LSU Blog

September 30, 2010

LSU-West Virginia Recap
by LSUBarney

Contact LSUBarney on e-mail at orphun@gmail.com or follow LSUBarney on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/lsubarney.

Last week I wrote about hidden yards and how LSU is winning football games based on interception and punt returns.  Those hidden yards worked both for and against LSU in the West Virginia game.
 
Patrick Peterson took back two punts – one 26 yards and the other 60 yards for touchdown – that helped propel the Tigers to a 17-0 first half lead.  This happened despite the fact that LSU only had 3 first downs in the first half and under 100 yards of total offense. Special teams was perhaps the difference in the game not just in the return game, but also in the field goal department.  West Virginia missed one field goal and had another blocked, while the Tigers Josh Jasper hit both field goals he attempted.
 
Penalty yards worked against LSU throughout the game as the team was penalized a whopping 12 times for 120 yards.  There were numerous mishaps on both sides of the ball that both killed drives and kept the West Virginia offense on the field.  In fact, West Virginia’s second touchdown was aided by a facemask call.
 
Overall, the thing that surprised me the most about this game was just how much better, stronger, and faster LSU was than West Virginia.  The Mountaineers were outmanned at just about every position on the field.  But again, LSU mistakes and poor offensive play turned a blowout into an unnecessarily close game.
 
The Tigers get back to SEC play against Tennessee this week in another game the Tigers should win.  Tennessee will play good defense against LSU, but should have problems moving the football on the Tigers. The schedule was again very kind to LSU in September.  Les Miles hasn’t lost a September game since 2006, a 7-3 loss at Auburn.  In closing, here’s the stat of the day, one that defines the 2nd half of the Les Miles era at LSU:
 
LSU’s September record under Les Miles 2008-2010 – 12-0
October/November record 2008-2009 – 9-7
 
Let’s hope September carries over to the rest of the season, because it hasn’t lately.

September 23, 2010

Hidden Yards the Secret to LSU's Success
by LSUBarney
 
Contact LSUBarney on e-mail at orphun@gmail.com or follow LSUBarney on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/lsubarney.

Sure, LSU has been outgained in 7 of its last 8 football games.  But check out some stats that aren’t often reported, specifically starting field position.  The numbers are stunning:
 
LSU – average starting field position LSU 46
UNC – UNC 23
UNC best field position to start drive - UNC 46
0 of 17 drives started in LSU territory
 
LSU – average starting field position LSU 32
Vandy – Vandy 29
Vandy best field position to start drive - LSU 48
1 of 12 drives started in LSU territory
 
LSU – average starting field position MSU 48
Mississippi St – MSU 18
MSU best field position to start drive - MSU 32
0 out of 10 drives started in LSU territory
 
If you’re keeping score, opponents have started 1 in 39 drives in LSU territory. That's unreal and probably unprecedented through 3 games in LSU history.  Defense & Special Teams are creating a short field for us and more importantly are keeping the opposition pinned.
 
If these #s hold, offensive/defensive total yards stats are really secondary and don't matter all that much. We'll win A TON of games because we're always close to scoring & the opponent is always several first downs away from thinking about it.
 
When Miles says that JJ is doing everything they want, he's really saying that the strategy is to take care of the ball in our own territory at minimum, play conservative, and make teams drive the length of the field.

September 22, 2010

LSU-Mississippi State Recap
by LSUBarney
 
Contact LSUBarney on e-mail at orphun@gmail.com or follow LSUBarney on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/lsubarney.

The Tigers waltzed to another victory over an overmatched opponent in the 29-7 victory over Dan Mullen’s improved Mississippi State team Saturday night.  Although the Tigers scored on their first 7 possessions, five of those were field goals by Lou Groza Award contender, Josh Jasper.  Defensively, the Tigers did a great job containing Mullen’s offensive attack.  Mississippi State did a good job running the football with starting QB Chris Relf and a stable of good running backs behind a better than average offensive line.  But aside from an early 2nd half drive, the Dawgs really couldn’t establish a consistent offensive attack. The dominant LSU defensive line forced 4 of the team’s 5 interceptions with an overwhelming pass rush that confused Bulldog quarterbacks and hurried throws to receivers downfield.  The strength of the defensive line, especially in passing situations, has been a tremendous and unexpected strength of the 2010 Tigers.
 
On offense, the Tigers lacked firepower and imagination again for most of the game.  But one has to wonder whether or not that has been by design since the start of the 2nd half against North Carolina.  Many times during the Mississippi State game, Bulldog linebackers pointed to the hole where the ball was eventually run.  The Tigers again did not have much of a passing game as Jordan Jefferson failed to throw for over 100 yards for the 2nd straight game.  Are the coaches holding back in games they think are under control?  Under normal circumstances, I’d say no.  But the lack of any downfield passing attack or misdirection running plays leads me to believe that overall the offensive gameplan has been purposefully vanilla for the first quarter of the season.  Only on a few cases did Jordan Jefferson look to pass downfield Saturday night, but he was much more accurate this week than against Vanderbilt.
 
All told, Mississippi State was outmatched by better athletes in the purple and gold as the Tigers won over Mississippi State for the 11th year in a row.  But the keys to the Tiger victory were the same as in the previous two wins of 2010 – return yardage and field position.  The Tigers average starting field position was the Mississippi State 48 yard line because of interceptions and great kick returns.  Contrast that against Mississippi State, whose average starting field position was their own 18 yard line.  It’s a huge advantage to play with a short field while your opponent has to drive the length of the field to score.  That’s also a reason why the Tigers haven’t quite racked up as many yards as their opposition this year.  If that stat remains the same, yardage discrepancies will continue to be a deceiving way to look at the strength of this team.
 

September 14, 2010

Tigers Wear Down Vanderbilt 27-3
by LSUBarney

Contact LSUBarney on e-mail at orphun@gmail.com
or follow LSUBarney on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/lsubarney.

A battle of offensive futility gave way to a bruising LSU running game in the 4th Quarter as the Tigers defeated Vanderbilt 27-3 in Nashville on Saturday.  The Tigers gained 150 yards on the ground in the 4th Quarter to bury the overmatch Commodores, who simply seemed to run out of gas towards the end of the game.
 
The final score was a little deceiving as it was just 10-3 at the start of the 4th Quarter.  That’s a little depressing because this may very well be the worst team that Vanderbilt has fielded in years.  They had no downfield passing game, and the offense couldn’t sustain a drive against the Tigers’ defensive line.  With any offensive execution in the first three quarters, the Tigers win big. But it was very much undecided going into the 4th Quarter.
 
It’s almost unthinkable that LSU couldn’t pass the football against a Vanderbilt defense that stacked the box to stop the run. This is the same Vanderbilt defense that allowed Northwestern’s Dan Persa to complete 90.5% of his passes in their Week 1 loss to Northwestern.  Now surely, Jordan Jefferson had one of his worst games in the purple & gold – many simple throws were off the mark and placed at the feet of receivers. But the gameplan was to attack a bad pass defense by running the ball and again marginalizing some of the best wide receiver talent in the country.
 
Maybe the offensive philosophy is the problem.  Perhaps the coaches aren’t capable of developing a SEC-caliber quarterback. Who knows?  An offense without a downfield passing attack will lose far more games in the SEC than it will win, no matter how good the defense is.
 
The excruciating thing about this for us Tiger fans is that the 2010 team appears to be one good quarterback away from having a championship-caliber season.  Not great, but good.  It’s a team that is certainly better in the trenches than the 2009 version, has its normal compliment of talented skill position players, and has all the elements you need to have a great secondary.  The question is – do we actually have a good quarterback on campus?  The answer may be the difference between a BCS bowl and being home for New Years Day.

September 6, 2010

LSU-North Carolina Recap
by LSUBarney

Contact LSUBarney on e-mail at orphun@gmail.com or
follow LSUBarney on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/lsubarney.

What a tale of two halves – after taking a seemingly insurmountable 30-10 lead on #21 North Carolina in the first half, the Tigers descended into one of the worst 2nd half performances I’ve ever seen from the purple & gold.  And that includes a lot of terrible football in the 1990s.  The offense became overly conservative and couldn’t sustain a drive.  The defensive secondary, a “strength” of the team, got lit up for over 400 yards by a quarterback that many considered to be on his way out at UNC.  A team that was soundly defeated and ready to catch the first bus back to Chapel Hill ended up six yards away from giving our beloved Tigers a soulcrushing defeat.
 
I don’t think any LSU fan feels good about that victory.  If anything, there are more questions after Week 1 than answers.  The only answer that seems evident is that this team looks a lot like last year’s frustrating edition – a mishmash of spectacular individual talent whose whole is far worse than the sum of its parts.  A team that gets dominated on both sides of the ball but survives by the skin of its teeth when extraordinary playmakers make great plays.  Last year’s battles against overmatched opponents such as Washington, Mississippi State, and Louisiana Tech left fans feeling a lot like they did Saturday against North Carolina.
 
Here are some disturbing questions that I hope get resolved in the next few weeks:
 
1)     Can this team actually drive the football the length of the field?  Errors stopped drives cold as the team didn’t have a sustained drive of over 30 yards in the game.

2)     Can the offense get the ball to its 3 5-star wide receivers?  3 stars going up against 4 new starters in the North Carolina secondary resulted in 9 catches for just 100 yards.  Take away Reuben Randle’s 51 yard touchdown catch, and you’re talking about 3 star wide receivers that look a lot like possession receivers.  It’s amazing that our passing game is as undeveloped as it is with a veteran quarterback, an improved offensive line, and great wide receivers.

3)     Will the team score without huge special teams plays?  I can’t imagine anybody is going to kick to our return game at this point – it’s our best offense.

4)     Can John Chavis find a few good men for the secondary?  They made TJ Yates (a very mediocre college QB) look like a superstar in the 2nd half, and they were prone to big plays and big breakdowns in coverage.

5)     Will the coaches actually put a team away before emptying the bench and giving backups playing time?  A lot of people took the field in a 20 point game that was far from decided.
 
They say a team improves best from week one to week two.  Hopefully that cliché will come to pass and the team will improve significantly in Nashville next week.  Otherwise, the heart of the conference schedule will be very rude to the Bayou Bengals. 

September 3, 2010

LSU Season Preview - 2010
by LSUBarney

 Howdy again everyone.  It’s two days before kickoff, and there is probably as much excitement in Tigertown as there has been in several years.  But unlike years past where that excitement was fueled by optimism, enthusiasm in 2010 is probably due to the fact that us fans really don’t know what we’re going to get this year.  There is reason for optimism and reason for pessimism.  These Tigers could finish 6-6 just as easily as they can finish 11-1.  Who knows what we’re really going to get in 2010?
 
Optimists will point to the fact that we’re returning veteran leadership at the quarterback position.  Pessimists will look at the last two years and ask “what exactly is changing?”  Optimists will look at the not 1, not 2, but 3 five-star wide receivers available to Jordan Jefferson that should make his life considerably easier this year. Pessimists will say that those guys didn’t do much for the passing game last year when they were playing second fiddle to Brandon Lafell, now the #2 WR with the Carolina Panthers of the NFL.  Optimists will look at fresh, young running backs and what is likely to be an improved offensive line that should open holes and give Jordan Jefferson time to throw this year.  Pessimists will look back on a 2009 offensive line that yielded 37 sacks and produced one of the worst running games in the SEC.
 
On the defensive side of the ball, there is one place where most LSU fans agree.  The secondary should be great.  Arguably, Patrick Peterson is the best cornerback in college football and he’s surrounded by probably the deepest part of the LSU roster this year.  But question marks are everywhere in the front seven, where Kelvin Sheppard is really the only proven star.  The Tiger defense should feature a great pair of speed rushers in Ken Allen and Sam Montgomery, but they’re also light by modern SEC defensive line standards.  In fact, the front 4 is statistically the lightest in the SEC going into 2010.  When is the last time Vandy and Kentucky had bigger guys in the front 4.  It seems that the Tigers will line up with a young, talented, and very fast defense, but can it stop the run?  That’s the big question going into 2010.
 
