Vanderbilt Blog

December 8, 2009

Determining a National Champion
Plus One with a Twist
by Scott Kennedy
 

Is there any other single issue in major college football more debated than the national championship?  Rarely has there been a season that has not experienced controversy about either who should play for the championship or who actually is the champion following the bowl games.
 
This blog is going to focus only on the "plus one" method that has been talked about for several years.  Even though a proposal was denied by the BCS in 2008 to adopt the "plus one", it is still a possibility in the future. And regardless of how the BCS and conference commissioners feel, that isn't going to stop me from promoting what I believe is right and good for the spot.
 
I would really hate to see an 8 or 16 team playoff for reasons that go beyond the scope of this essay.  Phil Steele has included a great explanation on the "plus one" method in his preseason magazine for several years now.  Four teams is the best way to include those teams truly deserving of a Title shot, while also preserving the importance of the regular season, plus offer a good compromise with those wanting the status quo and those pushing for a larger playoff.  Phil has done such a good job explaining his system that I urge you to read it and I think you will come away a believer.  He makes some very good points that I won't rehash here.
 
HOWEVER, I do disagree with Phil on one major component of the 4 team "plus one" system, I say include conference champions only!
 
Phil basically takes the top 4 teams in the final BCS standings no matter if they are a conference champion or not.  This season he did tweak his system to eliminate a top 4 team if they lost to another top 4 team in the final week of the season only when played at a neutral site, such as in a conference championship game.  This would mean Michigan in 2006 would still get in even though they lost at Ohio State (since it was played in Columbus is the key for Phil).  On the other hand a team like Alabama in 08 would be excluded since they lost to Florida at a neutral site.  But Phil doesn't want a top 4 team to be ineligible for the national title if they get upset in the final game by a team outside the top 4, like Oklahoma did in 2003, or Kansas St in 1998.
 
I disagree.  Why do they get a second chance?  College football season is too short for a double elimination type arrangement.  A team must play their absolute best in order to achieve a national title shot, if a team is not good enough to win their conference they should not be considered good enough to get a national title shot.  I also feel that if a team loses an away game to a top 4 team, they too should be eliminated.  Winning on the road can be tough, but if teams want to be great, winning on the road is essential.  Losing on the road to a highly ranked team is not worthy of a second chance either.
 
Only using conference champions breaks the pool down to those truly deserving and keeps multiple teams from the same conference out which opens the door to other deserving teams as you will see below.  The SEC, Big 10 or Big 12 should not get 2 teams, half of the spots available in the pool, the conference race can and should be used to determine who gets in.  The conference races become effectively a playoff for the right to move on.  Is it right to let Michigan into the pool in 2006, extending them a 2nd chance?  Phil says Ohio St escaped with a 3 point win, I say OSU was up by double digits before a late UM garbage drive.  Or teams who do not win their division, such as Nebraska in 2001, how is it right to put the #2 Big 12 North team in the title pool along with the team that already beat them?  The best way to qualify the teams for the title pool is to use conference champions only.  It is easy, just go by on-the-field results and conference's own rules for tie-breakers then the BCS rankings as the final factor.
 
I made my feelings known last week on conference championship games and I hate to see a national title contender have their dreams ruined by some 3rd or 4th best conference team, but regardless of my personal feelings the results from the games must be respected just as the results from all previous regular season games must be.  We can't give lip service to wanting to protect the do-or-die weekly feel of the season, but then contradict that by not respecting the actual results of those games.
 
Here is a year-by-year break down using this method.  Compare it to Phil's as published in this magazine and see what you think.
 
Rankings shown are final BCS standings prior to bowl games
 
2009
1. Alabama 13-0
2. Texas 13-0
3. Cincinnati 12-0
4. TCU 12-0
 
Some will feel the system isn't fair including only 4 teams because #6 Boise is shut out.  To this I tell Boise, leave behind the 3rd weakest conference in college football and work to join the Mountain West as an upgrade. As you will see below and in later years, MWC Champion has access to a national title shot while Boise from the WAC is consistently not ranked high enough.  Boise needs to lose the albatross of a schedule from their back and play better competition on a weekly basis.  If Boise wants to compete for national titles they can not remain in the WAC.
 
Other teams: #5 Florida lost to Bama, #7 Oregon lost two games including one to Boise, #8 Ohio State is a two loss team from the Big 10 that is considerably weaker this season over prior years.
 
2008
1. Oklahoma 12-1
2. Florida 12-1
5. USC 11-1
6. Utah 12-0
 
#3 Texas and #4 Alabama did not win their conference and thus are eliminated.  Yes Texas beat Oklahoma, but we must remember that the Big 12 South finished in a three-way tie.  Texas lost the tie-breaker, how the Big 12 breaks their tie is up to them.  Texas and Alabama controlled their own destiny, but did not win the games necessary and therefore rightfully eliminated from title consideration.
 
Other teams: #7 Texas Tech also lost the Big 12 divisional tie-breaker, one-loss #8 Penn St was lightly respected, had they went undefeated they would have been high enough to qualify.  Again, it gets back to win the games scheduled and teams control their own destiny.  Interesting that Boise St went undefeated yet finished #9 and would not have been included in most 8 team playoff scenarios commonly promoted.  Boise played one ranked team in 2008.
 
2007
1. Ohio State 11-1
2. LSU 11-2
3. Virginia Tech 11-2
4. Oklahoma 11-2
 
A whacky year with multiple two-loss teams, but the plus one method works very well including the champs of the Big Ten, SEC, ACC and Big 12 who all finished in the top 4.  
 
Other teams: #5 Georgia failed to win their division, let alone conference, #6 Missouri lost to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Title,  #7 2-loss USC lost to Stanford as a 41 pt favorite, the biggest upset ever, so it is rather obvious they are not worthy here.  #8 Kansas also did not win their division.
 
2006
1. Ohio State 12-0
2. Florida 12-1
5. USC 10-2
6. Louisville 11-1
 
Ohio State had already beat #3 Michigan.  #4 LSU was not even the winner of their SEC west division.  It might seem funny these days to include Louisville in a national title pool, but in 2006 they were a very powerful team.
 
Other teams: #7 Wisconsin was 11-1 with their only loss to #3 Michigan.  The fact that Wisky did not play Ohio State is not the problem of those sorting through the rankings picking the top 4 teams, it is the problem of the Big Ten who needs to fix their scheduling anomaly.  Big Ten likes to call everyone co-champs no matter if team a lost to team b or some other combination of a tie at the top.  Big Ten has issues they need to resolve. Until that happens in Big Ten co-champ years the highest ranked team would get the nod.  The BCS isn't here to solve the Big Ten's problems for them.  #8 Boise was 12-0 and we all remember this as the year they beat Oklahoma in the Fiesta.  Their eventual bowl win not withstanding, again, they need to have a more challenging schedule to earn respect in the BCS rankings.  Accomplishing this can be done by moving to a more respected conference such as the Mountain West, perhaps then they might have had a strong enough BCS rank to put them in the 4 team pool.
 
2005
1. USC 12-0
2. Texas 12-0
3. Penn State 10-1
6. Notre Dame 9-2
 
2005 was one of those years where you would just like to stick with the current #1 vs #2 system, but this is what the plus one would look like using conference champs only.  Notice that ND would be included, much like their qualifications in the current system, should they achieve a certain spot in the rankings they will gain access to the title pool.
 
Other teams: #4 Ohio State had already lost to Penn State.  #5 Oregon was PAC 10 runner up after losing to USC.  #7 Georgia lost to Florida and Auburn in back-to-back weeks, #8 Miami lost their first and second to last game of their season.
 
2004
1. USC 12-0
2. Oklahoma 12-0
3. Auburn 12-0
6. Utah 11-0
 
All undefeated teams above.  #4 Texas finished 2nd in their division and #5 Cal was PAC 10 runner-up with a loss to USC.  Note: I'd like to know why Phil includes Utah in his scenario since #4 Texas should have been the team included if his method is consistently applied.  
 
Other teams: #5 Cal lost to USC, #7 Georgia lost to Auburn, #8 VT lost to USC.  Boise was also undefeated but ranked #9 in the final BCS, even the common 8 team playoff some promote would not have included them. Boise did not face one ranked foe all season.
 
2003
2. LSU 12-1
3. USC 11-1
4. Michigan 10-2
7. Florida St 10-2
 
The infamous 2003 season.  It was after this season that the BCS formula was drastically changed to the BCS formula we have today.  After losing in the Big 12 conference championship game to Kansas State, OU was still #1 in the BCS, but #3 in both human polls.  The #1 team in both human polls was USC although they were #3 in the BCS and were shut out of a chance for the title causing the last split national championship with the AP putting USC #1 after their Rose Bowl win.  In my system it is Oklahoma who deserved to get shut out.  Perhaps the loss to Kansas St was a fluke, but the bottom line is that Oklahoma did not play good enough to win their most important game of the year and for that they should not be granted a second chance for college football's biggest prize.
 
Other teams:  #5 Ohio St lost to Michigan and #6 Texas and #8 Tennessee weren't the best team in their division, let alone conference.
 
2002
1. Miami 12-0
2. Ohio State 13-0
3. Georgia 11-1
4. USC 11-2
 
To those thinking the #1 vs #2 system got it right, I say many would agree that SEC Champ Georgia was a really good team and deserving of a title shot.  Looking at the BCS rankings, it is possible Georgia would have been #1, certainly #2 if they had not lost to Florida.  USC was rising to power in 2002 and would have been a logical team to include as well.  
 
Other teams: #5 was 11-1 Iowa who did not face Ohio State this season.  As I described in the 2006 year, that is a Big Ten problem, not a problem for anybody else to figure out.  Play all your conference opponents Big Ten and get a true champion!  #6 Washington St lost to USC, #7 Oklahoma did win the Big 12 over #8 Kansas St, but also lost to A&M and Ok St that season diluting any argument they had to be considered among the best.
 
2001
1. Miami 11-0
3. Colorado 10-2
4. Oregon 10-1
8. Illinois 10-1
 
Another very controversial year as #2 Nebraska had previously been blown out by Colorado in the regular season and Nebraska not only didn't win the Big 12, but didn't win their division.  Colorado won the Big 12, no reason to include Nebraska as they truly were not worthy.  #4 Florida did not even win the SEC east thanks to a season finale upset to Tennessee, who finished ranked #6, but they were upset in the conference championship game by LSU who only finished ranked 13th.  #7 Texas lost to CU in the Big 12 Title game.  The next conference champion in line is Big Ten champ #8 Illinois.
 
2000
1. Oklahoma 12-0
2. Florida St 11-1
3. Miami 10-1
4. Washington 10-1
 
Miami (then in the Big East) had already beat ACC champ Florida St so FSU's inclusion in the BCS Title game was controversial.  Butch Davis' final Miami team was a very powerful and worthy of a title shot.  It was PAC 10 champ Washington that handed Miami their only loss.
 
Other teams: #5 10-1 Virginia Tech lost by 20 to Miami finishing 2nd in the Big East.  #6 Oregon St lost to Washington which ultimately sent them to the Fiesta Bowl.  #7 10-2 Florida lost convincingly to Florida St and #8 10-2 Nebraska finished second in their division.
 
1999
1. Florida St 11-0
2. Virginia Tech 11-0
3. Nebraska 11-1
4. Alabama 10-2
 
You'd think the current system #1 vs #2 is perfect this year as well, but you can't vary the system year-to-year.  #3 Nebraska was a deserving candidate as they avenged their only loss to Texas in the Big 12 Title game.  Alabama dominated then #4 Florida in the SEC Title game.
 
Other teams: #5 Tennessee and #6 Kansas St did not win their divisions.  #7 Wisconsin was a powerful team this season, but lost to Cincy as 27 pt fav and Michigan and back-to-back weeks.  Michigan was #8, but had 3 losses.
 
1998
1. Tennessee 12-0
2. Florida St 11-1
4. Ohio State 10-1
5. UCLA 10-1
 
#3 Kansas State lost the Big 12 Title game to Texas A&M knocking them out of consideration.  Ohio State was Big Ten co-champs with Wisconsin and Michigan, of the three the Buckeyes were ranked the highest so they get into the pool.  
 
Other teams: #6 Texas A&M did win the Big 12 Championship, but among their 2 losses was a defeat vs FSU.  #7 Arizona was 11-1, but had already lost to UCLA by 24.  #8 Florida wasn't the best team in their division and lost to both #1 and #2 ranked teams.
 
Wrap up

This is not perfect, nothing is.  I do think it rights some wrongs, such as the 2001 and 2003 controversial seasons.  Also, in 2008 and 2006 when the public outcry was for USC to be included, only this method of plus one with conference champs includes them in both years since they were ranked outside the final top 4 of in BCS standings.  Phil's new "tightener" only puts USC in the title pool in 2008, not 2006.
 
True, some years we have two clear #1 and #2 teams, but other years we don't and including 4 teams makes perfect sense.  Perhaps there is a rare year where more than 4 makes sense to some.  All things considered, I feel the "plus one" with only conf champs is the best and most fair compromise.  I am not going to get into all the pros and cons for the different methods as they have widely been discussed.  I mostly wanted to focus in just on this particular method.  So while I am strongly against an 8 team playoff, I didn't really want to get into making a case against the 8 team playoff, but I did briefly offer opinions on various teams each year beyond the top 4 as to why I do not think they should be included in the title pool.  Most often that reason is they already lost to somebody ranked ahead of them or failed to be the best team in their division or conference.  This method shows respect for actual game results, this in my opinion should trump everything else.
 
Again, I can not think of any other way to show more respect to the regular season then to let game results dictate who is eligible to play for the national title.  This plus one method with only conf champs really even enhances the importance of the regular season as it really puts a premium on winning one's conference.  Any other multiple team systems rewards teams for not being their conference's best, conference games potentially mean less because they can still get in with a key loss to the a divisional or conference team - this is what I'm strongly against.  Respect the results of games played, nothing should matter more.
 
Additionally, this way teams truly control their own destiny and rely less on opinion votes and computer polls than they currently do.  Style points and politicking will be a thing of the past, the bottom line will be clear, just win all your games, which is the goal of every team anyhow.  
 
I hope you enjoyed my blogs this season and I hope I have provided some food for thought on determining conference and national champions.  Maybe even Phil will adopt something for his "Determining the National Champ" article for next year's magazine.  The "plus one" method makes so much sense, but as previously been presented it still had a weakness.  Including conference champions only makes it about as close to perfect as we are going to get.

December 1, 2009

Determining a Conference Champion
By: Scott Kennedy

Perhaps the most anticipated game of the season will be played this Saturday, Florida vs Alabama in the SEC Championship game.  I won't lie, #1 vs #2 in consecutive years in a Conference Championship game is pretty exciting. However, it is the concept of a Conference Championship game that I am against; pitting divisional winners against each other rather than the two best teams in a conference doesn't seem right.  Having a prearranged winner-take-all game seems rather flawed and unnecessary as I will explain below.
 
What's the problem

Last season, Ball State finished the regular season 12-0, 8-0 in MAC and ranked 12th in the BCS entering their MAC Championship game.  Clearly Ball State was the best team over the course of the season in their conference.  The two next best teams were 6-2 and then two other teams were 5-3. Ball State was head and shoulders above the rest.  One of those 5-3 teams, Buffalo won the eastern division, yet based on conference games their 5-3 record was only good enough for FOURTH overall in the MAC.  Buffalo had losses to both MAC West 6-2 teams (C Mich, W Mich).  While they were not anywhere close to the best team in the MAC over the course of the season, because they were the best team for 3 hours on December 5th Buffalo was awarded the Conference Championship.  Buffalo was a 15.5 pt underdog in the game and returned two fumbles for TDs, one for 90 yards and one for 75 yards equating to a 28 point swing.  No objective person can respect Buffalo as the best team in the MAC in 2008.  Even with the loss, Ball State still had the best conference record at 8-1, everyone else in the league had 2+ losses, the Champ Buffalo had 3.
 
I opened with the 2008 MAC Championship because it is the most recent example of the injustice a Conference Championship game can create.  But you are probably saying "who cares about the MAC"? Let's examine some instances involving BCS conferences.  How about the SEC?
 
SEC

In 2005 a 6-2 Georgia team faced a 7-1 LSU team who's only loss on the season was an OT game vs Tennessee in their first home game following Hurricane Katrina, a game in which they led 24-7 in the 4th quarter.  LSU was 3-1 vs ranked SEC foes that season, including a win vs a 7-1 Auburn team. Georgia was just 1-2 vs ranked SEC foes.  In fact, Georgia was not the SEC's second best team.  No that would be 7-1 Auburn, who had already beaten Georgia.  So the SEC's 3rd best team won the east and was awarded a chance to play for the title and did beat LSU in the SEC Championship game. Was Georgia really the SEC's best team?  Based on their regular season wins and losses the answer would be no.
 
Perhaps that isn't a compelling enough example.  2001 illustrates everything that is wrong with this system. Tennessee was 7-1 with a late season win over then #2 Florida in the Swamp which moved the Vols to #2 in the BCS.  That season Tennessee was 3-0 vs SEC teams ranked in the top 15, 6-2 Florida was the clear second best team with a 4-0 record vs top 20 SEC teams, prior to their loss to the Vols.  Both Tennessee and Florida had already beaten the west division winner LSU.  LSU was 5-3 and lost in Knoxville and was throttled at home by the Gators.  But in an east vs west winner take all Championship game, a 3 loss LSU team emerged victorious.  Tell me, who outside of Baton Rouge feels LSU was the SEC's best team in 2001?
 
But these are just the instances where there was an upset.  There are many many more matchups where the game included fairly average team in the Title game.  
 
2003 LSU was 7-1 and atop the west with a win over 7-1 Ole Miss, the east featured three 6-2 teams who were a combined 0-3 vs the west's best LSU and Ole Miss.  Ole Miss' only loss was to LSU, yet it was 6-2 Georgia (who had already lost to LSU) that got the shot to win the SEC Championship.  
 
Georgia was a great team in 2001 with a 7-1 record only losing to 6-2 Florida.  That year Tennessee was 5-3 with a win over Arkansas also 5-3, but winner of the west.  So 3 loss Arkansas vs 1 loss Georgia when Arkansas was really the 4th best team in the SEC that year (not counting Alabama who was ineligible).  How could anyone with a straight face acknowlege Arkansas as the SEC's best had they won?
 
In 1998 the power was in the East with Tennessee at 8-0, Florida 7-1 with a loss to UT and Georgia was 6-2 with losses to only UT and UF.  Mississippi State sat atop the west division at 6-2, but had lost to a 4-7 LSU team and Kentucky who was just 4-4 in conference play.  If Mississippi State had somehow found a way to beat undefeated Tennessee, we are supposed to recognize them as SEC Champion?  That is hard for me to swallow.  
 
There are other years 1997, 1996, 1995 when Florida and Tennessee had the two best records, typically unbeaten or one loss, but 2 loss teams from the west who had already been beaten by either UF or UT were awarded a chance at a Conference Championship.  I don't get why we are giving inferior teams a shot to win their conference when they haven't shown over the course of the season they are good enough.
 
Big 12

Let me move onto the Big 12, as it has a history of upsets and mismatches in their north vs south Championship game.
 
While not an upset, look at the 2008 game.  Oklahoma was the south winner via tie-breaker.  They would face the Big 12's FIFTH best team.  Yes 5th!  OU, Texas and Texas Tech were all 7-1 each team losing one to another in their round robin of games as I'm sure we all remember.  Oklahoma State and Missouri each had a 5-3 record, but Ok St beat Mizzou meaning based on conference record and head-to-head results, Missouri was no better than the 5th best team, but was fortunate to be in the north division.  Oklahoma handled them, but what if Missouri had pulled the upset, what kind of nonsense would that have been to call Missouri 2008 Big 12 Champs?
 
Big 12 has many examples of this.  2005 5-3 Colorado was 4th best by conference record, yet played for the Championship.  Get this, in 2004 Colorado again was given the chance to win the Conference Championship. But they had a 4-4 a record based on their wins and losses that put them SIXTH in the conference.  Yes 6th!! The power was in the south and the south's 5th best team Ok St was 4-4 and beat CU head-to-head.  Imagine if Colorado had somehow won, how absurd would it have been giving the conference's 6th best team the title?
 
That brings me to 2003.  Everyone will remember 2003.  That is the last time that a team that did not win their conference played for the National Title.  8-0 Oklahoma faced a 6-2 Kansas State team. Kansas St was absolutely the 3rd best team with a head-to-head loss to 7-1 Texas.  As a 14 point underdog, K St shocked the world and would end up winning the Conference Championship.  I bet Texas felt just great about that.
 
Another huge Big 12 Championship upset is one I'm sure everyone will remember.  1996 Nebraska was 8-0 and faced the south winner 6-2 Texas.  Texas was no better than 3rd after losing to 7-1 Colorado during the regular season.  Texas was a 20.5 pt underdog and beat the 3rd ranked Huskers and derailed their attempt for a 3rd straight National Title. Coach Osborne had been against a Conference Championship and I certainly agree.  Perhaps Nebraska was not worthy of a National Title shot in 1996, but Texas as Big 12 Champion?  To that I say not worthy.  I think Colorado would agree.
 
ACC/CUSA

The story is the same in other conferences with Championship games.  
 
In 2005 a 5-3 Florida State team beat 7-1 Virginia Tech as a 14.5 pt underdog.  Miami had the second best overall ACC record at 6-2 finishing behind VT in the Coastal.  But FSU won the weak Atlantic division, won the conference and was one of the least deserving BCS bowl participants ever with an 8-4 overall record.
 
It happened in CUSA last year.  Tulsa and Rice sat atop the west division, Houston was next at 6-2.  6-2 East Carolina was the east winner, but they had already lost to Houston so that made them CUSA's 4th best team base purely on conference record and head-to-head games.  As an 11.5 pt underdog they defeated Tulsa and won the CUSA Championship when some would argue Rice or Houston were better teams based on their won-loss record.
 
If not that then what

I don't like the prearranged season ending Conference Championship games.  How many times do you have a clear top team with a commanding record vs their league opponents where a Conference Championship game isn't necessary? How many times do you have the conference's top team going against a middle of the pack team that happens to be a division winner in a weak division?  To me the best method is to play everyone in your conference over the course of the season and let the records and head-to-head wins and losses determine the champions.  
 
Not only that, but a conference large enough to have two divisions means that not every team in the conference plays one an other during the season.  Why does it make sense to create a conference where you don't play all of your league opponents?  I can't get my arms around the concept of not playing all your league teams and deciding the champion against a team that might be the 3rd, 4th or 5th best team overall in the league instead of just playing everyone through the season and letting the chips fall where they may.
 
For this we need to look no further than the PAC 10.
 
The PAC 10 is the model I would like to see every other conference evolve to.  They have a 10 team conference where everybody plays everybody over a 9 game PAC 10 schedule with 3 nonconference games. What a novel concept, to actually play everyone in your conference.  How can such an outdated idea work today?  In the 12 team conferences SEC, Big 12, ACC, CUSA they play 8 conference opponents and miss 3 teams from the other division each year.  The MAC is now a 13 team conference, but they too play 8 league games and miss the remaining 4 each season.  The Big Ten also plays 8 and then misses 2 each year in their 11 team conference.  I don't know if it is just me, but when I hear people say the Big Ten and PAC 10 need to expand, I think that is exactly the wrong direction.  Just because other conferences have season ending championship game does not mean other conferences need to follow suit.  On the contrary, things would work out much better if the Big Ten contracted and just followed the PAC 10's lead.  When the NCAA went to a 12 game schedule, the PAC 10 decided to play another league game rather than adding a 4th nonconference game as every other conference did.  PAC 10 stepped up the competition level on their schedules, everyone else stepped down making the 12th game a "money game" vs overmatched opponents often from IAA.  The PAC 10 needs to be applauded and used as an example of the right way to schedule.
 
Look at the PAC 10 this year.  Thursday, Oregon State and Oregon will play for the PAC 10 Title.  That is the way it worked out based on results from actual games, not some arbitrary selection of divisional winners whether or not they are indeed the best teams to play for a conference title.  Last season in their season finale, had Oregon State beat Oregon then Oregon State would have won the PAC 10 and went to the Rose Bowl.  It is often thought of as a one team conference due to USC's dominance, but people forget that just one league game going a different way late in the year gives us a different PAC 10 champ.  I mentioned OSU's finale last year, in 2007 if Arizona State had beat USC on 11/22 or if USC would have lost on 12/1 then Az St would have won the PAC 10.  In 2006, thanks to UCLA's upset of USC on 12/2, the door would have been open for either Cal or Oregon State to win the conference if they had won just one more game that season.  In 2005 Oregon and then in 2004 Cal would have won the PAC 10 if they had beaten USC, same for Washington State in 2003.  My point here is by playing everyone in the league the teams control their own destiny based on who they beat  They either earn it or the don't.  They don't get a shot at the title even though they weren't good enough to earn it as a divisional conference system often creates.
 
What about deciding conference winner by tie breakers

Let's talk about tie breakers.  Fans or players might not like their season to end with a tie breaker determining who wins the conference.  But tie breakers can not be avoided because they are used very frequently to determine the divisional winners.  There is nothing wrong with tie breakers, even in multiple team scenarios. The Big 12 tie breaker was controversial last season between Texas, Oklahoma and Texas Tech because they allowed outside criteria to break their tie, the BCS rankings.  While flawed, this was the Big 12's preferred method when dropping down to the 5th tie breaker. That is their choice.  A much better method would be to use actual results from games to break the ties.  That could mean points scored or points allowed.  In this hyper-sensitive world we live in, points scored would never be allowed because it could promote running scores up.  So take the fewest points allowed figure.  In effect the team that is best at stopping their opponents from scoring points is the tie breaker should it be needed after the more traditional tie breakers.  What is wrong with that, it sounds like a fine tie breaker.  Again, Conference Championship games do not eliminate tie breakers, often a tie breaker was used to decide who the teams are playing in said Championship game.
 
Games this week and season finales

Florida vs Alabama gets most of the headlines this week because of it's impact on the BCS National Title game. They still would have played in the method I prefer, it just would have been at some other point in the season.  It still would have meant just as much, it just would have occurred in the normal flow of the season.  How about the Big 12 Title game...if 2 loss Nebraska were to hand Texas their 1st loss of the season, Nebraska would be named Big 12 Champion after Texas has shown over the whole season they are the best team in the conference.  Texas would still have one less loss than Nebraska, but so it would go Nebraska would win the Big 12.  If this game was played just in the course of the season, then the loss would not hurt Texas should they end with just one loss, they would still be Big 12 Champion, that's the way it should be.
 
Thursday's game between Oregon State and Oregon, the winner of that game is the legitimate PAC 10 Champ and Rose Bowl participant.  When Cincinnati plays Pitt we get a matchup of the two legitimate teams based on their season long accomplishments worthy of winning the Big East and earning a likely Orange Bowl bid.  We didn't need a pre-orchestrated PAC 10 or Big East Championship game to get here.  Iowa at Ohio State a few weeks ago determined the Big Ten Champion this season.  Last year on the final week of the Big Ten season Penn State, Ohio State and Michigan St were all alive for the conference crown and a Rose Bowl birth.  Who can forget Michigan at Ohio State in 2006?  Much like Alabama and Florida, that game not only determined the Big Ten Champion, but one of the two teams in the National Championship game and it didn't take a conference split into divisions to get there.  Oh sure, I know Wisconsin didn't play Ohio St, although they did lose to Michigan.  If the Big Ten played all their teams then that wouldn't have been an issue.  Go back and look at the 2002 when Iowa and Ohio State both were undefeated in the Big Ten.  It doesn't take a Conference Championship to solve that, simply have a conference where everybody plays everybody and issue resolved.
 
Now I know the reason we have Conference Championship games, money.  Making decisions based on the amount of money it brings in doesn't mean that is the right decision for the sport.  Conference Championship games might be popular and surely generate tons of revenue, but the fact people ignore is that they often are unfair when one team is a clear top team in a league and must face either a team they've already beaten once or face a team that has a significantly weaker record.  Rematches in the Conference Championship game happen, why should the second game count for more than the first?  In 2001 Tennessee beat LSU in the regular season, but the results of that game ended up not mattering, all that mattered in the end was LSU's season ending win.  Georgia Tech already beat Clemson, yet they will face again this week in the ACC Championship.  If Clemson wins all that really means is the teams split two games, but instead it will mean Clemson is the ACC Champion and GT's previous win didn't count for much of anything.  It isn't right.
 
Think about it

I don't know if I have won anybody over to my way of thinking, but I at least hope that you understand that Conference Championship games aren't the only way.  It isn't like I have some crazy idea here, I am only in favor of doing what had been done for decades upon decades prior to 1992 when the SEC had the first Conference Championship game.  Maybe I've presented some problems with these games that you hadn't thought about before.  Because I know the way the media loves these types of games and the amount of money they generate isn't going to have any conference commissioners complaining - you won't hear any flaws with that system from them.  Next time you hear somebody say the Big 10 needs to expand and have a title game, tell them to take a step back for a minute.  There is another way, a better way.

November 24, 2009

Week 12 Recap - Vanderbilt at Tennessee
By: Scott Kennedy

Tennessee jumped out 10-0 lead with Hardesty rushing for about 70 yards in the first quarter and it looked like it would be a long night.
 
But following their opening three-and-out first possession, on their second possession Vanderbilt put together a nice drive featuring a 13 yd completion to Ashley and a 21 yd Norman run working the way down to UT 15 with a first down.  VU would only gain one yard on the next 3 plays and settle for a 31 yd FG (9 plays 48 yds).
 
After forcing a UT punt, Vanderbilt tied the game on a 11 play 92 yd TD drive, aided by 29 yards from UT penalties.  The six minute drive featured a good mix of run and pass, Vanderbilt pretty much moved the ball at will and registered 6 first downs in the process (2 by penalty).  The TD was an Adams roll-out to Van Rensburg at the goal line.
 
10-10 Vanderbilt had the momentum in their favor, but Tennessee converted three 3rd downs on their 11 play 72 yd drive to regain the lead 17-10.  The drive featured five plays of 9 yards or more.  The TD reception was close to being incomplete, but ended up looking like a good catch by Denarious Moore.
 
With time running down in the first half Vanderbilt ended up on UT's 38 following a 7 play 36 yard drive. Adams connected to Barden near the first down mark, but he ran backwards, sideways and out of bounds creating a 4th and 2.  Johnson decided to go for it, but Adam's pass to Cole fell incomplete with :35 left in the half.
 
That play proved to be huge, instead of Vanderbilt going on for points before half, Tennessee takes over with 3 time outs and aggressively went for points of their own. Crompton's first down pass is complete and is aided by a roughing the passer call moving the ball to the Vanderbilt 35 in just one play.  Later with :05 left Crompton hits their TE on a post for a 16 yd TD.     
 
24-10 halftime.  
 
First Half Stats
1st downs VU 11 - UT 16
Rush yards VU 75 - UT 110
Pass yards VU 80 - UT 176
Total yards VU 155 - UT 286
penalties VU 2-23, UT 5-63
3rd downs VU 50%, UT 57%
TOP VU 14, UT 16
 
So was the rout on?  Were the Commodores going to hand their heads unexpectedly being down 2 TDs?  Would you believe Tennessee offense would not generate one more point the rest of the game?
 
Vanderbilt came out and couldn't do much with the opening possession of the 2nd half (Umoh dropped a would-be first down pass).  After a punt Jamie Graham nearly got a tipped INT down the sideline on 2nd down, but Graham would get a second chance, this time another tipped pass over the middle setting Vandy up at the UT 44.  The INT snapped Crompton's streak one shy of Clausen's school record.
 
Vanderbilt works down to the UT 10 with a 2nd and 7, but is unable to gain anything further, threw high and behind Cole on slant missing potential TD.  27 yd FG  24-13.
 
The next 5 drives went back and forth, none of them penetrating FG range.  4 of the 5 drives ended in punts, the other was a failed 4th down attempt by UT.  Kiffin took some blame for the 2nd half offensive performance because he took the ball out of the QBs hands I believe his words were.  Yet Crompton attempted 17 passes on four 2nd half possessions, by my count that is the exact number of attempts he had in the first half. Only UT's final drive was exclusively runs.  I think Kiffin either didn't want to give credit to Vandy's D or acknowledge their offensive shortcomings.
 
Vanderbilt got the ball with about 6 minutes left in the 4th down by 11 at their own 31. Vanderbilt was keyed by a 32 yd pass to Barden over Rico McCoy, eventually they would work their way to a 1st and goal at the 8. Two plays later Tennessee appeared to have an INT in the EZ by Rogan, but pass interference was called (questionable?) awarding Vandy the ball at the 2.  A false start on first down moved it back to the 7, but following a sack VU would be kick a 32 yd FG blowing a prime opportunity to take a big chunk out of the lead. 24-16.
 
Vanderbilt's onside kick failed, but VU did get the ball back although with just :26 left.  Adams was under duress and tried to throw the ball away, but it was instead caught by DL Wes Brown and returned for a time expiring defensive score.  31-16.
 
