Phil's Top 25 Forecast

Each week I will look at the matchups involving top 25 teams for the upcoming week and give you my forecast on the game. If you read pages 324 and 327 of my National college football preview you will see I have a Power Plays projection for each teams yards for the season. I will give you my computers projection for each game as well and keep track how both do this season. The numbers above the game reflect the Power Plays projected box score for each game. I then write my personal analysis below. I am not a computer and I do not just go by what a computer predicts, so sometimes the forecasts may vary. All games will be tabulated by the Straight up winner of each game. I will also have a couple of extra marquee games or upset selections each week to keep it interesting. Here are this weeks games involving Top 25 teams.*Numbers in Red are actual numbers/ Highlighted numbers are within 30 pts!

Wk of September 6th

#2 vs #9

#3

My statistical forecast above is probably skewed a little by last weeks results as LSU won 45-0 but was not dominant yardage wise and Virginia Tech did what it had to to get past East Carolina at home. The Yards show a low scoring game with LSU having a 340-160 yard edge. Virginia Tech VT beat #2 ranked Miami Florida in 2003 and nearly upset #1 USC in 2004. It would not surprise me to see VT win in an upset but LSU at home should prevail in a game closer than most (including my computer) expect. PHIL’S FORECAST: LSU 20 Virginia Tech 13

White and Slaton can score anytime they touch the ball and Marshall lost DE McClellan to injury in August and he is the reigning CUSA Defensive player of the year. The Mounties have a Thursday night game on deck and have not traveled here since 1915. Marshall had to go to the state legislature to get WV to play them and sometimes you have to be careful what you wish for.
PHIL’S FORECAST: WEST VIRGINIA 47 Marshall 20

#4

#5

Troy got a TD on the last play of the game last week to “only” lose to Arkansas by 20. They do not match up well vs power rushing teams like Arkansas but usually fare better vs spread teams like the Gators. Flloridas D did allow a long drive on the first series last week but WK lost its starting QB and they fared much better vs the backup QB’s. Florida has a big game vs Tennessee next week but should roll to a comfortable win although their young defense will get its first real test with QB Haughabrook. PHIL’S FORECAST: FLORIDA 44 Troy 20

The Badgers fans travel well and should take up at least half the crowd here. UNLV QB Dixon had just 2 yards passing in the first half last week but finished with 141 and had 138 yards rush. Wisconsin allowed 181 yards in the 1Q last week and then shut down Wash St. This week the highest ranked team in the Big 10 wins easily (unlike last weeks highest ranked team).
PHIL’S FORECAST: WISCONSIN 42 Unlv 13

#5

#7 vs #19

These two last met in the 1988 Orange Bowl in which Miami won the national title. I was not that impressed with Miami last week even though they rolled to a 31-3 win. Marshall moved the ball more than I thought they would and Miami did not take full advantage of a defense that is missing their star. Oklahoma rFr QB Bradford hit 21 of 23 for 363 yards in his debut and rFr RB Murray had 5 TD’s vs North Texas. Sooners have better offense, defense and special teams and are at home and are a legitimate national title contender.
PHIL’S FORECAST: OKLAHOMA 27 Miami Florida 13

Texas was outgained last week by Ark St and did not have the game put away until an Ark St onside kick was overturned by penalty and they recovered the ensuing kick. TCU was not as impressive vs Baylor as the score would indicate as they were outgained in the first half 204-202. TCU did lose DT Sisk in August and their star DE Blake did not play last week. This is TCU’s “Super Bowl” and if they had a fully healthy DLine I would have contemplated calling for the upset.
PHIL’S FORECAST: TEXAS 23 Tcu 14

#8

#10

Louisville has a huge game vs rival Kentucky on deck but will have a couple extra days to prep for it and are on national TV here. They dominated last years game more than the score would indicate and the fact that Middle Tennessee made a bowl last year will have they interested this week. Cards will flirt with 600 yards offense (computer calls for 595).
PHIL’S FORECAST: LOUISVILLE 51 Middle Tennessee 7

This is a flat spot for California as they are off their big win over SEC member Tennessee at home last week and take to the road and battle some altitude. Sonny Lubick has his most experienced team ever and they will be fired up at home but Cal has got just too much team speed.
PHIL’S FORECAST: CALIFORNIA 37 Colorado St 24

#11

#12

I feel this is the game that will decide who wins the SEC East this year. Spurrier has the most experienced team among the big boys in the East and has done very well on the road in SEC play with 5 wins the last two years. His QB Blake Mitchell was suspended last game which means their offense is not yet up to speed. I was very impressed with the Bulldogs in their destruction of Okla St last week but this one figures to be a tight one.
PHIL’S FORECAST: GEORGIA 26 South Carolina 23

Jim Tressel took it easy on his old school Youngstown St last week but they need to get RB Beanie Wells on track (x.x ypc last week) and will do so here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: OHIO STATE 38 Akron 3