The early season schedule favors a strong start, especially with the eligibility problems the North Carolina Tarheels face in the opener.  As many as 16 North Carolina players may be ineligible for the season opener.  That’s a huge advantage for the Tigers, but still no guarantee of victory.  If Carolina gets out of the Georgia Dome with a W despite suspensions and all the distractions, it may just be a long season.  But if the Tigers win, a fast start is within reach as the first three SEC games are against teams projected to finish towards the bottom of the SEC standings this year.
 
I expect the Tigers to surprise folks this season.  They’re being overlooked a bit, and that’s a position we haven’t seen in a bit.  The team is hungry to prove people wrong.  If the Tigers get improved quarterback play and a good showing from the front 4, it will be a great season.
 
I’m calling 9-3 with losses to one of the first five opponents (UNC, Vandy, Mississippi State, West Virginia, or Tennessee), a loss on the road at Florida, and a loss to either Auburn, Alabama, or Arkansas.  We’ll see some improvement at QB that will make us look forward to an explosive offense in 2011.  And we’ll see some significant improvements in time management.  It can’t get any worse right?
 
Comments?  E-mail LSUBarney at orphun@gmail.com

January 4, 2010

LSU-Penn State Recap
by LSUBarney

Contact LSUBarney on e-mail at orphun@gmail.com or follow LSUBarney on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/lsubarney.
 
In the Capital One Bowl battle between two highly overrated teams, Penn State proved to be slightly less overrated with a 19-17 victory over our beloved Tigers.  Fans hoping to see a more competent offensive attack were certainly disappointed, as the Tigers were outgained by almost 100 yards and again couldn’t seem to get on track.  Give Penn State some credit for shutting down the Tiger offense, but that was all too often the tale as the Tigers finished the season 112th in Total Offense in Division 1-A football.  By any measure, that’s a putrid performance – but what makes it worse is that it is a team with a ton of talent at the skill positions.  Nobody expected to see such a dismal showing on offense in 2009.
 
Looking back on the season, the Tigers handily won just 3 games this year – against Louisiana-Lafayette, Auburn, and Tulane. Every other game on the schedule was a contest in the 4th quarter. You may call it parity.  I call it atrocious for a program that has been amongst the best at recruiting over the last decade.  I am not one to rely on recruiting rankings to determine the future success of a team, but I also don’t think the recruiting rankings are all that far off.  They’re a reasonable indicator of talent.  Either we have players who don’t fit the system, we don’t have the coaching to develop the players into elite Division 1 athletes, or we don’t put the players in the best position to win.  In any case, we clearly have a problem and it is only going to get worse in 2010 with a tougher schedule on tap.
 
Another thing that is disturbing to me is the recurring theme of clock management problems.  We saw problems in the Ole Miss game that directly resulted in a loss, and we saw it again in the Capital One Bowl.  At issue are two plays in the final minute:
 
1.      The middle screen call on 1st and 10 from the Penn St. 49 – why we’d make this call with less than 50 seconds to go and no time outs is beyond me.

2.      The fact that we let 11 seconds run off the clock before snapping the ball after the personal foul call against Lyle Hitt.
 
In the first case, it’s as if the coaches had no idea of the game situation.  In the second case, it’s as if Jordan Jefferson and the offense had no sense of urgency.  All of it calls to question whether or not Miles puts his teams in the best position to make plays and win games.
 
And don’t get me started on why Russell Shepard didn’t see the field.
 
Overall, I think the fan base has heartburn over Miles for a few reasons:
-         There are a lot of games that should’ve been won, but weren’t (Tennessee 2005, Auburn 2006, Kentucky & Arkansas 2007, Arkansas 2008, Ole Miss 2009), and there has been at least one every season. Not one of those teams had a talent edge on LSU in those games.

-         Outcomes in the last two seasons have not come close to the apparent talent on the field at LSU.

-         There aren’t answers when the best players aren’t being utilized or aren’t getting playing time.

 
Do we expect more because we’re unreasonable fans?  Or do we expect more because we know that The Hat isn’t getting as much out of his team as he could.
 
Some coaches are more or less known for getting the most out of their players (i.e. Tommy Tuberville, Rich Brooks). Others are primarily known for being great recruiters (i.e. Mark Richt, Bob Stoops).  The fact is that in the first half of the decade, we had one in Nick Saban who was both – a man who despite his personality defects, was a great one.  Now we have a coach in Les Miles who is primarily the latter – but that may be tested if the LSU program continues its slide into mediocrity.  We’re 8-8 in our last two seasons of SEC play.  If that isn’t mediocre, I don’t know what is.  2010 will be a make-or-break year for The Hat in Baton Rouge.

December 28, 2009

Reflecting on the 2009 Season & LSUBarney's Predictions
by LSUBarney

Contact LSUBarney on e-mail at orphun@gmail.com or follow LSUBarney on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/lsubarney.
 
On September 1, I wrapped up my predictions for 2009.  I don’t think I really got anything “right” aside from LSU’s 2 point loss to Ole Miss.  Otherwise, I had the Tigers at 10-2 with a loss to Georgia.  I really overestimated the Bulldogs this year – I thought Joe Cox was the second coming of Matt Flynn.  I guess not.
 
I underestimated Nick Saban – something I probably won’t do again.  Let’s face it, the man has had a very impressive two years.  His last regular season loss came in 2007!
 
I thought the Tigers would beat both Florida and Alabama.  The worst case scenario I foresaw was losing just one of those two games.  And despite the fact that both games were winnable, the Tigers came up short in the two toughest games of the season.
 
I probably would’ve been happy with a 9-3 record at the start of the season if you’d asked me.   But I can’t help but think after watching this team that they didn’t play up to their talent level.  The team is full of elite athletes who showed at times that they could play with the best in the country.  It had weapons at the skill positions with a few holes in the lines on both sides of the ball.  But inconsistency really plagued this team.  We all know deep down inside that this team was capable of more, but lacked the “it” factor that makes good teams into champions.  It could’ve been senior leadership… maybe it was coaching… most likely it was a combination of a lot of factors.
 
Elite recruits and demanding fans alike will not tolerate 8-4 and 9-3 seasons.  Sure, if we look back on history we should be happy to see New Years Day bowls and 9 win seasons.  But this isn’t the schedule of yesteryear – you are pretty much guaranteed 6 wins unless your program is in utter collapse between 4 “rent-a-wins” and a few victories against the little sisters in the conference.  Special seasons mean that you win a majority of your hotly contested games against similar competition.  And over the last few seasons, we’ve been right around .500 or less against the SEC’s best.
 
2010 will prove to be a pivotal year for Les Miles and the Tiger Football program.  The non-conference slate gets tougher with North Carolina and West Virginia.  Georgia gets off the rotation in favor of Tennessee – something that would’ve been a favorable change a few years ago but now it’s probably a tougher matchup. Fans will clamor for a 10 win regular season next year, but that may be too aggressive.  We shall see.

November 22, 2009

Why the Loss to Ole Miss Stings So Bad?
By: LSUBarney

Contact LSUBarney on e-mail at orphun@gmail.com or follow LSUBarney on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/lsubarney.
 
The Tigers lost a heartbreaker to Ole Miss Saturday in what was probably one of the worst examples of late game time management you’ll ever see. Suspect play calling and a strategy that burned more time than it saved in the last minute lost the game and eliminated any shot at a game-winning field goal.  It’s hard to say what is worse – running four receivers deep on first and ten in field goal range or letting 17 seconds elapse after Stevan Ridley’s screen pass reception before calling a time out for the 4th down Hail Mary reception by Terrance Tolliver.   There is a lot of blame to go around, but let’s face it – that refrain is getting all too common. In the Tigers’ 3 losses this season, the team was close and certainly capable of winning, but not quite good enough to pull it out.  Poor gameday coaching lost this winnable game, and it begs the question “could this team have been so much more?”
 
Lost amidst the mismanagement of the end of the game is the fact that Ole Miss dominated most of the football game.  They outgained LSU by 136 yards.  They held LSU to 1.5 yards per carry running the football. If it weren’t for a few breaks in the first quarter, this game very easily could’ve been a blowout.  How is this possible when we all know that LSU has far more talent than Ole Miss?  I’d suggest that Jerrell Powe, Dexter McCluster, and Jevan Snead are just about the only Ole Miss players who would start in front of an LSU starter. That’s 3 out of 22 players.
 
Here are a few statistics for those of you looking for an objective assessment of the LSU program:

1. LSU is 7-7 in its last 14 regular season SEC games,

2. LSU has been both outgained on the ground and through the air in 2009.

3. LSU has outgained 5 of 11 opponents this year (Vandy, ULL, Georgia, Auburn, Tulane)

4. LSU has been outgained by an average of 31 yards a game in SEC play this season

 
A few things are clear as we near the end of the regular season.  LSU’s talent at the skill positions is not well utilized at all.  The defensive line and defensive ends have been a huge liability to a defense that has been pretty sound in the back 7.  When this team has won in 2009, it’s been either against a seriously outmanned opponent or it has been aided by big plays on defense and/or special teams.  This team has dominated two opponents – Auburn and Tulane.  Everything else has been a struggle, and that shouldn’t be the case when you have a roster full of future NFL players.
 
College football is exciting because, among other things, roughly 25% of the players turn over every season. Successful programs have to maintain success to keep the pipeline of top recruits coming to campus.  We’ve flirted with danger for a long time with Les Miles.  But we finally got burned Saturday.  It will be very interesting to see how this team and this head coach responds.
 
This loss stings so bad because it was a winnable game that was lost to an inferior opponent.  They beat us soundly, then tried to give us the game.  We just couldn’t execute good enough to take it.  We were confused and inept at managing the end game.  It was a failure, plain and simple, that we’ve managed to avoid for the better part of a decade.  Some pretty significant improvements are necessary, or things will get far worse before they get any better.

November 17, 2009

LSU-La Tech Recap
By: LSUBarney

Contact LSUBarney on e-mail at orphun@gmail.com or follow LSUBarney on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/lsubarney.
 
I’m sorry if you watched LSU’s lackluster performance against Louisiana Tech on Saturday.  You probably feel like I did that it was 3 hours that you were never going to get back… a game in name only where both the fans and the players really seemed like they’d rather be somewhere else.  I guess that’s the danger of November out of conference opponents from outside the BCS.  I’d probably be a lot more disturbed about the game had this happened in September.
 
But with 8 wins under our belt, it’s pretty clear that we can play toe to toe with the elite of college football. We’ve taken care of business all season and have only lost to the #1 and #2 teams in the country.  In fact, you could argue that #3 Texas would have 2 losses against LSU’s schedule this year and that their best win against Oklahoma or Oklahoma State is no more impressive than LSU’s win over Auburn. But that’s scheduling and to win the national title, you have to first win the SEC at least in the current BCS format.
 
On the bad news front, here’s a shocking stat for you: through 10 games this season, LSU has been outgained by its opponents.  It’s clear if you’ve watched any of the games this season that it is a result of two things:  an anemic offense ranked 12th in the SEC behind powerhouses like Vandy and Mississippi State, and a defense that is good in pass coverage but comparatively very weak against the run.  One fair criticism of Les Miles would be the lack of a competent front on either side of the ball in 2009.  It’s a shame because the skill positions are loaded as they have perhaps never been.  But this collection of talent can’t seem to move the football very well on anyone, not even a Louisiana Tech team that was decimated with injuries and starting several true freshmen.
 