Game stats
1st downs VU 20 - UT 24
Rush yards VU 123 - UT 201
Pass yards VU 174 - UT 221
Total yards VU 297 - UT 422
penalties VU 6-50 , UT 9-95
3rd downs VU 33% , UT 50%
TOP VU 29:40, UT 30:20
 
Not sure how Tennessee fans feel about this game, but I doubt they are happy. Vanderbilt scored it's most points vs an SEC opponent vs the much talked about Monte Kiffin D.  Vanderbilt had 11 first downs in the 1st half, the most since mid September. Vanderbilt held the ball for their best time of possession this season 29:40 to Tennessee's 30:20, Vanderbilt ranks 120 out of 120 teams in time of possession averaging just under 26 minutes entering last week's game.
 
It was a game that Tennessee looked like it might turn into a blowout early and late in the first half, but credit to Vanderbilt for they fought hard and fought their way back and kept chipping into Tennessee's lead to make it a one score game late 4th quarter.  The final margin of 15 is nothing more than a lucky misleading final with the defensive Volunteer score.  Vanderbilt played Tennessee within one score, take away from that what you will.
 
Notables:

Warren Norman accumulated 152 total yards, 1941 for the season and good enough to break Hershel Walker's SEC freshman all purpose yardage record.  Norman also broke Vanderbilt's all-time record of 1827.  For his efforts, Norman was named SEC freshman of week.
 
UT Sr RB Montario Hardesty had a career high 171 yards.
 
Srs Patrick Benoist and Myron Lewis missed the game with injuries.  Couple that with Sr Ryan Hamilton and Vandy's defense was missing 101 career starts last week.  In street clothes Benoist and Hamilton were two of the three captains sent out for the coin toss.  WR/PR Alex Washington also missed the game.  
 
Injuries are an issue for every team, some more than others.  When you consider the attrition this team suffered going back through the offseason, it is amazing how many key players weren't able to contribute this season or had limited roles.  In total only 5 Commodores started all 12 games.  
 
Final thoughts:

I've enjoyed covering Vanderbilt for the season, although it would have been a lot more fun had they been a better team.  As I think I mentioned in my first blog, I am not any more a Vanderbilt fan than I am a Oklahoma fan, a Rutgers fan or a Washington fan.  I am a fan of every team and no team at the same time.  I just love college football. Vanderbilt seemed like a great team to follow this year, with some great defensive players back, some expected offensive improvement, how would they build upon their breakthrough 2008 campaign?  We all know how it worked out.  Hopefully you enjoyed the coverage and were able to get something out of the blogs.
 
I'd like to thank Phil Steele and his staff for the opportunity to submit my blogs on this website.  I've been a dedicated follower of Phil Steele since the mid 1990s and I have a great deal of respect for his knowledge and insight so it was special for me to be able to be part of his website.
 
Vanderbilt's season has finished, but the college football season still has 2 weeks remaining.  I would like to post two more blogs on college football topics I have very strong and passionate feelings about, conference title games and methods of determining a national champion.  I don't really know how many people read these blogs, but if you are interested keep an eye out over the next two weeks and I will share with you some of my thoughts on 1) why I hate conference championship games and 2) why the "plus one" method works for the national championship, but not exactly like it has been presented before.

November 19, 2009

Week 12- Vanderbilt 2-9 (0-7) at Tennessee 5-5 (2-4), 7:00 EST
By: Scott Kennedy 

TV: ESPNU
Radio: 104.5 Nashville, 107.3 Knoxville, 199 XM, 212 Sirius
Line (as of Thursday afternoon): 16.5 / 17 / 16.5 / 17.5 / 17
Total: 45.5 / 45
Money Line: -800 / +600
 
Tennessee / Vanderbilt SEC rankings
Offense:
Scoring: 6 / 12
Rushing: 8 / 7
Passing: 3 / 12
Total: 6 / 12
3rd Down %: 8 / 10
 
Defense:
Scoring: 6 / 8
Rushing: 7 / 12
Passing: 6 / 2
Total: 6 / 9
3rd Down %: 5 / 10
 
First Downs: 3 / 11
 
KO return: 6 / 9
Punt return: 6 / 12
 
Turnover Margin: +4 / +3
 
Red Zone Offense: 5 / 12
Red Zone Defense: 9 / 11
 
Individual notables:

Rushing - UT Hardesty #4 95.6 ypg, VU Norman #7 64.5 ypg
 
All Purpose - VU Norman #1 162.6 ypg, UT Hardesty #8 115.5 ypg
 
Passing - UT Crompton #3 212.4 ypg, 23-10 ratio, 58.5% (#8 efficiency)
 
Tackles - VU Marve #1 10 tkl per game, UT #4 McCoy 8.4 tpg, VU Benoist #6 7.7 tpg
 
Sacks - UT Chris Walker #5 6 sacks, UT Ben Martin #18 3.5, VU Greg Billinger 3 sacks
 
Force Fumbles - UT McCoy #1 4, VU Marve #4 3
 
PBUs / INT - VU Myron Lewis #5 12 pbu / #4 4 INT
 
Series History

Tennessee leads 71-28-5 with games dating back to the very earliest days of UT and VU football in 1892.  This is Vanderbilt's most played opponent and Tennessee's second most played.  It is the SEC's 4th most played rivalry.
 
Tennessee had been on a 22 game winning streak before the upset in 2005. Since then Tennessee has started a new streak winning the last 3.  Vanderbilt has only beat Tennessee 3 times in the last 40 years.
 
Last year marked the first time in decades Vanderbilt was favored vs UT, but the 3-7 Vols were able to send Fulmer off a winner with season ending wins over Vandy and then Kentucky.
 
The 2005 game was interesting because UT entered the year highly hyped with a top 5 ranking, but faltered and entered this game with just a 4-5 record. Vanderbilt on the other hand started the season 4-0 with bowl talk before they lost to Mid Tenn in a tight one and then would lose 6 straight traveling to Knoxville to close the season as 11 pt dogs.  With Vandy's bowl hopes expired, the Commodores stomped on the Vol's bowl hopes and handed Fulmer his first losing season at UT.
 
The average line for the last 9 games in Knoxville dating back to 1991 has been 23 with a couple as low as 11 and as high as 34 and 36.  The average score in those contests 34.3 to 10.3 with a couple nailbiters and a fair share of blowouts. The last 5 games both home and away have been decided by an average of less than 10 pts.
 
The game

After going through the ringer this season with injuries, Vanderbilt will be without more key players this week.  Sr CB Myron Lewis will not play due to torn meniscus in his knee.  Lewis is obviously a huge loss, without him Vanderbilt's nickel and dime packages get very thin as players rotate.  The top 3 CBs would be Hayward, Graham and Foster with Trey Wilson seeing the field more.  Foster and Wilson are both true Fr. With Lewis out now and Hamilton's injury earlier, Vanderbilt will take the field without both of their returning starters and leaders in the defensive backfield.  Additionally, LB Patrick Benoist may not play due to concussion suffered last week.  The senior is the team's 2nd leading tackler.  As of Wednesday he was not practicing.  Good news, LT Thomas Welch returned to practice Wednesday.
 
A defense that has struggled much of the season against the run and now without Lewis and potentially Benoist is going to be a problem vs Montario Hardesty.  Vandy rush D ranked 107, ugh.  Hardesty is having an excellent season, a co 1st team All SEC year along with Mark Ingram in my opinion, so arguably the best RB Vanderbilt has faced this year.  Hardesty is running with passion and has avoided injuries that have previously haunted his career.
 
What is worse for Vanderbilt is that QB Jonathan Crompton has rebounded very well from his early season struggles.  Crompton hasn't thrown an INT in his last 119 attempts (24 attempts shy of school record).  In his last 6 games, Crompton is 59% for 1473 yards and a 16-2 ratio.  Vanderbilt has made their plans clear - to apply pressure by coming after Crompton (with 2 true Fr seeing the field at CB remember).  With Crompton's history one has to wonder if he is due to revert back to a more mistake prone QB at some point.  I thought it might have come last week vs Ole Miss, but while he might not have been great, he wasn't bad either.  Hopefully Vanderbilt can give UT fans a reason to remember why they hate him so much, but I'm not so sure.
 
Coming into this game, I get the feeling that Tennessee might have been a bit better on defense last season, on that losing team the defense was a bright spot. This season, Auburn and Ole Miss have both handed Monte's defense pretty good face washings.  Perhaps one thing to be concerned about, after allowing Auburn 460 yards of offense, the very next week they put the clamps down on a previously competent Georgia offense.  Now the Vols look to atone for their failures at Ole Miss (allowed 492 yards) in this their final home game of the year vs a team that has been the definition of offensive inconsistency this season. That doesn't sound good.
 
I think it is pretty clear that Tennessee's defense has failed to live up to their hype at times this year, but hard not to side with them vs the Vanderbilt offense. Tennessee has what Florida and perhaps some other teams did not and that is motivation.  Motivation to make up for last week's poor effort and also come out strong in this final home game.  Senior day can sometimes provide some distractions for the home team, but I would believe Tennessee is pretty used to dealing with distractions by now.
 
I actually want no part in Vanderbilt in this one.  The only advantage I think Vanderbilt has here is kick return with Norman because Tennessee has been pretty bad at times in kick coverage.  Their only other hope is to force Crompton to play like he did to start the season.  In that event the game could be something like a 17-13 UT win, but I think it is much more reasonable to think Crompton keeps it up in a game that might look like 34-6.

November 17, 2009

Week 11 Recap, Kentucky at Vanderbilt
By: Scott Kennedy

Well so much for our best chance at an SEC win, another double-digit home loss.  As they've done throughout the season, there was some hope that ultimately came crashing down to earth.  The first half offered some optimism with a 13-10 lead, a defense forcing turnovers and an offense that was able to do some things (50% 3rd down rate, held time of poss edge).  But then the 2nd half was comprised of everything upsetting and forgettable about this season (one first down, zero 3rd down conversions, allowed 220 yards on D in the half).
 
Vanderbilt has now lost 7 straight and lost every game but one at home.  That week 1 win vs IAA Western Carolina seems like ages ago.  Every home loss vs FBS foes has been by double digits and that didn't change vs Kentucky.
 
It is especially upsetting because as I said last week, Kentucky and Vanderbilt fans both feel this is a game they can and need to win.  Kentucky does have a decent team and I felt they have a better D than Georgia Tech, but the kind of pitiful offensive performance Vandy had in the second half is beyond excuse.  Vanderbilt should have been able to have more success than they did.
 
And it was sad to see Kentucky blue the majority color in the stands, after all it was senior day.  But it is a two edged sword, a 2-8 team is hard to get excited about, hard to fill the stands especially a program like Vanderbilt.
 
But you have to give Kentucky credit, their fans traveled, their team played well, made halftime adjustments and took it to the Dores.
 
I'm not going to go into much detail on the game, but will hit on some of the key points.
 
Vanderbilt did hold a 13-10 halftime lead, but UK had a 184-124 yard edge.  Two tipped passes were picked off setting Vandy up for a 39yd FG drive and a 20yd TD drive (with 21 yards came on a 3rd and 11 TD pass).  So while Vanderbilt did make some plays on offense, they weren't particularly good.
 
After struggling with the passing game in the 1st half, UK came out and ran 5 straight times for 7, 7, 7, 12 and 1 yard gains.  UK would only attempt one pass (which they completed) on the drive eventually going 75 yards in 10 plays for the go-ahead TD.
 
It was a trend that would continue.  Kentucky only attempted 3 passes in the 2nd half and dominated the game on the ground for a total of 308 yards, their most since 355 vs Indiana in 04 (most vs an SEC team since 1995).  The half included two 70+ yard TD drives and two other multiple play 30+ yard drives.  Vanderbilt defense just could not stop them from snap one of the 2nd half.  It surely didn't help that Sr LB Patrick Benoist (concussion) and starting CB Casey Hayard (migraines) missed the 2nd half due to injuries.
 
Kentucky defense was another story.  Reportedly Rich Brooks told his defense they needed to shutout Vanderbilt in the 2nd half and that they did.  Vandy went three-and-out 4 times, only gained 1 first down, zero 3rd down conversions, netted just 31 total yards, Adams completed just 1 of 7 attempts.  The running game never got going.  The OL couldn't open holes, both tackles played hurt...for the game and Norman ran 12 times for 52 yards, Stacy 9 for 21.  Norman's 8 and 14 yard runs were the only offensive highlights of the 2nd half (his back-to-back runs provided the only first down).  Still he had a couple negative runs and only had 19 yards total for the half.
 
There isn't one thing that went right in the second half, but like ground hog day it was a combination of poor OL play, poor QB play, poor receiver play and good opposing defense.
 
People like to make excuses for the Commodore defense at times this season following bad performances and it is of course true that the more they are on the field, the more they wear down, but there is some truth in the dismal 107th  NCAA rush D ranking too. Look at how UK gashed the D in the opening 2nd half drive.  They've played better than the score showed at times this year, but they have really been poor at times as well.  
 
Not a real fun game to recap.  I'll have a preview of the Tennessee game up later this week.

November 12, 2009

Week 11-Kentucky 5-4 (1-4) at Vanderbilt 2-8 (0-6), 12:20 EST
By: Scott Kennedy

TV:  ESPN Gameplan, SEC Network
Radio: Nashville 104.5, Lexington 98.1, XM 201, Sirius 214
Line (as of Thursday morning):  UK -3 / 3.5
Total: 43.5 / 43
Money Line: -160 / +140
 
Kentucky / Vanderbilt SEC rankings
Offense:
Scoring: T-7 / 12
Rushing: 5 / 7
Passing: 11 / 12
Total: 9 / 11
3rd Down %: 4 / 10
 
Defense:
Scoring: 8 / 7
Rushing: 12 / 11
Passing: 4 / 3
Total: 10 / 9
3rd Down %: 12 / 8
 
First Downs: 7 / 11
 
KO return: 5 / 8
Punt return: 2 / 11
 
Turnover Margin: 8 (+0) / 7 (+2)
 
Red Zone Offense: 8 / 12
Red Zone Defense: 5 / 11
 
 
Individual SEC player rankings:
Warren Norman #6 rushing 65.8 ypg, #4 kick return 27.2 (3 TD), #1 all purpose yards 169.6 ypg
 
Brett Upson #4 punting 42.8 avg
 
Derrick Locke #5 rushing 74.6 ypg, #1 kick return 31.2 avg (1 TD), #4 all purpose yards 142.2 ypg
 
Randall Cobb #5 scoring 7.5 ppg, #2 non-passing TDs (one behind Bama RB Ingram), #1 punt returns 15.8 avg, #9 kick return 25 avg (only 10 attempts), #3 all purpose yards 145.8 ypg
 
Total Tackles:
VU: #1 Chris Marve 97, #3 Patrick Benoist 80
UK: #9 Micah Johnson 68
 
Team sacks leaders:
VU: Greg Billinger 3.5
UK: Corey Peters 4, DeQuin Evans 4
 
Tackles for loss:
VU: Casey Hayward 8.5
UK: Corey Peters 7.5
 
Pass Breakups:
VU: Myron Lewis 10, Casey Hayward 8
UK: Same Maxwell 11, Randall Burden 9
 
INTs:
VU: Myron Lewis 3
UK: Sam Maxwell 4
 
 
Series History

Kentucky leads 39-38-4.  First meeting 1896, Vanderbilt won 16 of the first 17 games with the other a 0-0 tie.  UK's first win was 1939.  Kentucky has won 7 of the last 10 games, including the last two in Nashville.
 
Since SEC expansion Kentucky has been favored 13 of 17 games, in that span UK has won 10 SU and covered 6 as a fav and 3 as a dog for 9 covers overall (1999 was the only time they won, but did not cover 19-17 giving 3).  UK has been favored in the last 3 going 2-1 SU and ATS.  Average score in the last 17 UK 25.5 - 13.75, avg score in the last 3 UK 29.6 - 26.3.
 
Last year was a memorable one for Vanderbilt fans.  After opening the 2008 season 5-0, Vandy went on a 4 game slide and entered the UK game 5-4 needing one win for bowl eligibility.  Fueled by 118 rushing yards from QB Chris Nickson and DJ Moore's 2 TD receptions and 2 INTs, Commodores came away with 31-24 win (24-7 halftime).  Vanderbilt outgained the Wildcats 368 to 241 and held a 21 to 12 FD advantage.  UK was also held to 1 for 10 on 3rd down while Vandy converted 7 of 15.
 
About Kentucky

Wildcats come in off a 37-12 win over Eastern Kentucky, which the team treated almost like a bye week as an opportunity to rest their offensive stars WR/QB Randall Cobb (sprained thumb) and RB Derrick Locke (knee) and get other players healthy for their stretch run.  Many or most, including Cobb and Locke are expected to play in this week.  
 
Kentucky needs a win for bowl eligibility and this game looks to be their best chance with trips to Georgia and home vs Tennessee remaining.  They have won 3 of their last 4 with an impressive win at Auburn, but a win vs ULM and a loss to Mississippi State were less than stellar performances.  
 
In a near upset at South Carolina 5 weeks ago, starting QB Mike Hartline was injured with a torn MCL.  Hartline was coming along nicely and his injury threw a wrench into UK's offensive plans.  In his absence Fr Mike Newton has started and Jr Will Fidler has seen action as well.  While the passing game has been more inconsistent Newton has similar stats to Hartline in completion % and TD-INT ratio, but the attempts and yard per game are much lower due to Randall Cobb's appearances at QB.  His play in the "wild Cobb" has been a big part of the offense since Hartline went out with 240 yards rushing in his last 3 games, although after playing QB much of last season he has only attempted 7 passes this year.
 
Other than Hartline, Cobb and Locke, UK's depth has been tested at key defensive positions as well.  Headlines were made this summer when Sr DE Jeremy Jarmon was suspended by the NCAA for use of a banned substance (which is somewhat controversial in Jarmon's defense).  Mid season, Cats lost both their starting CBs.  Trevard Lindley (considered a top CB in the league) and Paul Warford each missed 4 and 2 games respectively.  
 
Younger players have stepped up and now some of the previously banged up players are starting to reenter the lineup, most everyone should be available for this week's game.  Hartline practiced Tuesday and his return will depend how he does through the week.  Locke will be back at RB as will Cobb who might play with a splint on his hand.  Lindley and Warford returned last week and while it was reported that Lindley had a set-back, they both should play this week.
 
About Vanderbilt

Kentucky has gone through a battle with injuries, but we all know that a major factor for Vanderbilt's season going off the rails is due to injuries at key WR, OL, DL and S.  I'm not sure if anybody realized what a huge loss WR Justin Wheeler was at the time this spring, but the lack of playmakers at WR became very evident when the season began.  What happens if Ryan Hamilton doesn't get hurt in week 2?  Or RT James Williams isn't lost for the season in the same game?  Both those losses so early in the season have really hurt the team.  DE Steve Stone missed half the season.  Other key players have missed games here and there.  We all love what Stacy and Norman have done at RB, but not having a leader like Jared Hawkins available for the majority of the season is big loss as well.
 
Vanderbilt stands 0-6 in SEC play.  The last time Vandy went winless in the SEC was 2002, Bobby Johnson's first year.  Broderick Stewart says "these next two games are going to be so important for us".  
 
WR John Cole is from Kentucky and was named 2007 Gatorade Kentucky Player of the Year.
 
Fr RB Warren Norman is 109 yards short of Hershel Walker's 1980 NCAA freshman record of 1805 all purpose yards.
 
This is the team's final home game, Senior day.  24 seniors, 15 players with atleast 10 career starts, will be honored.  It is a great bunch of players, a great bunch of men.  
 
Mackenzi Adams, starting QB
Bo Baggarley, LB
Patrick Benoist, starting LB
Greg Billinger, starting DT
Joel Caldwell, starting S
Ryan Custer, G
Chris DeGeorge, TE
Justin Green, TE/WR
Ryan Hamilton, starting S prior to injury
Jared Hawkins, 2008 starting RB
Eric Hensley, OG
Chris Johnson, LB
John Laughrey, K
Myron Lewis, starting CB
Gaston Miller, RB
Chris Reinert, WR
Broderick Steward, starting DE
Steven Stone, starting DE
Brent Trice, starting LB/S
Brett Upson, starting P
Bradley Vierling, starting C
Alex Washington, starting WR
Thomas Welch, starting OT
Justin Wheeler, 2008 starting WR

My thoughts

When Kentucky and Vanderbilt fans look at the upcoming season's schedule there is one game they count as a probable win, this one.  For two of the SEC's weaker teams conference wins can be hard to come by, but this game provides both teams an opportunity to bag a scarce SEC win.  Each team has had their "breakthrough" season with 4-4 league marks (UK in 04, Vandy 08), but typically it is just 1, 2 or sometimes 3 conference wins.  Kentucky won just 2 last season, 2 in 05 and 1 in 04 and 03.  Vandy won just 2 in 07 and only 1 in 06, 04 and 03.  So this game is big and historically important for both teams.
 
These teams have alot similarities despite the difference in the overall record and this is a pretty even game.  Randall Cobb is the best offensive player on the field for either team and you have to give UK and edge at WR.  But the only thing separating RBs Derrick Locke and Warren Norman is experience.  UK likes their depth at RB, we have Zac Stacy as well.  Both teams have great kick return units.  UK fields some very good LBs as does Vandy.  UK has some great DBs, so does Vandy.  Both OLs and DLs are pretty even as well.  Kentucky is more dynamic on offense than Vandy, but I like the way our defense matches up with them.
 
It will be interesting to see how UK does at QB this week, if Hartline returns, how rusty he is and how much they rely on Cobb at that spot.  Cobb played alot of QB with Hartline out, but not as much when Hartline was healthy.
 
This is really a game that Vanderbilt needs to win and can win.  Kentucky is a good team, but they aren't really much better overall than the Commodores.  Watching the last 3 games, even the GT game minus the turnovers and the meltdown that followed, it is obvious Vanderbilt is playing about as good as they have all season.  In this emotional setting, I see them finally grabbing a win.  Remember, UK was run over big time by Miss St and their 36-13 win over ULM wasn't all that impressive as Phil pointed out in his weekly news and notes 3 weeks ago.
 
I can see why Vegas posted UK as the chalk here, but I think Vandy plus the 3.5 is good value in this situation. True, Kentucky may the healthiest they've been in a long while, but if Vanderbilt plays as good as they have lately with some moderate improvements they are very capable of winning this game.  

November 10, 2009

Week 10 recap-Vanderbilt at Florida
By: Scott Kennedy

It's not ever a mentality you want from your team, but no doubt many Vanderbilt fans found comfort in a moral victory vs the defending Champs and current #1 ranked Gators.  After all Florida was a 5 TD favorite, in the Swamp, at night. Florida was fresh off their burial of Georgia in perhaps their most complete SEC game of the year while Vandy's season of horrors was coming in off a 28 point home implosion to GT.  27-3 what gives, must have been the halftime score right? Nope that is the final.  And in fact it could have very easily been just 20-3 final as Vanderbilt gift wrapped a 4th quarter TD for a 4 play 13-yard TD drive.  And although they had to go a little further, earlier in the game an INT set UF up for a 35 yard TD drive.

There are two things people need to understand if they don't already:  

1 - this is not the 2008 Gators.  The loss of Murphy, Harvin, perhaps OC/QB coach Mullen, the injury to Fr WR DeBose have resulted in a predictable, sluggish and often boring Florida offense.  Their team seems to lack fire and desire alot of the time, surprising for such a veteran team that openly has talked about avoiding complacency. There actions have not matched their words.  There are problems on the OL, the running game and even Tebow, despite what the stats might say, he doesn't always make the best decision with his passes and is responsible for many if not most of the sacks allowed this year by not getting rid of the ball.

2 - more importantly this Vanderbilt team has not shown one ounce of quit this season. They may have been out manned, out played, out coached, they've made mistakes and been unable to capitalize on the mistakes of others, but they play to the best of their ability and give it their all.  That is all you can ask.

This team had so many chances to give up on the season, mail it in...after all it is just same old Vandy, that is what people say.  I'm far from content with this season.  It sucks.  The team and coaches have failed in a variety of areas. The offensive production has been beyond bad, pitiful at times.  It is painful because in some games just one or two plays different and that record might look more like 4-6 or 5-5, even 6-4 instead of 2-8. Bottom line is the record, how many did you win how many did you lose. But between all of that, this team never gave up.  They play hard.  

So while the easy explanation is that Florida wasn't motivated for the game, Florida came out with their B game.  That might be true, although I think that is just how they've played for most of the year anyway, it is who they are.  The crowd never really got into it, but Vanderbilt never let them get into it either.  It isn't simply a let down game, such a simple explanation doesn't give Vanderbilt their due.  Vanderbilt's defense played Florida about as good as anyone has this season.  

The game

The best offense Vandy could muster came on the opening drives of the first and second halves.  They went 45 yards in 11 plays including two 3rd down conversions and 3 first downs overall to open the game only to punt on 4th and 8 from the 35.  Not getting points on that drive hurt.  It hurt more when the punt went in for a touchback. The strategy of punting from the 35 can be debated, but you are on the road vs the #1 team in the country, take some chances.

Fast forward past two three-and-outs, an INT (directly led to short UF TD drive where UF got a 25 yd TD run on 4th down) and two other forgettable first half drives.

In the second half following a UF three-and-out and punt, Vanderbilt puts together a 9 play 54 yd drive to the UF 15 keyed by a 30 yd Warren Norman run, but ultimately kick a 32 yd FG on 4th and 10.  At this point the game is just 13-3 Florida.

On Florida's next drive they convert a 4th down and 1, eventually getting a 3rd and goal for a TD and 20-3 lead.  

Three drives later, the second poor snap of the night forces punter Brett Upson down to get the ball off the ground, in the process his knee touches killing the play and handing the ball to the Gators at the Vandy 13. Florida finds the end zone on 3rd down on somewhat of a lucky pass with two receivers in the area and Tebow throwing off his back foot, 27-3.  Earlier in the game a slightly high snap and bad catch by Upson resulted in a fumble, but he was able to elude Chris Rainy I think it was for Florida avoiding sure disaster - finding a way to pick up the ball avoid the tackle and actually punt the ball away.  Unfortunately the second punt snap mistake cost them.

Two of Florida's three TD drives were under 40 yards due to turnovers.
 
Adams well he looked good at times, he wasn't great, but not awful either. Neither him or Smith always make the best decisions and they don't see the field and defenders as well as you'd like.  Utlimately his numbers look much like Smith's would have 13 of 29 (45%), 100 yards, one pick.  The INT was a pretty ugly throw, but a throw I've seen Smith make several times as well. Just not reading the coverage and throwing the ball at the wrong moment and throws it right in the hands of a LB.
 
Vanderbilt pass blocked pretty well, Florida entered the game among the SEC leaders in sacks, but they didn't get even one and were only credited with 2 QB hurries.  Vanderbilt on the other hand sacked Tebow 4 times for 30 yards in losses with 5 different players getting in on the action.
 
Would you believe that Vanderbilt had a better 3rd down conversion percentage than Florida?  Yup.  Vandy converted 7 of their 16 attempts for 44%, Florida on the other hand went just 4 of 13 for 31%.  Florida entered the game #1 SEC in offensive and defensive conversions.  In fact it was Vanderbilt's second best conversion rate of the year (best vs GT).  It was the worst conversion percentage that Gator defense has allowed this season. Vandy was able to send Florida three-and-out 3 times, Florida had only gone three-and-out 26 times over their 18 game winning streak, so Vandy D certainly did better than what Florida is accustomed to.
 
Florida had outscored opponents 75-9 in the first quarter this season. Florida led 3-0 after one quarter vs Vandy.
 
One area that you have to compliment Florida was the kick coverage units. Warren Norman was held to under 20 yards on 5 returns.  Despite not having any returns of note, he did break the SEC record for return yards in a season.  As usual, Alex Washington did absolutely nothing with his 2 punt returns.  Florida does have great punt coverage unit, but Washington's season average ranks 55th out of 62 ranked punt returners in the ncaa.  It would be nice to see somebody else handle punt returns - Jamie Graham?
 
Vanderbilt committed their fewest penalties of the season, just 2 for 15 yards.
 
Coach Johnson's Monday Press Conference:

• "thought we played a little better on offense...the last two weeks we have  become a more efficient on offense"
• "we have some youth at key positions or we don't have a player available  for one reason or another.  I think those are some of the reasons why we  haven't moved ahead on offense"
• about playing spoiler now "we don't even talk about being in that  role"
• about LT Thomas Welch playing this week "it might be a reach".  One  source labeled Welch as questionable this week.

Kentucky preview coming soon.

November 5, 2009

Week 10 - Vanderbilt 2-7 (0-5) at #1 Florida 8-0 (6-0) - 7:15 EST
By: Scott Kennedy

TV: ESPN 2
Radio: Nashville 104.5, Gainesville 103.7, XM 200, Sirius 217
Line (as of Thursday morning): -32.5 / 33.5 / 34 / 34.5 / 35
Total: 44.5 / 45.5 / 46 / 46.5 / 45.5 / 46 / 46.5 / 47
Money Line: none
 
Florida / Vanderbilt SEC rankings
Offense:
Scoring: 1 / 12
Rushing: 1 / 6
Passing: 7 /11
Total: 1 / 10
3rd Down % 1 (47%) / 10 (35%)
 
Defense:
Scoring: 1 / 7
Rushing: 2 / 11
Passing: 1 / 3
Total: 1 / 7
3rd Down %: 1 (24%) / 10 (38%)
 
First Downs: 1 / 11
 
INTs: 1 / 7
 
KO return: 2 / 5
 
Turnover Margin: +3 / +3
 
Red Zone Offense: 9 / 12
Red Zone Defense: 6 / 11
 
Tebow leads the league in pass efficiency.  Florida DEs Dunlap and Cunningham are ranked 2 and 4 in sacks.
 
Warren Norman leads the league in all purpose yards (169.6 per).  Chris Marve is SEC leader in tackles averaging 10 a game.
 
Series History

Florida leads 30-9-2, has won the last 18 and is 17-1-1 at home.  Last Vanderbilt victory was 1988, last win in Gainesville was 1945.  The teams have faced each other every year since 1992, Florida has never lost to Vanderbilt since SEC expansion that year.  Florida has been ranked in the top 10 eleven times in that span (7x top five).   Since 92 the average score is 37-15.  The average spread in these years is 22.5.  This year's 35 point spread is the highest since the Spurrier era 01 (35.5) and 95-97 (42, 43, 36.5).  Florida has only covered 8 of the last 17 in the series.  The 4 meetings between Vanderbilt under Coach Johnson vs Meyer's Gators have been split ATS with the average score UF 41.25 - VU 24.25.  
 
No doubt the most memorable game in the series was the 2005 double overtime game.  The game in which Jay Cutler became Vanderbilt's all time leading passer and took Florida to the wire.  After being tied 14 at the half, Vanderbilt twice fell behind by 14 points in the 2nd half. 28-14 and then 35-21 with just 4:11 left.  But Vanderbilt scored a TD and then recovered the onside kick and scored again with just :54 left.  Everyone probably remembers what happened next.  After catching the TD pass, Earl Bennett showed just the slightest bit of celebration and was flagged for unsportsmanlike conduct, a penalty in which forced an 18 yard extra point attempt.  But Coach Johnson was going to go for 2 and the win rather than the tying extra point.  Florida emerged victorious in the 2nd OT.  That penalty is perhaps the most known, but just one of many bad calls Vanderbilt feels have gone against them over the years.  And it is interesting to note that this season Florida has been aided by some very questionable calls as well that have been getting alot of attention.  But of course in this upcoming game I don't think anyone should fear that a bad call or two is going to decide the outcome this time.
 
Florida's 18 game winning streak is the nation's longest, also longest in school history and longest in SEC history over the last 15 years.  
 
Game / team notes:

Bob Davie is scheduled to do the game so we are going to hear lots of Huges with the silent H and the word "now" to close every other sentence.  
 
Sr QB Mackenzie Adams will get his first start of the season for injured Larry Smith.  Adams has started 9 career games and played in 40.  His last start ironically came against Florida last season.  Adams came off the bench to lead a comeback vs Auburn and also was QB when Vandy won at #6 SC.  He is a QB with both bright and not so bright spots over his years as Vandy QB.  Some fans have often called for Mac to be put in the game this year when Smith was struggling early in the season.
 
LT Thomas Welch has been ruled out, meaning rFr Ryan Seymour will make his first start.  Seymour has seen action in 7 games this season and will face a tough test against Florida's top notch DEs Dunlap and Cunningham.  1st string RT James Williams was lost for the season in week 2 and Vanderbilt's OL has really struggled for most of the season.
 
Florida LB Brandon Spikes has been in the news this week after video showed his hand going inside UGA RB Washaun Ealey at an attempt the media has been saying was an "eye gouge".  Ealey however says Spikes didn't come close to his eyes and doesn't believe he should be suspended.  It was announced earlier this week Spikes would sit the first half as a result of his actions.  Now, perhaps after more and more media outrage, Spikes reportedly has asked to serve a one game suspension which Meyer agreed to.  While Spikes is one of the Gator's best defenders, he has already missed action this year due to injury.
 
Florida RB Coach Kenny Carter was on the Vanderbilt coaching staff from 2004-07 also as RB coach and recruiting coordinator.
 
CB Myron Lewis is the only Vanderbilt player from Florida.
 
