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Questions & Answers With Phil Steele | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Q: HOW COULD YOU POSSIBLY PICK KENT ST TO WIN THE MAC EAST TITLE? THEY WERE A HORRIBLE TEAM LAST YEAR (1-10). A: In the magazine business it is always easier to make the safe call. Take a team that had 0 or just 1 win the previous year and pick them last. If they happen to have a good year the next season then applaud them in next years magazine. No team can seriously go from that type of record to a winning season, can they? Naturally I have all kinds of past evidence to show it is indeed possible. Let us take a look at a couple of other worst to firsts in recent years. Last year UCF was coming off a 0-11 season. It was a season where everything that could go wrong, went wrong. The Knights were moving up in class from the MAC to CUSA and were the consensus pick for LAST in the CUSA East. I am pleased to report that I had them ranked higher than all the other magazines rating them in 4th place (and boy did I catch it in the offseason from fans of Marshall and East Carolina who I picked below them!). I had actually expected a lot more from UCF in 2004 but due to a major string of injuries they went winless. I looked at their talent last year and my power ratings had them contending for the East title but I was GUN SHY after having picked them high the previous year. All UCF did last year was WIN THE EAST DIVISION and appear in the CUSA title game!! Also last year Penn St was coming off of consecutive BIG 10 RECORDS of 1-7 and 2-6. I was gun shy after having Penn St picked high in the Big 10 in 2004 but watching as they went thru a 2nd consecutive snake bit season with a lot of close losses. Naturally they simply WON the Big 10 titleand finished #3 in the country in 2005!! In 2004 UTEP was coming off of a 2-10 record in 2002 and a 2-11 record in 2003. Little was expected in 2004 but I had them my #3 most improved team in the NCAA and called for them to finish higher than anyone else at 5 in the 10 team WAC. They even exceeded my lofty expectations with a 6-2 WAC mark (2nd place) and made it to a bowl game. The 2003 Iowa St Cyclones went WINLESS in the Big 12 at 0-8 and were outscored in conference play by a combined 343-71!!! In 2004 I actually picked Iowa St to finish ahead of a Nebraska team that was 10-3 in 2003!!! When the dust cleared if Iowa St made a FG at the end of their season finale they would have won the Big 12 North OUTRIGHT and been in the Big 12 title game but the missed FG made them Big 12 North Co-Champs. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Phil, You always seem to have a good handle on the difference between true team strength and perceived strength as based on the opinions of sportswriters and fans. Louisville spent much of the last 8 years playing for attention on weeknights as they grew the program. Do you think the price a team pays for not being in the Saturday media discussion and highlights is worth the headlining during the week, especially when the all-important rankings come out? Thanks, David, I do feel a team receives more exposure on a single game night (like Thursday) than they do on a Saturday when they are competing with numerous other games that are on TV. I think Louisville’s close loss at Miami on a Thursday two years ago did a lot for the program. As a football fan, I would probably like the colleges to stay away from Fridays (high school) and Sundays (NFL) but the midweek games are a positive for conferences competing for national attention and it does not hurt but probably helps the team in the Polls. Thanks for writing, | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Phil, I'm wondering why you said Tennessee would be one of the most improved teams in the country? We still have Phillip Fulmer playing "not to lose" and a less than 50% success rate over the past 6 years against ranked teams. AsTommy Tuberville at Auburn recently said, "We hire teachers for coaches and don't depend totally on talent." That had to be aimed directly at Phillip Fulmer who "out personneled" everyone during the 90’s and has fallen flat on his face after the SEC caught up to his talent level. He can't coach or teach. I just can't see that much changing this year with the exception of beating Vanderbilt. Thanks, David, I know that Vols fans are down on them after last years troubling year but Tennessee has won or shared the SEC East title in 5 of the last 9 years (2 of the last 3!!). Last year I felt EVERYONE had Tennessee