I really feel sorry for Jarrett Lee.  Here’s a guy who came in with a lot of talent – so much so that he was given the reins on the LSU offense last season as a redshirt freshman.  The problem is that he really needed a few years in the system to be a great quarterback at LSU.  Now he’s a guy with immense talent who now appears to be a guy who can’t quite get it done in the SEC.  It is really hard to see this ending for him in a few years with a degree from LSU and 4-5 years of great experiences to remember.  It’s a shame because you can see that he’s a fighter.  He’s a guy who has been through a lot of adversity as the quarterback of LSU, and he’ll ultimately be a better man for it.  But with Jordan Jefferson poised to start for two more years and True Freshman Chris Garrett waiting in the wings, it’s hard to see a spot for Jarrett Lee in 2010.  I think the 7-22 performance against a very weak Louisiana Tech pass defense may have sealed the deal.
 
So now it is back to the last two games of the SEC schedule against Ole Miss and Arkansas.  These are two winnable games if the Tigers play with the intensity of previous SEC matchups and if Jordan Jefferson can recover from his ankle injury.  If not, it could be a wild ride to the finish.

November 9, 2009

LSU-Alabama Review
By: LSUBarney

Contact LSUBarney on e-mail at orphun@gmail.com or follow LSUBarney on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/lsubarney.

The Tigers fought the mighty Crimson Tide toe to toe in one of the fiercest and hardest hitting college football games you’ll ever see.  It was a battle of two titans.  After playing without its starting tight end, quarterback, and running back… and after losing its star middle linebacker and All-American cornerback to injuries for a lot of the game, the Tigers were down by only six with six minutes to play. Then, that same cornerback playing with cramps as a result of having the flu most of the week made a play that very few college corners can make – a bang-bang play where Patrick Peterson had the wherewithal to make a key interception and get not one but two feet in bounds.

Except it wasn’t meant to be.  Officials who were right there on the spot didn’t see it.  They conferred for a moment then decided it wasn’t an interception after all for reasons that escape all of us.  It went to the booth where the play was inexplicably not overturned, and that was basically the ball game.
 
Sure, the Tigers were guilty of a running into the kicker penalty and they couldn’t stop Alabama’s running game from setting up for the game winning field goal.  More on all of that in a moment, but on the INT, the officials had a rather obvious call to make: either by correctly calling it or by overturning the ruling on the field. Yet there wasn’t sufficient evidence to overturn the play.
 
Now let’s look at how the game played out.  LSU held serve in the first half after a late interception by Kelvin Sheppard.  The offense blew a few opportunities with penalties and key mistakes at critical times, and the defensive line was totally outmatched by Alabama especially in the 2nd half of the game.  But, LSU still held the lead going into the fourth quarter.  They made a stop early in the 4th to hold Alabama to a field goal.  Then Julio Jones made a play on a short screen pass that few players in college football could’ve made… even Julio Jones himself without the aid of this blatant block in the back on the Tiger cornerback who was in a position to make the play.

Now it is certainly popular to thrash the SEC officials.  No doubt officials haven’t done themselves any favors.  But here are two plays – one that cinched the game for Alabama and a no-call block in the back that sprung a wide receiver for a long touchdown – that clearly influenced the outcome of the game.
 
But let’s get back to this interception.  I’m miffed that the Tigers didn’t have the opportunity to win down by only 6 and 68 yards to go.  Sure, LSU’s offense was pretty weak in the 4th Quarter.  But that doesn’t mean anything.  Why?  A few reasons:

-         Nick Saban is a notoriously conservative coach who lets his defense win games.  LSU would’ve had at least one chance to score a game winning touchdown, and possibly two, because Saban would’ve played a very conservative offense had they gotten the ball back from an interception or loss of possession on downs,

-         Alabama would’ve been playing *very* tight with everything to lose on defense on that final drive.  You just don’t know how people will perform under pressure,

-         Jarrett Lee, who struggled in the game, still has a very good deep ball not to mention a lot to prove.  This could’ve been his opportunity to exorcise demons from 2008

 
But it all was not meant to be.  The officials dictated the outcome of the last six minutes and took that opportunity away from the players.  Despite playing without six starters, the Tigers went toe to toe with the #2 team in the country and had a chance to win… until they didn’t.  I’m proud of the effort and I have renewed faith in the coaching staff that we’re on the right track.  The 2010 LSU Tigers football team will be unbeatable if they can find a few good men for the defensive line.  As for 2009, we’ll just have to rest assured that our players can play with anyone as long as there is a level playing field.

November 6, 2009

LSU-Alabama Preview
By: LSUBarney

Contact LSUBarney on e-mail at orphun@gmail.com or follow LSUBarney on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/lsubarney.
 
Rivalries in sports are generally the result of one of a few things. Either two teams are close geographically or they battle each other regularly in highly contested games with championships on the line. During the Tommy Tuberville era at Auburn, the winner of the LSU/Auburn game would generally go on to a great season while the loser would struggle.  But over the last few seasons, the annual battle with Alabama has taken its place. Les vs. Nick, Tigers vs. Bama, Western Division title up for grabs.  It doesn’t get any better than this.
 
A lot of people thought the Tigers had a chance at a great season, but I thought the Tigers would struggle with consecutive games against Georgia, Florida, and Auburn.  Au contraire – the Tigers are 7-1 and in a position to compete for a national title by winning out.  Not bad for a team that has been prone to playing to the level of its opposition most of the season.
 
Alabama’s defense is certainly one of the top units in the country in 2009.  This is a team that has given up only 4 touchdowns total in SEC play this season.  It’s a typical Nick Saban defense that is strong against the run and good enough against the pass to cause an occasional turnover.  On first glance, it may be hard to see the Tigers running effectively against this unit, but remember that LSU did establish the run well enough to win in 2008.  LSU gained 201 yards on 46 carries against the Tide last year.
 
On defense, LSU will face Julio Jones and Mark Ingram – probably the best WR/RB combination that the Tigers will face all season. It will be a big test for the Tigers to contain them both this week. Fortunately, the Tiger defense has stepped it up a notch over the last 4 games.  Most notable is the improved play of the defensive line and of the linebackers.  The secondary is the strength of the unit, but improved play in the front 7 has this defense rounding into shape as a premier SEC defense just at the right time.
 
I think the key to this game is avoiding big mistakes on offense. Jordan Jefferson is going to have to navigate a confusing scheme from Nick Saban all day long.  Saban will blitz from just about anywhere on the field, and especially on 3rd downs.  The LSU game plan will have to neutralize that blitz and start the game with a successful drive. Otherwise, the Tigers will have a long day in Tuscaloosa.
 
Although LSU is an 8 point underdog, this seems to be a pretty even matchup.  Alabama has the edge in the trenches.  LSU has a slight edge at the skill positions.  I look for another great football game with the Tigers pulling out a squeaker 13-10.

 

November 2, 2009

LSU-Tulane Recap
LSUBarney

Contact LSUBarney on e-mail at orphun@gmail.com or follow LSUBarney on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/lsubarney.

The Tigers enjoyed a rather relaxing 42-0 victory over the Tulane Green Wave on Saturday. It wasn’t the best performance on offense, nor on defense despite the shutout. The Tiger offense sputtered at times, and Tulane was able to move the ball here and there with a short passing game to backs and slot receivers. But all told, you have to be happy with a 42 point win and just a few knicks and bruises to key contributors.

The highlight of the game in my view was Kelvin Sheppard on defense. #11 has probably been the best beneficiary of John Chavis’ coaching – going from a player who looked to be the biggest liability on the defensive side of the ball at the start of the season to one of the strengths. All told, the entire defense has been a different unit since giving up 26 points in Starkville at the end of September. The secondary appears to be the strength of the team, and they’ll need it in November especially against Ole Miss and Arkansas.

On offense, it was hard not to notice the performance of Stevan Freaking Ridley. I know it was in mop-up duty against the Tulane 2nd string, but we have a lot to look forward to if #34 is toting the ball next season. Ridley came in with about 4 minutes left and carried the ball 8 times for 73 yards and a touchdown as the offense marched effortlessly down the field. But it was keyed by Ridley’s speed, power, and vision. If you didn’t see the game, the best analogy is Cecil Collins – he looked just like “The Diesel” at the running back position. It will be interesting to see if he gets on the field this week in Tuscaloosa. He has been recovering from an ACL tear suffered in the spring, but you certainly wouldn’t know it by how he ran Saturday night.

This is a team that is starting to catch its groove on defense and continues to steadily improve on offense. It may just be enough to take on the Crimson Tide. LSU opens as a 9 point underdog in Tuscaloosa – I don’t know about you, but that seems to me to be *A LOT* of points for two teams that seem to be evenly matched going into the huge game.

 

October 28, 2009

LSU-Auburn Recap
By: LSUBarney

Contact LSUBarney on e-mail at orphun@gmail.com or follow LSUBarney on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/lsubarney.
 
The Bayou Bengals routed Auburn 31-10 in what was an unexpectedly easy football game.  The defense played spectacularly, neither bending nor breaking by holding Auburn to just 193 yards of total offense.  That was by far the worst offensive performance of the season by Auburn. Consider also that Auburn completed 3 passes for 17 yards to Wide Receivers in the game, with a 16 yard catch coming in garbage time.  The LSU secondary totally shut down the Auburn passing game in one of the most dominating secondary performances in recent memory.  Auburn became one-dimensional and couldn’t move the ball consistently all night long.  Hats off also to Linebacker Harry Coleman, who was a fierce pass rusher off the edge on several big plays.
 
You have to also be thrilled with the performance of the LSU offense.  It seemed that Jordan Jefferson could complete every pass he threw.  The game plan included a few downfield passes that only makes you wonder how that would’ve worked against other opponents this season. That gave LSU Wide Receivers separation all night that allowed Jordan Jefferson to have a great game throwing the football.
 
Despite the dominating performance, there are still a few opportunities to improve.  Wide Receivers had a few inexplicable drops that either stopped drives or negated otherwise big plays.  The Tigers left 10 points on the field in the first half with some bad execution in Auburn territory that led to a turnover and a long missed field goal.  And the running game still couldn’t get on track – before Russell Shepard’s 70 yard touchdown run the Tigers averaged a mere 1.7 yards per carry on the ground.
 
His run was particularly interesting however – Shepard hit a tiny hole in the offensive line and was off to the races.  That was a run that neither Charles Scott nor Keiland Williams could’ve made.  Now both Charles Scott and Keiland Willams are great running backs who should both have very productive NFL careers.  But you have to wonder if they’re the right backs for an offensive line as weak as ours is in 2009.  It seems to me that to succeed running the ball, you need backs who have the speed to hit a small hole quickly and break away for a long touchdown.  This may just be a line built more for quicker backs like Richard Murphy, Trindon Holliday, and Russell Shepard than it is for power backs like Scott and Williams.
 
All of that said, it was a great victory.  There is room for improvement but there are signs that this team may be starting to peak at the right time.

 

October 23, 2009

LSU Update
By: LSUBarney

The Auburn Tigers - or is it War Eagles ;-) - come into Tiger Stadium a wounded bunch.  They’ve lost the last two games after a scorching 5-0 start that made this blogger and a lot of other experts a believer in Gus Malzahn… er… Gene Chizik.  But playing without a full complement of 85 Division I athletes is starting to catch up with Auburn.  It isn’t just that they lost the last two games, but they’ve been beaten physically in the last two games.  Depth is a hard core concern for the Plainsmen especially on the defensive side of the ball.  After injuries and suspensions, they come to Baton Rouge with 4 scholarship cornerbacks and 3 scholarship linebackers.  It’s tough to play a full SEC slate down ten Division I athletes.

 

Our Tigers have had almost two full weeks to consider all the missed opportunities in the Florida game.  The offense missed opportunities to attack the Gators downfield, which the film room and Arkansas’ occasional deep ball against them have shown over the last two weeks.  This and the lack of a vertical passing game led the Tigers to focus on this part of the offense in the off week.  We’re all eager to see how this translates against a quality opponent on the field Saturday night.