Thoughts:

I don't know what to say about this game.  Florida answered some questions last week with an impressive showing vs Georgia, but games against Arkansas and Mississippi State still leave one wondering what kind of team they really are.  If they execute and play up to their potential they will win by 42, but you could have pretty much said the same thing about the Ark and Miss St games as well.  I tend to think Florida's performance vs Georgia last week might be the exception rather than the rule.  Florida has rarely been crisp and hit on all cylinders this season.  The first quarter of the Kentucky game is about as good as it has been in SEC play.  Maybe Florida was a victim of the "flat spot" coming off the LSU game.  This game fits that bill as well, off Georgia with South Carolina on deck and little old Vanderbilt in the middle.
 
I know the defense got ripped last week, but I think they will play good enough and the offense will do just enough to hang within the 5 TD point spread.  After allowing 56 points and 600 yards, the defense's pride is on the line.  And going up against a Florida offense that has lacked consistency and big plays, they might be able to keep the game respectable.  I have just a little more faith in Adams at QB, although Smith was definitely improving.  Avoiding mistakes will be key for the offense, and really that is something that doesn't exactly instill much confidence going up against the Gator D. Still I'd rather take the generous 35 and hope for the best.
 

November 4, 2009

Week 9 Recap: Georgia Tech at Vanderbilt
By: Scott Kennedy

That was gut wrenching to watch. An epic implosion! In losing 56-31, would you believe Vandy actually led 31-28 in the 3rd qrt and the offense looked as good as it had all year? Then the wheels fell off.

Impressive as the 31 points and nearly 400 yards of offense are (360y leading up to the 31 pts, 40 after that), the defense broke down allowing their most points since 2001 and GT nearly doubled Vandy’s yards allowed per game with 597 total yards (Vandy had allowed 320 per game previously). Turnovers did put the D in repeated bad situations in the 2nd half, but it isn’t like they were consistently stuffing Tech before that either.

Where to start with this game?

1st half:

Vanderbilt’s offense was clicking despite QB Smith being injured on their second drive and did not return. Following GT’s opening TD drive, Smith led Vanderbilt on a 8 play 71y TD drive. After a GT punt, Smith and then Mackenzie Adams, led a 7 play 88y TD drive for a 14-7 lead. Yards were coming in chunks with big plays on the ground and through the air. Smith and Adams combined to hit 4 of 6 for 85 yards and Smith had a 35y run in which he was injured on.

Then the offense shut down. GT tied the game at 14 and Vandy would only gain one first down on their next two drives, falling behind 14-28 in the process. An Adams fumble set up a 2 play 22y Tech scoring drive.

Warren Norman to the rescue! For the third time this season Norman returned a KO for a TD. Norman is now tied with Willie Gault for the most KO TDs in a season (SEC record) and broke DJ Moore’s kick return yardage record as well. 21-28.

The kick return was a shot in the arm for both the defense and the offense as GT went three-and-out and Vandy went 79y in 3 plays keyed by a 62y Stacy TD run to tie the game 28-28.

For the half Vandy gained 246 yards, GT had 306. Not surprisingly Tech had a 2:1 time of possession edge.

2nd half:

Well, let’s start with the good. Vandy takes the opening drive 12 plays, 81y, but settle for a 23y FG. The drive featured 3 first downs, two 3rd down conversions, one a tipped pass that was caught by Umoh (not intended for him) that went for 42 yards. Vandy leads 31-28!

Now the bad and it got real bad.

GT’s drive starts with a big run from Dwyer who also had a big run on Tech’s opening drive of the 1st half. Vanderbilt does force and recover a fumble on their own 3, but it just delays the coming onslaught. Vandy goes three-and-out, Tech takes over at the VU 40 and are in the end zone 5 minutes later. The drive featured two 3rd down conversions and a 4th and 1 thanks to a Vanderbilt offsides penalty. 35-31 Tech and they never looked back.

After a fumble and punt and another fumble, GT scored TDs on a 2 play 19y drive and a 1 play 87y pass and finally a 5 play 38y drive for a mind boggling 56-31 lead. Tech ended the game at the VU 23.

After the opening drive of the half Vanderbilt would only have 2 more first downs the rest of the game (one called back by holding) and about 40 yards on just 15 plays. It was as much of a disastrous performance as possible really.

Final Stats:
Total yards 397-597, Rushing yards 218-404, Passing yards 179-193, First downs 15-28, TOP 39:45 - 20:15, 3rd down conv 71% - 55% - all edges GT.

This game was a huge opportunity lost. The best offensive performance vs any team with a pulse. Stacy looked near 100% running for the first time in a long while. Big plays in the passing game, the running game, special teams. It all looked so great for about 35 minutes of game action. Then the mistakes kicked in and the way the defense was playing...well, there was just no way the defense was going to win this game for the team.

The stats show it, but in watching it, I’ve never seen a Vanderbilt defense look so bad. As much as people, myself included, like to talk up and show respect for out defense, this game was embarrassing. They did force a few punts in the first half, but GT also popped frequent big plays and beat the secondary on numerous occasions. Myron Lewis might have an NFL future, but this game will not make his highlight reel. Matched up with Demaryius Thomas, Thomas repeatedly got the best of him and Hayward allowed Peeples to go flying by for a 87y TD reception. Allowing yards and plays on the ground vs GT is one thing, but allowing them to beat you through the air is another. The front 7 was active as would be expected. LB Chris Marve recorded a career high 18 tackles, LB Trice had 12 (9 first half), DT Smotherman had career high 6. There were only two tackles for loss in the game (one each Smotherman, Hayward). DT Billinger forced his first career fumble, recovered by LB Stokes the first of his career. Still they weren’t always in position and often missed tackles.

Injuries:

QB Larry Smith is out for the year with a torn hamstring. 5th year Sr Mackenzie Adams will start the remaining 3 games.
LT Thomas Welch reinjured ankle vs GT and is doubtful this week (22 consecutive starts)
RB Jared Hawkins has been dealing with his foot injury all season, missed the GT game and may be out this week as well.
RB Zac Stacy has battled his ankle injury all season, but had a huge game vs GT and says “I’ve got my step back now”.

October 29, 2009

Week 9 Vanderbilt Preview
By: Scott Kennedy

Week 9 - #11 Georgia Tech (7-1, 5-1) at Vanderbilt (2-6, 0-5) - 7:30 EST

 

TV: Comcast Sports, ESPN Gameplan

Radio: 104.5 Nashville, 790am Atlanta, XM 141, Sirius 121

Line (as of Thursday morning): 13.5 / 12 / 12.5 / 12 / 12.5

Total: 46.5 / 47

Money Line:  GT -420 /  Vandy +330

 

Georgia Tech / Vanderbilt NCAA rankings

Offense:

Scoring: 20 / 110

Rushing: 2 / 38

Passing: 116 / 111

Total: 27 / 98

3rd Down %: 5 (52%) / 98 (33%)

 

Defense:

Scoring: 63 / 23

Rushing: 53 / 85

Passing: 75 / 7

Total: 64 / 34

3rd Down %: 77 / 24

 

Turnover Margin: both T-29

 

Red Zone Offense: 86 / 113

Red Zone Defense: 22 / 112

 

Series History

 

Georgia Tech leads 18-15-3.  This is the 3rd game this decade, 34 of the meetings were from 1892-1967.  Georgia Tech has won the last two, 2002 (-20') 45-3 and 2003 (-7) 24-17 (ot) and GT has won 10 of the last 11.  Vanderbilt's last win was 12 games ago in 1941.  GT is Vanderbilt's 3rd most played non-SEC school.

 

While at Navy, current GT coach Paul Johnson went 2-0 vs VU with an upset win of 10 in 2003 and a noncovering 3 point win in 04.

 

Paul Johnson and Bobby Johnson have also faced off at the IAA level when they were at Georgia Southern and Furman respectively.  Paul's teams posted a record of 4-2 in those games making him 6-2 overall vs Bobby.

 

The match-up

 

Tech comes in ranked #11 in the BCS rankings, in the driver's seat for the ACC Coastal Division and a potential ACC Championship.  Their offensive machine has only been stopped once all season, vs Miami where their offense was totally disrupted for their lowest total yards (228), lowest rush yards (95), fewest plays (54) of the season.  For perspective, GT has gained over 400 yards vs every other opponent except VT (360) and has rushed for over 300 yards vs every other opponent except Miss St (213, but 266 passing).  When their offense is clicking it is near impossible to stop.  Check their 52% 3rd down conversion rate, 73% 4th down conversion rate and NCAA #1 35 minutes time of possession and it is clear just how hard they are to get off the field. 

 During GT's 5 game win streak they have held the ball for an average of 21:20 in the second half!  Tech is limiting teams second half possessions, Virginia had just 3 possession after halftime, Mississippi St and UNC just 4.  This sounds like bad recipe for Vandy.  Vanderbilt's TOP avg is only 27 minutes, among the lowest in the country. 

 Against a similar offense, Vanderbilt had a 24-36 time of possession deficit to Army.  Army ran for 222 and 3.9 ypc.  One can only hope that experience and practice time vs the Army triple option translates to success here.  No doubt GT has far superior athletes to Army's team, and while the teams are somewhat different in style, the principles of the system are still the same.  GT might find it tough to match Army's intensity level however.  An SEC team traveling to West Point is rare, GT is in an ACC conference sandwich.

 Just trying to look on the bright side, there could be some positives for Vandy's offense going up against a GT defense that ranks in the bottom 3rd in ACC total D, passing D and 3rd down conversion allowed.  While it might be baby steps, I think Vanderbilt's offense is getting better.  I the offense is due for a breakout game, like scoring just one TD for instance!  Seriously, it goes without saying that if there is any hope for Vanderbilt to win this game they are going to have to be very productive on offense, stay on the field and convert in the red zone.  This is not the kind of opponent Vandy can have frequent three-and-outs against. 

 GT's defensive play makers are DE Derrick Morgan (8.5 sacks, leads ACC in sacks and tfl) and CB Morgan Burnett (4 INT, 8 pbu).  As a unit they have had some struggles vs competent offenses like VT, FSU, Miss St, Miami, Clemson.  But they've put the clamps down vs inconsistent offensive teams like UNC and Virginia holding them both under 200 yards of total offense and below 10 points per game.  Vanderbilt would obviously compare with the later. 

 

The game boils down to our offense being on the field and keeping theirs off.  It might be hard to imagine our offense being very efficient, but the defense could hold up well as long as they don't get wore down.  I like the UNC D, but their D was on the field for 42 minutes, Virginia almost 43!  The GT D is mostly average, they can be exposed and have been exposed against other teams.  Often their offense becomes their best defense by staying on the field.  Vanderbilt has a defense that can match-up with this style of play.  I think our front 7 can handle the FB dives and QB dives.  For me the key is our DBs getting off the terrific downfield blocks GT does and have guys like Lewis, Hayward and company in position to make the tackles on the pitch men.  Hayward has 7.5 tackles for loss, Richardson 3.5.  These guys can fly up to the line and be there to make the stop if the pitch comes.  The key is just shedding the blocks and getting in position to tackle the pitch man.  That is what kills teams vs GT and lets their RBs sprint down the sideline for big gainers.

 The next issue becomes stopping their rare, but often deadly, passing game.  Tech will not and can not make a living throwing the ball and really Nesbit isn't that great of a passer with 47% completions on about 10 attempts a game.  But they have a way of catching the defense off guard a couple times a game and can hit some big plays.  WR Dmaryius Thomas has become a contender for the Biletnikoff Award in an option offense.  He is putting up the numbers, 1st ACC in receiving 93 yards per game, 1st in the nation at 25 yards per reception, 6 catches of 50+.  His 30 catches are almost 8 times as many as the #2 guy.  This guy needs to be monitored.  The play of safeties Richardson and Caldwell will be critical.

 Special Teams

 Vanderbilt's Warren Norman is the first player in team history to return two kickoffs for TD in one season.  Norman is #2 SEC kick return avg (29) and is #1 SEC in all purpose yards largely due to his return game.  For what it's worth, GT ranks 95th in kick return defense, 23.84 avg 1 TD allowed.  GT has a special teams weapon of their own, punt returner Jerrard Tarrant, #1 NCAA 19.9 avg with 2 TDs.  Vanderbilt's net hasn't been very good this year due to some early season struggles, but Upson has really been kicking well lately and had a great game vs S Carolina.  The FG kicking of both teams seems about equal with % in the mid 60s, but GT's Blair is much more experienced.

What will happen?

I don't think GT will win out.  There is a loss waiting for them somewhere, one of those games that sneaks up on them when they are least expecting it.  If that happens it will either by vs Vandy, Wake or at Duke.  Wake should have their attention since the Deacons beat GT in the 2006 ACC Championship.  With Duke fighting for bowl eligibility and respect, GT figures to not overlook them.  That leaves lowly 2-6 Vanderbilt, a nonleague game that Tech won't be emotionally high to play.  Vandy however has the best defense out of all those teams, but also possess the weakest offense.  It might surprise some, but this game should be winnable.  This is Vandy's 2nd to last home game and stand 1-4 at home this year with the only victory week 1 vs W Carolina.  The team knows how close they were to winning last week.  If that inspires them to come out with fire and passion and discipline with an offense that continues to progress, Vandy can win this game.  If they are hanging their heads thinking about a lost season and regress on offense and execution then Tech will roll them.

 

Link to Vanderbilt's season stats

http://vucommodores.cstv.com/sports/m-footbl/stats/2009-2010/teamcume.html#TEAM.TEM

October 26, 2009

On one hand it felt really great seeing the offense move the ball and have this game very winnable in the 4th, but on the other it was so painfully close that the frustration of missed plays and bad calls just keeps repeating themselves in my head.
 
 
The Game
 
Probably the most unbelievable thing was Larry Smith's start.  He hit his first 7 passes, every one in the 1st qrt.  By the time he threw his first incompletion VU had racked up 5 first downs.  A 16 play 76y drive spanned the 1st and 2nd qrts reaching the SC 8.  However, the incompletions began.  Eric Norwood had an INT hit him right in his hands in what likely would have been a 90y pick six for SC.  Two plays later Smith threw a great pass that hit Barden right in the hands in the front corner of the EZ, but it was dropped.  Yes we were lucky that Norwood dropped his pick, but Barden has to make that catch, can't blame Smith on that one.  All went for not on this drive when a 25y FG was missed.
 
Three drives later starting at midfield SC gained a few yards before hitting a 35y TD pass for a 7-0 lead.  The pass is marred in controversy, more on that later.
 
On the ensuing kick off, Warren Norman took the ball right up the middle and raced for a 99y TD.
 
7-7
 
At the half SC had a 11-8 FD, 238-112 yard and 3 minute TOP advantage.  But 6 penalties for 57y hurt SC along with their poor field position resulting in moving the ball a good bit, but stalled drives.  SC had 5 drives begin at or inside their own 20.  The yardage discrepancy with the closeness on the scoreboard was similar to last year's upset.
 
Vanderbilt opened the 2nd half with a punt, but were able to down the ball inside the SC 1 and following a SC three-and-out took over with the ball at the SC 43 (Washington made a fair catch, looked like he had room to run).  Vandy gashed the SC D for 39y on 5 straight runs down to the SC 4.  Smith's 3rd down pass to Barden went incomplete as SC had great coverage.  21y FG.
 
10-7 Vandy!

SC goes three-and-out for their 2nd time this half, the teams exchange a few punts.  Vandy's final drive of the 3rd qrt included a 3rd and 12 conversion from their own 18 that went 43y to Barden.  Smith scrambled out and Barden worked behind the SC DBs that were coming up due to Smith's running.  Unfortunately the next 3 plays netted just 1 yard and 2 incompletions.  Upson's punt was angled and knocked out of bounds inside the 1 for the second time of the game!
 
SC began the 4th qrt 99 yards away, but went deep right away with a great pass to Gurley who caught the 43y pass one handed against Myron Lewis' best efforts.  The very next play Garcia hit Jeffery for 23y and just like that SC was at the Vandy 33.  Defensive pressure forces Garcia into a bad throw, one that Caldwell misjudged, but should have easily picked off really.  It would have ended the scoring threat and put Vandy back in control.  Two plays later, on 3rd and 20, Garcia found Jeffery crossing open ahead of nickel back Eddie Foster in the middle of the field for a 43y TD.  
 
14-10 SC

The next two Vandy drives go three-and-out.  On the first Smith missed an open Graham which would have been a nice gainer and the very next play was nearly picked on a tipped pass.  At this point in the game SC had a 383 to 225 yard advantage yet only led by 4.
 
On SC's next 2 drives Vandy's defense bends but does not break getting the ball back twice, the last time sacking Garcia on 4th down at the VU 30.
 
With 4:00 left Vanderbilt was 65y away needing a TD.  Picking up 3 first downs including a 4th down conversion they reached the SC 25 with a 1st and 10.  The pivotal play was 3rd and 8, after only rushing 3 on several prior plays, SC brings a blitz forcing Smith to panic run straight backwards and get a grounding call.  On 4th and 32 there was little hope when pressure broke through Smith is forced to scramble to his left with pressure right on his heels and could not throw (right handed going left) nor stop running so he burst ahead but momentum took him out of bounds after just gaining 8 yards.
 
14-10 Final

Controversy

A week after the suspension of an SEC officiating crew for calls in the Arkansas-Florida game (same crew from the LSU-Georgia game) questionable calls and replay reviews had Vanderbilt fans fired up.  
 
The first controversial call occurred on SC's first drive when LB Marve appeared to strip RB Miles for a Vandy fumble recovery inside the 15.  It was ruled a fumble on the field, but replay overturned it.  I looked closely at the the play and think the replay officials did rule correctly, but it was very close.  Other (most?) Vanderbilt fans probably disagree.
 
A much more egregious call was DL Moore's deep TD reception for SC's first score.  Moore had to really stretch and reach for the ball near the sideline of the EZ.  In doing so when the ball hit his hands it was bobbled and by the time he had full control and possession his left foot had come off the ground and his right foot clearly was half out of bounds.  It was ruled a TD on the field and withstood a look from replay.  The replay booth must have believed he possessed the ball with his left foot still in bounds, something that didn't appear to be the case to me upon close review.  A South Carolina news outlet even called the replay of the TD "fortuitous".
 
There were some no calls on SC that some complain about, but that works both ways I suppose.  For instance some SC fans felt that Lewis should have been called for interference on the one handed catch by Gurley.  The Moore TD upheld by replay is the biggest and most upsetting one.
 
It has been a bad few weeks for SEC officials with other controversies this week in the Florida-Miss St and Tennessee-Bama games as well.
 
Game stats

VU:  15 FD, 141 rush (3.8 ypc) / 132 pass yards (7.8 ypc), 273 total yards, 30% 3rd down, 3 sacks (4 QB hurries, 3 by Stewart), 6 penalties 53y.
 
Smith: 17-34-0-132, 45 net rushing (sacked 3x)
Norman: 83 rushing (5.5), 99y KO TD, 5 rec 4y
Cole: 4 rec 37y
Upson: 48y punting avg, long 64
Richardson: 9.5 tkl, 1 pbu
Benoist: 6.5 tkl, tfl, sack, qbh
 
SC: 18 TD, 119 rush (3.2) / 312 pass yards (14.2 ypc), 431 total yards, 37.5% 3rd down, 3 sacks (4 QB hurries), 9 penalties 77.
 
Garcia 22-33-0-312- 2 TD, 15 net rushing (sacked 3x)
Miles: 102 (5.7), 5 rec 27y
Jeffery: 8 rec 161y, 43y TD
Lanning: 42.2 punting avg, long 55
Norwood: 3.5 tkl, 2 tfl, pbu, qbh
 
Conclusion

Spurrier was not happy with the result, he wasn't fooled by the gaudy offensive numbers, upset with the offenses ability to sustain drives and score points.  I just think it is funny because not sustaining drives and lack of points is the same thing Vanderbilt complains about, but never has been close to 400y vs any quality opponent.
 
It was the first time this season Commodores allowed over 400 yards, first time for a 300 yard passer and gave up their most yards per play of the season (6.2).  It didn't feel like Vandy's D played that bad, but obviously Carolina hit several big game changing plays.  The D got the pressure necessary on Garcia most of the time, but Garcia got the better of them on a few occasions.
 
The offense wasn't great, but it also wasn't terrible.  There were no turnovers and Smith hit 17 of 34 for 50% completions, the first time he's been at or over 50% vs any SEC team and only the 3rd time this season.  There were still some big drops which have haunted the team throughout the season.  
 
The biggest issue is really the red zone scoring.  Vandy entered the game last in the SEC and 113th nationally with just 67% scores inside the 20 (10 TDs, 8 FGs in 27 attempts).  This week Barden drops a TD and they miss a FG on one drive and another they settle for a FG kick from the 4 yard line.  Vanderbilt has not scored an offensive TD in 3 weeks and only 2 all year vs teams not named W Carolina and Rice.
 
I pointed out I saw some positives on the offense vs Georgia and there were more vs SC, but the only thing that really matters is points and they still aren't there yet.
 
After injuries have wreaked havoc all season long LT Welch and C Vierling played though injuries, but I don't believe there were any noteworthy new injuries.  DE Kadri was actually able to play as did Steve Stone.  Their return will be a nice boost to DL ability and depth.
 
It is a very tough loss.  Stewart said "it hurts to lose, but this game tonight...we should have won that game".  A win there would have helped and healed alot of things, 3-5 would provide just a bit of hope and positives, instead Vandy is 2-6 with two highly ranked opponents remaining.   

October 21, 2009

Week #8 South Carolina
By: Scott Kennedy

Week 8 Vanderbilt (2-5, 0-4) at #24 South Carolina (5-2, 2-2) - 7:00 EST

Gamecock Homecoming
 
TV: ESPNU
Radio: 104.5 Nashville, 107.5 Columbia, XM 217, Sirius 201
Line (open/changes/current as of Wednesday afternoon): 11.5 / 12.5
Total: 38.5
Money Line: +375 VU / -475 SC
 
SEC Statistical Rankings after week 7:

South Carolina / Vanderbilt
Offense
Scoring: 10 / 12
Rushing: 9 / 7
Passing: 4 / 12
Total: 8 / 11
3rd Down %: 3 / 11 (33%)
 
Defense
Scoring: 6 / 5
Rushing: 9 / 10
Passing: 3 / 2
Total: 4 / 6
3rd Down %: 10 / 6
 
Turnover Margin: 6 (+4) / 4 (+5)
 
Red Zone Offense: 10 /  12 (68%)
Red Zone Defense: 8 / 12 (93.8%)
 
Series History

SC leads series 14-4, Spurrier 14-2 vs Vanderbilt, but Vanderbilt has won the last 2 years pulling upsets as 13.5 and 9.5 underdogs.  Other than 2007-2008, Vandy also beat Carolina in back to back years 1998 and 1999.  Since S Carolina joined the SEC Vanderbilt has been an underdog 14 out of 17 games, in that span of 7 games that SC has been favored at home the average line has been 13.  Average score in Columbia is 13.8 VU - 30 SC, last 17 home and away 13.6 VU - 26.5 SC.  When Carolina has scored 20 points in the series they are 13-0, scoring less than 20 1-4.
 
Coach Bobby Johnson grew up and went to high school in Columbia, SC.  Several Vanderbilt coaches are from South Carolina.
 
About South Carolina

Alot was made last week when Spurrier said that there was more pressure to win the Kentucky and Vanderbilt game rather than the Alabama game.  People were reading more into that rather than just taking it at face value, but when South Carolina and Steve Spurrier lose two in a row to Vanderbilt, there certainly is pressure to not lose 3 straight.  
 
Supposedly Gamecock players say they've taken Vandy too lightly in the past.  In 2007 Vandy beat #6 SC at home 17-6.  Surely SC wouldn't take them lightly next year and want revenge?  Vandy won in 2008 too.  Reportedly players are taking the game even more seriously this time warning younger players, practices are supposed to be harder this week.  You wouldn't guess Vanderbilt is struggling and 2-5 listening to some of the things coming out of Columbia.
 
S Carolina is an improved team over last year.  They are doing better in the turnover department (-11 this time last year, currently +4).  The turnovers gained are the same, they've improved in the loss department.
 
And they are better at QB this season as well although QB Steven Garcia did not play vs the Commodores last year.  He earned a few starts last season and appears improved this year with 57.6% completions and 9-4 TD-INT ratio.  Coach Johnson sees the improvement in his pocket awareness and his grasp of the offense.
 
There hasn't been one RB or one WR to really emerge as a go-to-guy, 4 different players have led the team in rushing and three different receivers have 100y games this year.  The #1 receiver Moe Brown will miss this game after suffering a concussion vs Bama, but Alshon Jeffery and Tori Gurley have each had some good games and have great talent.  TE Saunders is a great target as well.
 
Despite being sacked 5 times last week, Spurrier felt their OL did a pretty good job vs Bama in pass protection.  SC has been sacked 20 times in 7 games, 12th in the SEC.  In the last two years Vanderbilt has been able to get after SC QBs including 4 sacks last year 7 in 2007.  Vandy might be able to exceed their 2 sack per game average this week.  A good majority of Vandy's sacks come from the DL led by Kadri Theron with 3, Billinger 2.5, Stewart and Greenstone each having 2.  Kadri is out this week, but the DL should get a boost this week as Steve Stone has been practicing at full speed and looks to make his first appearance of the season (Stone has started 27 career games and 9.5 sacks).
 
S Carolina has been plagued by poor OL play the last few years and they continue to try and find the best starting combination on the OL, shuffling guys around 9 players have earned starts this season as they search for the right combo.
 
SC is usually solid on defense and most of the numbers back up a strong looking unit again this season, although Alabama did rush for 264 and 2 weeks ago UK ran for 205.  Pass defense is good, their last 3 SEC opponents have completed 50% or less with limited yardage.  
 
Defense is led by probable All American LB Eric Norwood the team's leading tackler, 6 sacks (#1 SEC), 2 INTs, 6 QB hurries and 2 blocked kicks.  DE Cliff Mathews has earned some praise from Coach Johnson, he is tied for 3rd in SEC in tfl.  Jr FS Chris Culliver is off a career best 11 tkls vs Bama.  In addition to his importance in the secondary, Culliver is also a very good kick returner ranking 7th SEC just behind VU's Warren Norman with 25.8 yard per return.
 
K Spencer Lanning leads the SEC with 85.7 FG %. Lanning also punts and is tied with Upson at 42.3 avg, good enough for 3rd SEC.
 
Vanderbilt has been hit with alot of penalties this season, but S Carolina has had quite a few as well.  VU has been called for 50 penalties and 54.3 yard per game, SC 47, 62.6 yards.
 
About Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt OL hasn't performed well this year and now LT Thomas Welch (ankle) is doubtful this week.  Welch is considered the best OL with an NFL future, he was moved from RT to LT this off-season. rFr Ryan Seymour would start if Welch is unable to go.  Seymour switched from DL to OL this offseason.  If Welch is out then the unit would be without it's #1 RT and #1 LT from fall camp.
 
Justin Green is back at TE with the loss of Monahan for the season.  Monahan was the team's 4th leading receiver.  Much was expected of Green's impact in the passing game, but he was a nonfactor for whatever reason at WR.  He will have a larger role at TE along with Ryan Van Rensburg who's role will increase.  TE Brandon Barden is 3rd in receptions and might see more balls come his way now (#1 receiver vs Georgia).
 
RB Warren Norman continues to be the best option at RB (450y, 5.7 ypc), although Jared Hawkins (115y 5.5 ypc) could return this week after missing the Georgia game.  Zac Stacy is expected to miss with his ankle injury.  
 
There might be some encouragement thinking Vanderbilt can run some on SC.  Their rush defense appears shaky.  A one dimensional Alabama and RB Mark Ingram tore up the SC defense as their passing game struggled some.  Ingram also ran out of the "wildcat" with great success and we know that Vandy uses the Stallion formation with Norman.  However with a weaker OL depending on if Welch plays and with the way they've been playing well it is hard to say just how well Vandy might run the ball.
 
It is hard to like the match-up of VU's passing game vs the SC defense.  It is hard to like Vanderbilt's passing offense vs any defense really.  For the season Smith is completing just 46% with a 3-8 TD-INT ratio and 138 ypg.  Mac played that last drive vs Georgia, but Johnson has indicated that Smith is still the starter.  Unless Vanderbilt can establish a strong running attack, I'm actually a little fearful of how Smith might fare in this one.  This will be Graham's second week playing WR, maybe something will click there, but I'm most concerned about the guy throwing the ball regardless of who is at receiver.
 
On defense really have to be optimistic and encouraged about the Vanderbilt front 7 vs SC OL.  I think VU DL will really get after Garcia good and don't think they'll be able to do too much damage running.  Tall and athletic SC WRs could be tough match-up for good Vandy secondary.  They are young so that could play into Vandy's favor.  Especially if Garcia is under duress, he's shown to be careless with the ball at times.
 
I feel much better about our defensive matchup this week and actually think they could fare ok if they aren't worn down mentally and I haven't read or heard anything to indicate that they are.  I still think Georgia was the best offense this team has faced to date this year.
 
As always it comes down to the offense and Smith.  Maybe there are some things to be optimistic about from the Georgia game, drives got a couple first downs here and there, less three-and-outs.  The SC defense is atleast as good and probably better than the Georgia D.  I mean I really can't expect a good performance since they haven't had a good performance vs anybody except Rice and W Carolina.
 
Last week was the first time this year I actually bet against Vanderbilt.  I considered doing it again this week, but I just don't like the match-up as well plus SC is just too unpredictable.  I don't want to back Vandy in this one either, harder game to predict.  It all boils down to if Vandy can run and if the defense can force Garcia mistakes - the keys to the game.  

October 20, 2009

Week #7 Georgia - Vanderbilt Recap
By: Scott Kennedy

By now you don't even need to watch the game, read my blog or even check the score.  It is just a given that Vanderbilt will lose and their offense won't be very good.  Not much different vs Georgia.  The offense was actually a little better at times, but still not good enough or not nearly consistent enough.

Georgia's defense pretty much dominated the line of scrimmage getting pressure, sacks, knockdowns, batted balls.  Georgia registered 3 sacks, 9 tackles for loss, were credited with 3 hurries and two DL players had pass break-ups.  Lauer commented that Georgia wasn't as fast as LSU or Ole Miss, but their size was more of an issue and it sounds like they did some things Vandy wasn't ready for.

The OL had already been hit by injuries and inconsistency, but lost another player during the Georgia game in Sr LT Thomas Welch, their best OL player.  Further complicating things, TE Monahan left the game with a knee injury and it was later determined he is lost for the year.

Despite the injuries, Johnson was still very critical of the poor OL play as a big contributor to the offensive problems in the passing game.  Smith ultimately completed just 42% for 121y a TD and INT.

In the 1st qrt VU did have a decent drive keyed by a 21y Smith run on 3rd and 4 and also a fake punt run for 7 yards on 4th and 5.  Unfortunately the drive ended after reaching the UGA 36 on an INT. 

After a three-and-out VU got the ball back and was able to drive 40y in 7 plays for a 41y FG.

Only trailing 14-3, Vandy was able to drive to the Georgia 28, but a QB draw on 4th and 3 killed that drive at 9 plays 61y.

A rather controversial penalty closed the first half.  After Vandy's failed 4th down, Georgia drove to the the VU 39 and lined up to kick a 57y FG with :18 left.  It was blocked, but John Stokes was called for leaping (taking more than one step, jumping and falling on a player).  Johnson was furious and Stokes denied landing on a player, but to me it looked like a proper call as Stokes did take more than one step and did appear to land on snapper #69.  The penalty moved the ball up 15 yards and UGA made the score 17-3 at the half.

Vanderbilt opened the 2nd half with the ball and really had a nice drive going 80y in 11 plays with a big 21y Smith run and 25y strike to Ashley.  A good mix of run and pass drive included two 3rd down conversions one a 5y TD pass to Barden.  17-10 Georgia.

It was all downhill from there.  Vanderbilt's next 3 drives all went three-and-out while Georgia in the meantime scored on 3 of their first 4 2nd half drives to extend the score 34-10.

Big news late in the 4th qrt Mackenzie Adams came in at QB.  Adams moved the ball well going 6 of 8 passing for 53y.  He completed his first 5 passes!  The drive reached the Georgia 18 before being pushed back by penalty.  Eventually on 4th down Adams' pass was incomplete with 1:15 left.  Not sure what to take away from this drive, Georgia was probably playing different defense but generally I'd say his play was encouraging and I would like to see him have more opportunities to show what he can do.

Also noteworthy today was the first appearance of the year from Jamie Graham playing WR.  Graham was an important contributor on offense last season, but he did not have an impact today.  He was targeted a few times, but only caught one pass for 16y (on the final drive of the game).  Johnson wanted to get him in to stretch the field as he didn't sense Georgia would respect Vandy's playmaking ability at WR (not exactly his words).  I like the move, alot of fans have been wanting to see Jamie on offense, I just wish it would have happened earlier in the season.  But some injuries on defense, including one to Jamie himself, really prevented it until now.

Special teams was another area that benefited Georgia.  Their special teams play has been a strength this year and that didn't change vs Vandy.  Their punting, punt returns, kick returns all helped them gain an edge in field position creating short fields for themselves and long fields for Vandy.

