Phil's Top 25 Forecast

Each week I will look at the matchups involving top 25 teams for the upcoming week and give you my forecast on the game. If you read pages 324 and 327 of my National college football preview you will see I have a Power Plays projection for each teams yards for the season. I will give you my computers projection for each game as well and keep track how both do this season. The numbers above the game reflect the Power Plays projected box score for each game. I then write my personal analysis below. I am not a computer and I do not just go by what a computer predicts, so sometimes the forecasts may vary. All games will be tabulated by the Straight up winner of each game. I will also have a couple of extra marquee games or upset selections each week to keep it interesting. Here are this weeks games involving Top 25 teams. *Numbers in Red are actual numbers/ Highlighted numbers are within 30 pts!

Wk of September 1st

#1

#2

This one is a no brainer. USC is the nations top team with the best defense I have seen in college football in a long time. They also have an experienced veteran QB and so much depth that their #9 RB would be a starter for most schools including Idaho. They also have inside knowledge of the Vandal team as their defensive coordintor Nick Holt was the head coach of Idaho just two years ago and recruited most of the players. USC usually blows out teams at home and this one will not be close.
PHILS FORECAST: USC 55 IDAHO 0

I do feel the Bulldogs are a much improved team this year and capable of making this a close game. Unfortunately history is not on their side as LSU has won the last 6 by an average score of 42-7 and a few times in that stretch I thought Miss St would give them a close game. Last year LSU scored TD’s on their first 5 possessions and led 35-0. Only a weather delay and some meaningless second half points made the final a respectable 48-17 and Miss St had 153 of their 226 yards in the second half vs backups. PHILS FORECAST: LSU 34 Mississippi St 13

#3

#4

Western Michigan does not back down from anyone with Bill Cubit as the head man and they knocked off Virginia on the road last year and almost upset Florida St. Western players feel they can win this game. West Virginia does have state rival Marshall on deck but will be fully focused here. Tim Hiller gets the start for the Broncoes at QB and did have a 20-3 ratio as a starter in 2005. Western has solid speed on defense and I rate the teams defenses even. WM also allowed just 2.6 ypc last year and that should keep the game much closer than expected but WV’s large edge on offense and home field have me calling for the Mountaineers to open 1-0.
PHILS FORECAST: WEST VIRGINIA 37 Western Michigan 20

I don’t need to spend a lot of time on this one. Texas has opened the last 7 seasons winning by an average of 52-5 and Ark St lost to SMU 55-9 last year. Ark St is stronger than 2006 with 14 starters back but Texas’s 3rd string would be favored here.
PHILS FORECAST: TEXAS 45 Arkansas St 33

#6

#5

The defending national champs only have Troy on deck so should be off to a good start in the Swamp. While they have a young defense they take on a Western Kentucky attack that averaged just 23.5 ppg in 2006 and must replace their RB and QB. They are also trying to redshirt players so they are ready for their first full year in 1A next year.
PHILS FORECAST: FLORIDA 48 Western Kentucky 6

This is not just any 1AA (of FCS) team that Michigan is playing here. Appalachin St has won the LAST TWO 1AA TITLES and is loaded and the #1 1AA team this year. App St avg 35.2 ppg last year and has RB Kevin Richardson who rushed for 1676 yards (5.5) with 30 TD’s back as well as QB Amanti Edwards who threw for 2251 yards (61%, 15-10 ratio) and rushed for 1153 yards and 6.1 ypc both returning. Michigan does have big games vs Oregon and Notre Dame on deck!
PHILS FORECAST: MICHIGAN 40 Appalachian St 21

#8

Oklahoma had three losses last year including their bowl and will want a strong start to the season. North Texas has 3 sophs and 2 rFr on the offensive line with the top 5 having a combined ZERO starts experience. That makes it a shutout and when Oklahoma goes to the backups on offense they have two guys at QB in Halzie and Nichol who were in contention for the #1 job and should fare well.
PHILS FORECAST: OKLAHOMA 49 NORTH TEXAS 0

#7

The Badgers were 12-1 last year and finished #7 in the polls. With 16 returning starters they are an even stronger squad but do keep in mind they did not defeat a ranked team during the regular season. Wash St was 6-3 at one point last year with their only losses to three top 10 teams. The bottom fell out at the end. Wash St does have a veteran QB in Brink but lose 5 of their top 7 tacklers on defense and lost to #4 Auburn 40-14 in their opener last year.
PHILS FORECAST: WISCONSIN 31 WASH ST 17