 

Auburn’s October swoon shouldn’t fool anyone.  Although they’re a team that LSU should beat at least on paper… er… oh wait.  Let me start over.  LSU is even with Auburn or has the edge at pretty much every position on the field except offensive line.  On one hand, this is the mighty Auburn Tigers who always play LSU well regardless of the matchup.  On the other hand, this is a team on the ropes and it’s coached by Gene Chizik, not Tommy Tuberville.

 

I like a lot of points in this game.  This is just the kind of matchup that will challenge the LSU defensive line.  I don’t think Auburn will be able to throw much on the talented LSU secondary, but they can move the ball with a mix of inside and outside runs designed to deceive the LSU front 7.  I also think that we’ll see the best performance of the season from the LSU Offense.  The Tigers have a deadly combination of strong, big, fast WRs and big, physical backs that a team like Auburn probably doesn’t want to face given depth issues across their defense.

 

I expect to see a wide open first half ending with a score like 24-17 or something similar.  The Bayou Bengals show offensive firepower again in the 2^nd half and hold Auburn to a late score for an uncharacteristically high scoring 41-24 victory.

 

October 11, 2009

LSU-Florida Recap -- An "Offense"ive Performance
By: LSUBarney

Contact LSUBarney on e-mail at orphun@gmail.com or follow LSUBarney on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/lsubarney.
 
Saturday night, the Tigers wasted a decent defensive effort by scoring 3 points and gaining a whopping 162 yards of offense in a 13-3 loss to the Gators.  The offense was shocking in its lack of imagination and its ineptitude.  The offensive line couldn’t stop a four man pass rush (again).  Jordan Jefferson couldn’t find open receivers. The Florida defense totally outmatched and outplayed the LSU offense, and that was the story of the game.  And as great as the defensive effort was, LSU did not hold Florida to a single 3 and out.  The bend but don’t break defense operated under duress most of the game with Florida running a whopping 47 of their 64 plays in LSU territory.  You won’t win many games that way.
 
To summarize, it was a game that could’ve been a lot worse than the score.  Yet it was still a winnable game if we have any offense whatsoever.  I credit the Florida Gators defense for a great game, but this was really about how terrible LSU is on offense this season.
 
A lot of people will call for a new quarterback. Certainly Jordan Jefferson isn’t comfortable or even particularly effective in this offense.  But I’m not sure Jarrett Lee or Russell Shepard would’ve done much better.  The offensive line was porous and is proving to be the biggest weakness of the 2009 team.  It isn’t like we have seen great offensive production this season.  This offense has struggled for most of 2009.  It can’t run or pass.  Granted, it all starts up front with the offensive line but this is an offense built around the presumption of a great offensive line that is really not there.
 
Some folks may feel fortunate that we played the #1 team of the country close with all the troubles we have especially on the offensive side of the ball.  But I’m concerned that without better production on the offensive side of the ball, we’ll have trouble winning more than one or two of the remaining games on the SEC schedule.  We’ll have to score points against Auburn and Arkansas to win, and we can’t expect the defense to hold the opposition to 13 points a game.  You can’t go terribly far with the 109th ranked offense in college football.  Sadly, at least at the skill positions we have the talent to expect better.
 
As it turns out, the Florida game will go down as the game where our offensive weakness finally caught up to us.  Basic zone coverage with a 4 man pass rush totally confuses our offense.  I’m afraid this is too big a problem to overcome the 2nd half of the season.  Let’s hope I’m wrong.
 

October 9, 2009

LSU Update
By: LSUBarney

It’s here – the biggest matchup in Tiger Stadium since Halloween Night 1959.  Tigers vs. Gators.  Urban vs. The Hat.  This is one of those games we’ll look back on ten years from now and say “gosh there sure was a lot of NFL talent on the field that night.”  This is the type of game that makes top athletes want to go to places like LSU and Florida.  The atmosphere will likely be off the charts.

Florida is a team that comes into Tiger Stadium with arguably a better defense than offense.  They’re loaded with NFL talent at the line of scrimmage, at linebacker, and in the secondary.  You can’t point to a single place on the field where the Tigers have the advantage when on offense except *maybe* when Brandon LaFell lines up one on one against single coverage.  Florida has a fast defense that pursues the ball very well and is fundamentally sound almost everywhere on the field.  How do you beat a defense like this?  You do what the Tigers did in 2007 – you run straight at them.  You also need to occasionally stretch the defense to alleviate pressure on the interior of the offensive line.

Defensively, the Tigers don’t know if they’ll deal with Tim Tebow, John Brantley, or both.  It’s hard to say that the Tigers may have more trouble facing the backup than the 2007 Heisman Trophy winner, but it may just be the case.  Brantley poses a real threat to throw the football – so the Tigers must defend the pass and watch out for speed backs Jeff Demps and Chris Rainey.  Although this may be the weakest Florida receiving crew they’ve put on the field in a few years, they’re still formidable with TE Aaron Hernandez, WR Riley Cooper, and WR Deonte Thompson who returns from injury the last few weeks.  The matchup of Florida receivers vs. the LSU secondary tends to favor the Tigers, but my eyes will be on the LSU pass rush.  The Tiger defensive line hasn’t forced a sack since September 12th, and if they have this much trouble rushing the QB it will be a long night for the home team.  The front four must generate more pressure Saturday to give the Tigers a chance to win.

IMO, Florida will score some points.  Their strength running the football is a good matchup for our weakness at defensive line.  The Tigers also seem to have some trouble with fast running backs and the spread offense.  This game comes down to whether or not LSU can move the ball enough on the Florida defense to keep the game close.  The offensive line must step up, and Jordan Jefferson can’t take sacks like he did last week often times against a four man rush.  I think the Tigers come to play on Saturday on both sides of the ball, but Florida probably has a little too much for the Tigers this year.  This won’t earn me many fans, but I like Florida to win a hard fought game by 10-14 points.  So give me Florida -8 in a game where the Tigers ironically earn a lot of respect from national media.

October 4, 2009

LSU-Georgia Analysis & Observations
By: LSU Barney

  Contact LSUBarney on e-mail at orphun@gmail.com or follow LSUBarney on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/lsubarney.
 
Whew!  What a great win!  Anytime you go into a place like Sanford Stadium against a ranked Georgia Bulldogs team and come out with a win,  you have to be thrilled.  The victory sets up an epic showdown with the Florida Gators next Saturday night in prime time.
 
The Tiger defense, at times, was dominant.  Georgia had one first down in the first half on a play where A.J. Green pushed Patrick Peterson to get an underthrown pass.  That was the extent of Georgia’s offensive production in the first half – certainly the best half of football the defense has played all season.  Despite that and the fact that the Tigers had a nearly 200 yard total yards advantage, we had only a 6-0 lead at half.  The second half was a different story.  Georgia made some adjustments on the defensive side of the ball that clearly confused Jordan Jefferson, especially in the third quarter.  A crazy last 6 minutes of the game was capped by the best run of Charles Scott’s career that won the game with less than a minute to play.
 
Takeaways
-         This team has the capacity to dominate good teams. In the first half, we dominated everywhere but the scoreboard.  With better execution, the game is over at halftime.  It bodes well for matchups with better opponents later this season.

-         This team also plays to the level of its opponents – they certainly played a lot better Saturday than they did in all of September.

-         The offense still struggles in the red zone and is going to have to be more effective against teams with a better offense. It remains to be seen whether or not we can score a lot of points against a quality opponent.

-         Jordan Jefferson is still developing as a quarterback – the game will “slow down” for him, but as of now he’s still a little unsure in the pocket.  He had plenty of time back there, but still was sacked six times.

-         Despite the fact that opposing defenses know he’s going to run, Russell Shepard is still effective running the option.  He brings a spark to the offense when he’s in the game.

 
The cardiac Tigers did it again – bring on the Gators!

October 2, 2009

LSU Update
By: LSUBarney

Here we are – after some snoozer matchups that proved to be much closer games than were expected, it’s time to learn about our LSU football team.  With all due respect to our September opponents, the real season starts Saturday afternoon.  That was the way it appeared at the start of the season, and although we’re probably fortunate to be 4-0, the fact remains that we are… and we’re in control of our own destiny to have a great season.

The glaring question is whether or not September was effectively a “preseason” for LSU to work out all the kinks or if it was a sign of struggles to come.  No matter what this writer or any other tells you, nobody knows for sure.  What we can say is that LSU will not do very well running the ball up the middle against 8 or 9 men in the box.  The Tigers need some people in the interior of the offensive line to step up.  Jordan Jefferson needs to make the right reads downfield to stretch the field vertically.  We need the defensive line to get healthy and we need Jacob Cutrera in the middle of the defense the rest of the season to be at our best.  Pass defense is probably the strength of this team – if we can improve against the run, we’ll have a pretty solid defensive unit.

Georgia is a team that comes into the game a lot like LSU – they’re loaded with talent, but they certainly have not yet played their best game.  They aren’t running the ball particularly well despite returning some talented backs.  Their defense, like LSU’s, is near the bottom of the rankings in total defense in the SEC.  The fan base has a lot of doubters.  Does all this sound familiar?

Georgia’s Offense vs. the LSU Defense appears to be a pretty good matchup for the Tigers.  It’s strength vs. strength – Georgia pass offense vs. the LSU pass defense.  Georgia does not have much of an option threat nor the scatback that could give this defense fits.  Richard Samuel and Caleb King are big, powerful runners not all that unlike Charles Scott and Keiland Williams.  But don’t let any of this fool you – as last year’s game showed, Mark Richt can find problems with our defense and exploit them.

In my mind, this game comes down to whether or not the Tigers can do some new things on offense to control the ball and keep the defense off the field.  One part of me thinks that we won’t see anything terribly different than what we’ve seen so far, and the Tigers will continue to struggle on offense.  Should that happen, this will be a relatively easy Georgia win.  On the other hand, I think this staff really did save a few bullets in the gun for this game and the game against the Gators next week.  I also think the players have heard a lot about being overrated at #4, and they’re out to prove something.  Give me LSU +3.5 on the basis that the offense comes to play and we see a little more consistency now that the level of competition has improved.  I don’t know if the Tigers will win, but I expect the Tigers to put forth their most complete game of the season between the hedges.

 

September 28, 2009

Is This As Good As It Gets?
By: LSUBarney

Contact LSUBarney on e-mail at orphun@gmail.com or follow LSUBarney on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/lsubarney.
 
September has finally come to a merciful end after four uninspired performances against overmatched opponents.  In the latest debacle, the Tigers needed a +4 turnover ratio, a pick 6, a punt return for touchdown and an improbable late goal line stand to beat a 14 point underdog without an SEC-caliber quarterback.  Most Tiger fans know that despite a 4-0 record and a consensus #4 ranking in the polls, this team can’t play the same and expect to compete with top tier SEC competition.  Let’s face it – the Tigers of September would likely be underdogs against every remaining SEC opponent on the schedule.  Something has to change and fast, otherwise the Tigers will be lucky to spend the holidays in Shreveport this season.
 
Most of the problems this year are tied to what has turned into an anemic offense that is ranked 105th in the country. Remember – this is after facing four of the weakest opponents on our schedule.  The offense is based on a power running game – a staple of the Les Miles philosophy.  But we have two problems executing it: 1) we are young up the middle, and 2) we have so far been unable to keep opponents from stacking the line of scrimmage.  The power running game does not involve a lot of deception although it does often involve a fullback.  You have to wonder if we wouldn’t do better with more one back sets that force the defense to defend our talented WRs.  Add some misdirection and motion, and you’ll at least find it easier to run the football into the middle of the defensive line.
 
I think there is actually a decent chance that the Tigers have held back a bit on offense.  You haven’t seen a lot of trickery, motion, misdirection.  You haven’t seen a variety of different formations, and you’ve seen a play or two from the “Wild Tiger”.  On very few occasions have you seen Russell Shepard on the field at all, much less with Trindon Holliday, Terrance Toliver, and Brandon LaFell.  I think you’ll see a few different plays and formations this week in Athens.  That said, if you can’t run your base offense with any success, it’s hard to see them being successful with other plays out of the same formations.
 
