Bearcats. Still, they are choosing him with good reason. Pead made the most of his 30 carries last season, rushing for 194 yards (6.5 YPC). Expect his carries to increase dramatically this year. Pead showed great explosiveness and big play ability as a freshman. Taken from the Maurice Jones-Drew mold, Pead is a better fit for the spread than upperclassmen Jacob Ramsey and John Goebel. Unforuntately, it may be difficult to steal away too many carries from that duo, both of whom topped 600 rushing yards last season. The beginning of the season will be a strong indicator of his role this season. If he gets a lot of touches, or simply takes advantage of limited opportunities, then expect his role to increase over the course of the season, possibly becoming a starter by season’s end. If he struggles, he will likely be little more than a change of pace back for Goebel and Ramsey. For the Bearcats, as goes Pead so could the running game. While Goebel and Ramsey are both solid backs, having a dangerous threat on the ground is what the offense needs to take the running game to the next level.

Adrien Robinson, TE
While Pead is a commonly linked with the success of the Bearcats’ running game, nothing hinges on the success of Adrien Robinson this season. Rather, he is a player to watch simply because his amazing athletic ability. As reported by ESPN.com's Brian Bennett, Robinson is a physical specimin, at 6'4'', 244 lbs, who also happens to run a 4.55 40 yard dash. Oh, and he had a standing broad jump of 11'5" to boot. To put that in perspective, zero players at the NFL Combine jumped further. To summarize that performance in one word: inhuman. However, he is currently competing with Ben Guidugli and Kazeem Ali, both of whom played extensively last year, combining for 30 catches and 353 yards. Compare that to Robinson's total of 1 catch for 12 yards, and it is easy to see why Robinson might not see much action at tight end this year. Given his athleticism, he is still a player to keep an eye on whenever he is on the field.

Derek Wolfe, NT
In the NFL, every good 3-4 defense is anchored by a great nose tackle. The Patriots have Vince Wilfork. The Steelers have Casey Hampton. The Bearcats may very well have Derek Wolfe. Despite being a true sophomore with limited experience, Wolfe is being counted on for big things by the Bearcats this season. After an outstanding spring, Wolfe could very well be one of the breakout players in all the Big East. At 6'5'', 302 lbs., Wolfe has the size and strength to occupy blockers to free up space for the inside linebackers to make plays, but also has the athleticism to make plays in the backfield. After losing both starters at defensive tackle, including 3-time All-Big East performer Terrill Byrd, Wolfe has huge shoes to fill on the inside. He seems up to the challenge; not only will Wolfe fill Byrd's shoes, but he will also step into his old number, 95. Hopefully for the Bearcats it works as well for Wolfe as it did for Byrd.

Dominique Battle, CB
During a practice in the week leading up to arguably the biggest game in Bearcats’ football history, the de-facto Big East championship game against Pittsburgh, 2007 first-team all-American Mike Mickens went down with a knee injury. Although he did not start, true freshman Dominique Battle filled a significant portion of the void and hardly missed a beat. Against Syracuse, where he saw his most action, the Bearcats defense allowed only 59 passing yards in a game they led throughout. For his efforts, Battle was named UC's newcomer of the year. This year, Battle is must fill in at Mickens’s old starting role full time. Though WR Marucs Barnett spent much of the spring at cornerback, it appears that he might be back at wideout, indicating that Battle is fully entrenched in the position. Battle compares favorably to Mickens: they both are fast corners with good height, but a somewhat slender frame. Like Mickens, Battle is alsol a physical corner who should be adept in both man and zone coverage, providing versatility in Bob Diaco's new 3-4 scheme. The Bearcats can only hope that Battle's career can emulate Mickens (two-time all-American, four-time all-Big East), as well.

Drew Frey, FS
Flash back to the fourth game of the 2008 season. The Bearcats traveled to an upset minded Akron and escaped with a narrow 17-15 victory. News after the game is about the health of starting quarterback Tony Pike, who left the game with a broken arm. All but forgotten is the health of starting safety Drew Frey, who also left the game with a broken arm. Pike would return to start three games later against Connecticut. Frey did not play again all season. This year, Frey will be starting at free safety from day one opposite the team's lone returning starter, Aaron Webster. The combination of the two provide the Cincinnati defense a glimpse of stability on an otherwise unknown unit. The main question is whether or not Frey can stay healthy. He redshirted his first year due to injury and was given a sixth year of eligibility after last year's injury. Thus, Frey is one of the most experienced freshmen in the nation. That experience will be useless, however, unless he can stay on the field. At the free safety position, Frey will be counted on to clean up the mistakes his inexperienced teammates will make in front of him. Having an intelligent, dependable veteran in that position will be vital to the success of the defense, making Frey one of the most important players on the team in 2009.

