AFC Breakouts, Busts and Sleepers By Ted Kluck

Baltimore Ravens

Breakout: Mark Clayton, WR. Remember when the undersized Clayton wowed scouts at the Senior Bowl by not dropping a pass all week? Clayton outshined Derrick Mason last season, showing big-play ability in addition to running crisp routes.

Bust: Steve McNair, QB. McNair has never been a big numbers guy, but the fact that he isn’t getting any younger, coupled with questions about the running game, number McNair’s days as a fantasy factor

Sleeper: Kyle Boller, QB. I know, I know, he’s a bust. But perhaps he’s worth a shot as a handcuff to the rickety McNair.

Buffalo Bills

Breakout: J.P. Losman, QB. Losman made strides last season (62.5 % and over 3,000 yards), and it looks like the Buffalo brass has made the job his to lose.

Bust: Lee Evans, WR. I say this with the caveat that Evans will disappoint provided the Bills fail to find a compliment to him. Stretch-the-field guys like Evans, alone, always underachieve (see Chris Chambers).

Sleeper: Kevin Everett, TE. While it’s hard to endorse a player with one career reception as even a deep, deep, sleeper, Everett is the Bills’ best athlete at the position, and was drafted to give the team a downfield threat.

Cincinnati Bengals

Breakout: T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR. Some think Housh has eclipsed Ocho Cinco as the go-to-guy in Cincy, racking up more catches and more TD’s in fewer games last season.

Bust: The first Bengal to land in jail during the regular season. Could be a DUI, beating up a girlfriend, or armed robbery. Whatever it is, it will cost you fantasy points.

Sleeper: Chris Perry, RB. By nature of his ability to stay out of prison, Perry distances himself from the rest of the Bengals pack. Seriously though, if this guy can stay healthy, he will become the Bengals Marion Barber ­ the perfect change-of-pace compliment to Rudi.

Cleveland Browns

Breakout: Kellen Winslow, TE. Young quarterbacks on bad teams rely on the TE, and KII is a great one.

Bust: Jamal Lewis, RB. A shell of his former self, this is a lateral move (Droughns for Lewis) in Cleveland.

Sleeper: Jerome Harrison, RB. Again, a deep, deep sleeper, but someone will need to step in when Lewis falters.

Denver Broncos

Breakout: Jay Cutler, QB. Entrenched as the clear-cut starter, Cutler showed flashes of brilliance (and rookie stupidity) at the end of ’06. Still, there is a Favreian quality about his game.

Bust: Javon Walker, WR. Cutler will rely more on Tony Scheffler than the speedy Walker, who always seems to disappoint when the expectations get high.

Sleeper: Travis Henry, RB. Was anybody else quietly impressed with Henry’s performance last season? He staved off Chris Brown and LenDale White, and put together a nice season, earning a free-agent payday in Shanny’s RB Valhalla.

Houston Texans

Breakout: Ahman Green, RB. Somebody has to carry the football in Houston, right?

Bust: Matt Schaub, QB. David Carr was merely a sacrificial lamb, and those expecting Schaub to come in and perform miracles will be sorely disappointed. Expect Carr-like numbers, at least in the first year.

Sleeper: Owen Daniels, TE. It will still be a feeding frenzy for the usual suspects ­ Heap, Gonzales, Gates, and Vernon Davis ­ at TE, leaving savvy owners to pluck Daniels in later rounds.

Indianapolis Colts

Breakout: Joseph Addai, RB. No job-share means more numbers for last season’s pleasant surprise.

Bust: Dallas Clark, TE. Somebody (usually me) drafts him thinking “starting TE, huge offense = fantasy points” but the inevitable hamstring, shoulder, or concussion always derails the plan.

Sleeper: Anthony Gonzales, WR. A faster Brandon Stokley, this guy could be the heir-apparent to Marvin Harrison. He’s a better route-runner than Ted Ginn Jr. and times almost as fast.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Breakout: David Garrard, QB. The story is, “he just wins games.” Fantasy owners hope he can now put up numbers.

Sleeper: Matt Jones, WR. This is his “put up or shut up” season. My money is on the former.

Bust: Jags RB’s. Freddy and Maurice will share the load this season, which doesn’t help fantasy owners.