#14

#13

I am NOT overreacting to last weeks ND Game. Young QB’s and young offensive lines struggle on the road and this is their FIRST road game and vs my #7 defense in the country. Last year Penn St had the young QB and Oline and turnovers turned a tight game into a blowout. I see the exact same thing this year with the home team rolling to a big win.
PHIL’S FORECAST: PENN ST 34 Notre Dame 3

Both teams were impressive last week and BYU vs a defense that is almost as good as UCLA’s put up 392 yards with QB Hall throwing for 288 in his first start. Arizona got a TD in the final minutes to avoid a shutout. UCLA rolled over Stanford and have their best team yet under Dorrell. This is a first road start for Hall so call for the Bruins to grab the win in Pasedena.
PHIL’S FORECAST: UCLA 27 Byu 17

#16

#15

jI thought Wake had a shot at upsetting Boston College last week but Wake tossed a couple of int’s in the end zone including one with the score tied at 21-21 and WF inside the 5 poised to take a 28-21 lead. Nebraska rushed for over 400 yards last week and are the much bigger, stronger, faster team. WF coach Grobe has engineered some big upsets but did lose QB Skinner to injury in the 3Q last week and wont play here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NEBRASKA 33 Wake Forest 24

This is the by far the toughest non conference foe that Rutgers faces so they probably spent a good portion of August working on the option. LY they held Navy to 113 yards rush but Navy did lose their starting QB early. Navy has only beaten one ranked team in 20 years and RB Rice is on national TV hoping to garner some Heisman attention. PHIL’S FORECAST: RUTGERS 33 Navy 17

#20

#17

Hawaii QB Brennan hit 3440 for 416 yards in the first half last week and then sat the bench in the 2nd half. Hawaii LOST their last trip to this site and Brennan figures to play into the 4Q before coming out here. Last year Brennan threw for 506 yards vs LT and my computer calls for 480 yards passing here. I think they win by more than the computer forecasts.
PHIL’S FORECAST: HAWAII 49 Louisiana Tech 13

Kansas St outplayed Auburn last week. I was watching my 9 games at night but I had the volume on this one and Kan St’s defense was so much in charge that the color commentor made a statement mid 4Q that he felt unless Kan St made a mistake they would win the game. They ended up giving up a TD and then a fumble return for a TD made it a misleading final. USF has a better defense and a better offense than Kansas St! USF usually highlights one of two games a year as possible games to put them on the map. They knocked off #9 Louisville and #6 West Virginia (in Morgantown0 the last two years. A South Florida upset here puts them into the darkhorse national title contenders role as they get both Louisville and West Virginia at home late this year.
PHIL’S FORECAST: SOUTH FLORIDA 16 #17 Auburn 15

#22

Last year Washington went on the road vs USC and only lost by 6. With a backup QB starting they went on the road to California and lost in OT. They could have been in a bowl last year and this year instead of starting a backup QB like they did the 2nd half of last season they have the programs savior at QB in Jake Locker. The computer shows them with over 200 yards both rushing and passing and Boise St is not the same team when playing on a green field. I will call for the NCAA’s 1A longest win streak to end this week. PHIL’S FORECAST: WASHINGTON 30 Boise St 27

#21

#24

Georgia Tech is off its blowout win in South Bend and has a huge game vs Boston College on deck. The computer shows this as a blowout but it will be a good week for a lot of the backups to see action early. PHIL’S FORECAST: GEORGIA TECH 50 Samford 0

Tennessee is off their big game vs Cal and has a huge game vs Flrorida on deck.. Southern Miss is the best team in CUSA and will be thinking upset here. The situation says it is possible and we will learn a lot about these two teams here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: TENNESSEE 27 Southern Miss 17

#23

#25

Both teams were lackluster last week with A&M being outgained by Montana St. The Aggies should play up to their talent level this week and I was surprised to see the computers forecast calling for a blowout here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: TEXAS A&M 38 Fresno St 17

I was VERY impressed with Clemson in the 1st half this week. Even on a short week they should roll here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: CLEMSON 37 UL Monroe 16

Strengh of Schedule
Surprise Game

Indiana took on a weak 1AA team in Indiana St last week and had a 516-176 yard edge. They are currently #18 in the country on offense and #11 on defense in the NCAA’s statistics. Western Michigan took on one of the nations best teams in West Virginia and was outgained 542-277. They are currently #86 in the NCAA on offesnse and #106 on defense. Those stats are skewed by the strength of schedule and my power ratings show Western is the stronger team and at home and will pull the surprise.
PHIL’S FORECAST: WESTERN MICHIGAN 31 Indiana 27

Phil's Top 25 Record as of 9/7: 42-3 93%

Phil's Overall Record including Upset Special as of 9/7: 45-7 87%