August 19, 2009

Camp Questions
By: Dan

Every team has some questions that need to be addressed over the course of fall camp. If those question areas are appropriately answered, then the team often thrives. If not, areas of weakness are often exposed. The Cincinnati Bearcats are no different. With only one starter returning on defense, the Bearcats have their fair share of questions, but not all of them come from the defensive side of the ball.

Can the running game get on track?

After the Bearcats lost their top three rushers in 2007, the running game was a major question mark coming into last season. The top returnee was Jacob Ramsey, who ran for 362 yards but on a meager 3.8 yards per carry. Ramsey started the first eleven games of 2008 on his way to leading the team in rushing, but managed only 664 yards on 4.4 ypc and was all too often stuffed behind the line of scrimmage. His eventual replacement in the starting lineup was John Goebel. A versatile receiver out of the backfield, Goebel caught 26 passes and ran for 607 yards, as well. The Ramsey-Goebel combination, however, was only good enough to carry the Bearcats to 95th in rushing offense last season. To put that in perspective, that was a notch below Texas Tech, who ran the football 138 fewer times than Cincinnati. The lack of a consistent run game caused a number of problems, particularly in closing leads in the fourth quarter – as anyone who watched the team’s collapse against West Virginia can attest. During that fourth quarter, Cincinnati ran the ball on all nine plays in an effort to milk the clock and conserve their thirteen point lead. The end result: 26 yards and one first down. The Bearcats needed overtime to win the game. This year, both running backs return, as does true sophomore Isaiah Pead, who averaged 6.5 yards per run last year. Ramsey is a big, power back who is better suited for a more traditional offense. Goebel has similar size, but is deceptively fast. Although he rarely attempts to turn the corner, Goebel is one of the fastest players on the Cincinnati roster. Pead is a diminutive burner who is suited perfectly for the spread. He could break out this year and bring the running game with him. Redshirt freshman Darrin Williams is also a candidate to see playing time. At 5’7”, Williams makes quarterback Tony Pike look like Gheorghe Mureson (no seriously - they look similar), but he is very quick and is seeing time with the first team offense as Pead and Goebel are dinged up with injuries. Overall, the talent is there at running back and on the offensive line for the running game to be vastly improved. Working against them is Head Coach and play-caller Brian Kelly. Too often last season, Kelly seemed to abandon the running game completely, leaving the offense predictable. Against Connecticut, there were only 7 runs called the entire game to running backs, despite averaging seven yards a pop on them. If the running game is going to rebound in ’09, Coach Kelly must commit fully to the run game, while the running backs must step up with their opportunities.

How will the defensive line perform without Connor Barwin, Terrill Byrd, Adam Hoeppel, and Lemonte Nelms?

Losing the entire starting defensive line is a scary proposition, especially when it includes your Team MVP (Barwin) and a former All-American (Byrd). But that is the situation the Bearcats face this season; gone from the 2008 D-Line is 191 tackles, 46 of which occurred behind the line of scrimmage, including 26 sacks. To summarize, those are four gigantic shoes to fill. Replacing them is a talented group that will need to anchor the new 3-4 defense. The likely starters are Derek Wolfe, John Hughes, and Ricardo Mathews, with Alex Daniels as the top backup. All four have experience and have flashed considerable potential, but have yet to get their opportunity. Mathews, a senior, has played in 36 games, making him the veteran of the group. He has solid frame for a five-technique end and should be stout against the run. Hughes is a redshirt sophomore who saw significant action last year. He lacks ideal height for defensive end at 6’2”, but was disruptive in the backfield last year. He could see time inside at nose as well. The likely starter in the middle is Derek Wolfe, a true sophomore. Wolfe has great size and strength to anchor the line effectively. Unfortunately, the other candidates at nose are completely green and likely need more time to develop before they are ready to see meaningful snaps. Minnesota transfer Alex Daniels will see significant playing time this year, but it most likely will be as the top backup on the defensive line. A highly touted recruit coming out of Columbus Brookhaven High School, Daniels started his career at Minnesota on defense before switching to running back as a sophomore, where he ran for 309 yards. Daniels is extremely athletic for a defensive lineman and will likely see the field as a pass rushing threat. Weighing only 259 lbs., Daniels is not a typical 3-4 defensive end who will occupy blockers, but he will provide a solid change of pace from the much bigger Mathews and Hughes. While this group might do a solid job in replacing last year’s starters, depth is a much bigger concern. Outside the top four, the line is completely unproven. Despite Brian Kelly’s “Next Man In” mantra, an injury to the defensive line could be devastating.

How much of a drop off will there be on special teams?