It’s hard to complain about a team with a #4 ranking and a perfect 4-0 record, but this is a team that very easily could’ve lost one or two of its first four games.  The defense has shown some modest improvement which includes a potentially season-changing goal line stand against Mississippi State.  But overall this is a team that appears to be going through the motions, and a team that doesn’t seem particularly strong in the trenches on either side of the ball.  Fortunately, the season starts anew on Saturday in Athens.  And despite all the issues so far, this is a team that remains in control of its own destiny to win championships.  We’ll know if this team has championship mettle during the next two weeks at Georgia and in prime time at home against Florida, but sadly this may just be as good as it gets.

September 26, 2009

LSU-Mississippi State Preview
By: LSUBarney

 
Contact LSUBarney on e-mail at orphun@gmail.com or follow LSUBarney on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/lsubarney.

September closes with the last of one of the easiest four game stretches the Tigers have seen this decade.  But these games have been a lot tougher than most Tiger fans would’ve expected.  Is it a sign that the 2009 Tigers aren’t quite as good as we think?  We’ll know for sure over the next three weeks.
 
Despite living in the SEC West cellar for the last several years, Mississippi State comes into the LSU game a confident bunch. First-year coach Dan Mullen got his first SEC win last week beating Vanderbilt on the road 15-3.  The Dawgs won’t scare you with their passing game, but they do have one of the best running backs in the SEC in Anthony Dixon.  On defense, they’re one of the worst units in the SEC against the run, but also one of the best against the pass.
 
The weather will not cooperate yet again… rain is expected in Starkville for the game.  On one hand, the Tigers have gotten a lot of experience playing in bad conditions.  But on the other, the offense hasn’t been all that great all season.  I look for the Tigers to win a low-scoring 2 TD game… I’m more confident about the Under than I am the line of the game.
 
Recapping last week, I was 4-1 for the 2nd week in a row.  Now that I’ve gloated, I’m sure I’ll have a bad week.  But in any event, here’s what I see
 
Ole Miss -3.5 @ South Carolina – I really like Steve Spurrier and I think this team is better than the last few he’s fielded at South Carolina.  I think the Rebs have a few questionmarks, but I expect them to avenge last year’s loss to the Gamecocks with a 10-12 point victory on the road Thursday night.
 
Arkansas +17.5 @ Alabama – You can call this a vote in confidence of the spread offense more than Arkansas.  I think Alabama’s defense will smother Arkansas early in this game and perhaps get a pick 6 and/or some great field position.  But you can’t keep a spread offense down all day.  I am looking for ‘Bama to jump out early, then lighten up a bit which will allow Arkansas to score a junk TD or two that will get the game back within the spread.  Or it will work out that Arkansas can simply compete with ‘Bama.  Either way, it leads me to think that 17.5 points is way too much.
 
Miami -2 @ Virginia Tech – I am not sold on Virginia Tech – they’re a good club, but not an elite club.  Jacory Harris is one of the most exciting players in college football.  The U is back and will beat Virginia Tech by 2 TDs in Blacksburg.
 
Texas Tech/Houston under 74 – For all their offensive prowess, these two teams aren’t all that bad defensively.  Texas Tech is ranked #22 in the country in total defense, and they held the Longhorns to just 340 yards on the road in a 34-24 loss last week.  Houston is ranked #52 in scoring defense and they defend the pass competently.  74 points is a lot… give me the Under.

September 22, 2009

Fanxiety at the End of the First Quarter
By: LSUBarney

 
Contact LSUBarney on e-mail at orphun@gmail.com or follow LSUBarney on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/lsubarney.

I finally caught the LSU-ULL game today – in short, it was another pedestrian performance against a third weak opponent in a row.  But instead of picking apart the game, I thought I’d break down the Tigers statistically after three games – or one quarter of the season.
 
In retrospect, it appears that Washington is a lot better than last year’s 0-12 record would indicate.  Vandy may not have the team they had last year because their offense is so anemic.  ULL is… a Sun Belt team that we beat as we should.  So it all probably evens out in the end.  Washington is certainly a bowl team, but I’m not so sure about Vandy or ULL.  September is playing out as expected – three Tiger victories against overmatched opponents with one game remaining before the schedule gets a lot tougher in a hurry.
 
Below is a summary of the main statistics.  If you’re looking at outcomes, you are probably not terribly concerned.  The Tigers have comfortably won all three games despite a little unexpected heartburn. But if you look a little closer at the numbers, you probably have some “fanxiety”.
 

 
A few stats here really concern me:

•       10 plays less per game – this is OK if you have an explosive offense (ahem), but lacking that the extra snaps add up.  Should the trend hold over the course of a season, our defense would play an extra 2 games this year… not good for a defensive line with some issues dominating the line of scrimmage.
  
•       5.7 yard per game advantage – net yardage is a good indicator of overall dominance on both sides of the field.  Overall, we simply have not dominated our opponents so far this season.  Admittedly, these numbers are skewed by being outgained by over 150 yards at Washington.
  
   
  Now we’ve improved defensively after a shaky start, but is that true improvement or have the last two opponents been considerably weaker than Washington?  The offense has been very weak so far this season, putting up 321, 326, and 330 yards in the three games.  Technically that’s improvement, but I don’t think it’s the improvement that fans expect.  It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to notice that the downfield passing game has been non-existent this season, and that allows opponents to line up in the box and defend the run and short passing game.  A lot of that is Jordan Jefferson’s comfort level with throwing downfield.  Reports are that he’s checked out of several downfield passes in favor of shorter, higher percentage routes.  The only problem is that without a vertical passing game, you can expect to see our offensive struggles continue.
   
  This can go two ways.  Either Jordan Jefferson gets a lot more comfortable in the offense in the heart of SEC play or he doesn’t. I’d expect the kinks to have been worked out during these relatively easy games, but we’re running out of time.  We’ll need to open up the field to move the ball consistently against Georgia and Florida.  Do we really want to see what happens if we get around to stretching the field for the first time in game 5?
   
  I’ll be looking closely at the offense against Mississippi State… not looking for outcomes, but the wide open offense we’ll need to compete against top SEC opponents.  If we don’t see it this week, we’ll all be holding our breath hoping the “vertical passing game” light comes on for Jefferson in the heat of the moment in Athens, GA.  Otherwise, we’re really going to have problems against the meat of the SEC schedule.
   
  

September 17, 2009

LSU vs. Louisiana-Lafayette Preview
By: LSUBarney

Contact LSUBarney on e-mail at orphun@gmail.com or follow LSUBarney on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/lsubarney.

I have to say for the record that I’m not really looking forward to this game in any way – so much so that I’m going out of town for the weekend and I probably won’t even watch it live.  Blasphemy? Yes.  But I find games like this really uninteresting.  Why? SEC powers are supposed to skulldrag Sun Belt teams.  LSU has dominated the series with ULL winning 21 games by an average score of 46-1.  ULL has not scored a touchdown on LSU since 1924.  I’d venture to say that you would be hard pressed to find an LSU or ULL fan who was alive to see that touchdown.
 
In an ideal world, college football would be run like English Premier League soccer as the good folks at ESPN suggested a few weeks ago, and you could only schedule teams in your division.  That would make life a lot more interesting, assuming you could stay in the top division of course.
 
At risk of sounding like a broken record, but I’d be thrilled with a victory that a lot of LSU fans expect – something like 45-0.  ULL defeated Kansas State 17-15 last week in a game that was inexplicably played on the Ragin’ Cajuns’ home field.  I mean, what Big 12 opponent agrees to play a game in Lafayette?
 
But in all seriousness, ULL is not a team that we should expect to crush as we have historically.  ULL is a team with some strength at offensive line, so don’t be shocked if they move the ball a bit on the LSU defense.
 
This is a game without a lot of upside for the Tigers, especially if it is too close for comfort or if backups can’t get meaningful reps.  I expect to see the offensive gameplan involve a lot more looks downfield, which is what we’ve all been waiting to see.   I like the Tigers -26.5 with a lean to the OVER in this game.  Expect to see a lot of passing in this one on both sides of the field.
 

September 14, 2009

Contact LSUBarney on e-mail at orphun@gmail.com or follow LSUBarney on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/lsubarney

The Tigers came away with a tough 2 touchdown victory over the Vanderbilt Commodores in a game that was certainly closer than the score and the stats revealed.  Let’s face it – the game was very much in doubt until the 2nd Keiland Williams touchdown with 6 minutes left.
 
We certainly saw improvement from the defense – after giving up almost 500 yards to Washington, the defensive unit gave up only 210 yards to the ‘Dores.  As good as that is, I wouldn’t get terribly excited about this.  Vandy’s offense is not exactly an elite SEC unit.  They lost their best offensive lineman in the 3rd quarter, and their wide receivers dropped several catchable passes that would have made the game a lot more interesting.  But we did see some better things from the defense.  Line play was better, and overall they did a good job of containing an athletic quarterback in Larry Smith.  Vanderbilt didn’t threaten either cornerback all night long – part of that is having talented corners but it also speaks to Vandy’s lack of playmakers on the edge.  In short, this is an offense that we should’ve contained and for the most part that happened.  I am not sure that this is a sign that the defense is back to its dominant form of the Pelini and Saban years.
 
The offense really struggled, particularly in the 2nd half.  As I predicted last week, the Tigers got very conservative after taking a two score lead early in the 3rd Quarter.  The strategy probably would have paid off better had we not sailed a punt snap into the end zone near the end of the 3rd Quarter.  A two score game suddenly got a lot closer.  Again, the Tigers scored a 4th Quarter touchdown to seal a close ball game on a drive that ended with Keiland Williams’ impressive 14 yard touchdown run.  In two games so far, this team has managed to score when it was needed – which leads you to believe that they play with a little more focus and intensity when the opponent starts playing a little tougher.  Interestingly, this offense hasn’t threatened opposing defenses vertically despite having a wealth of talent at WR. Jordan Jefferson overthrew a wide open Chris Mitchell in the first half, but that’s about it for the vertical passing game.  It’s hard to say whether or not the offense has been more conservative because of the weather or because the coaching staff is trying to give Jordan Jefferson more confidence. Here are the stats of LSU starting QBs over the last four seasons:

  Despite the lack of a vertical passing game and wet weather in the first two games, Jefferson’s numbers are far better than his numbers last year and similar to Matt Flynn in 2007 but with a significantly higher completion percentage.  The numbers tell us that it’s likely the offensive game plan has been to make shorter, less risky throws in the first few games of 2009.  Jefferson has been an effective game manager so far – we shall see how this changes when competition gets a little stiffer in October.
 
So for now, be thankful the Tigers have had two relatively easy games at the front of the schedule.  Two other apparently outmanned opponents await in the next two weeks.  Hopefully the Tigers can win those two while continuing to improve.

September 10, 2009

LSUBarney Picks

After a few days and rewatching the LSU-Washington game, I’m not nearly as pessimistic as I was about the Tigers.  Why?  Well I think the issues we saw last Saturday night come down to a few things that we aren’t likely to see this week against Vandy:
-         3rd down conversions – Chavis coaches players to keep the plays in front of them, but I doubt he coaches the players to give easy “pitch and catch” first downs.  Expect to see the defense tighten a bit on 3rd down.

-         Bad angles – We got outrun to the corner on a few occasions by the faster than expected Husky backfield.  You have to figure that the coaches worked a bit on this over the last few days.

-         Fatigue – No doubt the combination of giving up over 36 minutes time of possession and a 4 hour cross-country flight wore down the defense in the 2nd half.  The team should be well rested this week.

-         Athletic quarterback – Jake Locker made some great plays at QB as both a runner and a passer.  He’s a talented player who should suit up for an NFL team in the next year or two.  We’ll only see a quarterback this talented one other time this season.