Watching the game you felt that Vanderbilt's defense played good at times, but not nearly good enough obviously.  I said coming in I thought it was the best passing offense they'd faced all year.  Georgia has a good offense and really performed well vs the tough Vandy D.  The numbers ended up being very similar to Ole Miss.  Total yards allowed about 400, 220-240 in the passing game.  Georgia was successful with both their run and pass and their 34 points was only the 2nd time dating back to 2007 (20 games) that an opponent had more than 24 against Vandy D (08 Florida was the other).

Like I said to start the blog, the Vanderbilt offense did move the ball better, the drives just weren't sustained long enough or didn't lead to points.  Two 1st half drives into good Georgia territory ended with no points (downs, INT) and a 3rd only netted a FG.  When you factor Adams' passing numbers with Smith's it was actually their best offensive showing vs any SEC opponent this season.  296 total yards and 50% completions isn't anything to get excited about, but it is progress.

With this loss Vanderbilt falls to 2-5.  Barden called last week's game a "must-win...we need it for our morale...".  Coach Johnson is going to appeal to the player's pride this week.  It would appear pride is all this team has to play for now.

South Carolina preview blog coming soon.

October 14, 2009

Army Recap/Georgia Preview
By: Scott Kennedy

Brief notes from the Army game:

Rock Bottom.  No matter what happens the rest of the season it can not go any lower than this.  No disrespect to Army, they are an improving team, but no SEC team should ever lose to Army.  Actually, Army's kicker Alex Carlton said the same "This is an SEC team that comes in here, we're definitely not supposed to win this game."  The win marked the first time Army had beat a BCS conference team at home since 1997 (Rutgers).  An SEC school losing to Army is worse than losing to a IAA team really. There are plenty of good IAA teams out there that would beat Army.  Like people think Richmond beating Duke is a black eye for the ACC. It's not.  Richmond is a IAA power, defending champs and currently ranked #1.  Vanderbilt losing to Army is much worse.
 
Guess how it happened?  Lack of offense, penalties and mistakes.  The same things this team has struggled with all season again cost them, this time against Army a game they were favored by 10 to win.  

• Again Vanderbilt had significant time of  possession deficit, which may not be surprising considering the opponent, but  in all four losses this season VU has had atleast 11 minute TOP  deficit.
• Vanderbilt didn't enter Army's side of the 50 the  entire 1st half.
• With a 3rd qrt 1st and goal at the 5 and a 4th qrt  1st and goal at the 6, Vanderbilt produced just 2 FGs.
• Smith continues to struggle with 45.8% completions  vs Army.  
• Two weeks ago VU was called for 12 penalties  for 74 yards, high marks over the last few seasons.  Vs Army VU was again  called for 12 penalties this time for 99 yards.  Army had a 16-13 FD  edge, with 3 of their FDs coming by way of VU penalties.
• VU did not have one offensive TD, the lone TD was  a Warren Norman KO return.  Norman appeared on his way to an OT TD, but  the ball was stripped at the goal line, Army recovered in the end zone.   That fumble along with 2 INTs made for a 1-3 turnover deficit.
  

The penalties continue to just be killers.  Multiple false starts and holding calls creating long yardage situations on offense.  On defense there was a roughing the passer, pass interference and a offside call on 4th and 1 giving Army a free first down.  Those first two D penalties might have been questionable, but offsides on 4th and 1 is inexcusible  The final call of the game was offensive pass interference wiping out a late 4th qrt go-ahead TD (a play I personally think the refs got right, Johnson disagrees).  Through six games VU is just 10 penalties shy of the 2008 total.  In the past 6 seasons Vanderbilt was always among the top ten nationally for fewest, currently they rank 61st.
 
Outside some of the penalties the defense again played pretty well, although Marve admitted it wasn't good enough.  Army got inside the Vandy 10 three times, but only got 10 points.  A third drive got to the 20, but Vandy stopped a 4th and 1 attempt.  Army had just two drives over 35 yards, a 64 yarder ending in fumble and an 80y TD drive and went three-and-out four times (VU only 3).  Although Every Army ball carrier averaged over 3.4 ypc.
 
 
 

Week 7 Georgia (3-3, 2-2 SEC) at Vanderbilt (2-4, 0-3 SEC), 12:2 EST

Homecoming
 
TV: ESPN Gameplan, SEC Network
Radio: 104.5 Nashville, XM 199, Sirius 215
Line (open/changes/current as of Wednesday afternoon): +8 /  7.5 / 8 / 7.5
Total: 44.5
Money Line: Vandy +264 / Georgia -300
 
SEC Statistical Rankings after 6 weeks:
Georgia / Vanderbilt
Scoring Offense: 9 / 12 (108th nationally)
Rushing Offense: 12 / 5
Passing Offense: 3 / 12 (114th nationally)
Total Offense: 11 / 9
3rd Down %:T-7 (38%) / 11 (35%)
 
Scoring Defense: 12 / 5
Rushing Defense: 4 / 11
Pass Eff Defense: 11 / 4
Total Defense: 11 / 5
3rd Down %: 6 (34.5%) / 4 (31%)
 
Turnover Margin: 12 (-11) / 4 (+5)
 
Series History:

70th meeting, Georgia leads 49-18-2 and is 9-1 in the last 10, 21-3-1 last 25.  
 
This is the first time since 1996 that Georgia has not entered this game ranked in the top 25.  The average line at Vanderbilt has been UGA - 11.25 with a couple 7 and 7.5s in there and the lowest line of the series in recent years was UGA -3 in 1993.  Last time Vanderbilt beat Georgia at home was 1991 27-25 as 15 point dogs.  Vanderbilt has covered the last 3 in the series with an average score of 18.3 to 22 and an outright upset in 2006 (+14.5) and a near upset in 2007 (+7).  Richt has a terrific record in opponents home stadiums, 31-6, but is just 1-2 this season.
 
About Georgia:

The frustration and disappointment levels are high are reaching fever pitch for Georgia after Jonathan Crompton looked like an All American last week in a 19-45 UGA loss.  Not only was the defense torched by one of the worst SEC QBs, but the Georgia offense was MIA with all 19 of their points coming off special team and defensive scores.  Their 51y FG drive was the longest of the day and UGA lost 3 turnovers helping to pad their #118th ranking in TO margin.
 
Losing to Vanderbilt will push everyone over the edge.  Losing to teams like LSU and Tennessee are one thing, but losing to a team like Vanderbilt is a whole different deal.  Looking back on the 2006 season S Bryan Evans said "we lost to Vanderbilt and Kentucky, I don't think it can get too much worse than that".
 
D
Criticism of the defense and coordinator Willie Martinez is nothing new for Bulldog nation.  Last season Georgia finished in the bottom third of SEC teams in scoring defense and sacks and was average in other key statistical categories.  This year good defensive performances vs Ok St and Ar St have been overshadowed by very poor showings vs SC, Ark, LSU and now Tenn.  This season 3 QBs have had career passing days vs Georgia's D.
 
Georgia has had a hard time getting to the QB, but after missing the fist two games DE Justin Houston has 3 sacks in the last 4 outings.  Houston also leads the team with tkls for loss (6) again in just 4 games.  As Houston returned to the lineup, starting DE Rod Battle was lost for the year with an ACL injury. Still this DL is stout with 3 seniors in the DT rotation (Owens, Atkins, Weston).  LB Rennie Curran leads the team in tkls (63) and S Reshad Jones is 2nd (35) and leads the team in pbu (4).
 
There have been many coverage breakdowns, but that doesn't mean there isn't talent in the secondary.  It's led by the aforementioned Jones and Soph Brandon Boykin is emerging as a special teams star, but also as a quality starting CB with very good defensive games vs LSU and Arz St.  Boykin is 5th in tackles, tied for first in INTs (2) and second in pbu (3).
 
O
On offense, Georgia struggles to run the ball and Joe Cox has been inconsistent.  He can be great, but also give the game away.  There are plenty of good receiving targets, with AJ Green, Micheal Moore and good TEs.  The OL was supposed to be a strength, but for the 2nd straight year one time Fr All American Trinton Sturdivant has been lost for the year with an ACL tear in week 1.  The OL and running game has struggled averaging under 100 yards a game.  In trying to replace Moreno, 4 RBs have seen time all with mixed results, 5 different players have led the team in rushing.
 
ST
Clearly a highlight and strength of the team.  P Drew Butler leads the NCAA with a 49.8 avg.  K Blair Walsh has hit 9 of 10 FGs including three from 50+.  Georgia has blocked key FGs and extra points as well.  In the return game Brandon Boykin has returned two KOs for 100y TDs in just the first 6 games (first player in SEC history to return 2 kicks that distance for TDs in one season).
 
 
About Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt's defense is allowing just 15.67 pts per game, which ranks 18th nationally.  That puts them on pace for their best statiscal average since 1968.  LB Chris Marve says they feel underappreciated as a unit and it makes them play with a chip on their shoulder.  About being on the field longer with the offensive struggles Marve said "we like to get on the field whenever we get the chance...our mentality...is we need to stop them...it doesn't matter how long we're out there."
 
I heard there is some hope that maybe the offense is finding some rhythm based on the 4th quarter of the Army game.  Cole said he feels him and Larry are more on the same page and clicking a bit now.  Actually those hopes are hinging on the final drive of the 4th quarter where Smith was decent and the team got 4 first downs and a TD pass that was overturned on an interference call.  The prior two drives in the 4th qrt ended with an INT and a three-and-out.
 
Vanderbilt does have 19 players from Georgia on the team, which is the second largest state representation on the team after Tennessee (21).  Notable players from Georgia include starters and key contributors:  DT Greg Billinger, DT TJ Greenstone, TE Brandon Bardon, CB Casey Hayward, RB Warren Norman, DE Broderick Stewart, WR Udom Umoh, WR Alex Washington, P Brett Upson, OL Ryan Seymour.  9 of Vanderbilt's 2010 commitments are from Georgia and there will be several of recruits on hand for this game.
 
The game will be a "blackout", fans are asked to wear black to the game.  Less than 1000 tickets remained as of Wednesday, no doubt Bulldog fans wearing red and will be there in force.
 
Injury update

DE Steve Stone, returned to practice, but is still out.  The healing process has taken longer than originally thought.  He could return to action next week.
LB Tristan Strong, out for year with ACL injury.  Strong had 3 tkls in 6 games on special teams.
RB Jermaine Doster, suspended indefinitely for disorderly conduct and resisting arrest.
RB Jared Hawkins, questionable after missing Army game with foot soreness
RB Zac Stacy, probable this week, played last week ankle still not 100%
WR John Cole, probable this week, played last week with a cast like wrap on hand and led team in receptions vs Army.
 
My thoughts

Each week it seems like Coach Johnson keeps saying maybe they're asking the players to do too much.  Last week the team had a back to basics practice, how did that work out (7 offensive penalties for false start, holding and substitution infractions to name a few).  I think the coaches are at a loss on what to do and the players (offense) are just not playing up to their potential.  People have said that the team looks night and day difference between how the practice compared to how they play on the field.  There has also been talk that there are good plays run in practice that never get tried during the games.  Maybe the coaches don't have the confidence to run them, or they just are afraid to be anything other than conservative in games.
 
The defense has been consistently strong, but I've seen no improvement in the offense through 6 games.  Finding something positive in the Army game, the final drive of the 4th qrt, is like finding a penny on the ground when you're broke.  I mean that drive included a sack, a drop that hit Umoh right in the hands, Smith did throw a laser to Washington on a big completion, but he stared him down the whole way.  Forgive me if I call the big 31y completion to Barden as luck (throw off back foot, defender's back turned to ball).  Then I think the pass interference call that took away the TD was legit.  Coach Johnson disagrees with the call and thinks it cost the team the game, but to me it clearly looked like Umoh outstreched his arms to make contact with the defender on Washington to get Alex open.  It was nice to see the team move the ball like that, but it hardly seemed like a turn the corner type drive.  
 
Johnson continues to stand by Smith, against the wishes of many fans, Mackenzie Adams will not see the field this year unless it comes as a result to injury.  I don't know if Mac would do any better, there are still OL problems, and receiver drops, but Smith is clearly part of the problem, I don't think Mac could be any worse.  If we are supposed to believe what we were told all summer that the two were very close throughout camp I doubt there would be a drop off by benching Smith.  Mac is a senior and has QB'd some nice wins for Vandy in the past.  But Johnson is committed to Smith, I guess the future is now even if the team does go 2-10 this year.
 
The way Georgia has been playing, I could see a scenario that Vanderbilt actually wins this game, but I can no way predict it and wouldn't be interested in taking the 7.5 points either.  I think Georgia's offense, even streaky as it is, is probably the best passing game that VU has faced all year.  VU has a great secondary, but I expect Georgia to be able to do some things on offense unless they decide to play ultra-conservative.  Georgia's D has had it's problems, but this is a huge step down for them, even from Crompton and Tennessee.  This is the weakest offense they've faced all year and I would be surprised if Vanderbilt was any more productive then they were in any of the last 3 games.
   

October 6, 2009

Week #5 Ole Miss at Vanderbilt recap
By: Scott Kennedy

Crushed.  That is how I felt watching the game.  I tried to remain optimistic even down 17-0 at the half, but it was ultimately impossible for even the biggest Vanderbilt supporter to not feel anything other than embarrassment following the 23-7 defeat.
 
I guess it shouldn't have come as a surprise.  Everyone knew the offense was having issues, but I for one was hoping for better execution, hoping to see opportunities capitalized upon, hoping a light would suddenly turn on for Smith...that hope was crushed in perhaps Vanderbilt's most important game of the year Saturday night.
 
Game recap

Opening from their own 42, the Rebels proceeded to march down field accumulating 3 first downs, two 3rd down conversions and ending in what should have been a TD, but instead a FG.  With 3rd and 2 at the Vandy 3, Snead rolled out and had 2 receivers covered by just one defender, but Snead misfired (or the TE blew the catch, take your pick) and Miss settled for a 20y FG.
 
3-0 Ole Miss

Vanderbilt's first possession, three-and-out.  After a 1st down run, Smith scrambled out on 2nd and 6 and missed an open Alex Washington that would have been a 1st down.  3rd down Smith threw to Umoh short of the line to gain, but Umoh couldn't hang on when hit.  Punt.
 
Ole Miss also goes three-and-out, with Vandy D stepping up to stop runs on 2nd and 3rd and 1.  Punt.

Vanderbilt's second possession started at their own 4 following a nice Rebel punt.  First play out of the Stallion, Norman isn't able to handle a high snap, but does a great job to pick up the loose ball and run out of the EZ for a short gain on a play that had safety written all over it.  Following a 2nd down QB run, Smith and Washington can't hook-up on 3rd and 4.  Three-and-out. Punt.
 
Following a sack and a fumble by Stewart, Ole Miss hit a huge play on 3rd and 11, a Snead to Hodge 23y pass.  Jamie Graham remained in his backpedal beyond the marker and Hodge hooked back and made a nice run after catch.  Later Snead floated one over Hodge's head then on 3rd down with Snead barely getting the ball off, Jamie Graham makes an outstanding diving INT in front of the OM receiver.
 
At their own 21, Smith's first down throw to Barden was close to being a pick 6.  Vandy did pick up a first 1st down on a Smith run.  Smith then overthrew Umoh streaking down the sideline for what could have been a TD.  3rd and 8 Smith and Herndon can't connect.  Punt.

Ole Miss' 4th possession that concluded the 1st qrt and began the 2nd was one of their best and included conversions on 3rd and 1, 3rd and 16, 4th and 1, 3rd and 1 and 3rd and goal.  The highlight play was a 48y completion to Hodge who got behind Hayward down the sideline.  On 3rd and 1, after a sideline substitution, Vanderbilt is called for 12 men on the field giving OM an automatic 1st down. Later Hodge made a great catch with very tight coverage supplied by Hayward on 3rd and goal for a 2y TD.  All told it was a 15 play 80y drive.
 
10-0

2nd Qrt

Vanderbilt did get some things working on the ground highlighted by an 11y Smith run on 3rd down and back-to-back Hawkins and Norman runs for combined 20y. Norman's run was a great option pitch by Smith with Smith getting drilled in the process.  Aided by a OM personal foul penalty, Vanderbilt found themselves at the OM 15, but that is as close as they got.  No gain on 1st, false start and Smith rush for 4y loss, on 3rd and long a sack backing them up to the 29.  The icing on the cake, Fowler misses a 47y FG att from the middle of the field.  10 play 40y drive.
 
Ole Miss went right to work.  Again taking advantage of very soft corner cushion, Snead hit McCluster who made a good run after catch for 24y.  Later in the drive McCluster has a TD bounce off his chest and Vandy again forces a 4th down, but Snead sneaks it for a 1st.  Next play a 12y TD catch and run by a wide open RB Bolden in the middle of the field.  8 play 3 minute 71y drive.
 
17-0
 
With under 3 minutes left in the half Vanderbilt's drive begins in Ole Miss territory thanks to a terrific KO ret by Norman.  Hawkins runs for 21, VU works down to the 24.  Smith converts a 3rd down on a QB scramble for a 1st and 10 at the 13.  Smith rolls out and throws into coverage, 2nd down false start then sack.  3rd and 17 Smith stands in the pocket taking a hit and just overthrows an out stretched Barden at the goal line.  The play wouldn't have counted anyway due to an illegal formation.  Fowler then misses his 2nd consecutive FG, a 37y, middle of the field attempt.
 
17-0 halftime

1st half stats:  Smith did not complete one pass in the half going 0-9.
All edged OM:  Total plays 43-29, 239-89 total yards, 12-5 FD, 20-10 minute time of possession, 54%-38% 3rd down conversions.
 
3rd qrt

Vandy opens the half with a 2nd down pass completion - hey!  But Smith is sacked on 3rd down and the drive goes three-and-out.  Punt.

OM picks up where they left off with a 7 play 63y TD drive that included big yardage chunks by McCluster and Eason on passes and Bolden 15y run.  Snead and Hodge nearly connect for TD on 2nd and goal, but do hook up on 3rd and goal in front of Lewis for 7y TD.  (X-pt blocked by Stokes).
 
23-0

Vanderbilt's next drive was another three-and-out that included a false start and Smith can't handle a snap resulting in a sack.  Punt.

At this point Vanderbilt's defense steps up with INTs on Ole Miss' next two possessions by Hayward and Lewis, both were poor throws by Snead with Vandy CBs being in perfect position to make the picks.
 
Following the first INT Vandy is set up at OM 34.  Facing a 4th and 1 VU calls a reverse to Umoh gaining 11 yards, but could have been a TD if some better down field blocking had stopped the Rebel pursuit.  C Vierling is called for his 2nd illegal procedure of the game, the play was blown dead, good thing because the snap sailed over Smith's head.  Vierling was taken out of the game, although he later returned.  After a couple short completions Smith hits Umoh in the EZ for TD on 3rd and 3.  Great catch by Umoh.
 
23-7

The 2nd INT and return starts Vandy's drive at the 42.  They promptly get a false start penalty, but are able to pick up a 1st down and work down to the 29.  Two incompletions lead to a 4th and 8.  Pass rush forces Smith out of the pocket and he's able to find Hawkins who runs for the first, but holding penalty negates the play.  Had holding not taken place Smith probably would have got sacked.  Punt

4th qrt

Vanderbilt D continued their good second half play forcing a three-and-out including a near INT by Graham.  Punt

Another false start penalty is followed by 4 straight Warren Norman runs, the 4th is an option pitch 48 yarder down to the 6.  Shame he didn't score, but two Rebels had the angle on him.  After throwing a near pick on 2nd down, Smith forces the ball over the middle where it is tipped and the INT is returned out to the 35.
 
Vandy D answers the bell again registering 2 tkls for loss on the three-and-out possession.  Punt.

Washington gains good yardage on his field reversing punt return to midfield.  Vanderbilt's final drive of the night starts pretty well with Smith completing 5 of 6 passes on their way down to the 11.  One of those incompletions could have been a TD to Collin Ashley, but the pass was off the mark.  Unfortunately the drive ended on three straight incompletions, the final 2 had a better chance to be caught by Ole Miss defenders rather than receivers. Turnover on downs.

Ole Miss burns the final 5 minutes off the clock all on the ground picking up three 1st downs in the process.
 
23-7 Final

2nd half stats: Total plays VU 36 - OM 34, Total yards OM 148 - VU 131, First downs 8 each, T.O.P. OM 15:50 - VU 14:10, 3rd down conversion OM 57%, VU 22%
 
Game stats
All edges Ole Miss:  Total plays 77-65, Total yards 397-240, Pass yards 237-69, First downs 20-13, T.O.P 35:49-24:11, 3rd down conversions 55% - 29%, sacks 4-1
 
VU did hold a 171 to 160 rush yard advantage and a +2 turnover margin.
 
Passing:
Smith 10-27-69-1 INT, 37% comp, sacked 4x
 
Rushing:
Norman 14-86 (6 ypc), Hawkins 10-54 (5.4), Smith 13-27 (2 ypc)
 
Receiving:
Udom 3-27-TD, Wimberly 3-28, Norman 2-12
 
Kick returns:
Norman 28.6 avg (241 all purpose)
 
Defense:
Trice 14 tkl, 2 tfl, QB hurry, Marve 11 tkl, 1 tfl, Benoist 10 tkl, .5 tfl, Caldwell 10 tkl, Hayward, Lewis, Graham - 1 INT each, Stewart 1 sack
 
 
My thoughts
Both these teams came in here needing a win and both were struggling on offense.  What is apparent is that the Ole Miss offense played up to their potential for a good part of the game.  Ole Miss outplayed our defense in the first 2+ quarters, whether it was defensive scheme or their execution they certainly got the upper hand and they deserve credit for that.  I wouldn't say they played great, but certainly better than I saw vs Memphis and S Carolina.  Their 17 halftime points could have easily been 21, we're lucky they didn't get a TD on their opening possession.  I wish we could have played better on defense.  It is noteworthy that OM RT John Jerry was named SEC OL of the week.
 
The Vanderbilt offense, if it wasn't clear before, it is painfully apparent now that this offense has failed.  I don't know any other way to look at it.  Racking up yards and points outside of the SEC doesn't matter for much when you can't get it done in the most important games.  Vs 3 SEC defenses Vandy offense has scored 2 TDs.  Only 3 times on 7 attempts in the red zone this season resulted in any points.  Smith is the #1 target of criticism, much deserved in my opinion, but he isn't the only one of course.  Coaches keep deflecting alot of fault to receivers, execution, etc.  That is partly true, but Larry isn't seeing defenders and he misses open receivers on some bad looking passes.
 
It is so frustrating that while the scores are ugly, if you think the offense was atleast average Vandy could have won one or two of those games.  They just keep blowing opportunity after opportunity.  The offense does not look like it has improved through the first 5 games and it certainly isn't any better than last year.  Smith's decision making or throwing hasn't improved one bit.  Fans are getting impatient, change the QB, change the play calling, do this, do that...I don't know if the coaches have an idea on how to right this ship, I do know it hasn't happened yet.  When Coach Johnson says something like only 5 plays Saturday were Smith mistakes I wonder if he is in denial or has a hidden agenda (like trying to salvage Smith's confidence or justify his stead fast refusal to play Adams).
 
Then there are the mental errors tripping this team up again and again.  Vanderbilt was penalized 12 times, the most in one game since 2003.  The 74 penalty yards is 5 more than the team had passing yards.  Several of those penalties were false start, some of which might have been caused by Ole Miss defenders shouting things to simulate a snap.  That is a penalty and was called once, but Vandy has to be more disciplined then to allow things like that to effect them as Vierling admitted.
 
Looking at the upcoming schedule, assuming the team gets to 3-3 at Army this week, I don't know where 3 more wins come from.  Georgia has been solid although streaky, we have good recent history vs S Carolina, but the same was true with Ole Miss.  Georgia Tech looks increasingly tough, Florida is Florida.  Kentucky isn't bad and a struggling Tennessee will still be a big challenge.  Considering everything, at this point I don't know how this team makes it back to a bowl.  The Vegas win total of 4.5 from this summer is looking pretty accurate right now.  
 
 
Sunday / Monday news

Sunday the team practiced on basics, snap count, OL work, eliminating penalties.  It is amazing that a team has to spend time practicing that kind of stuff at this point in the season.  About the practice, Johnson said he thought they asked the "guys to think a little bit too much and forget about the basics".  He also said there were some things they saw in the Ole Miss defense that they wanted to take advantage of, but maybe they asked some players to do too much.  Take those statements as you will.  This is after all a pretty experienced OL and if you can't take advantage of things that present themselves in a game how good can you expect to be?
 
 
Monday Call-in show

The number 1 issue Coach faced was about the QB situation with Smith and when or if Mackenzie Adams is going to get a shot.  The first call of the night was a very tough and blunt caller about needing to make a change at QB.  Coach Johnson stands by Smith "we still think we're on the right track with Larry...for our program to move forward we think Larry is the right guy to do it".  Coach said Larry must play better, but spread the blame around to various places on the team as he often has.
 
Addressing the no-huddle and the offenses' ineffectiveness and how it might be hurting the defense putting them back on the field too quickly, Coach doesn't believe that the no-huddle changes that much of time used between plays it is just being lined up quicker and then calling the play at the line, the ball is often still snapped at about the same time on the play clock as normal.  The larger point is three-and-out is three-and-out whether it is no-huddle or conventional neither provides the defense much rest.
 
Asked about no names on jerseys and potential upside it might bring, Coach says he thinks it is "about a team game..it's hard to see those names any way so we just don't bother with them".
 
 
Injury updates from 10/5
DE Steven Stone (foot) starting to run, probably atleast another 2 weeks away.
WR John Cole (hand) may have a chance to play
S Sean Richardson (thumb) can play some more after seeing limited action vs Ole Miss
RB Zac Stacy (ankle) practiced a little bit Sunday and looked pretty good, although in a different report it he wasn't expected to play vs Army.
 
 
I will be unable to preview the Army game.  My next blog will be next week either recapping Army or previewing Georgia.
 
 
 
 

Week #5 Ole Miss at Vanderbilt recap

Crushed.  That is how I felt watching the game.  I tried to remain optimistic even down 17-0 at the half, but it was ultimately impossible for even the biggest Vanderbilt supporter to not feel anything other than embarrassment following the 23-7 defeat.
 
I guess it shouldn't have come as a surprise.  Everyone knew the offense was having issues, but I for one was hoping for better execution, hoping to see opportunities capitalized upon, hoping a light would suddenly turn on for Smith...that hope was crushed in perhaps Vanderbilt's most important game of the year Saturday night.
 
Game recap

Opening from their own 42, the Rebels proceeded to march down field accumulating 3 first downs, two 3rd down conversions and ending in what should have been a TD, but instead a FG.  With 3rd and 2 at the Vandy 3, Snead rolled out and had 2 receivers covered by just one defender, but Snead misfired (or the TE blew the catch, take your pick) and Miss settled for a 20y FG.
 
3-0 Ole Miss

Vanderbilt's first possession, three-and-out.  After a 1st down run, Smith scrambled out on 2nd and 6 and missed an open Alex Washington that would have been a 1st down.  3rd down Smith threw to Umoh short of the line to gain, but Umoh couldn't hang on when hit.  Punt.
 
Ole Miss also goes three-and-out, with Vandy D stepping up to stop runs on 2nd and 3rd and 1.  Punt.

Vanderbilt's second possession started at their own 4 following a nice Rebel punt.  First play out of the Stallion, Norman isn't able to handle a high snap, but does a great job to pick up the loose ball and run out of the EZ for a short gain on a play that had safety written all over it.  Following a 2nd down QB run, Smith and Washington can't hook-up on 3rd and 4.  Three-and-out. Punt.
 
Following a sack and a fumble by Stewart, Ole Miss hit a huge play on 3rd and 11, a Snead to Hodge 23y pass.  Jamie Graham remained in his backpedal beyond the marker and Hodge hooked back and made a nice run after catch.  Later Snead floated one over Hodge's head then on 3rd down with Snead barely getting the ball off, Jamie Graham makes an outstanding diving INT in front of the OM receiver.
 
At their own 21, Smith's first down throw to Barden was close to being a pick 6.  Vandy did pick up a first 1st down on a Smith run.  Smith then overthrew Umoh streaking down the sideline for what could have been a TD.  3rd and 8 Smith and Herndon can't connect.  Punt.

Ole Miss' 4th possession that concluded the 1st qrt and began the 2nd was one of their best and included conversions on 3rd and 1, 3rd and 16, 4th and 1, 3rd and 1 and 3rd and goal.  The highlight play was a 48y completion to Hodge who got behind Hayward down the sideline.  On 3rd and 1, after a sideline substitution, Vanderbilt is called for 12 men on the field giving OM an automatic 1st down. Later Hodge made a great catch with very tight coverage supplied by Hayward on 3rd and goal for a 2y TD.  All told it was a 15 play 80y drive.
 
10-0

2nd Qrt

Vanderbilt did get some things working on the ground highlighted by an 11y Smith run on 3rd down and back-to-back Hawkins and Norman runs for combined 20y. Norman's run was a great option pitch by Smith with Smith getting drilled in the process.  Aided by a OM personal foul penalty, Vanderbilt found themselves at the OM 15, but that is as close as they got.  No gain on 1st, false start and Smith rush for 4y loss, on 3rd and long a sack backing them up to the 29.  The icing on the cake, Fowler misses a 47y FG att from the middle of the field.  10 play 40y drive.
 
Ole Miss went right to work.  Again taking advantage of very soft corner cushion, Snead hit McCluster who made a good run after catch for 24y.  Later in the drive McCluster has a TD bounce off his chest and Vandy again forces a 4th down, but Snead sneaks it for a 1st.  Next play a 12y TD catch and run by a wide open RB Bolden in the middle of the field.  8 play 3 minute 71y drive.
 
17-0
 
With under 3 minutes left in the half Vanderbilt's drive begins in Ole Miss territory thanks to a terrific KO ret by Norman.  Hawkins runs for 21, VU works down to the 24.  Smith converts a 3rd down on a QB scramble for a 1st and 10 at the 13.  Smith rolls out and throws into coverage, 2nd down false start then sack.  3rd and 17 Smith stands in the pocket taking a hit and just overthrows an out stretched Barden at the goal line.  The play wouldn't have counted anyway due to an illegal formation.  Fowler then misses his 2nd consecutive FG, a 37y, middle of the field attempt.
 
17-0 halftime

1st half stats:  Smith did not complete one pass in the half going 0-9.
All edged OM:  Total plays 43-29, 239-89 total yards, 12-5 FD, 20-10 minute time of possession, 54%-38% 3rd down conversions.
 
3rd qrt

Vandy opens the half with a 2nd down pass completion - hey!  But Smith is sacked on 3rd down and the drive goes three-and-out.  Punt.

OM picks up where they left off with a 7 play 63y TD drive that included big yardage chunks by McCluster and Eason on passes and Bolden 15y run.  Snead and Hodge nearly connect for TD on 2nd and goal, but do hook up on 3rd and goal in front of Lewis for 7y TD.  (X-pt blocked by Stokes).
 
23-0

Vanderbilt's next drive was another three-and-out that included a false start and Smith can't handle a snap resulting in a sack.  Punt.

At this point Vanderbilt's defense steps up with INTs on Ole Miss' next two possessions by Hayward and Lewis, both were poor throws by Snead with Vandy CBs being in perfect position to make the picks.
 
Following the first INT Vandy is set up at OM 34.  Facing a 4th and 1 VU calls a reverse to Umoh gaining 11 yards, but could have been a TD if some better down field blocking had stopped the Rebel pursuit.  C Vierling is called for his 2nd illegal procedure of the game, the play was blown dead, good thing because the snap sailed over Smith's head.  Vierling was taken out of the game, although he later returned.  After a couple short completions Smith hits Umoh in the EZ for TD on 3rd and 3.  Great catch by Umoh.
 
23-7

The 2nd INT and return starts Vandy's drive at the 42.  They promptly get a false start penalty, but are able to pick up a 1st down and work down to the 29.  Two incompletions lead to a 4th and 8.  Pass rush forces Smith out of the pocket and he's able to find Hawkins who runs for the first, but holding penalty negates the play.  Had holding not taken place Smith probably would have got sacked.  Punt

4th qrt

Vanderbilt D continued their good second half play forcing a three-and-out including a near INT by Graham.  Punt

Another false start penalty is followed by 4 straight Warren Norman runs, the 4th is an option pitch 48 yarder down to the 6.  Shame he didn't score, but two Rebels had the angle on him.  After throwing a near pick on 2nd down, Smith forces the ball over the middle where it is tipped and the INT is returned out to the 35.
 
Vandy D answers the bell again registering 2 tkls for loss on the three-and-out possession.  Punt.

Washington gains good yardage on his field reversing punt return to midfield.  Vanderbilt's final drive of the night starts pretty well with Smith completing 5 of 6 passes on their way down to the 11.  One of those incompletions could have been a TD to Collin Ashley, but the pass was off the mark.  Unfortunately the drive ended on three straight incompletions, the final 2 had a better chance to be caught by Ole Miss defenders rather than receivers. Turnover on downs.

Ole Miss burns the final 5 minutes off the clock all on the ground picking up three 1st downs in the process.
 
23-7 Final

2nd half stats: Total plays VU 36 - OM 34, Total yards OM 148 - VU 131, First downs 8 each, T.O.P. OM 15:50 - VU 14:10, 3rd down conversion OM 57%, VU 22%
 
Game stats
All edges Ole Miss:  Total plays 77-65, Total yards 397-240, Pass yards 237-69, First downs 20-13, T.O.P 35:49-24:11, 3rd down conversions 55% - 29%, sacks 4-1
 
VU did hold a 171 to 160 rush yard advantage and a +2 turnover margin.
 