overrated heading into the year as they were pegged by everyone (except me) to finish first in the East and in the top 5 in the country. I had them 3rd in the East and had Georgia winning the division. Last year's team was overrated as they only outgained SEC foes by 14 ypg in 2004 (more indicative of a 4-4 SEC team) and yet finished 7-1. The 2006 squad is exactly the opposite as they are underrated. The 2005 Vols outgained SEC foes by 29 ypg (better than 2004) but finished just 3-5 in the SEC. Disappointing teams turn into surprise teams many times the next year. Let me give you two examples: In 2003, Auburn was the hot pick to finish unbeaten and contend for the national title as they were every magazines pick (except for mine) to win the SEC West and were ranked in the Top 7 by most (I had them #14, lower than every other sources and I pegged LSU for the SEC West title). Auburn lost FIVE games that year. In 2004 NOT A SINGLE PUBLICATION picked them to win the West but they rebounded to go 13-0 and finished #2 in the final polls. In 2004, almost everyone (including myself) thought West Virginia had the talent and schedule to run the table. They ended up losing 4 games. The next year (2005) not a single source had them in their Top 25 at the start of the year (12 sources monitored by preseasonstassen.com). WV went 11-1 and won the Sugar Bowl. This year my magazine is the only magazine to pick Tennessee #1 in the East with the others are generally picking them #3 and one even at #4. I like the overall talent on this team and the offense should be vastly improved for a couple of reasons. Last year they had two QB's which means split snaps and a divided team. This year it is Eric Ainge who should be the most improved QB in the country. He took charge of the team this spring and will get almost all the snaps with the #1's. He also has a new offensive coordinator in David Cutcliffe who is great at molding QB's. The Vols have the talent to be Top 15 on defense as well. Last year they had to face Florida, LSU, Alabama and Notre Dame all on the road. This year, the only two ranked teams to be played on the road are Arkansas (only ranked by me at this point) and Georgia. Another main reason for picking them to win the SEC East is that both Georgia and Florida have to face Auburn (I feel the most talented team in the SEC) ON THE ROAD and Tennessee avoids playing the Tigers. Add it all up and I feel last years disappointing team will turn into a surprise team for this year. Thanks for writing, | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Phil, Yeah... I got a question for you. When are you gonna get your head out of your ass?? Actually.... I really want to know if your gonna be accountable when WVU hands Louisville their ass and wins the Big East?? No?? I didn't think so. Just one more hater on the Big East and WVU. Dear Shawn, This is much the same response I have received in past years when I have listed teams lower than many fans think they should be ranked & in my first segment of Questions & Answers, I posted an in-depth answer to this very question. I received many of the same type of responses when I picked Tennessee for 3rd in the SEC East last year when their fans were thinking National Title. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Q: HOW CAN YOU POSSIBLY PICK (FILL IN THE BLANK) SO LOW IN THE RANKINGS THIS YEAR?? A: First of all, if you read my College Football Preview Magazine, which is 328 pages and has at least TWICE the amount of information as any other College Preview, you can tell I study College Football 365 days of the year. Are my predictions flawless? Let’s face it no one is perfect. I am pleased however to be rated the MOST ACCURATE COLLEGE football magazine over the last 7 years (www.preseason.stassen.com) and I put a GREAT DEAL of care into my selections. If you read my magazine you will see I usually give TONS of statistical reasons for ranking a team much lower or higher than the other magazines. Read the first question on this page to see some teams that had poor records one year and became national contenders the next. Now every year when I do my radio shows over the summer I get those calls from UNRULY fans whose teams I ranked too low. I could give you a HUNDRED EXAMPLES I’ve had over the years, but I will list just a few of my all time favorites and the ones that were met with the most consternation: In 1997 Washington St had a VERY impressive year as they rolled to a 10-1 regular season record, were Pac 10 champs, and appeared in the Rose Bowl. Cougar