 
All of that said, I think we have some major issues at defensive line – both the tackles and the ends.  We don’t have the personnel to dominate the line of scrimmage like we’ve had since 2003.  So this year is going to be a bit of an adjustment in my opinion, and we’re going to struggle to stop the run at times based on what I saw in Week 1.  I hope I’m wrong, but I don’t think this is the same defensive line we’ve had and it’s going to hurt us in a game or two this year.
 
All of this brings us to Vandy.  When thinking of Vanderbilt, think of Georgia Tech less the trickery but with a better throwing quarterback. This is a team that returns 18 starters from last year’s 7-6 team that beat Boston College in the Music City Bowl.  I don’t think this is a team that will contend for the SEC East, but it is a good team that can pull an upset and will likely win 6 or 7 games this year… a lot like Washington.  This is definitely not the Vanderbilt team of yesteryear.   They coasted to an easy win over Western Carolina last week, but the level of competition improves significantly this week.
 
The wildcard for this game isn’t necessarily a player on either team as much as it is the weather.  Forecasts are for Baton Rouge to get significant rainfall Friday and Saturday during the game. Should that happen, the Tigers speed advantage will be negated to some extent.  Inside runs get a little tougher and advantage goes to the wide receivers in the passing game, which on the surface would probably be to LSU’s advantage.  The question is – will the Tigers run a vanilla, conservative offense again as they did in Seattle.  We saw how Les Miles responds to rain in the 2007 game against South Carolina – he sits on the ball.
 
I expect the Tigers to jump out relatively early, then hang on for a 24-13 victory.  Take Vanderbilt +14.5, although if it’s a relatively dry track, I’d take the Tigers.  I think we’ll see a lot of improvement this week but the weather will keep the game close.
 

September 7, 2009

Monday Morning QB -- LSU-Washington Review
By: LSUBarney

Contact LSUBarney on e-mail at orphun@gmail.com or follow LSUBarney on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/lsubarney.

I don’t think many Tiger fans expected a very uncomfortable tussle with the Washington Huskies.  Now certainly, the game was played under strange circumstances.  It was the longest road trip ever for LSU under a new defensive coordinator facing a new coaching staff at U-Dub that was coaching a team that got its future first round pick at Quarterback back from injury last season.  So yes, in retrospect, we should’ve expected the Tigers to struggle a bit more than we thought.
 
And Washington is certainly a much better team than the squad that went 0-12 last season.  From what I saw, they should win a few games in the Pac-10 as long as Jake Locker stays healthy – and they could be a bowl team in 2009.  Their coaching staff executed a great game plan and their team and fans were ready for a fight.  I came away very impressed with Steve Sarkisian, and I really think he’ll make the Huskies competitive in 2009.  There is a lot of reason for optimism in Seattle.
 
But let’s face it – the Tigers were only a few bad breaks away from losing the ball game.  We were outgained by a whopping 157 yards.  The Huskies ran a whopping 83 plays to LSU’s 48 and held the ball for almost 37 minutes.  This games had all the looks of an upset everywhere but the scoreboard.  Question marks abound throughout the Tiger football team.
 
The offensive game plan had to be one of the worst game plans I’ve ever seen as a fan of LSU football over the last 35 years.  The Tigers had a huge advantage at the edge, yet rarely tested the perimeter in favor of runs at the teeth of the Husky defense.  After the first series, Washington Defensive Coordinator Nick Holt took away the inside run and with it, most of the Tigers’ rushing attack and offense.  On the few occasions the Tigers stretched the field horizontally, they marched down with relative ease.  The game plan was ideal if you’re facing a 1-AA defensive line that you can crush with brute force, but it isn’t such a good approach against a 1-A opponent with a decent defensive line.
 
Defensively, we struggled all night.  Now you can talk about schemes and the long flight all you want.  But probably the most discouraging thing I saw was how consistently the defensive line was pushed around.  They consistently lost at the line of scrimmage and they didn’t create a lot of pressure on Jake Locker – creating one sack all night. Let’s hope this unit improves a bit, otherwise they may very well struggle against better SEC competition.  What has traditionally been a strength of LSU defenses for the last 7-8 years now appears to be a big question mark.  The zone look in the secondary allowed way too many easy “pitch-and-catch” routes for first downs, helping the Huskies convert a whopping 11 of 19 third downs (58%).
 
Fortunately for the Tigers, the September schedule is relatively light.  The Tigers need to work out issues on both sides of the ball if they’re going to have a chance against Georgia, Florida, Alabama, and Ole Miss.
 
Highlights:  Jacob Cutrera, Patrick Peterson, Terrance Tolliver
Lowlights: Game plan, first half run defense, punting
 

September 2, 2009

LSUBarney's Picks

LSU -17.5 at Washington – Tiger fans are delusional if they think that this Washington team is nearly as bad as last season’s 0-12 record would indicate.  The Huskies played most of last year without star quarterback Jake Locker, who may just be the best quarterback on the field Saturday night.  He’s back this season for a team that returns 16 starters.  Locker will make some plays and will give some hope to Husky fans looking to move past the disastrous Tyrone Willingham era.  All of that said, the Tigers have two things going for them that the Huskies are ill-equipped to face.  One – there is more team speed at the skill positions than any team Washington has faced over the last few years, and that includes Oklahoma and USC.  Trindon Holliday and Russell Shepard will cause serious matchup problems for the Huskies, especially if one or both lines up in the slot.  I just can’t see Washington slowing down this offense significantly.
 
The other problem the Huskies face in this matchup is depth.  The Tigers two-deep is pretty strong.  You have to figure that when the Tigers substitute, there won’t be nearly the dropoff as when the Huskies substitute.  All of this is why I think the 2nd half could get pretty ugly for UW.  A close game could turn into a blowout quickly – which is exactly what I expect to see.
 

Projected Box Score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
LSU	10	7	7	14	38
UW	3	7	3	0	13

	LSU	UW
First Downs	27	11
Rushes - Yds	47-263	34-110
Passing	13-23-1	13-31-2
Pass Yds	238	116

 
If I were a betting man (which I am not), I’d also take a pretty close look at these games this week.  I’ll track my leans on an ongoing basis throughout the season.
 

September 1, 2009

LSU 2009 Football Season in Preview - November

Contact LSUBarney on e-mail at orphun@gmail.com <mailto:orphun@gmail.com>  or follow LSUBarney on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/lsubarney

The season wraps up with 3 big games against SEC West rivals – Alabama, Ole Miss, and Arkansas.  None of the games will be easy as Alabama and Ole Miss are preseason Top 10 teams and the Tigers have rarely had an easy time with the Razorbacks.  If my predictions hold true, each of these games will be very significant for a Tiger team riding high with a 7-1 record.
 
@Alabama Crimson Tide

Ahh… the annual grudge match with our former head coach.   We all know he wishes he were still in Baton Rouge, but it’s too bad for him at least that he burned the bridge and we moved on to Les Miles. There is no doubting that ‘Bama will have a fierce defense this year.  For all his faults, Nick Saban can certainly coach a defense and this one returns eight starters from a team that finished 3rd nationally in total yards a year ago.  Wow.  However, we have a few things going for us in this game.  Alabama will start the year pretty thin at offensive line and they’ll be breaking in a new quarterback, Greg McElroy. The Tigers also play pretty well in Tuscaloosa – we haven’t lost there in a decade.  Tigers put it away with a late TD in a defensive struggle, 23-13.
 
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

Derek Dooley has quietly built a WAC contender in Ruston.  The Bulldogs feature a team that returns all starters on both the offensive and defensive lines, a good quarterback in Junior Ross Jenkins, and other offensive playmakers like WR Philip Rivas who almost signed with our beloved Tigers.  This one won’t quite be the cakewalk we have come to expect against in-state opponents.  Tigers win 48-17 after enduring a Crimson Tide hangover in the first half.
 
@Ole Miss Rebels

Like it or not, but the Rebels will take on the Tigers with their best team since the 2003 squad led by Eli Manning.  In fact, this team may actually be better.  The defensive line and receiving corps is as good as any in the SEC.  They have some question marks at offensive line, but aside from that they look to be a very good team as long as Jevan Snead stays healthy.  Depth behind Snead is non-existent.  An injury to him could be a crushing blow for the Rebs.  It’s hard for me to think that this team can handle all the hype – the Sports Illustrated cover was perhaps the straw that broke their back in my mind.  This is a game that always means more to Ole Miss than LSU, but finally not the case this year.  That said, I like Ole Miss to win a close game at home in front of an amped crowd.  Rebs 27-25.
 
Arkansas Razorbacks

Bobby Petrino’s squad should be considerably better in 2009 than 2008.  In fact, I think they’ll be good enough to upset the Ole Miss Rebels on October 24.  No longer does Arkansas recruit the big, burly athletes of the Houston Nutt era.  Petrino is bringing speed and spread athletes to Northwest Arkansas.  This is going to be a tough matchup for the Tigers, but I also look for this to be the one game where LSU shows up against a quality opponent and plays to its potential.  I like the defense to play really well in this one against a relatively immobile, strong armed QB in Ryan Mallett.  Tigers take down the Hogs 33-14 in Little Rock.
 
--
 
Should it play out this way, this will prove to be a very frustrating season.  Wins over Florida and Alabama will be countered by comparably inexplicable losses to Georgia and Ole Miss.  We’ll see signs of greatness and a few reminders that this isn’t quite a championship caliber football team.  But we’ll see enough to eagerly await 2010, when the Tigers will be a consensus pick to win the SEC again.
 
LSUBarney’s SEC Projections

SEC West
Ole Miss	6-2	10-2	Capital One Bowl loss to Ohio State
LSU	6-2	10-2	Sugar Bowl loss to Oklahoma
Alabama	5-3	9-3	Cotton Bowl victory over Nebraska
Arkansas	3-5	7-5	Independence Bowl victory over Notre Dame
Auburn	3-5	6-6	Liberty Bowl loss to Tulsa
Mississippi St	2-6	4-8

SEC East
Florida	11-1	7-1	BCS National Championship, loss to Texas
Georgia	9-3	6-2	Outback Bowl loss to Illinois
S Carolina	7-5	4-4	Chick Fil A Bowl victory over Boston College
Kentucky	7-5	4-4	Music City Bowl victory over Miami
Tennessee	5-7	3-5
Vanderbilt	3-9	1-7

SEC Championship – Florida 34, Ole Miss 24
 
 

August 27, 2009

LSU 2009 Football Season in Preview - October

Contact LSUBarney on e-mail at orphun@gmail.com <mailto:orphun@gmail.com> or follow LSUBarney on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/lsubarney <http://www.twitter.com/lsubarney>
 
--
 
No doubt about it – October is the make or break month for the LSU football team.  It’s feasible that we won’t know anything significant about our Tigers until Week 5 Between the Hedges in Athens.  October features a brutal three game stretch against Georgia, Florida, and Auburn where anyone should be happy with winning two out of three. Find a way to win all 3, and you have a legitimate national title contender. Here’s how I think it will shake out.
 
@Georgia Bulldogs

All the attention in the SEC East is going to the Florida Gators, and justifiably so.  But don’t be fooled, this Georgia Bulldog team is going to be very strong in the trenches – and that’s where games are won and lost.  It would not surprise me at all for Georgia to undergo the “Tee Martin” effect like we did in 2007 with Matt Flynn.  Lose a #1 draft pick at quarterback, and you actually get better because you’re returning a mature quarterback and the rest of the team is still pretty darned talented.  The thing that makes me think we can win this game is the fact that UGA plays a very difficult September schedule and they typically play just about everyone close.  On the other hand, you know the Tigers can’t help but look ahead just a little to the game against the Gators in Prime Time in Tiger Stadium.  This one could go either way and I expect it to be decided very late… I’m going to go with the Dawgs in a heartbreaker 17-16.
 