Passing:
Smith 10-27-69-1 INT, 37% comp, sacked 4x
 
Rushing:
Norman 14-86 (6 ypc), Hawkins 10-54 (5.4), Smith 13-27 (2 ypc)
 
Receiving:
Udom 3-27-TD, Wimberly 3-28, Norman 2-12
 
Kick returns:
Norman 28.6 avg (241 all purpose)
 
Defense:
Trice 14 tkl, 2 tfl, QB hurry, Marve 11 tkl, 1 tfl, Benoist 10 tkl, .5 tfl, Caldwell 10 tkl, Hayward, Lewis, Graham - 1 INT each, Stewart 1 sack
 
 
My thoughts
Both these teams came in here needing a win and both were struggling on offense.  What is apparent is that the Ole Miss offense played up to their potential for a good part of the game.  Ole Miss outplayed our defense in the first 2+ quarters, whether it was defensive scheme or their execution they certainly got the upper hand and they deserve credit for that.  I wouldn't say they played great, but certainly better than I saw vs Memphis and S Carolina.  Their 17 halftime points could have easily been 21, we're lucky they didn't get a TD on their opening possession.  I wish we could have played better on defense.  It is noteworthy that OM RT John Jerry was named SEC OL of the week.
 
The Vanderbilt offense, if it wasn't clear before, it is painfully apparent now that this offense has failed.  I don't know any other way to look at it.  Racking up yards and points outside of the SEC doesn't matter for much when you can't get it done in the most important games.  Vs 3 SEC defenses Vandy offense has scored 2 TDs.  Only 3 times on 7 attempts in the red zone this season resulted in any points.  Smith is the #1 target of criticism, much deserved in my opinion, but he isn't the only one of course.  Coaches keep deflecting alot of fault to receivers, execution, etc.  That is partly true, but Larry isn't seeing defenders and he misses open receivers on some bad looking passes.
 
It is so frustrating that while the scores are ugly, if you think the offense was atleast average Vandy could have won one or two of those games.  They just keep blowing opportunity after opportunity.  The offense does not look like it has improved through the first 5 games and it certainly isn't any better than last year.  Smith's decision making or throwing hasn't improved one bit.  Fans are getting impatient, change the QB, change the play calling, do this, do that...I don't know if the coaches have an idea on how to right this ship, I do know it hasn't happened yet.  When Coach Johnson says something like only 5 plays Saturday were Smith mistakes I wonder if he is in denial or has a hidden agenda (like trying to salvage Smith's confidence or justify his stead fast refusal to play Adams).
 
Then there are the mental errors tripping this team up again and again.  Vanderbilt was penalized 12 times, the most in one game since 2003.  The 74 penalty yards is 5 more than the team had passing yards.  Several of those penalties were false start, some of which might have been caused by Ole Miss defenders shouting things to simulate a snap.  That is a penalty and was called once, but Vandy has to be more disciplined then to allow things like that to effect them as Vierling admitted.
 
Looking at the upcoming schedule, assuming the team gets to 3-3 at Army this week, I don't know where 3 more wins come from.  Georgia has been solid although streaky, we have good recent history vs S Carolina, but the same was true with Ole Miss.  Georgia Tech looks increasingly tough, Florida is Florida.  Kentucky isn't bad and a struggling Tennessee will still be a big challenge.  Considering everything, at this point I don't know how this team makes it back to a bowl.  The Vegas win total of 4.5 from this summer is looking pretty accurate right now.  
 
 
Sunday / Monday news

Sunday the team practiced on basics, snap count, OL work, eliminating penalties.  It is amazing that a team has to spend time practicing that kind of stuff at this point in the season.  About the practice, Johnson said he thought they asked the "guys to think a little bit too much and forget about the basics".  He also said there were some things they saw in the Ole Miss defense that they wanted to take advantage of, but maybe they asked some players to do too much.  Take those statements as you will.  This is after all a pretty experienced OL and if you can't take advantage of things that present themselves in a game how good can you expect to be?
 
 
Monday Call-in show

The number 1 issue Coach faced was about the QB situation with Smith and when or if Mackenzie Adams is going to get a shot.  The first call of the night was a very tough and blunt caller about needing to make a change at QB.  Coach Johnson stands by Smith "we still think we're on the right track with Larry...for our program to move forward we think Larry is the right guy to do it".  Coach said Larry must play better, but spread the blame around to various places on the team as he often has.
 
Addressing the no-huddle and the offenses' ineffectiveness and how it might be hurting the defense putting them back on the field too quickly, Coach doesn't believe that the no-huddle changes that much of time used between plays it is just being lined up quicker and then calling the play at the line, the ball is often still snapped at about the same time on the play clock as normal.  The larger point is three-and-out is three-and-out whether it is no-huddle or conventional neither provides the defense much rest.
 
Asked about no names on jerseys and potential upside it might bring, Coach says he thinks it is "about a team game..it's hard to see those names any way so we just don't bother with them".
 
 
Injury updates from 10/5
DE Steven Stone (foot) starting to run, probably atleast another 2 weeks away.
WR John Cole (hand) may have a chance to play
S Sean Richardson (thumb) can play some more after seeing limited action vs Ole Miss
RB Zac Stacy (ankle) practiced a little bit Sunday and looked pretty good, although in a different report it he wasn't expected to play vs Army.
 
 
I will be unable to preview the Army game.  My next blog will be next week either recapping Army or previewing Georgia.
 
 
 
 

October 1, 2009

Week 5 #21 Ole Miss at Vanderbilt
By: Scott Kennedy

Week 5 - #21 Ole Miss (2-1) at Vanderbilt (2-2), 7:00 EST
TV: ESPNU
Radio: 104.5 Nashville, 93.7 Oxford, XM 199, Sirius 214
Line (open/changes/current as of Thursday morning): +9.5 / 10 / 9.5 / 9 / 8.5 / 9 / 9.5
Total: 42 / 43 / 44 / 43.5 / 44 / 45
Money Line: Vandy +300  / Ole Miss -360

SEC Statistical Rankings after week 4:
Ole Miss / Vanderbilt
Scoring Offense: 4 / 12
Rushing Offense: 7  / 5
Passing Offense:  8 / 11
Total Offense: 8 / 7
3rd Down %:  11 / 8
3rd Down conversions:  Ole Miss and Vandy are the two best in 3rd down defense.  Miss is #1 in the SEC stopping opponents 78.3% of the time.  Vandy isn't far behind stopping 77.8%.  Offense is another matter.  Vanderbilt has converted nearly 36%, which ranks 8th in the conference.  Ole Miss is 11th with just over 30% conversions.

Scoring Defense:  2 / 4
Rushing Defense:  4 / 11
Passing Eff Defense: 4 / 2
Total Defense: 6 / 5
Turnover Margin: T-4 / 3
Ole Miss - Vanderbilt History

Ole Miss is Vanderbilt's second most played opponent.  This game marks the 84th in the series that dates back to 1894. Ole Miss leads the series 46-35-2.  Vanderbilt won the first 19 games, 16 of which were shutouts.  Lately Vanderbilt has won 2 straight and 3 of the last 4.  VU has not beaten an opponent 3 straight times since UK 1991-95.  Seven of the nine games this decade have been decided by 8 points or less, the other two '07 17-31 Vandy, '01 38-27 Ole Miss.  This is the largest point spread in the series since 2003's season opener when Ole Miss was -13 in Nashville.  That game was 24-21, Vanderbilt went on to a 2-10 season, Ole Miss and Eli Manning went on to the Cotton Bowl and a 10-3 finish.  Even in 2002 with Ole Miss being a 21 pt favorite, the game was just a 7pt Rebel win 45-38.  In fact, over the last 10 years, Vanderbilt is 8-1-1 vs the spread in this series.  Vanderbilt also was competitive vs Nutt at Arkansas going 2-0 vs the spread and 1-1 straight up.

Last year's game was one of those "misleading finals" as Phil likes to call them where Ole Miss had nearly 400 yards of offense to Vandy's 200, but a +4 TO margin for Ole Miss including 3 INTs by Ryan Hamilton was enough for the victory.  And who can forget Chris Marve's goal line strip?

Johnson goes for his 30th victory as Vanderbilt's head coach this Saturday.  About the Ole Miss rivalry, Johnson acknowledges it is probably one of their best rivalries: "it's always pretty close, some controversial things have happened, some crazy things have happened...it's a good one to see...I hope everyone comes out and enjoys the game."  The game is approaching a sell out with around 1000 tickets left as of Wednesday.

About Ole Miss:
QB
Jevan Snead was hyped as a first team SEC QB, even a dark horse Heisman contender.  Some NFL draft analysts have even ranked Snead as the #1 QB for next year's draft.  One thing is for sure, Snead has not played up to that level so far in 2009.  Snead hasn't responded well to more of a pass rush this season, at times it had effected his play even when he was not rushed, Coach Nutt said sometimes he was seeing "ghost" out there.  Snead has also admitted to being rattled at times this year.  He is coming off one of the worst games of his career vs South Carolina, 7-21-107y-1 TD.  On the season his 49% completion percentage ranks 11th of SEC starting QBs.  Much was expected from Snead this season after he finished 2008 with a 16-3 TD-INT ratio.
RB
It became even more clear last week that Dexter McCluster is the only real weapon Ole Miss has at this point.  McCluster has primarily been used as a WR, but has always been a key player in the running game often from his "wild rebel" position of late.  Last week he provided the struggling offense a spark lining up at RB and averaged nearly 6 yards per carry.  For the season he is second on the team with 135 rushing yards.
Brandon Bolden, Cordera Eason and Enrique Davis would be the more traditional RBs, all have over 20 carries, Bolden leaders in yards (208 6.5ypc).
Ole Miss lost a 4 year starting FB, but expected Sr Andy Hartmann to step in.  He was injured earlier this year and Ole Miss had had to "manufacture FBs" without him in the lineup, even trying 300+ lb OL Mark Jean-Louis.  Nutt thinks trouble at the FB spot has hurt the offense this season.

WR/TE
McCluster and fellow Sr Shay Hodge each have 9 receptions to lead the team.  A host of other receivers have accounted for a few each, most notably Markeith Summers averages 26 ypc on just 3 catches with 2 for TD.  Snead's struggles can be blamed on a variety of things, one could be the absence of Mike Wallace who is now in the NFL.
Wallace was a down-the-field type receiver who led the team in yardage each of the last 3 years and was also important in kick returns the last 2 seasons.  For kick returns this season Miss is using RBs to fill that role who lack Wallace's breakaway speed.
Also contributing to some of Ole Miss' offensive woes is injuries and youth at the TE position.  TE Gerald Harris caught 4 TDs last season, 2 in the Cotton Bowl, but has missed the last 2 games after reaggravating a pulled hamstring in week 1.  He has been replaced with a couple rFr players, but Nutt seems eager for Harris to return, which could happen this week.

OL
Ole Miss has clearly struggled to replace 4 year starting LT Michael Oher who was a first round NFL draft pick.  Soph LT Bradley Sowell had a rough time with South Carolina's All-SEC LB/DE Norwood last week.  Ole Miss also lost a 3 year starter Maurice Miller and another part-time starter Harris.  Those 3 departed players combined for 99 career starts.
Despite some OL problems this season Nutt feels they have their best 5 on the field and will not make any changes to the lineup this week.  Phil had projected tr Fr Bobbie Massie at LT, but he is currently backing up at RT behind John Jerry, one of three returning starters to the OL.

Defense
The Ole Miss defense is again a very formidable unit.  Last year they were #2 in SEC, #4 nationally in run defense and led the nation in tackles for loss (8.62 per game).
The strength of the defense is the DL a very experienced group, losing just one starter from 08, All-American DT Peria Jerry.  Jerrell Powe has stepped in and after playing in 12 last season, was named the most improved player this spring.  He leads the team with 4 tkl for loss this year.
The oft injured DE Greg Hardy's ability is known throughout the SEC, but fellow DEs Marcus Tillman, Kentrell Lockett and Emmanuel Stephens are plenty capable themselves.  Those four have combined for 29 tkls (9 for loss), 4.5 sacks, and 9 QB hurries.
LB unit isn't considered a strength, but that depends who is playing.  The LBs are thin right with a couple injuries depending how DT Shackelford and Lamar Brumfield practice this week.  Coach Nutt has been very high on true Fr Shackelford and Joel Kight.  Shackelford's nickname is "wild man" and he is a key contributor to the Rebel D.
In the secondary safeties Johnny Brown, Kendrick Lewis and Fon Ingram lead the team in tkls with 26, 22 and 13 respectively.  Both CBs Marshay Green and Cassius Vaughn are returning senior starters (28 combined starts).  Green is also the SEC's #2 punt returner (11.2).

Kickers
Josh Shene was 08 1st Team SEC and is the SEC's active career leader in FGs and has hit 86 consecutive PATs, 2nd all time at Ole Miss.  In his career Shene has twice made FGs over 50 yards (51 and 52).  Andrew Ritter handles kickoffs (5 touchbacks), Ole Miss is second in the SEC in kick coverage (Vanderbilt #4).  Ole Miss punt coverage has a net 34.1, 8th in the SEC (Vandy 12th with 29y net).

Injuries

Ole Miss:
    * LBs DT Shackelford (ankle), Lamar Brumfield (foot) are now questionable after practicing mid week.  Earlier this week both players were expect to miss the Vanderbilt game.  If they are unable to go, Ole Miss will rotate just 4 LBs (Trahan, Cornell, Walker, Kight).
    * DE Greg Hardy (ankle) missed some practice time. Hardy has played with injury throughout his career.  He'll likely play this week hobbling on and off the field as he often does.
    * Coaches hope TE Gerald Harris (hamstring) can play this week.  His return could be a big boost to both the running and passing game.
    * FB Andy Hartmann (knee) is out this week.

Vanderbilt (update from last blog):
    * CB Jamie Graham (concussion) probable.  Graham practiced Wednesday and said "most definitely I'll play".
    * Fr S Jay Fullam practiced for the first time since injury this August.  Fullam has a large cast on his hand.  He was expected to play this year, but may still be a few weeks away if he ends up seeing the field this year.
   * RB Zac Stacy (ankle) doubtful.  The ankle injury has gotten worse.
    * RB Jared Hawkins (foot) questionable depending how the foot feels this week.
    * WR John Cole (hand) is doubtful.
    * S Richardson (hand) is doubtful, although he did return to practice with a cast.  Sounds like Johnson thinks it might be too soon to return, but didn't totally rule out him playing.

Some of Vanderbilt's statistics of note:
Tackles - Marve 24 (#2 SEC total tackles, 2 tfl, 1 sack, 3 forced fumbles - #T-2 NCAA forced fumbles per game), Benoist 22.5 (2 tfl, 1.5 sack, INT), Richardson 21 (3.5 tfl, 1 forced fumble), Hayward 20.5 (5 tfl, 3 pass break ups)

Sacks - Kadri 3, Greenstone 2
Pass break-ups - Lewis 4, Hayward 3
INTs - Lewis 2, Benoist, Foster, Samuels 1
Rushing - Norman 250y (6.9) 3 TDs, Stacy 236y (4.6) TD, Reeves 141y (6.1) 2 TDs, Smith 38y, 2 TDs
Passing - Smith 56-115-3 INT, 1 TD, 633y 48.7%
Receiving - Cole 12r 119y, Umoh 9r 139y, Monahan 8r 76y, Barden 7r 67y
Kick returns - Norman 25.1 avg, long 41
Team - has allowed 9 sacks, approx 5 minute time of possession deficit, penalized 22 times for 165 yards (41.2 per game), 9 fumbles (2 lost)

My thoughts:
You have to feel good about the Vanderbilt defense in this one.  Ole Miss might have plenty of potential to be scoring a bunch of point and gaining a bunch of yards, but they haven't been able to do that this year vs IA competition and it is really hard to see them all of a sudden start doing it vs the Vanderbilt defense.  As much as we believe and trust in this defense I just don't know how Snead and that offense can get rolling this week.

Comparing the defenses, the only unit that I think Ole Miss has a clear advantage is at safety, if Richardson was 100% and Hamilton was playing I would feel differently.  But Vandy's CBs are far superior and I'd take our LB unit over Ole Miss' every time.  DLs are close, I'd probably give Ole Miss a slight edge there, but I'm plenty comfortable with our DL in this game.

They have a very good kicker, but I feel more confident in Fowler after last week and Upson has been having pretty good punting games since week 1.

The question, as it always is, comes down to our offense.  Some were encouraged seeing South Carolina's inconsistent offense move the ball vs Ole Miss last Thursday, but honestly, I don't think Vandy's O is as good as what SC fields.  Ole Miss defense is pretty good, but Memphis was able to move the ball on them some and they have a pretty poor offense.  Vanderbilt certainly has a better offense than Memphis.  Their team ran for 150y (3.5), the top 2 RBs avg 5.3 ypc.  If Memphis had any kind of competent QB play they would have likely won that game.  South Carolina had mixed results running with their leading rusher gaining 52y (4 ypc) and only had 65 as a team.

Vandy was able to run the ball vs LSU with Stacy (4.4ypc) and Reeves (7ypc). Stacy won't likely play here, but fellow Fr Warren Norman is plenty good.  The running game was really bottled up vs Miss St as they stacked the box daring Vandy to throw with plenty of blitzes.  It will be interesting to see what Ole Miss' gameplan is and I expect Vanderbilt to have learned from earlier games and have a better gameplan and better results out of Smith.  History has shown that Vanderbilt can move the ball on the ground vs them, hopefully that continues Saturday making Smith's job a little easier.

Facing LSU and Miss St's defenses should really have Vandy prepared well for this game.  I am hopeful that Smith might be able to even have his best game of the season - not in the stats necessarily, but in his reads and decision making.  It's not like Ole Miss is any better on defense than what he has already seen.  With weeks of practice and games under their belt, the offense just has to start getting more consistent and effective (atleast I'm hoping that to be the case).

Winning at Rice was really huge last week.  It reinforced confidence and boosted morale.  So Vanderbilt is in a good position mentally, plus they know that they can beat Ole Miss as history shows.  There are concerns on offense, but I feel alot better at this point banking on experience, continuity, etc.

Ole Miss is in a much more precarious situation.  They were ranked #4 in the country before last week's loss.  Coach Nutt and some of the players admitted to not handling the expectations and the attention well.  Now they've fallen to 21 in the AP poll.  One week everyone is telling them how good they are and the next everyone is telling them how overrated they were.

As you may know, I predicted Vanderbilt to upset Ole Miss in my August 3rd blog.  Part of that did depend on Ole Miss coming off the Thursday night victory with media attention going on the upcoming Alabama game resulting in some player distractions vs a fully focused Vanderbilt team springing the upset over an overconfident Rebel team.  I knew somebody would expose Ole Miss, I hoped it would have been Vanderbilt.  The variables have changed now, the loss to SC ensures that Ole Miss fully focus on improving this week, righting their ship, the Alabama game hardly matters if they start 0-2 in SEC play.  Ole Miss comes into this game with alot to prove, kind of like Miss St did wanting to show they were better than the Auburn game.

Vanderbilt still matches up extremely well with Ole Miss, they just no longer have that intangible advantage of facing a Miss team that hadn't been exposed yet.  While Ole Miss has alot to prove here and may have a chip on their shoulder now, Vanderbilt will be sky high as well for this one as well.  Sure there are ways that Vanderbilt can lose this game, but the Miss offense has not been good this year and I don't expect it to start vs the Commodore defense this week.  This will likely be a low scoring game close to the Vegas total.  It's a game I think Vandy can keep close and if they play up to their potential, one they can certainly win and in the whole scheme of things, is a really really important game for Vanderbilt's season.

September 29, 2009

Week 4 - Vanderbilt at Rice, Recap
By: Scott Kennedy

I was unable to watch the game, but I let out a sigh of relief upon seeing the final score.  The 10-10 halftime tie had me concerned.  The 36-17 final is a better reflection of how this team should perform.
 
But it wasn't all smiles and rosy underneath that score.  Coach Johnson wasn't happy with what the offense did with their opportunities.  Wasting field position was a problem last week and there was improvement this week, but still not good enough.  Thanks to INTs, four drives began in Rice territory, which yielded two FGs a punt and the game's final TD.  For the third game in a row a false start in opponents territory, this time on 3rd down, contributed to a stalled drive.  Instead of facing 3rd and 1 at the 33, the penalty moved them back 5 yards resulting in an incomplete pass and a punt.  The 2nd and 3rd opportunities resulted in a 5 and 2 yard drives leading to short FGs.  All told Vanderbilt had three stalled trips inside the Rice 20 result in FGs of 37, 33 and 23 yards.  On a drive that started at their own 10 Vandy had 1st and 10 at the Rice 19, but a fumbled shotgun snap (again) resulting in an 18 yard loss followed by an incomplete pass then an INT before halftime and zero points.  
 
Despite some good numbers, the passing game is still a work in progress.  In making only his 5th start, Smith needs to improve in all areas and the pass blocking has been disappointing at times.  Rice got in on 3 sacks and 9 tkls for loss.
 
Also of concern, Vanderbilt was called for a season high 9 penalties for 74 yards (only 13 penalties in first 3 games).  Vandy went 3-and-out five times, still not good, but an improvement over last week's seven.  The Vanderbilt defense gave up a couple big plays that Myron Lewis attributed to some fatigue from the 88 degree temperature.  But the defense is leading this team, an occasional break down can be understood when they end up on the field too long.
 
But after last week's disappointing Mississippi State game, let's not dwell on the areas that still need improvement very long, there are some things to feel good about the victory.  

• Smith had statistical career highs in pass  attempts, completions and yards going 23-41-268y-INT (56%).  Seven  different receivers caught balls, led in receptions by John Cole (7) and yards  by Umoh Udom (95).
• Vanderbilt opened up the short passing game just a  bit to include a couple deeper throws (one deep 54y completion, another  overthrown).
• Warren Norman ran for 119 including a 58y  TD.  Jared Hawkins had 61 yards on 11 attempts, Reeves chipped in with  41.
• The defense continues to shine with 4 INTs  (Benoist, Foster, Lewis 2), 3 sacks (Billinger 1.5, Fugger .5 Kadri  2), 12 of Rice's 16 drives were less than 20  yards and 16% 3rd down conversions.
• K Ryan Fowler hit 3-for-3 FGs, 3 xpts and 2 touchbacks on 8 kickoffs (avg  67y).
• P Brett Upson averaged 43 yards with 3 of 8 being downed inside the 20 (2  touchback).
  

Injuries:

• Rice QB Nick Fanuzzi did not play.  Two other  Rice QBs went a combined 12-32-122y-1 TD-4 INTs.
• CB Jamie Graham did not play due to lingering  concussion symptoms.  Fr Eddie Foster took his place.
• S Sean Richardson was limited vs Rice with a leg  muscle injury.  In the game he tore a thumb ligament and has already had  surgery.  He is doubtful this week, but could play with a  cast.  LB/S Brent Trice started in Richardson's place vs Rice and  would again this week if necessary.
• Leading receiver, John Cole broke a bone in his  hand and had surgery as well.  Cole is doubtful this week.
• DE Steve Stone is not expected to return this  week.  He may return next week vs Army.
• DT TJ Greenestone is questionable (leg)
• RB Zac Stacy is questionable (ankle).  Stacy  a had 5 yards on 4 attempts in only the first half vs Rice.
• RB Jared Hawkins saw his first action of the year  and started vs Rice.  He is probable this week.
• Fr DB Eric Samuels appears ready to play more of a  role with his ankle injury behind him.  Samuels had an INT and fumble  recovery in week 1.
  

My thoughts:

Vanderbilt's offense is making some progress, but I don't think any VU fan expected them to falter vs Rice and truth-be-known, it wasn't very good in the first half and still needs sizable improvement to be effective vs quality teams.  We'll find out soon enough if after 4 weeks the offense is good enough to compete vs another SEC defense, it wasn't all bad vs LSU thanks largely to RBs Stacy and Reeves, but a disaster vs Mississippi St where nothing worked.
 
The defense will keep this team in almost every game.  With that kind of security blanket, if the offense can execute, take advantage of opportunities and just not make mistakes Vanderbilt will have a chance to compete.  Problem is right now they are having trouble with all three of those things.  It is the same old story - win with defense and special teams and don't beat yourself on offense, this is what the team must strive for because I don't think they are going to evolve into a very good offense vs SEC teams this year.  Stacy's ankle injury hurts because he was a special game changing RB.  Warren Norman has done well and will be counted on more obviously.  Some decent OL play vs LSU has gone backwards at times the last 2 weeks, maybe the season ending injury to Williams is having a bigger effect.  Vanderbilt's time of possession is last in the SEC, with no bye week and a banged up defense, Vanderbilt has to be more productive on offense.  It is a broken record to keep saying that, but it is the only glaring weakness on this team.  Hopefully it can all come together soon.
 
Ole Miss up next, a preview to come in a couple days.
 

Week 4 - Vanderbilt at Rice, Recap

I was unable to watch the game, but I let out a sigh of relief upon seeing the final score.  The 10-10 halftime tie had me concerned.  The 36-17 final is a better reflection of how this team should perform.
 
But it wasn't all smiles and rosy underneath that score.  Coach Johnson wasn't happy with what the offense did with their opportunities.  Wasting field position was a problem last week and there was improvement this week, but still not good enough.  Thanks to INTs, four drives began in Rice territory, which yielded two FGs a punt and the game's final TD.  For the third game in a row a false start in opponents territory, this time on 3rd down, contributed to a stalled drive.  Instead of facing 3rd and 1 at the 33, the penalty moved them back 5 yards resulting in an incomplete pass and a punt.  The 2nd and 3rd opportunities resulted in a 5 and 2 yard drives leading to short FGs.  All told Vanderbilt had three stalled trips inside the Rice 20 result in FGs of 37, 33 and 23 yards.  On a drive that started at their own 10 Vandy had 1st and 10 at the Rice 19, but a fumbled shotgun snap (again) resulting in an 18 yard loss followed by an incomplete pass then an INT before halftime and zero points.  
 
Despite some good numbers, the passing game is still a work in progress.  In making only his 5th start, Smith needs to improve in all areas and the pass blocking has been disappointing at times.  Rice got in on 3 sacks and 9 tkls for loss.
 
Also of concern, Vanderbilt was called for a season high 9 penalties for 74 yards (only 13 penalties in first 3 games).  Vandy went 3-and-out five times, still not good, but an improvement over last week's seven.  The Vanderbilt defense gave up a couple big plays that Myron Lewis attributed to some fatigue from the 88 degree temperature.  But the defense is leading this team, an occasional break down can be understood when they end up on the field too long.
 
But after last week's disappointing Mississippi State game, let's not dwell on the areas that still need improvement very long, there are some things to feel good about the victory.  

• Smith had statistical career highs in pass  attempts, completions and yards going 23-41-268y-INT (56%).  Seven  different receivers caught balls, led in receptions by John Cole (7) and yards  by Umoh Udom (95).
• Vanderbilt opened up the short passing game just a  bit to include a couple deeper throws (one deep 54y completion, another  overthrown).
• Warren Norman ran for 119 including a 58y  TD.  Jared Hawkins had 61 yards on 11 attempts, Reeves chipped in with  41.
• The defense continues to shine with 4 INTs  (Benoist, Foster, Lewis 2), 3 sacks (Billinger 1.5, Fugger .5 Kadri  2), 12 of Rice's 16 drives were less than 20  yards and 16% 3rd down conversions.
• K Ryan Fowler hit 3-for-3 FGs, 3 xpts and 2 touchbacks on 8 kickoffs (avg  67y).
• P Brett Upson averaged 43 yards with 3 of 8 being downed inside the 20 (2  touchback).
  

Injuries:

• Rice QB Nick Fanuzzi did not play.  Two other  Rice QBs went a combined 12-32-122y-1 TD-4 INTs.
• CB Jamie Graham did not play due to lingering  concussion symptoms.  Fr Eddie Foster took his place.
• S Sean Richardson was limited vs Rice with a leg  muscle injury.  In the game he tore a thumb ligament and has already had  surgery.  He is doubtful this week, but could play with a  cast.  LB/S Brent Trice started in Richardson's place vs Rice and  would again this week if necessary.
• Leading receiver, John Cole broke a bone in his  hand and had surgery as well.  Cole is doubtful this week.
• DE Steve Stone is not expected to return this  week.  He may return next week vs Army.
• DT TJ Greenestone is questionable (leg)
• RB Zac Stacy is questionable (ankle).  Stacy  a had 5 yards on 4 attempts in only the first half vs Rice.
• RB Jared Hawkins saw his first action of the year  and started vs Rice.  He is probable this week.
• Fr DB Eric Samuels appears ready to play more of a  role with his ankle injury behind him.  Samuels had an INT and fumble  recovery in week 1.
  

My thoughts:

Vanderbilt's offense is making some progress, but I don't think any VU fan expected them to falter vs Rice and truth-be-known, it wasn't very good in the first half and still needs sizable improvement to be effective vs quality teams.  We'll find out soon enough if after 4 weeks the offense is good enough to compete vs another SEC defense, it wasn't all bad vs LSU thanks largely to RBs Stacy and Reeves, but a disaster vs Mississippi St where nothing worked.
 
The defense will keep this team in almost every game.  With that kind of security blanket, if the offense can execute, take advantage of opportunities and just not make mistakes Vanderbilt will have a chance to compete.  Problem is right now they are having trouble with all three of those things.  It is the same old story - win with defense and special teams and don't beat yourself on offense, this is what the team must strive for because I don't think they are going to evolve into a very good offense vs SEC teams this year.  Stacy's ankle injury hurts because he was a special game changing RB.  Warren Norman has done well and will be counted on more obviously.  Some decent OL play vs LSU has gone backwards at times the last 2 weeks, maybe the season ending injury to Williams is having a bigger effect.  Vanderbilt's time of possession is last in the SEC, with no bye week and a banged up defense, Vanderbilt has to be more productive on offense.  It is a broken record to keep saying that, but it is the only glaring weakness on this team.  Hopefully it can all come together soon.
 
Ole Miss up next, a preview to come in a couple days.
 

September 26, 2009

September 20, 2009

Week 3 - Mississippi State at Vanderbilt, Recap
By: Scott Kennedy

Weekly overreactions are common in college football.  I've always got a kick out of how fans and media often act following a big win or loss, proclaiming one team destined for greatness while some other surely won't win another game this season.  Having said that, I need to do a little myself..it is time to panic in Nashville.
 
We've been optimistic on offensive improvement through the spring and summer.  We witnessed an offensive explosion in a week 1 tune-up game.  We chalk the LSU game up to youth and a learning experience.  Months and months of hope and faith and telling ourselves it would be different this year, it all came crashing down to earth in a pitiful offensive performance vs Mississippi State Saturday night.
 
Ominous beginning:
It was ugly from the start.  MSU ran the opening KO back for a TD, but it was called back by a holding call.  Vanderbilt only gained 1 FD in the 1st half, on their first play a Smith to Cole completion.  And it was all down hill from there.
 
Field position wasted:
Vandy special teams were able to pin MSU inside their own 15 on their first 5 possessions and for 4 of 5 of those drives, the defense kept them there.  The VU offense was unable to capitalize on good field position and scoring opportunities presented to them.  Contrary to MSU's starting field position, Vanderbilt was able to start drives near midfield 3 times in the first half, but couldn't make it any further than to the MSU 40.  
 
First half scoring:
MSU starting clicking late 1st qrt on a really nice drive.  The Bulldogs were able to move from their own 15 to the VU 33, accumulating 3 FDs in the process before the defense buckled down forcing a long field goal attempt.
 
3-0 MSU

Vandy's offensive struggles continued, but got a huge break on MSU's next possession when a Bulldog ball carrier fumbled at their own 10 yard line caused by Richardson, recovered by Fugger at the 6.  Three straight rush attempts by RB Reeves resulted in 3 yards total and a 20y FG.
 
3-3 tie

Both teams exchanged punts before MSU mounted another nice drive, an 11 play 52 yarder for a 27y FG.
 
6-3 MSU

Even though the game was just 6-3 half, you just felt totally dominated.  Sure Vandy could have punched that fumble in for a TD and could have had the lead.  Shoulda, coulda, woulda...the reality is that Vanderbilt's longest drive of the half was 11 yards!  On the other hand MSU had two drives over 50 yards.  The Vanderbilt defense did step up and stop another potential scoring drive as the 1st half ended.
 
First half stats
All MSU edges:  FDs 11-1, Total yards 172-23, Rush yards 117-4, Time of Possession 19:50-10:10  YUCK!

Second half adjustments not enough
Vanderbilt took their opening possession 28 yards in 9 plays moving into MSU territory and registered two FDs, double their 1st half total - progress!
 
Following the punt MSU then moves the ball into Vandy territory on a 8 play 38 yard drive before having to punt themselves.
 
Vanderbilt again moves into MSU territory on a 9 play 32 yard drive before failing to convert on a 3rd and 2.  Forced to punt.
 
Following another MSU punt, Vanderbilt's Alex Washington muffed it and MSU recovered at Vandy's 36.  Defense holds forcing a 49y FG.
 