Last season, Cincinnati had the top ranked special teams unit according to Phil Steele’s rankings. A major reason for the number one position was All-American punter Kevin Huber. In each of the last two seasons, the Bearcats have been first in the NCAA in net punting, a feat that requires good coverage units and great punting. The loss of Kevin Huber’s left foot may be the single biggest loss to the Bearcats this offseason. The position is completely up for grabs, with starting kicker Jake Rogers the current favorite. The punting game, which had been a major weapon for the Bearcats in each of the last two years, may now be a weakness. Also affecting the special teams are the losses of Connor Barwin and Brandon Underwood to the NFL. Although Barwin did not participate on every special teams unit (as he likely will with the Texans), his impact was certainly felt during the three punts he blocked. His rare athleticism made him a threat to block a kick each time the opposing punter entered the game. Underwood made his presence known as an outstanding gunner of the punt team, but was a contributor on all the special teams’ units. Despite the presence of the Big East Special Teams Player for both ’08 (Returner Mardy Gilyard) and ’07 (Huber), Underwood was named the Bearcats Special Teams Player of the Year. The team does bring back the Gilyard, Jake Rogers, and punt returner D.J. Wood, so the drop off should not be catastrophic. Still, there will be a decline on special teams – the question is, how dramatic will it be?

 

August 12, 2009

Camp Battles
By: Dan

With only 9 starters back from last year’s Big East Championship squad, a number of starting jobs will be up for grabs at this year’s training camp. Despite having only one returning starter on defense, there are fewer starting jobs open than would be expected. Even though he did not start last year, Andre Revels played significantly at inside linebacker and has a spot on lockdown. Additionally, Drew Frey, John Hughes and Ricardo Matthews all have starting experience and will be starting come September 7th. The top position battles at this year’s camp are:

Wide Receiver – Last year, Mardy Gilyard, Dominic Goodman, and Marcus Barnett all returned as starters from the 2007 season and played well in 2008, with both Gilyard and Goodman topping 1,000 receiving yards. Mardy Gilyard is back and has received his fare share of preseason accolades, but he is the only starter returning at wide receiver. Sure-handed Goodman graduated and Barnett switched to cornerback, although he may see time in four receiver sets, as well. True sophomore D.J. Woods should take one of the positions after seeing the field as a punt returner last year. Finding a possession receiver to fill the third starting job will be up for grabs. The current favorite is junior college transfer Jamar Howard. A four-star recruit, Howard has the skills to flourish, but has yet to do anything on this level. His main challenger will be Armon Binns. Binns started one game last year, but caught only one pass. Spring star Danny Milligan is a possibility, but at 5’9”, he is best suited for the slot, where D.J. Woods will likely occupy his time.

Offensive Line – Chris Jurek, Jason Kelce and Jeff Linkenbach all return to shore up the left side of the line. Both of the positions on the right side of the line are open, however. Alex Hoffman will likely take one of the starting jobs after starting two games last year, filling in for both Jurek and Kelce when they missed time with injuries. Sam Griffin may take the other position after starting the season opener last year. Still, he will have to hold off C.J. Cobb, Randy Martinez, and Craig Parmenter for the starting job. Look for Hoffman to be starting at right tackle, with Cobb, Griffin, or Martinez starting at right guard.

Outside Linebacker – After switching to a 3-4, both outside linebacker positions are up for grabs. Competing for the jobs is a mix of converted quarterbacks and defensive ends. Curtis Young is the favorite to take one of the spots. After recording four sacks last year in limited playing time, Young is the most viable pass rushing threat and should fill the void left by Connor Barwin. Craig Carey, Robbie Armstrong, and Demetrius Jones will be battling for playing time on the opposite side. Carey saw some action at defensive end last year after being converted from quarterback. The veteran of the group, Carey is a strong leader and very intelligent, but his ability in space certainly will be questioned. Despite being in his fourth year at linebacker, Armstrong has not seen significant playing time. Still, he is the only one of the group to have any coverage experience. The wild card is the former starting quarterback at Notre Dame, Demetrius Jones. After failing to claim the quarterback job at Cincinnati last season, Jones was moved to outside linebacker this spring in an effort to get his athleticism on the field. While he is certainly the fastest of the group, Jones is also far and away the least experienced. Expect to see all three on the field significantly, with the senior Craig Carey as the official starter.

Inside Linebacker – Outside of safety Aaron Webster, no defensive player has more experience than senior Andre Revels. A local product from Colerain High School, Revels will be a starter at one of the inside positions and is a candidate to be named captain. Starting alongside him will either be senior Marcus Waugh or true sophomore J.K. Shaffer. Waugh has seen action at both fullback and on the defensive line, but was switched to linebacker in the 3-4. At 5’11”, 270 lbs., Waugh projects as a hard-nosed interior defender, but may lack the speed to be strong in coverage, where his main competitor for the job holds a significant edge. Shaffer was one of a select few true freshman to see the field last season, playing in twelve games. His role should increase significantly this year, possibly pushing him into the starting role.