fans were awash with pride (and deservedly so). In my 1998 College Football Preview magazine I had the audacity to pick the DEFENDING Pac 10 Champs to finish TENTH!!! Now keep in mind at this time it was just the 4th year of my national magazine and I did not have as big a following or reputation that I have today. Frankly, I did not know that they had soooooo many sports radio stations up in Pullman, as I was a very popular guest there. All summer long I gave my reasoning for picking the Cougars so low and was called an idiot, told I knew NOTHING about football, and many times had listeners say they would NEVER purchase my magazine because it was distorted. When the 1998 season ended the DEFENDING PAC 10 CHAMPS FINISHED 10TH IN THE PAC 10 AT 0-8!!! In 2000 I was VERY HIGH on the Northwestern Wildcats. They were coming off a 1-7 Big 10 season and I called them my #4 MOST IMPROVED TEAM in the NCAA. I picked them higher than every other preview in the preseason and gave them a good shot at getting to a bowl. Northwestern’s 2000 squad did not disappoint as they actually TIED for the Big 10 title at 6-2 and got to a bowl. The next year, in 2001, the Wildcats were the popular pick for #1 in the Big 10 with no fewer than 7 sources pegging them there. They were ranked at the start of the year but I had the audacity to pick them TIED for NINTH in the Big 10!!! No other magazine or Internet source had them lower than 4th and as mentioned the majority had them first. The same Purple faithful who I had made very happy the previous year were now very angry with me. “Phil Steele has lost his mind”. They felt they had a national title contender and I picked them NINTH in the Big 10??!! Radio shows in the Chicago area had me as brainless, ignorant and completely lacking knowledge of the college game. When the season ended I was indeed WRONG on where the Cats would finish. I had them tied for 9th and they finished TIED for TENTH in the Big 10 with a 2-6 record!!! In 2003 Auburn was the very popular pick as a national title contender. Ten of my 11 competitors in Preseason Polls had them 1st in the SEC West. I actually had LSU winning the SEC WEST and called for Auburn to finish TIED for 2nd in the West. One of my favorite shows every year is the Paul Finebaum show in Alabama and he loves poking fun at my predictions and I remember him teasing me about picking Auburn so low. Auburn was actually picked #1 in the Country by the Sporting News and in the top 6 in 7 of the 12 polls. Probably the conference I care the most about with my predictions is the SEC as their fans are the most fervent and about 50% of the radio shows I do are in SEC country. I was relieved at the end of the year when LSU did indeed take home the West title and Auburn fans (and the school president) were very disillusioned with coach Tubervilleand the teams 8-5 finish. In 2003 Nebraska finished 10-3 and Iowa St was a very poor 2-10 including a PERFECT 0-8 in the Big 12. In 2004 I actually picked Iowa St to finish AHEAD of Nebraska in the Big 12 NORTH!!!! Now you know how fervent the SEC football fans are, well I angered the big RED nation in the summer of 2004. I was a VERY popular guest on radio shows in Lincoln and you would have thought I changed my name to “Here is the guy who picked Iowa St ahead of Nebraska in the Big 12 this year” as that is how I was introduced on most of those shows. Phone lines were lit up and boy was I ridiculed for not knowing football, being an idiot, etc. Once again fortunately for me Iowa St finished tied for 1st in the Big 12 and came within a missed FG of winning it outright. Nebraska suffered their first losing season in 31 years! Last year I did not make a lot of friends in Knoxville. Tennessee was regarded as a national title contender and ranked #2 or #3 in the country by NINE of the 12 sources sited on the www.preseason.stassen.com site. They were the consensus pick for the SEC EAST title. I picked the Vols #3 in the EAST and actually called for GEORGIA to win the EAST title while most others had the Bulldogs THIRD in the DIVISION. Tennessee was one of the states I did the most radio shows in the summer. Many callers questioned my sanity and knowledge among other things. How could I pick this national title contender THIRD in the their own DIVISION. Fortunately for me Georgia not only won the SEC East but also the SEC Title game and Tennessee had a rare losing year. Another popular state for me last year was Iowa as I did not have the Hawks in my Top 10 and they were ranked as high as #2 and #3 in some