9-3 MSU

Vanderbilt really had some potential in the 4th quarter.  Smith hit Washington on a big gainer into MSU territory.  A potential 45y TD went just off the finger tips of a diving John Cole in the EZ really hurt.  Punt.
 
Vanderbilt's next possession went 9 plays 26 yards to the MSU 31.  VU was going for a 4th and 8, but for the second week in a row, a false start kills a 4th down attempt and a potential score.  Punt.
 
After playing a terrific game, the Vanderbilt defense broke down allowing a 40y Dixon run and then a 4th and 2 conversion followed later by a 22y Lee run for TD iced the game with 3:20 left.  2 pt attempt no good.
 
15-3 MSU

On Vanderbilt's final drive, down by 2 scores they could have had a TD on a John Cole on a post pattern, but the pass was out of the reach of a diving Cole.  Aided by two MSU 15 yard penalties, Vandy gets to the 22 before Smith makes a poor throw while scrambling and is intercepted at the 9.
 
15-3 Final

Game Stats:
All edges MSU:  18-10 FD (two of Vandy's FDs were by penalty on their final drive), 341-157 Total yards, 260-33 Rush yards (Vandy 1.1 ypc), 38:00-22:00 Time of Possession.  

Smith completed 37% of 32 attempts for just 124 yards.  Warren Norman led the team in rushing with 26 yards for 3.7 ypc.  Cole caught 3 balls for 32 yards.

Vandy fumbled 4 times, losing 1 and a 1-2 TO deficit.

Vanderbilt was 30% on 3rd down vs MSU's 13% 3rd down conversion rate.

LBs Chris Marve had 15 tkls, Benoist had 13 and S Richardson 10.  The team was credited with 9 tkls for loss and 2 sacks.

My thoughts:

By and large, Vanderbilt's defense played a heck of a game.  There were some breakdowns here and there, but their effort kept Vanderbilt in this game and was good enough to win.  But the offense just could not deliver.  The defense was dealing with starting CB Casey Hayward forced to leave the game due to migraine headaches.  S Joel Caldwell in for injured Ryan Hamilton missed a couple big tackles allowing big gainers in the second half.  There were some other missed tackles and plays on D, but really to be fair to them, they gave great effort and again, with any offensive support it should have been good enough for the win.
 
On offense, there is nothing to be positive about.  I felt that MSU's D would really come in here looking to amend for the Auburn performance, but I didn't quite expect this.  They controlled the line, they got pressure at times rushing 4, the bottled up the run.  Smith made bad decisions, bad throws.  When Smith did make a nice throw the receivers dropped the ball more often than not.  The play calling was really concerning.  I had mentioned following the LSU game I wished they would try to stretch the field more and felt the same way this week.  Had a couple misses on deeper throws late in the 2nd half, but why wait a whole half to open it up a bit?  Arm chair QBing is easy, but it just seems they could be trying so much more within the offense that isn't being tried.  Last week two key plays on the TD vs LSU were screens and throws in the flat to Stacy and Reeves, yet no RBs caught a pass in this game.  Justin Green's move to WR had really exciting potential this summer and he caught a TD in the opener.  He's been missing in action the last 2 games.
 
Super Fr Zac Stacy was hobbling around and was limited.  His injury isn't believed to be serious.  Warren Norman and Reeves should be capable replacements, but there was just no running against MSU's 8 and 9 man fronts.  Smith and the passing game is absolutely going to have to open the defenses up or there is no hope.
 
And then there are little things, like Smith fumbling the snaps, the false start penalties.  This offense has a hard enough time making first downs we don't need to make the distance to gain greater and throw away opportunities because of our own mistakes.  A hurry-up offense that can't move the ball is really detrimental to our defense.  Considering all the 3-and-out possessions the offense had and the personnel losses the defense has been dealing with it really makes you appreciate what the defense is accomplishing.  But they can't hold out for ever.
 
This is going to be a tough week for the Vanderbilt players mentally.  They need to have a great week of practice looking forward and not backwards.  Traveling to Rice is going to be a tougher challenge than originally expected.  But if this team stays together and the defense keeps delivering great effort and if the offense can start hitting some plays in the passing game with a little more openness in the play calling, then Vanderbilt should be 2-2 coming home to face Ole Miss, which now looks more scary than anticipated.  There are still 9 games left and alot for this team to accomplish.  I just wish we had a bye week in there somewhere.  The play of Smith and the receivers leaves alot to be desired and the coaches are really going to have to figure some things out before the next game.

September 17, 2009

Week 3 - Mississippi State at Vanderbilt, 7:00 EST
By: Scott Kennedy

TV:  Fox Sports South / SUN
Radio: 104.5 The Zone Nashville, 107.9 Starkville, XM 200 / Sirius 214

Line (open/changes/current): -8 / 8.5 / 9 / 9.5 / 9
Total: 44.5 / 45
Money Line: Vandy -350 / Miss St +290

MSU - Vanderbilt History
Of the original SEC members this is Vandy's most infrequent opponent.  MSU has a 11-7-2 edge in the series and have won 9 of the last 11.  However, Vanderbilt owns a 6-4-2 advantage at home vs the Bulldogs.  Coach Johnson is 1-2 vs MSU, 1-0 in Nashville.

Vanderbilt has been the favorite the last two meetings in 2004 and 2008 with a 1-1 record.  Dating back to the 1990s Vandy has only won once, 2004 as a 13 pt favorite.  MSU has won and covered 4 of the last 5.

Last season Vanderbilt was riding high on a 5 game winning streak off the Auburn victory that had ESPN Gameday on campus, #13 ranked VU traveled to MSU as a small favorite and lost 14-17 an a rather ugly game.

SEC Statistical Rankings after week 2:
MSU / Vanderbilt
Scoring Offense: 8 / 9
Rushing Offense: 7 / 3
Passing Offense: 11 / 12
Total Offense: 8 / 7
3rd Down %: 8 / T-9

Scoring Defense: 11 / 4
Rushing Defense: 12 / 7
Passing Eff Defense: 9 / 6
Total Defense: 12 / 5
Turnover Margin: 6 / 2

Last Week:
Both teams lost their conference opener last week on the road after wins vs over matched IAA teams to start the season.

Vanderbilt managed to keep their game at LSU tight and competitive, detail of that game can be found in the previous blog.

MSU's defense struggled as Auburn scored early and often last week.  Auburn had 2 RBs top 100 yards rushing and rolled up nearly 600 yards of total offense to under 300 for MSU.  MSU did overcome a rough start with two 3-and-out and an INT on their 3rd drive and trailing 14-0 MSU then scored 17 straight points (one was a blk'd punt ret for TD) for a 17-14 lead.  Auburn then rattled off 28 unanswered points before each team exchanged 4th qrt TDs for the 24-49 final.  Auburn's 49 points represented their best scoring effort since 2005.  MSU allowed 6.6 ypc on 390 rush yards.

Mississippi State Notes:

Coaches:
MSU is ofcourse coached this year by former Florida OC Dan Mullen.  Mullen had coached with Urban Meyer since 1999 back at Notre Dame.  Mullen served as Meyer's QB coach at Bowling Green and Utah before arriving in Florida as the OC/QB coach in 2005.  His staff has a couple assistants from his Florida days and two defensive coaches were retained from Croom's staff.  The new OC (Koenning) and DC (Torbush) are both veteran coaches with SEC experience.

Offense:Last season QB Tyson Lee was under center for their upset over Vandy.  This season he finds himself in a 2 QB rotation with Soph Chris Relf.  Lee is considered more of the thrower and Relf the runner.  They have typically been alternating each possession, but sometimes within the same drive.

Both have attempted around 20 attempts with Lee completing 62.5%, Relf only 57% and 2 INTs.  Relf actually leads the team in rushing with 134 yards and 7.1 average.  RB Anthony Dixon returned from a 1 game suspension last week to lead the team with 92 yards (4.6ypc). Dixon shares the backfield with fellow Sr Christian Ducre.

MSU is relying on several newcomers at receiver.  Sr Brandon McRae leads the team in receptions, but Leon Berry (JUCO), Chad Bumphis (Fr), ONeal Wilder (rFr) are playing their first season for the Bulldogs.  The top 2 TEs (or Y receiver) are Sophs. 

Outside of the very experienced backfield, the strength of the offense is probably the offensive line.  They entered the 2009 season with the same number of career starts returning (67) as Vanderbilt.  In two games they've only given up 1 sack for 2 yards.  The starting 5 is filled with 1 Sr, 2 Jr and 2 So.  One of the Sophs, LG Saulsberry, started all 12 last season as a rFr.

Defense:
The defense has a few starters back sprinkled throughout.  Last season DE Sean Ferguson was just the second Bulldog to start the first game of their career last season.  This season he has been beaten out by highly touted JUCO Pernell McPhee who is 275 lbs playing at DE.  He was expected to play DT, but his excellent pass rushing ability has moved him to the edge.  Jr Cooper and rFr Bell have been splitting at the other DE spot.  At DT Srs Burns and Love have 71 career games and 22 starts.  The starters avg 277.5.  Love is the only 300 pounder in the line's 2-deep.

The defense and LB unit welcomes back MLB Jamar Chaney who was injured in last year's opener.  Chaney was 2nd Team SEC in 2007 and the team's #1 tackler.  He is joined by Jr KJ Wright who coaches think has NFL potential.  So far this season Wright has totaled 10 tackles (2 for loss), 1 sack, 1 forced fumble and 1 fumble recovery.  Chris White comes in from JUCO to man the other starting LB spot.

The secondary is the Bulldog's most inexperienced position.  Outside of Sr CB Marcus Washington and his 21 career starts, the remaining players had just 2 starts returning prior to the 09 season.  Those 2 starts belonged to FS Zach Smith who has played in 24 of 25 career games.  Coaches are high on So SS Charles Mitchell who now has 2 starts in 2009 after playing in 12 games with 31 tkls as a true Fr last season.  The team's media guide calls him "electrifying".  The other CB spot is pretty inexperienced with either be So Anderson, rFr Watson or rFr Broomfield.

Other:
MSU special teams were pretty underwhelming last season and P, K, PR, KR will be manned by all new faces this season.

Penalties have been a big problem so far this season, in their 22 penalties ranks 113th.  Mullen attributes most of those to players thinking too much and not reacting and expects it to improve as they get more comfortable in the new schemes.

Vanderbilt Notes:
I don't know if the majority of people reading my Vanderbilt blogs are actually Commodore fans or not, but still if you've been following along then you should pretty much know the players by now.

Vanderbilt comes in here missing a total of 4 players who were considered to be starters in August.  DE Steve Stone remains out for now, RT Williams and FS Hamilton suffered season ending injuries last week and RB Jared Hawkins is still trying to overcome soreness in his foot stemming from last season and surgery this offseason.  It is unclear when, or even if, Hawkins can return this season.

The running game has remained strong and is improved even without Hawkins thanks to true Fr Zac Stacy and his 222 yards on 40 carries (5.6 ypc) this season.  Stacy is currently the SEC's 4th leading rusher.  Veteran Reeves and fellow Fr Warren Norman have also ran well.

Reports on Thursday had rFr Caleb Welchans at the starting RT spot, but OL coach Caldwell indicated that Fischer and Lauer can play both guard and tackle spots.  Right now Lauer is listed as 2nd RG and RT.  With the Williams loss, the OL doesn't lose much experience and there is no reason to be overly concerned about this OL even with his loss.

QB Larry Smith will make his 4th career start this week and look to improve vs an inexperienced MSU secondary. Last week Smith only completed 46% of his attempts in a short passing attack.  VU is looking for much improved play from the receiving unit who was unable to catch many balls that Smith put on target last week.  Vanderbilt might be able to rely on the running game vs MSU, but I really hope they work on the passing game alot.

On defense, So DE Tim Fugger continues to start in place of Stone.   5th year Sr Joel Caldwell steps into Hamilton's open FS starting spot.  Caldwell is a capable replacement, but the loss of Hamilton's leadership and experience will be certainly missed.  There is now only one 2008 starter in the VU secondary and the 2-deep is filled with freshmen.  Starting LB Brent Trice may split time between LB and FS as situations dictate.  Starting nickle back Jamie Graham is also listed as 2nd team SS.  I don't know Eric Samuels's status right now, he is probably questionable at best.  DC Jamie Bryant says moving people around to different position is something they plan on and practice accordingly, something that really paid off last week.

My thoughts:
This is certainly a game that Vanderbilt should win, and if the program wants to continue evolving and turning that corner, a game it needs to win.  Vanderbilt is in much better position than MSU.  This will be the offense's third game running the hurry-up, no-huddle after having faced a very week team to start the season and then a very good team, now take on what looks to be a bottom tier SEC defense.  MSU will provide enough of a challenge to make Vanderbilt have to earn their yards and points, but if this new offense is going to work, it must work against a team like Mississippi State.  Alot of things are new for MSU and each week they are going to grow and learn, but I'd hope a quality defense like Vanderbilt can keep them behind the curve a bit and should be able to get a few turnovers.  I am just a bit hesitant on the Vanderbilt offense vs Miss St defense matchup even though Miss St struggled last week.  I have faith our offense can and will improve, but I also know that they probably aren't going to dominate this game the way Auburn did last week.  Miss St will surely be looking to correct their errors and redeem themselves here and go all out to try and split their 2 game conference road trip.  I wouldn't be surprised if it is fairly close and low scoring game.  After taking Vandy and the 14 last week, I'm going to stay away from this one, but I do not envision an upset.

September 14, 2009

Week 2 - Vanderbilt at LSU, Recap
By: Scott Kennedy

Most every Vanderbilt fan thought the team would compete well, probably keep it close with a chance to pull the upset if everything went right.  Vanderbilt did compete well and was able to keep the game close, but really not much went right in terms of doing what it takes to beat a team like LSU.  Some people will talk about this or that play here and there, but LSU had a couple of those type plays themselves.  It was an encouraging game, but ultimately about what I expected.
 
For those of you who did not watch the game I'll run through it below.
 
1st quarter:
 
I thought the election to take the ball after winning the coin toss said something about the confidence in the offense and sent a message about taking the game to LSU.  Make no mistake, Vanderbilt was here to win.
 
The opening drive went to the LSU 33 and was lined up to go for a 4th and 3 play, but a false start killed the opportunity for a third 1st down on the drive and the chance of getting on the board first.
 
Vandy punted which was downed at the LSU 7 and Vanderbilt forced a 3-and-out with Tigers only gaining 5 yards on the drive.  QB Jefferson and LaFell just nearly missed on a 20y hook up on their first play.
 
With VU back with the ball at midfield following the punt, Vanderbilt then went 3-and-out missing on a 1st down throw down the sideline to TE Barden followed by a short Smith rush and a short pass completion to TE Barden tackled short of the 1st down.  Punt.
 
From their 22, LSU's second possession featured some QB runs, once when VU pass rush flushed Jefferson out of the pocket and the other a designed run by Fr QB Shepard who got up-ended by Myron Lewis.  Now in VU territory, Shepard then lined up at WR and caught the ball where he was jacked up by Marve forcing a fumble that Vandy recovered.
 
Vandy takes over at their own 40, but again went 3-and-out with 3 straight pass plays with only one short completion.  On 3rd and 7 Smith scrambled from the pocket, running out of bounds for a loss.  He had no need to scramble as the OL did a great job protecting and he actually had plenty of time to stand in and continue looking for a receiver to open rather than running out.  The prior play Smith did stand in and make a throw (although incomplete) with an LSU defender near his feet.  Punt.
 
LSU's 3rd possession ended up as 9 play 69 yard TD drive.  This drive was aided by two 15 yard face mask penalties.  Without those penalties LSU would have faced a 3rd and 3 at midfield and on the second would have had a 4th and 1 at the 13.  This drive was full of defensive errors by Vanderbilt.  Aside from the penalties, WR Chris Mitchell was allowed to run free behind the defense for what would have surely been a 40y TD pass, but Jefferson over threw him.  Later on 3rd and 10 WR Tolliver caught the ball short, S Hamilton should have been in position to make the tackle before the 1st down marker, but he took a bad angle allowing a 12 yard completion.  The TD run was a pitch to RB Williams, DE Brannon grabbed his jersey from behind, but was not enough to keep him out of the end zone.  Lewis also had a chance at him near the goal line, but missed.
 
7-0 LSU

With some rain moving in Vandy started their 4th drive with their worst field position of the night.  After 5 of their last 6 plays were passes, Vandy went back to the ground with Stacy including a run out of the "Stallion" for a 5 yard gain.  On 3rd down Stacy ran a draw and was tackled at the line.  This drive was their 3rd straight 3-and-out possession.  LSU took over on the punt near midfield.
 
1st qrt stats:
Time of possession was nearly even, but LSU had double the yards with a 97 to 48 advantage.  LSU also led in FDs 6 to 2 and 50% on 3rd down vs Vandy's 20%.  Vanderbilt committed 3 penalties totaling 27 yards.

2nd quarter:

This drive featured great execution and speed by the LSU rushing attack.  Vanderbilt's defense just missed a very deep sack as Jefferson scrambled for just a 3 yard loss.  Vanderbilt was beat to the edge a few times for decent gainers.  With LSU at the VU 12 on 3rd and 3, Richardson came up from his S spot with a great tackle on the RB.  With 4th and 1 the crowd shouting "go" Miles decided kick what ended up being a 32y FG after a delay of game penalty.
 
10-0 LSU

On Vandy's first possession of the 2nd qrt, Stacy fumbled a 1st down snap from his Stallion spot on what was a trick play with Smith lined up at WR, Umoh picked up the fumble, pitched to Smith who came in motion, but LSU was not fooled and his pass to Umoh was incomplete with 3 LSU players in the neighborhood.  Key play this drive was a 3rd and 10 screen to Stacy who made 3 LSU defenders miss on his way to a nice 12 run after catch.  LSU pass rusher knocked down Smith's next pass.  Smith then hit RB Reeves wide open in the flat for another 1st down.  Next play LSU dropped an easy INT as LB Sheppard read the route and jumped in front of the ball, but dropped it.  Had he picked it off it may have been an LSU TD.  Smith then ran for 9 yards to create 3rd and 1.  Stacy took a pitch who ran to the 21 yard line, a really nice looking 26 yarder.  TE Monahan dropped a pass around the 5.  On 2nd down Reeves had a tough run bouncing off some LSU players to pick up another 1st down.  2 plays later Smith kept the ball on a zone read for a 6 yard TD run.  Smith actually dropped the ball, but was able to scoop it up and ran in untouched.  It was a 12 play 80 yard drive with two 3rd down conversions.  Some very nice running and blocking on this drive.
 
10-7 LSU

After a 1st down, two plays later Vanderbilt got great pressure rushing 5 and just nearly made a big sack, but Jefferson was able to get it away to LaFell for a first down.  LSU OL then blew up the Vandy DL for a big 10y run by Scott.  It was however, negated by a holding penalty making it 1st and 20.  Vanderbilt then registered back-to-back tackles for loss on quick passes to LaFell.  Richardson was in on both plays.  On 3rd and very long Broderick Stewart was really really close to getting a sack, but Jefferson escaped for a 5 y gain.
 
VU ball on their own 25 following the punt.  Smith bought some time, rolled out for a 9y completion to Cole.  With the rain picking up, Smith wasn't able to handle a high snap on what looked like an option play.  Instead of working with 2nd and 1, they now faced 3rd and 10.  A pass to Cole at the line of scrimmage was dropped.  Vandy was called with a delay of game penalty moving Upson back to punt standing on his own 5y line.
 
LSU takes over with 1:05 left following a muffed punt on their own 31.  Key play was a 3rd and 6 where Jefferson rolls out escaping pressure and finds RJ Jackson behind Hayward and Graham for a 30 yard gain.  Two plays later LSU takes a chance to the end zone testing Lewis who nearly made the INT.  LSU then picked up a first down with a 5y run on 3rd and 4, followed by a 20y pass to LaFell down to the 5.  With only :06 left Miles elected to kick the 22y FG rather than try another shot at the EZ
 
13-7 LSU.

2nd qrt stats
LSU had a 10:40 to 4:20 TOP edge, 7 to 4 FD and 135 to 80 yard advantage.  Both teams converted 66% 3rd downs.

1st half stats
For the half LSU led in yards (232 to 128), plays (41 to 32), first downs (13 to 6) and time of possession (18:23 to 11:37).

3rd qrt

The rain had some people leaving in the first half, after halftime maybe about 1/4 to 1/3 of the crowd had left.  
 
A short kick allowed LSU to begin at their 41y line.  LSU opens with two big Scott runs behind powerful LSU blocking.  After a run for no gain, Jefferson passes to RB Murphy in the flat who hurdled Lewis, but was then jacked up by Marve.  When Murphy's right foot landed he injured his knee and it was later determined he requires season ending surgery.  LSU then completed some short passes.  Later on 1st down from the Vandy 16, Shepard came in at QB and runs for 8 yards making Hayward and Foster miss in the process.  A rather obvious hold by Dickson on Marve was not called however.  Two plays later 3rd and 2 Lewis flew up to bring down Tolliver near the first down line forcing a 4th down.  Crowd again wanted Miles to go for it on 4th and 1, but Jasper comes in for his 3rd FG, this one a 24 yarder.
 
16-7 LSU

VU's 1st possession of 2nd half began with a penalty on the kick brought them back to the 23.  Stacy and then Smith on a draw run to move the chains.  The following play, a run by Stacy resulted in no gain, but RT James Williams was rolled into from behind resulting in a broken ankle.  rFr Welchans replaced him in the lineup.  A later 3rd and 5 pass was tipped at the line and fell incomplete.  Punt.
 
Vandy defense created some havoc on the LSU drive with Stewart getting a tkl for loss on an option play.  Then with just a 4 man rush they flush Jefferson out and force him to throw it away.  A 3rd and 12 blitz results in a Benoist sack.
 
With the ball in LSU territory following the punt, Smith throws incomplete deep to Washington who was double covered.  A 5 yard penalty gives them 1st and 5 and VU is able to bang some yards for another 1st down.  LSU's DL blew up the next two running plays with back-to-back tkls for loss.  On 3rd and long Smith stands in with pressure in his face, but an open Ashley can not bring it in.  The ball was a little high and behind him, but was also catchable and would have resulted in a big gainer.  The ensuing punt went 36 yards for a touch back.
 
Vanderbilt's defense again makes some terrific plays forcing the second straight 3-and-out possession.  Hayward gets around a block to take down LaFell for a loss.  After a short Scott run, with great pressure Benoist gets in for his second sack.  On 4th down the snap sails over the punter's head for a safety.
 
16-9 LSU

Now a 1 score game late 3rd quarter, Vanderbilt is alive and starts it's drive on the 39.  Following a short Stacy run, with great protection on 2nd down Smith decides to pull it down and run for 7y.  On 3rd and 1 Stacy follows great blocking for an 8y gain.  As the 3rd quarter ends, Smith is flushed and tackled at the line of scrimmage.  Reeves replaces Stacy and provides a couple of real nice runs taking the ball to the LSU 23.  On 3rd and 7, Smith finds Washington over the middle for a would-be 1st down, but Washington can't handle it and the ball deflects for an INT.
 
3rd qrt stats
LSU again leads in TOP 9:38 to 5:22, but FDs are even at 3 and Vandy holds the yardage edge 41-23.  All of Vanderbilt's yards were rushing.

For the third consecutive drive the Vanderbilt defense answers the bell.  Scott is tkled for loss, Holiday then nearly tkled for loss and a 3rd down completion doesn't make the first down distance.  Punt.
 
From their own 27 Vandy opens with a 7y Stacy run, followed by a completion to Monahan for 1st down.  Two plays later Smith fumbles the snap and on 3rd and 13 Smith is hurried, nearly sacked and called for intentional grounding.  4th and 24.
 
Holiday returns the punt 20 yards into VU territory.  It appeared the Vanderbilt defense once again rose to the occasion with a INT on a long pass picked by Caldwell near the goal line.  But Marve is called for holding on TE Dickson.  LSU is now on the 24 and after a couple short gainers RB Williams takes it 14y for TD.
 
23-9 LSU

Vanderbilt's final drive includes a 4th and 6 11 yard completion to Cole.  The previous play Smith's pass protection was very good, but he scrambled out and threw the ball away.  TV announcers say Cole was open on the play.  A couple plays later LSU DE Edwards speed rushes RT Welchans beating him badly and sacks Smith forcing a fumble.  3rd and long Smith hits Monahan for 15 yards.  4th and 2 Washington open short over middle, but drops the ball.
 
LSU takes over at Vandy 46 with 2:55 left.  A couple of strong runs take it to the 17 with :30 left Miles signals for the victory formation.
 
23-9 LSU Final

4th qrt stats
More LSU edges in TOP 8:22 to 6:38, FD 6 to 3 (Vandy 0-4 on 3rd down) and a 71 to 40 yard edge.

2nd half stats
LSU TOP 18:00 to 13:00, 9 to 6 FDs (Vandy 0-6 3rd downs) and 94 to 81 yardage edge.

Game stats
LSU - 36:23 TOP, 326 TY, 178 RY (4.2), 148 PY (7.0 per completion), 22 FD, 3 FD via VU penalty, 5 penalties for 28y, 5 tackles for loss, 3 sacks, 1 Turnover, 53% 3rd down

Vandy - 23:37 TOP, 210 TY, 122 RY (3.7), 210 PY (8.0 per completion), 12 FD, 7 penalties for 52y, 10 tkls for loss, 3 sacks, 1 Turnover, 26% 3rd down

Four players had 10+ tackles for Vanderbilt - Hayward (13), Marve (11), Richardson (10), Trice (10) and Benoist finished with 9.  Hayward had 4 tackles for loss.  RB Stacy ran for 90y on 20 att (4.4) and Reeves chipped in with 35 on 5 att (7.0).  Smith completed 46% and TE Monahan led in receiving with 3rec for 25y.

My thoughts

If you don't want to read everything above, in short...there were some positives, some negatives, but really it could have been alot worse.  I suppose it depends on one's perspective, but LSU was inside the Vanderbilt 20 six times.  They got 2 TDs and 3 FGs out of that.  The FGs were from the 15, 5 and 7 yard lines.  The first was originally on the 10 prior to a delay of game penalty.  The game ended on the Vandy 17 with only the clock and Miles' class preventing another potential score.  The snap out of the endzone for a safety can be seen as nothing more than a gift.  LB Sheppard did drop a potential defensive TD as well.  I look back at this game and think how much different the score could have been.  As a Vandy +14 backer I feel rather lucky, having been on the other end of the stick, people with LSU +14 were surely cursing Miles out.  The under worked out, but it isn't too hard to see the points left off the board.
 
Now there were lots of things that could have been different for Vanderbilt.  Who knows what would have happened on their opening drive where they were going for it on 4th, but had to punt because of penalty.  There were plenty of drops, many of first down.  Washington's one drop was especially costly since it was a one score game and LSU got an INT off of it.  Vandy had some key penalties giving LSU first downs and negating a INT of their own.  
 
There are "what if" scenarios on both sides that could have changed the game more in their favor.  
 
Defense

I'm sure LSU fans are blaming play calling and Jefferson's reads for the tight game, but they need to give credit to this Vanderbilt defense.  They absolutely took away anything deep.  They forced Jefferson and the play calling to the short passing game and Vandy was all over it.  Vanderbilt was very close to a couple sacks and they did good in the running game as well.  The defense showed so many different looks, blitzing from different areas, often rushing 5 as they rarely got pressure with just the front 4.  There is only a few plays that stick out to me where I'd mark against the defense.  1st qrt Mitchell was left wide open streaking into the EZ (Jefferson overthrew), the one 30 pass where Jackson got behind both Graham and Hayward.  This completion on 3rd down kept their 2nd qrt eventual FG drive alive.  While it was impressive seeing guys fly to the line to take down LSU receivers on those short passes, when LSU ran outside from the backfield, their speed beat Vandy to the corner almost every time and resulted in several good gainers for them.  Vanderbilt did a good job vs the run in the middle of the field.  LSU's OL got the better of them a couple times, but Vandy stuffed them a few as well.  
 
I was surprised that LSU played so much no-huddle up-tempo game.  They were often in 4 wide and even empty sets.  They were very very multiple tonight.  Our defense had some trouble vs them on 3rd down in the middle of the game, but all in all I felt good about how the defense played.
 
Offense

The passing game was the most discouraging thing, which was kind of expected.  Not only the drops, which were many and some key, but also the lack of field stretching attempts.  I can only think of 2 that were thrown 20 yards or beyond and one of those was on a trick play.  Now, same thing with LSU, maybe the defense was taking it away, but I feel it was more of a game plan issue on the short attempts.  Had more of them been completed I might not have complained about it at all.  It is just one game vs some great competition, but the passing offense is going to have to grow alot to upset teams like LSU.  It was pretty clear that Smith scrambled out of the pocket way too early a few times.  But then again he stood in there well at times too.  He is a young QB who will likely improve with time.  But I can't help but think to the Miami - Florida State game this past Labor Day.  Jacory Harris was under pressure and he would float in the pocket, eyes always downfield, never looking to run.  Harris obviously had a terrific game, but I kept thinking about him while watching Smith vs LSU.  Wishful thinking?
 
The running game was of course very encouraging.  It is great having a RB like Stacy, but Reeves really ran hard and was a huge part of the success.  The pass blocking was really good at times and I thought they blocked great on a few of the runs creating nice lanes for the backs.
 
The no-huddle hurry up was designed to dictate tempo and create advantages for the offense, but if the offense can't stay on the field they really put the defense in a bad position.  LSU is a tough opponent for the 2nd game of a new offense, so I think it is reasonable to think it will improve dramatically over the next couple weeks.
 
Special Teams
Fowler didn't get to attempt any FGs and Upson was good with one inside the 20, but also one touchback on a short field punt.  The coverage units were good, except for one late game return by Holiday.
 
Injuries

Two very significant season ending injuries occured vs LSU.  S Ryan Hamilton, a 5th yr Senior and team captain will miss the season with a torn pec muscle.  I remember some time in the first half on tackle near the sideline he appeared to get up odd and slow.  I think he played the entire first half with the injury.  Commodores are down another starter in Soph RT James Williams.  Williams emergence in preseason camp allowed the VU OL to be shuffled getting their best 5 on the field at one time.  William's ankle was broken when players rolled into him from behind.  There were other injuries in the game as well that required several defensive players to move around.  Starting LB Benoist and Nickle back Graham missed some 2nd half action as well.  DB Eric Samuels was already out from an ankle injury week 1.  Fr CB Eddie Foster was forced into action due to the injuries. Johnson said they had some LBs playing safety and DBs playing LB.  It makes the defensive performance even more impressive considering the shuffling that was going on.  News has also come out that Jr LB Nate Campbell has been dismissed for violating team rules and is no longer enrolled in school.
 
Coach Johnson's Monday Call-In Show

September 10, 2009

Week 2 - Vanderbilt at LSU, 7:00 EST
By: Scott Kennedy

TV: ESPNU
Radio: 104.5 The Zone Nashville, 98.1 Baton Rouge, XM 198 / Sirius 216
 
Line (open/changes/current): LSU -14 / 14.5 / 15.5 / 14.5
Total: 46.5 / 46 / 45.5 / 45
Money Line: Vandy +460, LSU -620
 
Conference Opener:
Vanderbilt has not faired well over the years in SEC openers.  Since 1984, VU has won just 5 of their last 25 conference openers, although 2 of those 5 wins have come in the last 4 years (05 @ Ark, 08 vs SC).  Vandy has won 5 straight games broadcast on ESPN family of networks, with a 5-2 record overall, 2-1 on ESPNU.
 
Surprisingly, LSU has struggled in conference openers as well.  Coach Miles is only 2-2 in such games, LSU is 4-5 in conference openers since 2000.  On the other hand, LSU has won 30 consecutive Saturday night home games and since 2000 that record is 43-4.  LSU has won 17 straight ESPN games, this is their first appearance on ESPNU.
 
Vanderbilt - LSU history:
This will mark the 29th meeting of the series with LSU holding a 20-7-1 edge.  The last Vanderbilt win was 1990, which was also the conference opener that season in which VU won at home 24-21 as a 17 point underdog.  Since then LSU has won 5 straight, but has only covered once in that span with the average line being 17.6 and an average score of 23.2 - 6.6.  Should LSU win again, it would tie the longest streak in the series at 6.  Commodores haven't won in Baton Rouge since 1951.
 
SEC Statistical Ratings after week 1:
LSU / Vanderbilt
Scoring Offense: 10 / T-4
Rushing Offense: 9 / 1
Passing Offense: T-9 / 7
Total Offense: 10 / 3
 
Scoring Defense: 10 / T-1
Rushing Defense: 11 / 2
Passing Defense: 12 / 2
Total Defense: 12 / 2
 
The Game:
Both Vanderbilt and LSU have something to prove this season, but for different reasons.  Vanderbilt wants to repeat and continue to build on the success of 2008 despite being pegged by many for a losing season this year.  LSU on the other hand is trying to rebound from a rare season in which they finished with a losing conference record and ranking in the bottom third of SEC teams in several key defensive categories.
 
Forecasts are different too.  By and large the media and national prognosticators have labeled Vanderbilt's 08 season a fluke, while LSU entered this season ranked 9th and 11th in the preseason coaches and AP polls.
 