Kansas City Chiefs

Breakout: Whoever Emerges at WR. Probably Dwayne Bowe, eventually, but Tony Gonzales can’t continue to be the only passing game option. Eddie Kennison and Samie Parker are not the answer.

Bust: Larry Johnson, RB. People will point to his workload and age as possible reasons for a bustÉI’m more concerned about a contract dispute and unrealistic expectations.

Sleeper: Brodie Croyle, QB. If the Chiefs lose a few games early, look for them to hand the job to Croyle, who impressed scouts at last year’s Senior Bowl and could be the heir apparent to a powerful offense.

Miami Dolphins

Breakout: Ronnie Brown, RB. He’ll be option 1, 2, and 3 this season. Hope his legs can handle the pounding.

Bust: Ted Ginn Jr., WR. Will use his scintillating speed and penchant for injury to rack up 25 catches and maybe a couple of return scores.

Sleeper: Lorenzo Booker, RB. Meet your new Ronnie Brown handcuff. With Ricky out of the picture, Booker becomes valuable.

New England Patriots

Breakout: Laurence Maroney, RB. With his vulture (Dillon) gone, Maroney gets a chance to be the featured guy.

Bust: Any Pats TE. Not that they’re bad, there are just too many of them, and all of them can be threats in the red zone.

Sleeper: Wes Welker, WR. Gives Brady an NFL-caliber slot receiver to throw to, and he may be the only starting wideout who hasn’t gotten hurt (Stallworth) or gone nuts (Moss) by the end of the season.

New York Jets

Breakout: Thomas Jones, RB. Jones finally has a backfield all to himself and will make the most of the opportunity.

Bust: Jerricho Cotchery, WR. Was last year’s breakout a fluke? Hard to say, but keep in mind that versatile WR Brad Smith will be more involved, as well as the fact that this still isn’t a high-powered offense.

Sleeper: Chris Baker, TE. Sees a good number of touches in the red zone, could be a factor.

Oakland Raiders

Breakout: Ronald Curry, WR. Randy is finally gone, so Curry, a good receiver when healthy, stands to reap the benefits. If anyone can get him the football.

Bust: LaMont Jordan, RB. He was a disappointment last year, but then again, what Raider wasn’t?

Sleeper: Michael Bush, RB. A first-round talent, Bush could have been the steal of the draft, and will see a lot of work if (when) LaMont Jordan disappoints.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Breakout: Ben Roethlisberger, QB. Survived his own decision making (motorcycle) and a rash of injuries last year to put up decent numbers, but he will be underdrafted in your league, guarantee it. Pick him up late in your draft and reap the benefits.

Bust: Hines Ward, WR. Seemed to get old a little last season.

Sleeper: Santonio Holmes, WR. Big-time speed and playmaking ability. If this kid keeps his nose clean he becomes special.

San Diego Chargers

Breakout: Philip Rivers, QB. No surprises here. Rivers has the poise, accuracy, and touch to become a Manning-like presence in years to come.

Bust: Antonio Gates, TE. Hard to type this because Gates is such a great player, but I think his days of being the only option in the ‘Bolts passing game are over. By the way, this is good news for Chargers fans.

Sleeper: Vincent Jackson, WR. This guy has big-league size and speed, and became much more involved at the end of last season.

Tennessee Titans

Breakout: Lendale White, RB. T-Hen is gone, so this job seems, at least on the surface, to be Lendale’s to lose. This guy was a versatile hammer at USC but seems to be battling his own immaturity and expanding midsection.

Bust: Vince Young, QB. I don’t think he’ll be bad, I just think he’ll be overdrafted in your fantasy league. Keep in mind that the Titans still have major questions to be answered offensively.

Sleeper: Brandon Jones, WR. He’s a deep sleeper, but he led Titans receivers in TD’s last season, and he has good size.

Ed. Note: Ted Kluck is the author of three books, a former professional indoor football player, and a contributor to ESPN.com. He has agreed to write weekly fantasy content for PhilSteele.com during the 2007 season. His opinions are his own, and do not reflect those of Phil Steele Publications. Visit him online at www.tedkluck.com.

Back to the Fantasy Main Page