Florida Gators

I don’t know what it is, but despite returning 21 starters from a national championship team, I can’t help but think that this year won’t entirely go as planned for the Gators.  Maybe I’m too much of a contrarian, but something about this situation doesn’t quite smell right to me.  I don’t have any specific inside information or anything, but we all know from our run through the SEC in 2007 that it is very hard to run through the SEC as a prohibitive favorite – no matter how much of a talent advantage you have.  So I’m going to go on the record to say that I think the Gators will drop a game, maybe two in 2009.  Prime Time football in Tiger Stadium with an amped up crowd.  Tim Tebow leaves Tiger Stadium without a W as the Tigers win another classic 34-31.
 
Auburn Tigers

Gosh, has any game on our schedule in the last ten years ever set up to be a letdown game quite as much as this one?  Danger. Most people think Auburn will be fighting Mississippi State to stay out of the SEC West cellar.  I don’t necessarily disagree, but I don’t think this is going to be a bad team either.  Auburn is loaded with young talent at Wide Receiver – this may be the first Auburn team to have playmakers at that position in well over a decade.  Gus Malzahn’s offense can put points on the board in a hurry.  I’m very concerned about this game.  If it is in Week 3, we win by 3 touchdowns.  War Eagle puts a scare into our Tigers, but LSU prevails 27-24.
 
Tulane Green Wave

Tulane is just terrible, although you have to figure that a guy like Bob Toledo is exactly what they need to become respectable.  They do have a few good players – QB Joe Kemp and RB Andre Anderson.  But they really don’t have the athletes to seriously threaten the Tigers in 2009.  Expect to see a lot of backups in the 2nd Half as the Tigers move to 7-1 with a 41-7 victory.
 
Next up… November – the month that decides the SEC West.

August 26, 2009

LSU 2009 Football Season in Preview - September

Contact LSUBarney on e-mail at orphun@gmail.com or follow LSUBarney on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/lsubarney

--
 
I thought I’d share thoughts on what I expect to see this season in three parts – one for each month of the season. Today, we’ll look at September.  The first four games of the Tigers’ season don’t appear to be terribly difficult.  Only Vanderbilt was a bowl team in 2008 – the remaining teams on the September schedule were a combined 10-26 last year.  So it’s hard to see the Tigers emerging from the first month of the schedule with anything but a 4-0 record.  That said, I don’t necessarily expect the first four games to be as easy as some people suggest.
 
@Washington Huskies

Arguably, the Washington Huskies were the worst team from a major college program in 2008.  But this is a team that should improve with new coaching and a healthy star Quarterback, Jake Locker.  Washington doesn’t have the elite SEC-level athletes that LSU has, but they should keep the game close for at least the first half.  LSU pulls away in the 2nd half for a 38-13 victory.
 
Vanderbilt Commodores

Vandy was a bowl team in 2008 for the first time since 1982.  1982!!!  Imagine if that happened in Baton Rouge… Tiger Stadium would be half empty.  Looking briefly at the ‘Dores in 2008, five of their six losses came to teams that scored 24 points or less. This is a team that has been very good on defense and should be good again in 2009.  I see this game playing out a lot like the South Carolina game in 2007.  The Tigers jump out early and coast to a relatively unimpressive win in the home opener, 24-10.
 
Louisiana Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns

Under Les Miles, the Tigers have generally disposed of inferior competition from the have not conferences of Division I-A.  Well, except for Troy last year.  But I really think that was a bit of an anomaly.  The Tigers should coast in this one and get a lot of playing time to the second and third stringers.  Tigers cruise 55-14.
 
@Mississippi State Bulldogs

The Dawgs are a peculiar team in 2009.  They’ve finally moved to the spread, a move that really makes sense for a team that can’t consistently get top recruits against the major college football powers. I think their explosive offense will click in a few games this year and cause problems for a few unsuspecting teams.  Fortunately, the Tigers have owned Mississippi State over the last decade – LSU has won nine in a row and hasn’t really been challenged by the Dawgs since the epic overtime game in 2000.  Tigers win but after a bit of a fight 30-20.
 
Next time… October – the month that will tell us all just how good the Tigers will be in 2009.

August 17, 2009

Five Real Concerns for the Tigers in 2009
By LSUBarney

 
Contact LSUBarney on e-mail at orphun@gmail.com or follow LSUBarney on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/lsubarney

If you’ve kept up with the Tigers this preseason, you’ve probably read plenty of articles that talk about all the things that are going to go well this year.  We’ve talked about strengths on this blog just like everyone else, but what are the problems that could legitimately cause the Tigers problems in 2009.  Here are the most likely areas based on what we’ve seen in preseason:
 
1)     Placekicking – we’ve had a lot of close games over the last few years, and this year probably won’t be all that much different.  We need a somewhat automatic field goal kicker like we had with the departed Colt David.  It’s easier said than done, although we’ve been fortunate enough to come out OK at this position when in doubt.  Here’s hoping the trend continues.

2)     Lack of truly effective WR2 and WR3 – there is a lot of talent available between five-star recruits Terrance Tolliver, Reuben Randle, and QB/WR Russell Shepard along with some program guys in RJ Jackson and Chris Mitchell who could contribute.  But we have some problems if nobody really steps up to compliment Brandon LaFell.

3)     Injuries at O-Line – I guess this is almost always a major issue, but it’s particularly important in a year where almost all our depth is very young.  We simply can’t afford for Ciron Black to go down at all this year.  We return three starters, but not a lot of guys behind them have seen significant game action.  It will be very important for our offensive line depth to develop as the year progresses.

4)     Nobody steps up at Defensive End – Rahim Alem is a go-to weakside defensive end who will be critical to the pass rush this year.  Michael Brockers appears to be a major contributor at strongside defensive end along with Pep Livingston – both will be necessary to defend the run well and provide enough pass rush proficiency to keep double teams off Alem.  If these guys don’t live up to the hype, we could have trouble pressuring the opposing quarterback and blowing up holes in the run game.

5)     Unfavorable matchups for LB & Safety personnel – how many times over the last few years have we seen slow defenders try to cover quick receivers in the slot or quick running backs coming out of the backfield.  We’ve also had some problems facing mobile quarterbacks of offenses that match our athleticism.  I think Chief will put us in a better position to succeed, but you have to figure that opposing offenses will find opportunities to attack.  Here’s hoping we can respond a little better than we did last season.

August 13, 2009

Wake me up when it's over
By: LSUBarney

Pads are on and the hitting has begun.  As excited as I am for football season to be here, I'm also bored to death by the daily practice reports.  So and so played with the first-string today.  Johnny looked good today.  Coach was mad at Bobby today.  Eh.

Years ago before the Internet, we didn't have the excruciating level of detail we have today.  A radio host, if he was ambitious enough to actually make it out to a few practices, would give an occasional teaser about who looked good & who didn't.  We'd latch on to the "inside information" and eagerly await football season.  We'd get a little information at a time, but nothing particularly accurate and certainly nowhere near what we get today.  Now if you spend enough time on message boards, you can totally rewrite the depth chart.

I ain't buying it.  The Tigers have a lot of depth this year -- this is an undisputed fact.  An underclassman may break the two-deep, but overall this team has way too much talent to see too many surprises.  In fact, if your underclassmen are beating out guys who have been in the program for awhile, it's probably a bad sign.

A few other broad observations so far from fall camp:
- Themes for this year are competition and redemption -- you think this is an angry football team?
- Overall, the coaches really seem to like the talent level and the shape thanks to Tommy Moffitt.  If there's a key to this program, it's @TommyMoffitt.
- We still need players to emerge at DE and C, although competition at both positions seems to be very, very strong.
- The defense will apparently do less situational substituting -- this is another good thing.
- We need to find some consistency at kicker.

I'll continue to report on things I hear and see, but I'm pleased with where this program is and how hungry everyone around it genuinely seems to be.  Things are looking great overall.

So enjoy the fact that the cupboard is so full -- but be sure to wake me up for the first game.

August 7, 2009

Interpreting Les Miles: Reporting Day
By: LSUBarney

Those of us who have followed Les Miles’ press conferences know that he takes a measured approach to his interactions with the media. Sometimes, you just have to read between the lines to understand what he’s saying. So throughout the season, I’m going to give my best interpretation of what he’s saying to the media. The transcript of Miles’ comments comes from LSUSports.net.

Here’s the first installment – Reporting Day

Opening statement from Les Miles:
“It’s a great time of year. We’re a reconvening team that really wants to play. They’ve had a really strong summer, and frankly I expect the efforts in two-a-day camp to be what we need. We want to play dominant football out here, and frankly our team understands that.”

LSUBarney’s Interpretation >> We’re all angry about last year, and we can’t wait to get out there to prove it was an anomaly.

Miles on the Sidell Corley situation:
“We had some attrition with Sidell Corley who had a very difficult personal run, and we certainly understand football doesn’t fit everyone’s timetable. We wish him the very best, and he has success.”

LSUBarney >> The kid needs to be closer to people he trusts. I released him because I’m not a jerk like that midget that coaches at Alabama.

On if he sees a lot of the freshman class contributing:
“I think there is a lot of competition. I believe there are some guys in that freshman class that can come onto the field by need and by ability. I had a long talk with my staff this morning, and evaluation is going to be the key. We’re not going to go days when we don’t talk about our personnel. When you have a veteran team and you know who’s in, there were times when there was little conversation that needed to be had.”

LSUBarney >> Last year, we knew who we were going to start so we didn’t need to evaluate or talk about personnel. Getting the best players on the field in their natural position is a good idea. We need to try this meritocracy thing. It may just work.

On what has changed and remains the same going into this fifth camp at LSU:
“I think the last four years have been a blur. It’s gone by so fast and been so enjoyable. It’s very similar. It’s very much LSU and a great football team, and expectations are very high.”

LSUBarney >> (George W. Bush voice) Being the head football coach at LSU is hard. It’s hard.

On if 8-5 is unacceptable:
“Eight (wins) was unacceptable. To be honest with you, we used to play and are used to playing for championships. We’ll have achievement. I have to be honest with you; we won 11 games and won the SEC West in my first year here, and we fell a little short. That’s how it is. These falls are marked by great efforts, great games and certainly improvement. A team that improves and achieves certainly is worthy of that recognition, but this program is designed to hang banners in this building. You just look around, and that’s what we want to do.”

LSUBarney >> It’s hell out there. Cut a guy a break. Did I mention being the head football coach at LSU is hard?

On what the team needs to do to reach expectations:
“The team needs to buy in and understand its role, individually and as a unit. They need to gel, come together and play hard. The good news is that there’s some talent on this team.”

LSUBarney >> The bad news is that some of them are dilettantes. We have to work that out of them this Fall. Camp is going to be fun.

On if he needs to prove anything after four years:
“I’ve never felt that need. I’ve always wanted to help my team in every way, and I’m so not personally viewed. I always view what’s best for my ball club.”

LSUBarney >> I’m only answering this question because I’m a nice guy. Where are you from, the Tuscaloosa News?

On how Corley’s departure affects the defensive line:
“He was in a backup position at best, and I think it’s safe to say that he’ll be missed, but I don’t know how much we were actually going to count on him this fall.”

LSUBarney >> Lonely player, tough life circumstances, and taking exhaust from redshirt freshmen on the two-deep doesn’t keep a highly touted athlete on the roster these days. Godspeed.

On if he sees any freshmen on the defensive line contributing:
“I see Chris Davenport and a number of guys that may step up and play. Bennie Logan, Sam Montgomery, Michael Brockers and a number of guys have ability.”

LSUBarney >> I have no idea who is going to play defensive end this year. But if anyone sees Tyson Jackson, I think I can get another year of eligibility for him.

On when he quits referring to last year’s record with his team:
“I don’t know that quit referring is the exact issue. I think there are lessons that need to have been learned, and I think shared pasts and histories are common knowledge. The great thing is that there are great examples that are in this program and from past seasons, teams and players that know how to do it and know how to play.”