The season's got off to different start for these two.  Vanderbilt obliterated their week 1 opponent Western Carolina setting multiple records in the process.  Nobody has any illusions of using W Carolina as any type of measuring stick for the 2009 Commodore team, but the results are encouraging none-the-less.
 
Washington traveled 4000 miles round trip to take on a Washington team who went 0-12 last season.  Washington is rebuilding and several indicators point to a much stronger UW team this year, however the results from the game is somewhat surprising.
 
Under first year defensive coordinator John Chavis (formerly of Tennessee), the LSU defense was expected to make vast improvement this year.  So it was surely troubling to Tiger fans that UW raked up 478 yards of total offense, more than any of LSU's 2008 opponents including Florida.  Miles seemed to brush it off saying "I saw the kind of Tiger defense tonight that I wanted to see" and giving much credit and praise to Washington offense and QB Locker.  He also identified 5 plays as the main culprit to the defense's struggles.  Some of the Tiger defenders attribute it to the long trip, late kickoff and first action under new DC and the new scheme.  They are all expecting improvement this week.
 
On offense, LSU ran it's fewest plays ever under Miles (48) as UW controlled the clock with a 14 minute time of possesion edge.  LSU even went 3-and-out four drives.  According to coaches, they only used about 10% of their offensive playbook and said it was hard for players to develop a rhythm both rushing and passing.  The Tigers felt like their offense came around late in the game once they got the defense on their heels.
 
If nothing else that game provides Vanderbilt fans with some optimism.  Vanderbilt's offensive struggles last season are well documented, but this season with Larry Smith as QB and the new up tempo, no-huddle offense with a more explosive running attack Vanderbilt expects improvement and the Western Carolina results atleast make our mouths water at the potential.
 
Still there is a lot of uncertainty and questions heading into the game.  How will Smith handle is first true road start in one of the toughest stadiums in the country?  How about the true freshman dotting the 2-deep?  Will the execution of the no-huddle work smoothly with 90,000+ screaming Tiger fans?  Can the Vandy defense hold up like we expect them to?  Will we be able to make FGs?  How much might the LSU D improve from week 1 to week 2?
 
Match-ups

Vanderbilt OL vs LSU DL
A key matchup for Vanderbilt's success will be our experienced OL (66 career starts among top 7 players) vs the less experienced LSU D front (29 career starts among top 5 players).  While the start figure is low, DE Alem was all conference despite only starting once in 2008 and the starting group is mostly upperclassmen. The LSU DL accounted for both sacks vs Washington last week.  The top 3 DTs average 300 lbs, figuring in the DEs the line averages 286 lbs.  Vandy's starting 5 OL avg 306.  LSU only played 3 DTs last week, JUCO Akiem Hicks DNP vs UW and is listed as day-to-day with an undisclosed injury.  Aside from Hicks, LSU's DL depth is made up exclusively with true and redshirt FR.
 
LSU allowed 4.1 ypc vs UW last week, which compared to last season would rank as tied for the 3rd highest allowed.  Facing much weaker competition, Vanderbilt opened holes for 6.2 ypc last week.  In 2008 Vanderbilt struggled to run the ball vs SEC West teams, but did manage 4.4 ypc vs Georgia.
 
Injury of note - Starting DE Lazarius "Pep" Levingston is listed as questionable due to knee injury suffered in the 4th qrt last week. Miles reports it isn't real serious, not a surgery issue, but it could keep him out a game.  He was replaced last week by rFr Chancey Aghayere and rFr Lavar Edwards.  One of those two would start if Levingston is unable to go.   
 
Vanderbilt DL vs LSU OL
VU DE Steven Stone remains out with foot injury, Tim Flugger started in his place.  As stated before DE is one of the best depth positions on the team with Kadri and Brannon seeing significant action last week.  Broderick Stewart has played in 36 career games having both experience and speed.  What the other guys lack in experience they make up for in speed.  The 2-deep DEs average 242, Stewart is only 228.  DTs Billinger, Smotherman and Greenstone avg 289 for a total DL average of 265 lbs.
 
Vanderbilt feels good about their DT position with two upperclassmen in Billinger and Smotherman and TJ Greenstone being a top reserve.  Greenstone was Def Player of Game last week coming off the bench.  Billinger was absent from the W Carolina stat sheet, but his presence allowed other DTs and LBs to make plays.
 
LSU is led by LT Ciron Black who has started 41 games and was 2nd team SEC last season.  They are breaking in new LG and C.  Earning their first career starts last week were So Herbert at C who only saw limited OL action last season.  He was a 4* recruit rated #2 C by Rivals.  At LG So Dworaczyk has big shoes to fill stepping in for departed All American Herman Johnson.  Dworaczyk was also a 4* recruit who was once Louisiania's top OL prospect.  RT and RG spots are held down by Jr and Sr returning starters.  The starting OL does have a combined 84 starts, but nearly 50% of those are Black's.  The line averages 299 lbs.
 
QBs
Larry Smith is only making his 3rd career start, but LSU's Jordan Jefferson will only be making just his 4th and his first at home.  Both QBs are considered an upgrade to units that struggled last season.  Jefferson started at Arkansas last year and had a rough day, but he had a great Peach Bowl performance.  Jefferson is the youngest starting QB in the SEC.  Smith is 2-0 as a starter for Vanderbilt, but this is his first true road test.
 
Miles stated he intended to get true Fr Russell Shepard 10-12 plays last week, but was unable to.  He hoped situations arise this week to play the highly touted QB which might play various positions.
 
WRs / TEs
One of the most notable edges in the game goes to the LSU WR unit consisting of NFL prospect and 1st team SEC Brandon LaFell plus Terrance Toliver who lit up Washington.  Joining the Tigers this season is Rivals' #1 WR and 5* recruit Rueben Randle.  Randle only played in a handful of plays last week, Tiger fans are looking for him to have a bigger impact.  One time WR and current NCAA 100m champ Trindon Holiday has been moved to RB, but could line up at WR.  Tigers may also be looking to get the nation's top dual-threat Fr QB Russell Shepard some time on the field, possibly at receiver.  It is a unit with great size, compared to the smaller Vanderbilt group that Coach Johnson has said won't be confused for basketball players.  We are pretty comfortable with our starting CBs, but these LSU receivers are a tough test for sure.
 
For Vanderbilt it is a mostly unproven and underwhelming unit compared to what LSU fields.  While the group will likely turn out to be adequate to good, there does not appear to be a game changing receiver in the group or somebody the offense can lean on.  One of the more interesting developements over the summer was moving TE Justin Green to WR where he will create match-up problems due to his combination of size and speed.  Green caught a 46y TD last week.  
 
Vanderbilt does possess a fine duo at TE in Barden and Monahan.  TE looks to continue being a key position in the Vandy passing game.  LSU does have All SEC Richard Dickson as well as some highly rated depth, but this would be one area Vandy has a potential edge.
 
RBs
LSU fields an extremely experienced and talented RB unit.  Seniors Charles Scott and Keiland Williams have been playing since their true Fr seasons.  Scott was a 1st Team All SEC player last year.  Jr Richard Murphy is a very versitle and talented player who could have a bigger role this season.  Either of those 3 RBs could start for many many other teams around the country.  In the offseason Trindon Holliday was moved from WR to RB.  Holiday has always been a return specialist, but LSU wants to find more ways for him to contribute on offense.
 
The biggest thing to happen to Vanderbilt this offseason was the arrival of 3 very talented true Fr RBs Zac Stacy, Warren Norman and Wesley Tate.  Stacy and Norman have had an immediate impact both rushing for 100+ yards last week.  Sr RB Jared Hawkins is likely out again this week as he is still dealing with a lingering sore foot issue.
 
Back Seven
While some might think LSU has a clear edge here, I'm going to call them even or perhaps slight edge Vandy.
 
LB
Vanderbilt's LB unit is led by 08 2nd team SEC Sr Patrick Benoist on weak side.  Soph Chris Marve made All Freshman team in 2008 and has already made his mark this season with 2 forced fumbles and a sack vs W Carolina.  Benoist and Marve were #1 and #2 tacklers last season.  Brett Trice earned his first career start last week at SLB.  2 seasons ago Trice was a safety, but has been impressive in the move to LB.  2008 starter Jr Stokes along with Jr Campbell and rFr Strong provide good depth.
 
LSU moves in 08 13 game starter at SS Harry Coleman to Sam LB this season.  Coleman was the teams #1 tackler a year ago.  The #2 and #3 tacklers were MLB Sheppard and Will LB Riley.  Riley was a finalist for the Butkis award and DEF MVP of the Peach Bowl.  Sheppard can play either Sam or MLB and has played in every game the last 2 years earning 5 starts last year.  Providing depth is Jacob Cutrera who ran an INT in for TD vs UW last week.  Coleman, Riley and Cutrera all finished with 5 tkls last week, Riley forced a fumble.  LSU's depth chart only shows one other LB on the 2-deep, So Ryan Baker.
 
DB
In the secondary Vanderbilt doesn't have the depth that LSU does, but the starting group is just as good as anything LSU fields.  VU's Myron Lewis and LSU's Patrick Patterson have both been named to preseason 1st team All American lists this year.  Patterson led LSU in tackles vs UW and had 2 pbus and a fum recovery.  Lewis registered 5 picks and 6 pbu last season and already has 3 pbu this year.  
 
Vanderbilt has a new starting CB in So Casey Hayward who has been described as a "ball hawk" at times this offseason.  He performed well in his first start with 2 pbu.  At LSU's other CB spot is Sr Chris Hawkins and his 39 career games.  Hawkins was a reserve in 2007, but earned a starting spot with a terrific 2008 offseason.
 
Both teams are breaking in new SS.  Last week LSU is went with versatile Danny McCray who played in 12 games, started 8 last season.  He can play nickle, safety, and some LB.  Last week marked the 40th game he has played at LSU.  One LSU news source reported that Brandon Taylor could start at SS this week.  He is a So who played in all 13 games last year as a true Fr.  Vanderbilt has So Sean Richardson who played in every game last year as a true Fr and 2nd string SS.  Richardson was tied for 2nd last week with 4 tackles.
 
LSU is really high on what Jr Chad Jones can do this year at FS under John Chavis.  Jones was a 2007 Fr All American and has played in every game of his Tiger career with 6 starts.  Jones was also an important contributor to LSU's Championship baseball team this year.  Vanderbilt returns Sr leader Ryan Hamilton who was 3rd on the team recording 104 tkls last season.  Hamilton has started 35 consecutive games and provided several key plays over his career.
 
Injury of note - Fr DB Eric Samuels sprained his ankle returning a INT last week and goes into LSU questionable.  Vanderbilt is thin in the secondary with 2-3 true or redshirt Fr in the 2-deep.
 
Specialists
Both teams are replacing not just their kickers, but their all time leading scorers.  LSU is in better position with Jr Jasper who has handled kickoffs the last 2 years and has seen spot duty on FGs and extra points.  Jasper hit a 24y FG and 4 extra points last week.  Vanderbilt is breaking in a rFr kicker Ryan Folwer who missed 2 of 3 attempts in his first game action.  This is a big concern playing at Death Valley Saturday night.  Vanderbilt does return terrific punter Brett Upson.  LSU has a new punter who averaged 32y on 4 kicks last week.  Neither team had any punt or kick returns of note last week, yet both possess dangerous return men - namely Holiday for LSU and Graham for Vanderbilt.
 
Conclusion:
 
This summer I had labeled the LSU game as one of three unwinnable games this season.  I can't help but think now the slim possibility of an upset exists here, although I'm not willing to venture out on that limb.  LSU likely will not score a bunch of points, I'd be shocked if they do.  It will be absolutely necessary for the defense to limit their scoring opportunities and put the offense in good positions.  Then obviously the key is how many can we score?  With the new offense, QB light on experience and FG kicking woes from last week coupled with playing the game in Death Valley at night it is hard to be very confident at what might happen.  Thinking positively, the offense has worked throughout the offseason on hand signals to counter loud playing environments.  If Smith is efficient and we have some success running the ball, limit mistakes and create some turnovers on defense the upset will be on the table.  The point spread is generous and similar to historic averages, but this is a improved Vanderbilt team.  It would seem Vanderbilt would make a good play plus the points with a look to the under as well.  If you are feeling especially frisky the outright upset sounds alot more realistic than ever before in recent years.
 
Go Commodores!!

September 8, 2009

Week 1 - Western Carolina at Vanderbilt, Recap
By: Scott Kennedy

Late last week:

Fr RB Zac Stacy was announced as the starter due to Jared Hawkins sore foot leading to several missed practices.  Hawkins did not dress for the game, hopes are with additional time to rest his foot he can get some practices in this week to play for LSU (although Johnson tabbed him as "doubtful").

Also, as expected, Johnson announced that Ryan Fowler would handle place kicking and Brett Upson would focus on punts.

Game notes:
Western Carolina was an extremely overmatched opponent allowing Vanderbilt to establish many firsts and break several records.  They are:

September 3, 2009

Week 1 - Western Carolina at Vanderbilt, 7:30 EST
By: Scott Kennedy

TV: Comcast Sports South (CSS), ESPN GamePlan (Directv 791), ESPN360.com
Radio: 104.5 The Zone, XM 198
 
Line: Vanderbilt -35
 
Vanderbilt opens it's 120th season of organized football and look to win their 3rd straight season opener.  This season, the Commodores are seeking it's first consecutive bowl trips ever.  
 
Vanderbilt - Western Carolina history:
 
Prior to coming to Vanderbilt while at Furman Coach Johnson was 6-2 vs W Carolina, including wins in the final 4 meetings.  The Catamounts are led by second year coach Dennis Wagner.  In his first season, W Carolina went 1-7 in conference play and 3-9 overall including a 0-69 result vs Florida State. They are 0-12 in their history vs SEC teams.  This season Phil Steele has them pegged to finish last in the strong Southern Conference (home to App St, Wofford, Elon, Ga Southern, Furman).
 
Vanderbilt was once a member of the Southern Conference from 1894-1932 before joining the SEC.  Vanderbilt has a 7-0 record vs So Conference members since 1979.
 
Starting QB:
Soph Larry Smith, who started the Music City Bowl, was named the starter at Coach Johnson's press conference earlier this week.  Mackenzie Adams and Smith were locked in a tight battle throughout the offseaon.  Coach Johnson recalling Smith's play in 2008 cited the confidence he instilled in the coaches, the players and Smith himself.  
 
Starting WRs:
Despite missing alot of practice time this August with nagging injuries, WR John Cole is scheduled to start along with Alex Washington and Udom Umoh.  But remember receivers are supposed to rotate often.
 
RBs:
When Johnson was asked if he thought Jared Hawkins would play this week, coach responded by saying "I hope so...it's going to be a question mark".  Even at this point on Thursday it is uncertain how much Hawkins can play Saturday.  When trying to determine who might start in Hawkins' absence, Johnson said it would mostly be mental, coming down to who is best prepared.  It is not out of the question to see Fr Zac Stacy get the start, but several RBs will see action regardless.
 
Place kicking:
Whether Fowler or Upson will handle FGs has not been determined yet.  Johnson just keeps saying they both are capable of the job.  Maybe he wants to see how Fowler kicks in an actual game before committing to him, but I would think the intention is to still have Fowler handle most, if not all, the place kicking so Upson can focus on punting.
 
No other real surprises were announced or found on the depth chart.  See it here:
http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/vand/sports/m-footbl/auto_pdf/083109vudepth2.pdf

KD1 Patch:
In memory of Kwane Doster, the team leadership council has voted that DE Broderick Stewart will wear the KD1 Patch on the front of his #90 jersey.  Calling it "a huge honor", Stewart is the 3rd Commodore to wear the patch since 2006.  The patch is given to the player who most exemplifies the standards and commitment Doster brought to the program.  Doster was killed at the age of 21 in his hometown of Tampa December 2004.
 
 

August 30, 2009

By: Scott Kennedy

Last week began with focus turning towards coaches figuring out starting and reserve positions.  It's an important time to narrow down the depth chart and starting spots because as gameplanning begins certain players are going to need more practice and reps.  The members of the scout team need to be determined as well.  Coach Johnson has still kept most of that information to himself, but privately the coaches likely have an idea who the guys are going to be.  As of Sunday night there was no official depth chart, but one will likely be released in the coming days.
 
Here are some of the latest things from the papers and fan sites last week, some of it is reiteration and confirmation of things previously discussed:
 
DT:
Last season Vandy only had a 3 man DT rotation with Billinger, Greenstone and Smotherman seeing exclusive action on interior DL.  The great news is that each of them returns, even better 3 rFr are ready to work into a rotation allowing the starters to stay fresh and deal with any injuries that might arise.  While everyone wants playing time, Smotherman knows the importance of having depth and a good rotation saying he is excited about the DT depth allowing for some rest and be fresh in games.
 
DE:
It appeared the DE depth took another hit early last week.  With Steven Stone out several weeks with a broken bone in his foot, several quality players were being counted on to step up and fill in.  One of those was Theron Kadri, but prior to Tuesday's practice Kadri told Coach Johnson his decision to leave the team.  What once looked like there were plenty of DEs to spare now all of a sudden looked a little thin with only 3 healthy players left who saw action in 2008 (Broderick Stewart, Tim Fugger, Teriall Brannon) plus 08 scout team member Johnell Thomas who is expected to have meaningful impact this year.  Less familiar, but promising, players rFr Josh Jelesky and true Fr Walker May were thrust up the depth chart.
 
Things changed again, this time for the better as Kadri asked Johnson Friday to rejoin the team.  Kadri addressed the team Saturday where he was welcomed back.  Exact details were never given about Kadri's decision to leave, just family and personal issues.  It was conversations with family and past and current VU players that convinced him to return.
 
It should be emphasized, Vanderbilt is the only team in the SEC with back-to-back 30 sack seasons and last year their 30 sacks and 20 INTs (30 TOs total) was a feat only accomplished by one other SEC team, Florida.  This team should continue to lead and win with defense and it starts with the DL.
 
And it is really about speed.  DL coach Rick Logo stresses beating the OL with their quickness and foot speed rather than strength.  Defensive speed has been an emphasis for Johnson a few years now in recruiting, often looking for safeties to play LB and LBs to play DE.  Broderick Stewart's nickname is "razor" due to his weight.  He is listed at 230 pounds, well below average for the DE position, but Stewart knows speed is the key to his success.  As mentioned in an earlier blog, Stewart is in position to become the school's all time sack leader.  Likely starter at Stone's spot is Tim Fugger, an accomplished high school sprinter.  He is now up to 250 pounds now, but the quickness is still there.  Teriall Brannon's also possesses good speed.  Brannon recalls the words of Logo "Our ends can run, let our ends run".
 
LB:

LB Brent Trice has been impressive throughout spring and fall camp, so much so he is currently the #1 "Sam" strongside LB ahead of 08 starter John Stokes.  Stokes will likely see the field plenty this season as coaches will find ways to get him on the field.  Patrick Benoist and Chris Marve remain locked in at their starting LB spots.  When asked about having Benoist and Marve together "if that is as sound as you can be", Johnson responded with a smile "yeah, I'm going to enjoy having them out there"  He went on to say "kind of guys you really like...had great camps...just what you'd expect out of two guys who really played well last year and want to play better this year".  Overall Jesse Johnson of VandySports.com called the LB position the most impressive unit of fall camp, ahead of DL and then OL 3rd.
 
Watch Chris Marve discuss one of the biggest plays of the 2008 season, the strip at Ole Miss.  In an earlier blog I mentioned how watching the play gave me chills.  That play was one of the absolutely critical moments in 2008.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xj293WTfefw

DB:
The starting secondary is in good hands with Lewis and Hayward at the two CB spots.  Hayward could really be a ball hawk this season and will fill Moore's vacated position very very well.  Jamie Graham is a great reserve who is plenty capable of starting, he will be the primary nickleback.  Ryan Hamilton is a leader and playmaker at safety along side new starter Sean Richardson.  While not incredibly deep, true Fr Eric Samuels and Eddie Foster have practiced well and are there at the CB spots and S Joel Caldwell is good when healthy along with Micah Powell who has had a good camp.  
 
OL:
C Vierling, LT Welch and RT Williams are set.  The guard positions are still a battle with Hensley, Lauer at RG and Custer, Fischer at LG.  As a Soph, Lauer was a 10 game starter at LT last year, but with Williams emergence it allowed 5th yr Sr Welch, who has NFL potential, to move to the all important LT spot.  Lauer has been left to compete at guard, a new position for him, up against 5th year Sr Hensley who played in every game, starting the last 7 at RG.  At LG Soph Fischer started the final 4 (7 total starts 08), but 5th yr Sr Ryan Custer has really come on this camp making for some great competition.  There is some good depth in the other 2nd and 3rd teamers too making up a very solid unit overall.  The starting 5 and top 7 really form a very good group, one the team can surely count on.
 
QB:
The race between Adams and Smith still appears to be tight, with neither really separating themselves a whole lot.  Many believe the coaches will give Smith the nod, it is mostly speculation as the practices haven't indicated too much and Coach Johnson never lets on to anything, although I would think the staff privately knows who the starter will be.  Largely the fans want Smith to be the starter because of his potential and upside.  We've seen what Adams can do over the years and he played a key role in last year's success.  But Adam's strength has seemed to be coming off the bench and his weakness consistency.  With the snaps being split pretty evenly throughout camp, it is time to give one guy more reps for their own benefit, but also the team's.  That decision should come any moment now, but as of Sunday night I had not heard of anything stated publicly.
 
RB:
Some big news this week was that Jared Hawkins returned to practice Monday and worked with the first team.  It is noteworthy that Hawkins participated 3 consecutive days after missing a very large part of camp prior.  Hawkins also spoke about the RB position and his role:  "from what I understand I'm still starting".  Acknowledging the other RBs Hawkins said "a bunch of people are going to see some reps, but it's my position.  And it's my position to lose and I'm not going to let that happen".  Hawkins is of course a team leader and an experienced veteran.  I don't know if all the talk about the freshman got to him or if they've passed him by, but he certainly feels the job is his.  I heard Bill King on rivals radio last week say Hawkins wasn't an SEC type back.  Opinions are opinions, but Hawkins could use some things this off-season as great motivation for his final season.  If Hawkins is healthy and has somewhat of a chip on his shoulder it will only benefit the team.
 
Of the freshmen, Zac Stacy has been the most consistent and electrifying, but all 3 have had very good camps. One of them will likely redshirt, but could still travel with the team and gain experience that goes with travel, game prep, etc.  Every Vanderbilt fan is extremely excited to see what these young RBs can do for the offense in game action, especially Stacy.  Between Hawkins and the freshmen, some of the older guys are getting overlooked, like Doster, Reeves and Miller, but they will be in the mix as well.  At any rate, production from the RB position is going to take a huge jump this year.
 
WR:
Vandy will be in 3 WR sets most of the time and while some have speculated who the 3 starters or the top 3 are, there hasn't been too much separation or standouts.  The receivers will rotate frequently with Alex Washington, Udom Umoh, Akeem Dunham, John Cole, Tray Herndon, Turner Wimberly and converted TE Justin Green.  There are a couple younger receivers who could be in the mix as well.  As for a go-to-guy, or top playmaking WR - one has yet to emerge, and it might stay that way depending how things go.  The TEs Barden and Monahan will be top targets and could catch alot of balls this year.
 
ST:
Not much needs to be said here with Upson handling the punting duties.  He has continued to work on refining his already great angle kicks.  There hasn't been any decision on Fowler or Upson to kick FGs, both seem up to the task.  I haven't discussed the return game as there seems to be too many different players in the mix to know who will emerge there.  Both DJ Moore and Sean Walker need to be replaced.  CB and sometimes WR Jamie Graham will handle some returns and should provide some good returns this season.  WR Alex Washington and some of the RBs may also return kicks as well.  WR John Cole could have a role here too, but with injuries throughout camp it is hard to say for sure.
 
 
Daily notes:
 
Monday 8/24 - RB Jared Hawkins and Fr DB Trey Wilson returned practiced.  It was Wilson's his first action of fall camp due to a toe injury suffered before practices started.  WR John Cole did some light work and Colt Nichter was out there as well, but not fully participating.
 
Tuesday 8/25 - WR John Cole was more involved today and Nichter was practicing lightly for the second day.  Nichter had suffered a scary looking injury in the 8/15 scrimmage so his return is really nice.  About Cole, later in the week Coach Johnson stated he was happy with how he has been practicing.  Cole's absence from practice this August really hurt as he is expected to be a big contributor at WR.  Chris Marve missed most practice (ankle).
 
Wednesday 8/26 - Classes start requiring a change from the "eat, sleep and drink football" as Patrick Benoist put it to the more balanced approach of class in the morning/early afternoon to football in late afternoon.  S Ryan Hamilton missed (illness), Jamie Graham worked with the starters in his place.
 
While there may have been signs of Western Carolina preparation earlier in the week Wednesday's practice had several players wearing red jerseys as members of a scout team showing work has officially started for W Carolina rather than "Vanderbilt against Vanderbilt" as Johnson put it.
 
Thursday 8/27 - after 3 consecutive practices, Hawkins rested Thursday.  Hamilton was out for the second day.  After practicing Wednesday, Marve sat out today with sore ankle.  OL Reilly Lauer also missed with sore elbow having his arm in a sling, although it is not believed to be very serious.  DT Smotherman missed due to a classroom conflict which will continue throughout the season.
 
Friday 8/28 - Nothing to report
 
Saturday 8/29 - The official end of preseason camp.  Coach Johnson was also considering it their bye week.  With 12 straight games and no bye on the horizon, Johnson was looking to have a light, short practice on Saturday morning.  He said "this is the only one (off week) we have".
 
Jamie Graham rejoined the offense for goal line situations Saturday.  Chris Marve practiced while Hawkins and Lauer remained out.
 
Players had meetings, but no practice Sunday and Monday as the team heads into gameweek.
 
Swine Flu / H1N1

The nation is bracing for the potential of a large outbreak this fall and it could effect football teams across the country as well.  Tulane, Duke, TCU and Alabama have reported cases to football players this August with symptoms that could be H1N1.  GT was in the headlines also due to an outbreak at their school.  While it hasn't had an impact on the Vanderbilt football team to date, from Tuesday to Thursday last week VU students with flu symptoms went from 28 to 52, with 10 cases confirmed as H1N1.  This will be something to monitor not only in our own lives and families, but potentially also with our football teams this season.
 
Sunday 8/30 Coach Johnson call-in radio show
I only caught the second half of the first call-in show of the season.  I'll hit on a few things Coach Johnson discussed:

August 24, 2009

Monday 8/17 - Sunday 8/23 Recap
By: Scott Kennedy

 
Rather than a somewhat detailed day-by-day summery, for this week I will only touch on some things of note from the practices as well as some personnel issues and other stories.
 
The no-huddle offense
Some more detail is coming out on the 2009 offensive attack.  And it appears this year's no-huddle attack won't merely be a wrinkle sprinkled in games, but instead an offense the team is committed to it and has been preparing for all offseason.  And it is really a blend of other styles run by different teams.  It will mostly be a shotgun attack that hopes to have a good run-pass balance where the offense wants to dictate the tempo to the defense, prevent their substitutions, create confusion and wear them down.
 
QB Larry Smith calls it "a step slightly below the two-minute offense".  OT James Williams said "pretty sure we won't huddle more than 10 to 15 times a game."  Williams also commented the OL's better physical condition this season due to the new system.  C Vierling added "We're in the best shape this team has ever been in".  OL Coach Robbie Caldwell and Strength and Conditioning Coach John Sisk have both indicated the OL was ahead of previous editions in terms of conditioning entering fall camp.
 
Echoing an earlier comment this spring by Coach Johnson on receiver rotation, WR Alex Washington says "With our offense, with the way we move so fast, you need at least six or seven receivers to be productive throughout the game because we're so up-tempo,"
 
The results are being seen.  The offense has been more successful moving the ball and scoring the points this camp as the defense tires.
 
Although VU has worked with some no huddle before, following the Music City Bowl the team decided to go primarily no-huddle and have studied teams such as West Virginia, Rice and Tulsa.  Coach Johnson was impressed with Rice's offense in their meeting last season.
 
More two-a-days
Following Saturday's scrimmage and Sunday's off day, the team held their second two-a-day session of camp on Monday 8/17 which didn't involve much contact.
 
The team practiced Wednesday morning as the first part of another scheduled two practice session, but instead of returning for an evening practice the team went to the theater, taking the night off to see "The Goods, Live Hard, Sell Hard".  It was somewhat of a planned event by the coaching staff, but a surprise to the players.  Johnson said "We talked to the captains about that earlier in the year. I just wanted to make sure we were getting things done. We were well ahead on our insertion schedule, so we wanted to back off a little bit, save our legs and get them a little fresher."
 
Monday's Poor showing
The defense has had it's moments so far this camp, but overall the offense has performed well and provided some proof for the better production people are hoping for this season.  However, Monday's practice was a clunker with several dropped balls, off target passes, etc...their worst showing of camp.  OC Ted Cain was so upset during the 11-on-11 performance he made the offense do push-ups.  The defense was focusing on it's blitzing and dominated the offense.
 
Monday's poor performance was followed up by a much better practice Tuesday as were the others that followed this week.  So here is to hoping Monday was a one-off throw away day.
 
Back in full pads for Thursday
The only day this week the team was in full pads leading up to Saturday's scrimmage was Thursday.  Red zone situations was a focal point.  Vanderbilt's red zone offense was 3rd best in the SEC coming in at 88.6% behind only Florida and LSU.
 
Saturday 8/22 Scrimmage
This 90 minute scrimmage inside Vanderbilt Stadium with officials was the second one of camp, but this one was much different than the first.  Due to mounting injuries, Coach Johnson limited contact today, which did contribute to a lower intensity level.  It was a "thud" practice where the players hit, but did not tackle.  Johnson explained "Anytime you tell them to go full speed but don't tackle...it's going to be slower than you'd like".  He added "I thought we got out what we wanted out of practice".  Only the 3rd teamers comprised of newcomers and younger players went full contact late in the scrimmage.
 
Last Saturday's event was a great one for the offense, but this time around the defense controlled the action.  The QBs didn't have much time and the RBs had much room as the D stepped up their play.  Several sacks and tackles for loss along with 2 INTs highlighted the day.  S Hamilton grabbed one pick and the other of a tip was caught by CB Hayward, both were thrown by Larry Smith.
 
Punting and FG kicking both looked very good as they have throughout camp.  P Brett Upson continues to kick FGs as well as Ryan Fowler, but the intention is still to have Fowler handle all the place kicking duties.  Some have speculated that Upson might kick longer FGs, those beyond the 40-45 yard range.
 
It seemed to mostly be a situational scrimmage where the team worked on short yardage, red zone offense, offense working in shadow of their own end zone and alot of special teams work.  RB Jeremaine Doster was singled out in one report for some of his runs.
 
After taking Sunday off, the team returns to practice this Monday.
 
Graham practices on offense for first time
Monday's practice marked the first time this camp where CB Jamie Graham practiced at receiver.  Graham of course was a big contributor on offense last season. He'll be a very important defender this season, but coaches have long planned for him to play some kind of role in the offense as well.  Coach Johnson speaking about Jamie moving back to defense for this season and then to offense for this practice had this to say „Jamie is sort of a natural.  He remembered a lot even in the nickel position. He went back to wide receiver and he looked really good doing that. He‚s just one of those guys who‚s a ball player.‰  He continued getting some reps with the receivers Tuesday as well.  Graham is also a leading candidate in the mix to handle kick and punt return duties.  Due to a sore leg Graham did miss the 8/22 scrimmage.
 
Player notes and injuries

QB Jared Funk sprained his elbow in Saturday's scrimmage and did not throw for a couple of practices.  True Fr Charlie Goro's reps have since increased.  Goro was a Parade All-American and has looked solid this camp, still Goro will likely redshirt this season.
 
RB Jared Hawkins finally returned to practice Monday 8/17 after missing over a week resting a pulled hamstring.  Hawkins is coming back from offseason foot surgery that kept him out of the spring.  It was a sore foot that put Hawkins back on the sidelines for Friday's practice.  He remained out for the 8/22 scrimmage.  In total, Hawkins has only practice probably 2 days this camp which has given time to the young RBs who have certainly impressed, but you'd like a leader like Hawkins to be ready for the season as well.
 
DT Greg Billinger and S Joel Caldwell returned to action Monday after missing last week's big scrimmage.  Caldwell was however held out of the 8/22 Saturday scrimmage.
 
DE Steven Stone broke a bone in his right foot at Monday's 8/17 practice which will have him out 6 weeks.  Coaches are not planning for his return before October.  In 13 starts last season Stone was tied with two other players for the team lead in sacks (5).  He has started 27 consecutive games, playing in 37 in his 3 year career.  While his importance on the field is vast, off the field he is a highly accomplished student currently working on his master's degree and is a four time All-SEC Academic Honor Roll recipient.  
 
The solid depth on DL is being tested as of late.  Stone's injury will open the door for a number of players, those close to the program expect either rSo Tim Fugger or Jr Theron Kadri to fill in for Stone as both are having good camps.  The DE depth is strong beyond Fugger and Kadri with rFr Johnell Thomas who was awarded Defensive Scout of the Year along with Jr Teriall Brannon who earned his first start in last year's bowl and Coach Johnson has been praising him publicly following his effort this spring.  While it will be exciting to see these players contribute, obviously we all wish it was in a rotation with Stone and not because of Stone's injury.
 