Cornerback – When cornerback Mike Mickens went down at the end of last season, both Dominique Battle and Brad Jones filled the void. This year, the two will compete for the position starting opposite Marcus Barnett. The senior Jones is a fundamentally sound cornerback. He recorded two interceptions as the nickelback last season, but may lack the top end speed to thrive as a full-time starter. A true sophomore, Battle is faster and more fluid in coverage, but is not as physical as Jones. He filled in very well for Mickens on his way to becoming the newcomer of the year for the Big East Champions. Both are good players and should see the field significantly, but I expect Battle to emerge as the starter for the season opener.

Dan works as an intern for Football Outsiders.  Visit their website at FootballOutsiders.com.

August 4, 2009

Position Changes
By: Dan

Dating back to his days at Grand Valley State, Brian Kelly has been known as a savvy recruiter with an uncanny ability to convert players to different positions and watch them flourish. The prime example is Joe Staley, who was recruited as a tight end before being asked to bulk up and play tackle. Staley went on to be a first round pick and is the current starting left tackle for the San Francisco 49ers. Last year, Kelly pulled the rabbit out of the hat once again, this time with tight end Connor Barwin. After a scintillating pro day performance, Barwin was switched to defensive end. The trick worked, as Barwin was named the team MVP for the Big East Champions and was selected 46th overall by the Houston Texans.

This year, Coach Kelly will attempt to work his magic, this time with Marcus Barnett. After catching for 862 yards and a Bearcat record 13 receiving touchdowns as a redshirt freshman, Barnett suffered a horrible sophomore slump. Struggling with drops, Barnett mustered a mere 277 yards receiving and only 1 touchdown. Despite the loss of steady wideout Dominic Goodman, Barnett was converted to cornerback in the spring. He has good height and quickness for the position, but his lack of bulk is a major concern. Nicknamed “Bones” for his skeleton-like frame, Barnett lacked physicality as a receiver. If he is not physical enough for wide receiver, how will he hold up in run support? Still, Barnett performed well enough in the spring that he likely has one of the starting cornerback positions secured.

Perhaps the bigger name switching positions this year is Demetrius Jones. You may remember Jones as the starting quarterback for Notre Dame in the 2007 season opener. Jones was benched following the Irish’s 3 point performance against Georgia Tech and subsequently transferred to Cincinnati. Jones struggled to regain his accuracy and velocity following shoulder surgery, preventing him from seeing significant action at QB. In an effort to get Jones’s athleticism on the field as much as possible, Kelly moved Jones to outside linebacker in the Bearcats new 3-4 look this spring. While Jones is certainly a talented athlete, he is lacking any experience in the intricacies of playing defense. Interestingly, Jones alluded to The Cincinnati Enquirer that the move was a temporary switch and he planned on playing quarterback. That notion was quickly suppressed by Coach Kelly, who said “his only other options would be to play another sport.”

Jones is not the only former quarterback playing outside linebacker. In the spring of 2007, Craig Carey was in a tight battle with Dustin Grutza for the Bearcats starting quarterback position. After being beat out by Grutza and the arrival of Wake Forest transfer Ben Mauk, Carey found himself as the third string quarterback. Blessed with great size and deceptive athleticism, Carey was thrown onto kickoff coverage and made an immediate impact, finishing the year with 11 special teams tackles. Carey was converted to defensive end last year and will stand up this year at outside linebacker in the 3-4. He will see action in the linebacker rotation this year.

In Brian Kelly’s spread offense, the fullback makes only the occasional appearance. Thus, senior fullback Marcus Waugh was switched to inside linebacker. At 5’11”, Waugh has subpar height for the position but makes up for it in strength. Waugh is a solid 270 lbs. and recorded 37 repetitions of the 225 lbs. bench press. To put that in perspective, no linebacker at this year’s NFL combine put the bar up more than 30 times. Waugh is competing with J.K. Shaffer for one of the starting inside linebacker positions and even if he is unable to secure that spot, he still should see time as the goal line fullback.

With the switch to a 3-4, a number of defensive players will be switching to spots that better fit in the new scheme. Curtis Young recorded 4 sacks and 8.5 tackles for loss as a backup defensive end last year but will be move to linebacker this year. He is the favorite to fill the void as the main pass rushing threat at outside linebacker. Two defensive tackles, Ricardo Matthews and John Hughes, will move outside this year to five-technique defensive ends. Both started the season opener against Eastern Kentucky and performed well the rest of the year as backups. Only a redshirt freshman last year, Hughes is a breakout candidate if he can hold off Alex Daniels for a starting spot.

Dan works as an intern for Football Outsiders.  Visit their website at FootballOutsiders.com.