LSUBarney >> The guys who know how to win had better step up and lead, or we’re going to have a jolly time at the Music City Bowl.

On how this offensive line group stacks up with others he’s had here:
“The young centers I think we’ll be good. I like both my guards and both my tackles. I think we’re pretty good. I think there were some other great offensive line classes that we’ve had here. I think this may be one. I think (OG) Lyle Hitt is rounding into ability and may be one of the strengths of this line. At one point in time he was probably the newcomer. I don’t know quite how they match up, but I like them. I think we’ll have some advantages there.”

LSUBarney >> We look great and especially so in a few years. But dammit we need an SEC-caliber center and yesterday.

On more certainty at the quarterback position this year:
“I think there are two quarterbacks that have experience, and I think our football team is going to be much better by the execution at the position. Certainly Jordan Jefferson comes off a season-ending bowl experience and has really had a great summer. I think our team is looking forward to having him at quarterback.”

LSUBarney >> (writing like Bart Simpson on chalkboard) I will recruit a QB every year. I will recruit a QB every year. I will recruit a QB every year. I will recruit a QB every year. I will recruit a QB every year. I will recruit a QB every year. I will recruit a QB every year. I will recruit a QB every year. I will recruit a QB every year. I will recruit a QB every year. I will recruit a QB every year. I will recruit a QB every year. I will recruit a QB every year. I will recruit a QB every year. I will recruit a QB every year. I will recruit a QB every year. I will recruit a QB every year. I will recruit a QB every year.

On if there is some value in keeping last year’s record in the back of the players’ minds:
“I think when not talked about, there’s an understanding of what that feels like. There will be times to let go.”

LSUBarney >> Our guys can’t wait to hit someone. I feel sorry for our first opponent.

On if he’ll state Russell Shepard’s role on the team:
“If I knew it, I would tell you. We’ll find out. He’s a very talented man. He has great ability at a number of positions. He will work at quarterback.”

LSUBarney >> Shepard will play all over the field this season. I like to call it the Game Plan Time Suck. He’s going to play everywhere just so our opposition spends time thinking about how to defend him.

On if he’s counting on Rueben Randle this season:
“You bet. He’s a very bright learner and very talented man. Of course he’ll have to make strides. These two-a-day camps for the young guys, they don’t quite know what to expect, and it will take some time.”

LSUBarney >> He’s your 2nd or 3rd Wide Receiver if he can get off the line of scrimmage and actually block someone.

On what were some low moments he’s had so far as LSU coach:
“I certainly have enjoyed my time. I don’t know that I have focused in that way. I look to last year, and I see great games. I see great competition and a nice finish, but I certainly understand that there was some disappointment. I think we understand the problems that created that, and that’s being addressed routinely.”

LSUBarney >> The high expectations here in Baton Rouge don’t bother me. Really. This isn’t stressful at all. Really. There are no low moments – just opportunities to fix things. Really.

August 5, 2009

Season Preview – LSU Defense
By: LSUBarney

Although the key to the Tigers’ success this decade has been the play of the defense, we really haven’t seen great defensive performances for almost two full seasons. In fact, it could be argued that the defense hasn’t played a dominant regular season game since holding Middle Tennessee to 90 yards in a 44-0 victory on Sept. 15, 2007.

2008 was particularly painful with the return of what was supposed to be a great defense. Statistically, the defensive numbers are a bit deceiving. At first glance, it wasn’t a *horrible* year for the defense – 325 ypg average isn’t a “Lou Tepper” type performance. But that number jumps to 367 ypg and 31.8 points per game in SEC competition. What’s worse is that the defense couldn’t get a stop in critical moments, and when they did get stops they would have a bad penalty that would keep the opponent’s drive alive. The defense was consistently confused and out of position. Overall, the scheme didn’t let our athletes make plays.

To Les Miles’ credit, he addressed the problem promptly with the hiring of John Chavis from Tennessee and assistants Ron Cooper and Brick Haley. Chavis comes to LSU as one of the top defensive coordinators in the SEC, despite the fact that Tennessee’s recruiting left a lot to be desired in the last decade. He led Tennessee to a top defense in 2008, surrendering only 14 touchdowns all season despite not getting much help from the offense in the Vols’ 5-7 campaign. How many TDs did LSU’s great defenses give up over the last few years?? 2008 – 32, 2007 – 33, 2006 – 18, 2005 – 20, 2004 – 23, 2003 – 17

For this reason, Tiger fans are optimistic about the new leadership on defense. On the record, Chavis has been guarded <CLICK HERE> about prospects for the 2009 Tiger defense. We can piece together some things from player comments and things said at alumni events and to reporters:

• Chief is “more like Nick Saban,” according to DT Charles Alexander,

• “He’s not as laid-back; he’ll get on you if you make a mistake, and we need that,” said LB Jacob Cutrera,

• DT Al Jones: “We’re jumping routes much quicker, more aggressive type defense. Get to the ball, get to the ball -- we’ve done that before, but they’re putting much more emphasis on it.”

These are words that Tiger fans desperately want to hear after a tough 2008 campaign: intensity, attack, hustle, urgency. Les Miles was recently quoted as saying that he thinks this defense will be a lot like Bo Pelini’s defenses <CLICK HERE> from 2005-2007. We shall see.

Personnel wise, the Tigers appear to be talented across the board with veteran leadership throughout the unit. You may see as many as, count ‘em, 9 seniors starting on defense this year. Depth is very good as well – there really aren’t any obvious weaknesses on this 2009 LSU Tiger defense. Probably for the first time since the Marcus Spears/Marquise Hill era, the Tigers are probably more talented in the secondary than the defensive line. Patrick Peterson returns for his sophomore season at one corner with Chris Hawkins and Jai Eugene at the other corner. Safety is similarly strong with Chad Jones finally playing his natural position at Free Safety. Danny McCray will certainly see the field here and perhaps at Strong Safety backing up Ron Brooks, who won the job in the spring. You should see Karnell Hatcher on the field quite a bit as well in 2009 at Strong Safety.

There is a lot of depth in the defensive backfield – the keys to 2009 will likely be in the front 7.

1) Harry Coleman – Coleman was a starter at Strong Safety last year, but he was caught in some unfavorable matchups in the slot that really took advantage of his lack of speed as a safety. He’s a fierce hitter, but remember he is adjusting to a new position and taking on a lot more contact at OLB. Coleman’s adjustment to a new position will be a big factor in the success of the linebacker unit this year.

2) DE on the opposite side of Rahim Alem – Someone needs to step up to fill Tyson Jackson’s shoes. Pep Livingston seems to have the inside track on the other starting DE position for now, but there is a lot of young talent waiting for a chance to shine. Defensive end is probably the thinnest position on defense for the Tigers this year, and one where we need to stay healthy to have a great season.

3) Charles Alexander – we caught a big break when Alexander was granted a sixth year of eligibility by the NCAA in the offseason. You may remember the dominance of the defense when he lined up alongside Glenn Dorsey for the first few games of 2007. If he returns to form, he’ll make the entire defensive line much better. There is depth at this position, but Alexander is perhaps LSU’s best interior defensive lineman when he is 100% healthy.

Overall, I expect the Tiger defense to improve significantly from setbacks in 2008. This is a unit that has the stars and the depth to return to what we’ve seen over the last decade, last year and 2001 excepted.

 

August 3, 2009

Season Preview – LSU Offense
By: LSUBarney

2009 will tell us a lot about the future of the LSU football program. The Chick Fil A Bowl was a dominant, yet bittersweet performance. The Tigers treated Georgia Tech like a junior varsity team with a decisive and physical 38-3 whipping. But it also was bittersweet in that it showed us all that the team had a lot of potential when it could avoid turnovers and play to its talent level on defense. At the same time, it’s hard to ignore the poorer performances: a 28 point deficit to Troy in the 3rd Quarter, getting tossed around by Ole Miss, and giving up a 16 point lead to Casey Dick of all people. I think we’re the only school in the SEC that is happy to see Casey Dick graduate. But in all seriousness, I think we’re all interested in knowing if 2008 was an aberration or if we are indeed getting passed up in the SEC West. Despite what even the most optimistic of us think, the jury is still out. But the team seems to have responded with a need to put 2008 behind it and show that 2008 was just an aberration
<http://www.shreveporttimes.com/article/20090725/SPORTS0202/907250332/1031/SPORTS0301> .

Today we’ll talk about the offense – strengths and keys to success.

On offense, our strength is in the trio of senior running backs: Charles Scott, Keiland Williams, and Trindon Holliday. Each brings a different style. Scott is the inside bruiser. His vision improved significantly from 2007-2008 – he always seemed to take what the defense was giving. Williams isn’t the shiftiest back we have, but his straightline speed gives the offense a different dimension if he has a decent hole to run through. Keiland also ran a lot tougher in the 2nd half of last season than previously – that adds another dimension to his skills. Holliday has tremendous moves and gamebreaking ability. I hope he’s been working with the tennis ball machine though because he’d be even more dangerous catching a pass in the flat or from the slot. We all know what the running backs can do, and with another season under their belts this should be the strength of the offense this year.

Other keys to 2009 on offense:
1) T-Bob Hebert – it all starts with the snap, and we’re breaking in a new starter at that position. He’ll need to get acclimated to SEC-level play very quickly, and he’ll need to perform. Depth at Center is a concern although word out of spring camp was that the situation improved significantly as camp went along.

2) Quarterback – after inconsistent play at the Quarterback position, Jordan Jefferson burst onto the scene with big games against Arkansas and Georgia Tech. That said, I don’t think you can quite assume the quarterback position is solid just yet. Despite his strong play and game management, Jefferson still completed less than 50% of his passes. And although it’s hard to forget Jarrett Lee’s 7 pick-6 Interceptions last year, his numbers compare favorably to other quarterbacks recruited the same year
<http://www.ndnation.com/blog/2009/06/clausen-at-head-of-class.html> , not to mention the freshman campaign of the #1 draft pick of the Detroit Lions this year, Matthew Stafford:

 

	Comp	Att	Yds	YPC	Pct	TDs - INTs
Stafford	135	256	1749	13.0	52.7%	7-13
Lee	143	269	1873	13.1	53.2%	14-16

 

All of that is a long-winded way of saying that 1) the QB position isn’t as settled as we’d like to believe, and 2) don’t be surprised if you see Jarrett Lee play some meaningful snaps this season.

3) #2 Wide Receiver – we’ve had some great WR2s over the last 7-8 years: Michael Clayton, Devery Henderson, Craig Davis, Demetrius Byrd. For the first time in a long time, we really don’t know yet who will step up at the WR2. There are plenty of talented candidates despite the season-ending injury to Tim Molton. Terrance Tolliver, RJ Jackson, Reuben Randle, Chris Mitchell are all capable of filling the void. While we are as lean as we have been at the WR position in a longtime, we should get a meaningful contribution out of a few of those players.

Wildcard: Russell Shepard – It’s hard to say that any true freshman could totally change the game for the offense, but Shepard is just the kind of guy who could do it. He was the consensus #1 recruit in the country last season, a dual threat quarterback out of Houston who may also line up at Wide Receiver this season. Les Miles said at Media Days that Shepard will be hard to keep off the field, and he’s been praised by All-America candidate LT Ciron Black <http://www.2theadvocate.com/sports/lsu/featured/51706477.html> for his elusiveness in the open field. Shepard could also be used in “Wild Tiger” formations – can you imagine a backfield with Jordan Jefferson, Trindon Holliday, and Russell Shepard? We may just see it.

One thing is for certain, Gary Crowton probably hasn’t had as many weapons available to him as he’ll have this season.

Next week, we’ll preview the Tiger defense and its new Chief.

E-mail: orphun@gmail.com

Follow on Twitter @LSUBarney<http://www.twitter.com/lsubarney>