Other injuries to the DL include DT Colt Nichter (badly sprained ankle/foot) and DE Broderick Stewart was being held out as a precaution due to a helmet-to-helmet hit suffered late last week.  Stewart is 6 sacks short of breaking the school record.  He did return for Saturday's scrimmage.
 
WR John Cole has already missed considerable time with a hamstring injury.  He did return last week, but now is out again with a sprained right ankle suffered Monday 8/17 and is wearing a boot.  Coach Johnson had said when camp began that about them having alot of expectations and looking for him to be a big contributor.  Unfortunately Cole hasn't gotten much practice time so far.  Coach Johnson said "We're going to call him Lucky".  After Monday's injury, Cole missed the entire week including Saturday's scrimmage.
 
LB John Stokes wore a protective brace on his wrist at Tuesday and Wednesday's practice.  Speaking of Stokes he recently was accepted to the Vanderbilt School of Medicine, one of eight out of a hundred applicants accepted before their junior year.  Coach Johnson said his letter of recommendation for Stokes was "the easiest I've ever had to write".
 
Tensions boiling over
There have been a couple scuffles the past week that made the papers.  One involving DE J Thomas and TE B Barden and another between OL Kyle Fischer and DL John Burrow.  There doesn't appear to be any hard feelings.  Thomas had this to say "It's all love, it's nothing personal.  The play before that I kind of messed up and was angry, so I came a little harder on the next play. I guess that ticked (Barden) off."  Fischer explained his tussle "Coach had preached before practice going hard today.  Me and (Burrow), who I was fighting with, we were both going hard and it got a little out of control."
 
Watch Lists
VU players named to 2009 award watch lists:
 
C Bradley Vierling - Rimington
LB Patrick Benoist - Lombardi
CB Myron Lewis - Nagurski
Lewis was also named preseason 1st team All-American by collegefootballnews.com.  CFN named fellow SEC East Sr from UK Trevard Lindley to their other 1st team CB spot and overall three of their four 1st and 2nd team selections were from the SEC.
 
Vanderbilt received 3 votes in the AP Preseason top 25 in the "others receiving votes" category.  In the previously released coaches poll Vanderbilt did not receive any votes.
 
As usual, I would like to thank the following for their practice coverage which contributes greatly to my blogs here:  Jeff Lockridge and Bryan Mullen of the Tennessean, David Boclair of the Nashville City Paper, Jesse Johnson of Vandysports.com, Joe Fisher's updates via 104.5 the zone, and to the contributors on VU's Official athletic site.

August 18, 2009

Wednesday 8/12 - Sunday 8/16 Recap
By: Scott Kennedy

 
8/12
Following camps first full contact scrimmage the team had their first of two 2-a-day practices Wednesday, but it was relatively light without much contact.  It was designed to be a lighter session to allow people to be rested for the upcoming Thursday scrimmage.  The only thing I really picked up on was the offense and defense working on some option game.  WRs Cole and Dunham returned while RB Hawkins and DB Wilson and S Caldwell continued to rest.  DT Billinger also sat out with a sore shoulder as did RB Stacy with a slight groin pull.  
 
Following the practice TE Austin Monahan said he and Brandon Barden can line up on LBs and "just toast them...I think we're the best TE combination in the nation right now."  Monahan also said he is stronger than he's ever been with new max on all his weights.
 
8/13
Thursday the team had it's second scrimmage, a 13 drive 54 play possession.  RB Hawkins (hamstring) was held out as was RB Jermaine Doster (ankle), Stacy was only used in a limited capacity at best while resting a groin pull.  It was an almost exclusive no-huddle scrimmage that was described as very active and physical.  A formation where a direct snap to the RB was also used and produced some big plays by RBs Reeves and Tate.  Coach Johnson didn't make too much of it saying it is just a different way of doing something they've done before with the QBs.  And the formation isn't called the Wildcat.  
 
The RBs continued to shine, in addition to good TD runs by Reeves (41y) and Tate (17y) on the 5th and 6th possessions. Fr RB Warren Norman later broke off a 25y scoring run.  Norman had 21y and 16y runs earlier.  The offense registered a total of 5 TDs on the evening, but they didn't exactly light up the night.  The D had their way the first 4 drives and 3 of the 5 TDs came late in the scrimmage and were all started deep in defensive territory.  Aside from the aforementioned Norman TD run, Walk-on DB, now playing at WR, Rich Tompkins caught a short TD pass from Jared Funk and TE Austin Monahan capped the late scoring with a 4y TD from Smith.  In a report on the VU athletic site LBs Trice, Campbell and Barnes, DBs Samuels and Foster along with DE Thomas and DT Burrow were all singled out for their defensive plays.
 
 
8/14
The most noteworthy story Friday's was a visit by school Chancellor Nicholas Zeppos to address the team.  He spoke of the pride the football team brought the school and alumni.  Application to Vanderbilt was up 16% to record levels last year, saying to Johnson, "you can take 8 percentage points of that."  He also said „I'm really proud of Bobby and the program he's built, and I have tremendous admiration for him.  I think it‚s the right guy at the right time, a coach‚s coach, good with the kids. I think there was also a collective sense from the whole university that this was somebody who really could be successful.‰  
 
Friday's practice was mostly uneventful.  RB Stacey was the only player to return as the others mentioned before continued to sit and now Fr S Jay Fullam is out also with torn ligaments in his left hand suffered Thursday.  Fullam will miss the start of the season and may redshirt.  He had been impressing and was one of the freshman expected to see playing time this season.
 
As a tie-in to the Chancellor's visit, here are some interesting facts about Vanderbilt's academic figures relating to their athletes and the football team specifically per the 2009 Media Guide:

August 12, 2009

By: Scott Kennedy

At the end of Monday's practice, Coach Johnson did officially announce that UConn WR transfer Terence Jeffers is academically ineligible.  Anyone who has been following Vanderbilt football this year knows it is a meaningful loss and reason for pause, although the receiving unit still looks very good and while Jeffers might have been their best weapon, there are still plenty of quality options remaining - they are just largely unproven options.  Johnson speculated that Jeffers may transfer elsewhere in an attempt to play stating he doesn't believe he is ready for the NFL.  Jeffers will not be enrolled at Vanderbilt going forward.
 
Other comments from the coaches:

Coach Johnson said that Fr CB Eric Samuels has caught his eye.  Johnson had previously stated that CB would be a position where freshmen could contribute this season.
 
I haven't read anything about the no-huddle offense that the team was working on in the spring so far until now.  Receiving coach Charlie Fisher stated he was happy with the development of the receiving unit in the fast-paced, no huddle offense.
 
TE, perhaps now full-time WR, Justin Green had been preparing for the switch to WR for a few months now and his receiving coach is pleased with his progress.  As I said earlier, he really brings some exciting things to the table at this new position.
 
8/10 - Practice Notes -
 
Players wore light pads with shorts for the second straight practice.
 
S Sean Richardson and OT Thomas Welch were held out of practice due to cramping and hydration issues.  The following players also missed practice again while healing/resting:  Jared Hawkins (precautionary/hammy), John Cole (hammy), Akeem Dunham (hammy) Udom Umoh (shoulder), Trey Wilson (foot).
 
The defense really shined today with several pass break-ups and back field penetration. CB Hayward grabbed another INT Samuels and Lewis registered one each as well.  LB John Stokes continues to impress.
 
The QBs were a little inconsistent with Adams perhaps looking the best, but both Smith and Funk improved as the evening went on.
 
Without RB Hawkins practicing it is hard to get a handle on what the RB position is going to look like.  Fr Zac Stacy seems to be most impressive.
 
After practice Johnson added the following:
 
On the appearance the defense was getting the better of the offense, "no, it's not fair...there's all kind of things you can't do right now [per ncaa rules] that would give them a better chance for success...it sort of makes the offense look bad, worse then they are".
 
About defensive front 7 quickness, said maybe this year's group is quicker when including some different players filling out the depth of the units.  He went on, "we feel good about their quickness, they can get off the ball and make some things happen, put pressure on people.  We also have some linebackers that do good on the zone-dogs and the blitzes so we have some people that can get in the backfield."
 
Speaking about Soph TE Brandon Barden adding 15 pounds to help with his blocking "it will, and I don't think he slowed down any either.  I think he handles the new weight very well and that just gives him the advantage to block better, but still be able to run the same kind of routes he did last year".  Coach is looking for more consistency and improved blocking out of the 2nd year starter.
 
Further about the TE position, "Austin (Monahan) is big in our plans...very good blocker, tough guy, made some big catches for us last year...we have big plans for Austin".
 
Additionally I wanted to include this quote going back to 8/9 Sunday night's practice Soph LB Chris Marve gave an interview in which he stated "there is no room for complacency, standing in the same position takes you down.  We need to get better, try and be the best we can be, the best in the SEC, the best in the country, we strive for nothing less."
 
8/11 Practice Notes (full pads) -
 
Looking forward to the full pads practice Johnson had this to say on Monday:  "We're going to play some football...be all out tackle to the ground football.  Early in the practice we'll have an inside drill and we'll ask everyone to stay up and not hit the ground, but when we go to scrimmage it's do all you can do to prevail."  "When you go full pads it gives you an opportunity to see exactly where you are".
 
It was with much anticipation I awaited Tuesday night's full pad contact practice which was accompanied by a steady drizzle.  Tuesday's practice concluded with a 30 minute scrimmage.  If the defense had been controlling more of the non-contact action, the offense got some revenge tonight, thanks to the offensive line.  The OL opened up nice holes for the RBs to exploit for big gainers throughout the night.  Tate had a 25y run, he later carried in for a short TD.  Stacy had a near 40y TD at the end of the night.  For all the offensive highlights, DT Smotherman, LB Trice and S Fullam did manage some good plays of their own.
 
Jared Hawkins sat out again reportedly due to cramping and soreness.  So it was the Fr RBs (Tate, Stacy, Norman), as the Nashville City Paper called it, "were in some ways the central figures to the practice"
 
C Bradley Vierling spoke highly of the young RBs calling them "awesome".  But veterans like Kennard Reeves, Gaston Miller and Jermaine Doster were also mixing it up well.  Vierling said their OL goals is to limit sacks and have "one legitimate 1000 yard rusher".
 
About the backs, Coach Johnson had this to say:  (The offensive line) had a good night, and (we) had some good runs...And the backs ran hard too. The (freshmen) have some get-up-and-go, but Kennard had one and Gaston‚s been playing good. So we feel like we‚re going to have a stable to choose from.‰
 
There was maybe just one highlight through the air, a Smith to TE Monahan pass and catch that went for about 30 yards vs the first team defense.  Smith (to Monahan) and Funk (to Herndon) each threw TDs
 
CB Casey Hayward continues to impress working as 1st team CB (another INT tonight).  In a post practice interview Monday he stated he would like to improve his tackling and being physical along with reading the QB.  Well at tonight's practice he got to put those words into action as he broke on the ball in front of TE/WR Green who is 50 pounds heavier for a pass deflection.  I think Casey is going to be a fine CB this season.
 
LT Welch and S Richardson returned to practice.  T Ryan Seymour (stomach illness) sat out as well as S Joey Caldwell (groin).  WRs Cole and Dunham continued to rest, DB Wilson also remained out.
 
 
Upcoming:
 
The first 2-a-day practice will take place on Wednesday 8/12 with 9:15am and 6:15pm practice sessions.  It is only one of two such multiple practice sessions this camp.  A full scrimmage is planned for Saturday 8/15.  I'll post next after the weekend with the latest.
 
 
Thanks to Chris Lee at Vandysports.com for his 8/11 coverage also David Boclair of the Nashville City Paper, the writers at the Tennessean and Jesse Johnson again for the 8/12 reports.  VU Official team site also provides great practice coverage.  

August 10, 2009

By: Scott Kennedy

Fall practice begins

Early last week Coach Johnson talked about his plan for the practices on Nashville's 104.5 Sports Zone interview.  Johnson explained they wanted to go fast from the start, saying they could "zip through" the installation of the offense because "we expect them to know it".  The majority of the players have been on campus most of the off season and therefore are in great shape and know the basics.  Johnson, once a big 2-a-day proponent, now says he favors one session type practices.  Vandy will only have two 2-a-day practices.  He says guys can go harder and more up tempo because they aren't just trying to survive out there as they often do during 2-a-days.  Players are fresher, more attentive and tend to learn better Johnson believes in the single session format.  In the same interview Johnson also spoke of WR John Cole as "looking great", "alot" of expectations and called him a "big contributor".  When asked about the 3 tr fr RBs (Wesley Tate, Zac Stacy, Warren Norman) Johnson had much praise for all 3.  There is alot of excitement on what the 3 new RB recruits can offer the Vandy offense.
 
Camp opened Friday 8/7.  Per NCAA rules players will not be in pads until Tuesday 8/11.  Most practices won't begin until 6pm and will run approximately 2 hours, but the days will be filled with meetings, film and meals.  Practices are closed to the public.  
 
Some personnel updates:

Out -

August 3, 2009

A Vandy Update
By: Scott Kennedy

Vanderbilt opens fall camp August 7th, first day in pads August 11th. My next blog will focus on those practices, but I wanted to tie up some loose ends in this week’s edition.

SEC Media Day Recap

I wrote my last blog during the SEC Media days and mentioned a few things I heard at the meetings, but I’ll go into more detail here. Vanderbilt was represented at the SEC Media Day by coach Bobby Johnson accompanied by C Bradley Vierling and CB Myron Lewis. Here are some statements of interest:

Comments by Coach Johnson:
• Said they tired to fix the ‘09 schedule last season when it was discovered they had no bye, but were unable to change the schedule in order to add a bye this season. Vanderbilt will be the only SEC team to play 12 straight games.
• QBs Adams, Smith and Funk all competing for the starting QB position going into fall camp.
• Talking of DL strength and depth, Johnson mentioned that last year’s starters would be pushed for playing time. He named Jr DE Teriall Brannon as having an “excellent spring” and “excited about potential contribution to team”. Brandon played in 12 games last season earning 1st career start in the bowl game.
• While identifying the OL as a strength, also said “we should be much better” this season.
• Stated great attendance in offseason voluntary workouts.
• Listed RB, WR and CB/Nickel where incoming Fr could contribute.
• When asked what one other player from the SEC he would love to coach, Johnson answered Julio Jones after saying the team needed a WR (Jeffers’ academic eligibility not known yet).
Comments by Bradley Vierling:
• Spoke extremely highly of OL coach Robbie Caldwell .
• “My goal is to go undefeated, that’s our team’s goal, one game at a time, one snap at a time, that’s what we are going for.”
• “We’re ready for this season coming up. We’re excited about it. We did big things last year and we’re going to do even better things this year”.
• On family type atmosphere among the coaches and the team “they (coaches) treat on each other like brothers...and that’s how we are as a team...”. “It’s absolutely a family atmosphere”.
• “...there’s Vanderbilt fans coming out of the woodwork everywhere, it’s amazing”
• “I don’t think people like to pick us for Homecoming anymore, because that just ticks us off”.
• About QB Larry Smith, “I’ve never been around a guy who’s been so calm in the huddle”.
Comments by Myron Lewis:
• Said defense is going to “be even better than last year”. “I believe so...certain”.
• WR Terrence Jeffers “is an amazing, amazing receiver”
• CB Casey Heyward is a “great player”
• Speaking of replacing Rashard Langford with Sean Richardson “it’s not going to be that hard...”.
• Looking forward to playing against Tim Tebow and taking on the best “who wouldn’t want to go up against him?”.
Vanderbilt was picked 5th in the SEC East by league writers and broadcasters. Myron Lewis was the only VU player making the preseason All SEC team coming in at 2nd team CB. Vanderbilt and South Carolina each just had 1 player selected, the fewest of any other team. Florida led the voting with 12 total players appearing on 1st and 2nd team lists.

Other news

Bobby Johnson appeared at Nashville Sports Council Football Luncheon with Tennessee coach Lane Kiffin last week. The only real thing of interest to come out of this was a statement about the implementation of no-huddle. Thanks to vucommodores.blogspot.com and Ryan Schultz for their coverage of the event.
"The no-huddle offense gives us an opportunity to do a lot of things, but the main thing you want to do is dictate tempo. Also a lot of times the defense may tip off what they are going to do. We had a down year on offense and we want to improve on that this year."
Most recently, Coach Johnson visited Chicago for Bears training camp. There are currently 5 Vanderbilt players on the Bear’s roster (Jay Cutler, Earl Bennett, Chris Williams, Hunter Hillenmeyer and 09 draft pick DJ Moore). Coach said “We’re all still Vanderbilt family”.

2009 Schedule and upset prediction

When I look at the schedule I think only 3 of the 12 are completely unwinnable (at LSU, Georgia, at Florida). I have them starting 3-1 with 6 wins being the most probable regular season outcome, finding where and when those other wins will come exactly is hard to say at this point, although I do have one I’ve been thinking about for a while now. I’ve had a certain game circled in my Phil Steele book since June, 10/3 Ole Miss at Vanderbilt. I am aware of last year’s game, I know the stats, I know the story (game highlights here if interested: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OEinYdxEs30, Chris Marve strip = chills). This season Vanderbilt finds themselves in a great situation to beat the Rebels for the 3rd year in a row.

What’s that? Revenge you say? Ask South Carolina how revenge is working out for them. But sure, let’s talk about that. The often overused angle, when is it legit when is it not, either way how do the teams perform? I looked back to all the SEC conference upsets this decade (isolated upset to wins by underdogs of 3.5 points or greater) and found there were 57 such “revenge” games where the teams play each other the following year. The team seeking revenge did win 34 of 57 the following year, 60%. But, when factoring the point spread the win w/ cover number falls to 26 of 57 for 45%. My point here is the whole equation of revenge isn’t an automatic and even when it does happen the games can be more competitive than the “experts” think. Revenge has seldom influenced me when breaking down games.

But Ole Miss is a preseason top 10 team, a predicted SEC West winner and potentially SEC Champ according to 1 voter at SEC Media Day, I must be crazy right? Allow me to explain.

This game is a huge sandwich for Ole Miss. They come in off an ESPN Thursday night trip to South Carolina and have Bama at home on deck. A Thursday night national TV spotlight game (last time on ESPN Thursday night was 2003) and a later game at home vs the probable #1 challenger for the West division, that arguably is their biggest game of the season. It can’t be overstated, the Bama-Ole Miss game this year is HUGE. For a team that isn’t used to expectations and hype, staying focused on Vanderbilt in the middle of these high profile games is going to be hard for the Rebels, even if they are thinking revenge. This is a flat spot for the Rebels.

Vanderbilt meanwhile will only be off a road trip to Rice and only have Army on deck. Now Vanderbilt can’t exactly take any game for granted, but Vandy’s 2009 squad is much stronger than both of those team’s current units. Contrast the physical and mental situation that Vanderbilt has here to what Ole Miss is up against.

The strength of the Miss D will go up against the strength of the Vandy O, DL vs OL. And Vandy will need that strong OL to deal with a very good Rebel front. The Ole Miss D will be a challenge for Vandy but, I’m taking a leap of faith that the offense will be markedly better this season. I do believe that spring practices can back that up, although I’ll be the first to say that is practice and not real game action.

The suspected weaker ‘09 Miss OL will be going up against a strong front 7 for Vandy. And I actually like the Vandy D vs Ole Miss O match-up all around. Field position could be key in this game and while both teams have solid special team units, Vanderbilt was #7 in ncaa last year at allowing only 4.17 yard per return. You have to feel good when the ball leaves Upson’s foot. In last year’s game Vandy downed 4 punts inside the 20. Hopefully the team will be ready for any funny business, you never know what Coach Nutt has up his sleeve. His trick plays are some of the best in terms of timeliness and execution.

I’m going out on a limb here and will predict Vanderbilt upsets Mississippi. Vanderbilt will need to pull an upset to reach bowl eligibility and this is a key home game in a great situation favoring them. At the very least I expect a competitive tight contest. Upsets happen, predicting when they’ll happen during the summer is alot harder, but that is one of the fun things about this time of the year. I’m not totally sold on the 2009 Ole Miss team as the top 10, Atlanta bound team others are seeing. I wouldn’t totally be surprised if they don’t come in here with a loss. I’m sure Rebel backers are figuring a nice 4-0 start before Bama. There is usually an overrated top 10 team that falls short of expectations (preseason rank, regular season record - #10 Auburn ‘08 5-7 , #5 Michigan ‘07 8-4, #3 Tennessee ‘05 5-6, Ohio St ‘04 7-5, #6 Auburn ‘03, #3 Florida St ‘01 7-4, #3 Alabama ‘00 3-8, #4 Arizona ‘99 6-6 , #8 Arizona St ‘98 5-6). A loss to Vanderbilt this year might put Ole Miss on that list. And remember, when coach Nutt’s teams have high expectations they typically don’t deliver. We’ll see if he can break that trend in his 2nd year at Mississippi.

Vanderbilt has won the last 2 meetings in Nashville and 3 of the last 4 overall. Not the same Ole Miss team you say? Not the same Vandy team I say! Last year was a fluke? That is what South Carolina said after 2007. Go Commodores!

I’ll leave you with these videos to get pumped up:

2008 highlights
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dofPdDTamOs

Game Day comes to town
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kIqhbDot4JE

Is there anything better than college football?

July 28, 2009

Breaking down the ‘Dores
By: Scott Kennedy

3 vs 4.5

3 was the 2008 win total for Vanderbilt and some weren’t bashful about backing the under. Yet Vanderbilt went on against the odds for an amazing 7-6 season. The incredible accomplishments by 2008 Commodores must be recited: their first 5-0 start since WWII, beat 3 ranked opponents (1st time sch history), place a top 25 AP ranking 4 weeks straight, achieve a .500 conference record (most conf wins since ‘92 league expansion), and not only make it to a bowl game (1st since 1982), but win their first postseason game since 1955 and finish with their first winning record in 26 years.

We don’t need to exactly itemize the great fortune Vanderbilt turned into wins last season, or the timely plays from an otherwise uninspiring offense, a defense who stepped up when it mattered most, the outstanding play by the special teams unit. But looking back on it all and turning focus forward, we know this team must improve if they hope to duplicate or improve upon last year’s record.

4.5 is the opening win total for this year’s team which tells a little about what the “experts” think about the 09 squad and that perhaps they feel last year was a fluke. I’m bullish on the over and the more I read about this year’s team the more I do think they can and will be a better than they were last year. A better team might not equate to a better record necessarily but a bowl game can be in the cards again.

Questions entering spring 2009:

Q. How to improve the offense?
A. Vanderbilt created some buzz this spring with word they were working with a no huddle offense to help solve their offensive woes from 2008. It isn’t totally clear the extent the no huddle will be run, but it will at least be a wrinkle that Vandy implements in their games. Center Bradley Vierling has stated the offense wants to set the pace of the game. Coach Johnson hopes it opens up what the offense can do while potentially confusing and tiring the defense.

The current offensive line seems well suited to run this style offense as they are generally more athletic than previous versions 2007-prior. The extent that Vandy runs the no huddle offense will also determine their receiver rotation. Coach Johnson has said that the no huddle will require them to have a “constant” receiver rotation rather than “the same 3 receivers playing all game”.

Q. Who will the starting QB be?
A. Perhaps the biggest question for them is what QB will be under center and are they capable of getting the job done. If the spring is any indication the answer to the later may be yes, the former is still to be determined. 3 QBs are strongly in the mix. Most sources make it out to be a battle between 5th yr Sr Mackenzie Adams and rSo Larry Smith, but coach Johnson has indicated that Jr Jared Funk is in consideration as well. All 3 QBs had good spring and the job is wide open heading into fall camp. Vanderbilt will work towards having 1 QB and will not try to go with a dual QB situation.

Q. Who will catch the ball?
A. It is a big question with the top 5 WRs gone from 08 (3 depart including DJ Moore, returning ball catchers Justin Wheeler ACL injury 3rd practice this spring and Jamie Graham moves to CB). Indicators point to a group with great potential in 09. The only familiar face at WR from last year is Udom Umoh who emerged in the bowl game. This spring was highlighted by some other WRs including the return of Alex Washington from injury. Washington had an excellent spring. Transfers Tray Herndon and Terence Jeffers were very involved in the passing game this spring. Jeffers “can be outstanding” according to an interview Johnson gave after the conclusion of spring ball and one report even stated some of Jeffers’ catches caused his teammates to “ooh and aah”. Jeffers has yet to be eligible for Vanderbilt, although a concern might not be a surprise yet. It was expected that he had to get some academic hours taken care which he is currently working on. Summer school ends August 8th and as long as Jeffers meets the academic requirements there is very good reason to be high on this group of receivers. John Cole and Turner Wimberly will also be contributors this season.

No doubt TE will be strong with SEC All Freshman TE Brandon Barden, Austin Monahan’s return from 08 injury (one report stated “glue like hands” in spring), along with rJr Justin Green who the staff likes his potential although he hasn’t yet been a major contributor. On TEs Johnson has said he “feels great about that position”.

I dare say that with adequate QB play, the receiving unit could actually end up being a team strength.

Q. Who will replace DJ Moore at CB, Vandy’s first All American in 11 years?
A. Myron Lewis is locked in at one corner spot while 2 players are competing for the open CB spot, Sophs Jamie Graham and Casey Hayward. They figure to get alot of action with QBs potentially staying away from Lewis more often than not. Graham moves over to defense after starting 9 on offense last season at 3 different positions (WR, RB, QB). Hayward was one of 3 true freshmen to play last season and he played in every game as nickel back and on also special teams. Both Graham and Hayward were impressive making several plays throughout the spring.

Q. Vanderbilt’s career leading scorer is gone, who will kick FGs?
A. Johnson has had alot of praise for the kickers competing for the job. rFr Ryan Fowler may end up with the job, but All SEC punter Sr Brett Upson has impressed trying out for kicker as well.

Team strengths:

OL:
Not many questions are being asked about the OL this season. In contrast to last year, there isn’t much concern on the offensive line as 7 return with 5+ starts including two 5th year seniors (Vierling and Welch each started all 13 in 08 and have played in 71 combined games) coupled with 2 other seniors (Hensley and Custer combined for 16 starts in 08 and played in a combined 67 games in their career). The youngest starter, Soph Kyle Fischer (7 start 08), has a chance to really be a great one. Vierling is an undisputed leader of the team. In 2008 his teammates elected him a co-captain before he ever started a game. Vierling’s leadership was key during a dark 4 game losing streak last season. He has been named to the 2009 Rimington award watch list. Coaches think he can really have a great season and possibly be the SEC’s best Center.

DL:
DL depth has come along way at Vandy. 3 returning starters are seniors, but there is some quality depth behind them. 10 of the teams 30 sacks in 08 came from DEs Steven Stone and Broderick Stewart who each had 5. DT Greg Billinger is poised to build on his strong 2008 season. Of the young DL, rFr DE Johnell Thomas was impressive this spring and appears ready to play and push to get on the field.

LB:
Sr Chris Benoist and So Chris Marve were 1, 2 in tackles last season and both earned post season honors. Benoist as 2nd Team SEC and Marve as All Freshman. Jr John Stokes also returns at SLB, but with Stokes sitting out this spring one time safety Sr Brent Trice took advantage of his opportunity, really impressed and will push for increased playing time and starts this season. If 5th year senior Brandon Bryant could return from 2007 leg injury it would further boost this quality unit.

DB:
While hard to call the 2009 Commodore 2ndary a strength after losing SS Rashard Langford (“the heart and soul of the team” according to one coach) and All American CB DJ Moore, however 2 of Vandy’s best players reside in the 2ndary in CB Myron Lewis and FS Ryan Hamilton. Hamilton and Lewis were 3, 4 in tackles. Lewis was just behind Moore in INTs (5) and PBU (6) and is ready to embrace the #1 corner spot this year. FS Hamilton had a break-through season last year which included snagging 3 INTs in the upset at Ole Miss - a game the school’s spring prospectus called “arguably the finest game ever by a Vanderbilt safety”. Hamilton also leads the team (nonkickers) with 34 career and 32 consecutive starts. CBs Hayward and Graham should perform well at CB this season. Replacing 4 years starting Langford is quite a challenge, the new starter there is yet to be determined.

P:
Brett Upson was MVP of the Music City Bowl and earned All SEC honors. On the year he pinned 21 or 68 punts inside the 20. He may expand his role to kicker as well this year with the graduation of Bryant Hahnfedlt.

I didn’t speak to the running game and RB situation because I simply have no idea what to expect from that unit.

Spring 2009 recap:

Vanderbilt ran 15 practices this spring over 3 weeks. Each week of practice concluded with a scrimmage with their final scrimmage being the Black and Gold scrimmage which is open to the public. Vanderbilt does not have a spring game per se as other schools do. Vanderbilt’s Black and Gold scrimmage was open to the public with about 1000 in attendance. This was the lowest among SEC schools with Alabama having the highest attendance at 84,050 and 4 schools had record turnouts (Auburn, Florida, Ole Miss, Miss St).

Some familiar and key players were held out or limited this spring while healing from either injuries and/or offseason surgery, they are: RB Jared Hawkins (10 starts 08), CB Myron Lewis (25 consecutive starts), LB John Stokes (10 starts 08), DE Broderick Stewart (11 starts 08), LB Brandon Bryant (played in 20 career games, out with inj since 07). Additionally for the final Black and Gold scrimmage DT TJ Greenstone (13 games 08), RB Jermaine Doster (suspended 08) and WR John Cole (working way back from inj in 08 opener) were held out.

Position changes - Jamie Graham played moves from offense where he played in 12 games last season to compete for the open CB spot. Also, rFr Ryan Seymour is switching from DL to OL.

Some highlights from the 3/15, 3/20, 3/21 and 3/28 scrimmages:

3/15 - 60 play, 10 possession scrimmage that included: QB Larry Smith 38y TD to WR Terence Jeffers, QB Jared Funk 8y TD to WR Turner Wimberly, RB Ryan Van Rensburg 2y TD run. The defense stepped up to stop a few other scoring threats. Johnson remarked “overall we improved as a team today”.

3/20 - 35 play scrimmage included: QB Mackenzie Adams 28y TD to TE Justin Green, QB Funk 8y TD to WR Winberly. RB Reeves was impressive and WR John Cole was looking good working back from season opening injury in 08.

3/21 - 80 play, 13 possession scrimmage which Johnson said the team showed continued progress. Each QB alternated drives. QB Smith opened and went 4-4 into the redzone before coaches stopped the drive. The 4th drive included a 68y TD from Adams to WR Udom Umoh which was called back by penalty. Umoh caught a 28y TD on the 5th drive from QB Funk. On the 11th drive CB Hayward returned an INT for TD 100 yards. The final drive of the day was capped with short TD run by Rensburg. The drives not called out featured defensive stops and punting situations.

3/28 - Black and Gold scrimmage, 75 plays. Heavy rain came through before game and the first couple drives were controlled by the defense with the offense not registering one FD on the first 3 possessions. Among those drives were 2 sacks and 2 other tackles for loss with CBs Hayward and Graham each making plays. On the 4th poss QB Funk hit WR Alex Washington for 75y TD. On the following drive Washington again found the end zone, this time on a 39y reverse. Next, QB Smith led his first TD drive hitting Herndon twice and connecting with Jeffers for a 36y highlight type TD. No scores took place over the next few possessions, but DT Billinger and CB Hayward made a couple good plays and Micah Powell got only INT of the day on a long pass from Adams. Adams later threw a couple to Umoh, one for a TD. Smith led the offense to 2 TDs on the final drives of the day, one a 30y TD to Umoh, the other drive was capped by TD run from Van Rensburg. Following the scrimmage Johnson said he was “very pleased”. Earlier in the week Johnson had said the team had a “very productive spring so far”.

Post spring:

Vanderbilt held their awards banquet for the 2008 team following the Black and Gold game. Of note winning most valuable awards: LB Patrick Benoist won the Captain’s Award, OT Thomas Welch MV OL, Jared Hawkins MV Off Back, Brandon Barden MV Receiver, Steven Stone MV DL, Chris Marve MV LB. DT TJ Greenstone won “lifter of year” and RB Chavez Scott and DE Johnell Thomas were Off and Def Scout POY respectively.

Also, the team has voted C Bradley Vierling, LB Patrick Benoist and FS Ryan Hamilton as the 2009 co-captains. They will serve as co-captains for the entire 2009 season.

About me:
My name is Scott Kennedy, a self proclaimed college football addict as friends and family would attest to. I always pull for the underdog and Vanderbilt’s 2008 season captivated me and coupled with the potential I see for the 2009 team has turned me into a fan. I should state that I am technically a fan of every team with a revolving door of “teams of interest” each season. Vanderbilt is one of my teams of interest this season and I am excited to cover the team for Phil Steele’s website. My blogs will typically be more factual/information based and less opinionated. My sources include official school athletic sites, local and national news coverage and other fan blogs. In my blogs I will summarize some things in one place which might provide helpful from a handicapping, fantasy or just general fan perspective. I do have one major prediction I will be making for the 2009 Vanderbilt team in my next blog...I’ll give you a hint...Flim Fam, Bim Bam beware.