preseason polls. Iowa fans love their football and were not too happy with me last year but Iowa actually finished the regular season UNRANKED at 7-5. (I should be greeted much more warmly in both states and will likely be the ONLY magazine to call for Tennessee to win the SEC East this year). Most of the reasons for your (fill in the blank) team to be rated so low is schedule. Let me take a look at a couple of teams that will get the most questions. LSU - They must play AT AUBURN, FLORIDA, TENNESSEE AND ARKANSAS. I have them a dog in all 4 games. FLORIDA - The consensus pick for #1 in the SEC but they must play TENNESSEE, AUBURN, GEORGIA and FLORIDA ST all AWAY from home. They also draw Alabama and LSU out of the SEC West. WEST VIRGINIA - The Mountaineers remind me of Tennessee last season. They were not as impressive as their 2005 record of 11-1. They won FOUR games where they were outfirstdowned including a game at home vs. Louisville they trailed 24-7 in the 4Q and needed a miracle to win in 3 OT’s. They played their best game in the bowl (like Tenn in 2004) so everyone is sky high on them. They were fortunate to benefit from +3 in TO’s in the bowl as well (+14 on the year, see page 312). This year they have to face Louisville on the road (Cards beat teams at home by 55-15.5 avg LY) and also face Pitt on the road and have to play a vastly improved Maryland team that has given them plenty of troubles in the past. Am I calling for a losing season? NO WAY. They play a very soft schedule and will be favored in 10 of their 12 games but I do call them to finish tied for 2nd in the Big East. I am sure to have a lot of radio shows booked in Louisiana, Florida and West Virginia this year and fans of those teams will be lining up to tell me how wrong I am. I cannot say that shows like this are fun but it does make for good ratings for the local stations and fortunately I have had a pretty good track record on the forecasts. | ||
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Not all of my predictions work out but I am proud to be the most accurate preseason magazine over the past 7 years. If you feel so strongly about West Virginia winning at Louisville on November 2, then I suggest you book a flight to Las Vegas ASAP. The current line on that game at the Las Vegas Hilton Sportsbook has LOUISVILLE FAVORED BY 6’ points!!! It appears that Las Vegas agrees with my assessment of the game and you can get WV plus almost a full TD right now! Good Luck and we will have to wait until the evening of Nov 2 to see who is correct. Thanks for writing, | ||||||
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Phil, With so many teams picking up a 1-AA home game this year, would you adjust a teams power ranking after a game vs. a 1-AA opponent, excluding injury to key personnel? Thanks, Dave, Excellent question. Normally the largest power rating change I make is 5 points up or down and that would only be is a team was expected to win and lost by 20 or more (and their opponent would go up 5 after being expected to lose and winning by 20 or more). We do keep track of the power ratings for 1AA teams. I do not always change the ratings based on the score of the game depending on the situation. As an example if the 1A team is supposed to win by 58 and “only wins” by 35 the normal change in the power ratings would be 4 points down for the 1A team. Of course 1A teams rarely get “up” for 1AA foes and winning a game by 35 shows they were superior so I usually do not downgrade the 1A teams rating or if I do maybe only by a point or so. This year MY Plus Minus ratings will be put up here on the website and I will include our 1AA ratings updated weekly as well. If you would like more information on 1AA teams we do have TWENTY EIGHT pages on 1AA football in our Pac 10 regional magazine which is available for just $6.99 plus shipping (it is well worth it and you also get coverage on the Pac 10 (6 full pages on each) and WAC (3 full pages on each). Good question! | ||||||
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Past Q&A Sessions With Phil Steele Looking for the last page of questions that was here? Don't worry, as new questions are posted, the old questions & answers will be posted in an archived PDF file. Just click on the one that interests you! Would you like to ask Phil a question? All questions will be forwarded to Phil Steele & he will select several to post on this page each week. Email questions@philsteele.com and get your question in today! | ||
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