#10

Murray St was 1-10 last year and their defense allowed 35.1 ppg. This is a huge mismatch and Cards backups will see a lot of action.
PHILS FORECAST: LOUISVILLE 65 MURRAY ST 0

#9

#12 vs #15

This will be a low scoring game as East Carolina has an underrated defense that has held West Virginia’s potent offense to its 2nd lowest total of the season each of the last two year. Virginia Tech may have their best defense since 1999 and EC’s starting QB Kass has been suspended for the game after taking most of the snaps with the #1 unit during August. VT also has emotion on its side with this the first game since their on campus tragedy.
PHILS FORECAST: VIRGINIA TECH 27 EAST CAROLINA 6

Les Miles said USC plays a weak schedule because they play in the Pac 10. Cal players hae read that quote and will want to make sure they show the folks from the SEC how good the Pac 10 is. QB Ainge has a broken pinky on his throwing hand and while he will play you have to wonder about his effectiveness. A much different game than last year.
PHILS FORECAST: #12CALIFORNIA 31 #15 TENNESSEE 27

#11

#14

Jim Treseel figures to take it easy on his old school which he led to many 1AA titles in his tenure with the Penguins. YSt is #6 in the preseason 1AA (FCS) poll but lost its top two RB’s, top WR and 5 of their top 7 tacklers and are out of their league here.
PHILS FORECAST: OHIO ST 41 YOUNGSTOWN ST 6

UCLA has lost 3 of their last 4 trips to Palo Alto and Jim Harbaugh will have the Cardinal sky high for this. The last 6 times Karl Dorrel has been favored on the road vs BCS schools they have 3 outright losses and 2 OT wins. Stanford will keep this much closer than expected but with the Bruins having 20 starters back I cant pull the trigger and call for the outright upset.
PHILS FORECAST: UCLA 24 STANFORD 17

#13

#17

The Bulldogs are a little shorthanded with CB Brown and TE Chandler both suspended and their secondary overall a little banged up. The Bulldogs still have the more complete team and are at home between the hedges. Oklahoma St has excellent skill players but Georgia has the stronger team and opens the year with a win.
PHILS FORECAST: GEORGIA 33 OKLAHOMA ST 24

Penn St is a darkhorse national title contender and this will be no contest.
PHILS FORECAST: PENN ST 41 FLORIDA INT'L 0

#19

#16

Rutgers has Navy on deck and are huge favorites to open the season. A surprising stat is that just two years ago Buffalo had a 21-13 FD edge vs Rutgers in a 17-3 loss. Buffalo will make a game of this for awhile and are a much improved team but Rutgers coast to a Thursday night win.
PHILS FORECAST: RUTGERS 34 BUFFALO 6

A KEY game to open the ACC Atlantic division. You know I have Florida St as my #1 surprise team but Clemson is also underrated this year. It wont be easy but Seminoles get the win.
PHILS FORECAST: FLORIDA ST 24 CLEMSON 17

#21

#18

Arkansas will not have WR Marcus Monk for this and Troy should make it very interesting. Arkansas has a large edge with its power running game vs a Troy defense that struggled vs the run when facing the big boys last year.
PHILS FORECAST: ARKANSAS 37 TROY 17

Auburn is at home with the edge of the humidity of the South and Kansas St has suffered some attrition over the summer. .
PHILS FORECAST: AUBURN 30 KANSAS ST 13

#23

#20

My only question here is whether the Warriors can top 100 points vs a team that was poor in 1AA ball last year.
PHILS FORECAST: HAWAII 80 NORTHERN COLORADO 0

Nevada is down to a 3rd string C with their Pistol offense and Nebraska is loaded. Nevada is also without their top defensive player and Huskers get a comfortable win.
PHILS FORECAST: NEBRASKA 35 NEVADA 10

#22

#25

Baylor coach Morriss is a TCU graduate so this game is very important to him. Unfortunately TCU has a HUGE edge on defense and has beaten 4 Big 12 teams the last 2 years.
PHILS FORECAST: TCU 34 Baylor 10

Montana St is a decent 1AA foe but the Aggies are a powerful team capable of a blowout.
PHILS FORECAST: TEXAS A&M 40 MONTANA ST 0

#24

No way does a 1AA team come onto the blue surface and come away with a win.
PHILS FORECAST: BOISE ST 41 WEBER ST 13

Phil's Top 25 Record as of 9/1: 22-2 92%

Phil's Overall Record including Upset Special as of 9/1: 24-4 86%

UPSET SPECIAL: Thursday, August 30th