Phil's Top 25 Forecast

Each week I will look at the matchups involving top 25 teams for the upcoming week and give you my forecast on the game. If you read pages 324 and 327 of my National college football preview you will see I have a Power Plays projection for each teams yards for the season. I will give you my computers projection for each game as well and keep track how both do this season. The numbers above the game reflect the Power Plays projected box score for each game. I then write my personal analysis below. I am not a computer and I do not just go by what a computer predicts, so sometimes the forecasts may vary. All games will be tabulated by the Straight up winner of each game. I will also have a couple of extra marquee games or upset selections each week to keep it interesting. Here are this weeks games involving Top 25 teams.*Numbers in Red are actual numbers/ Highlighted numbers are within 30 pts!

Wk of September 13th

#1 vs #14

#2

This is the first of 5 bowl teams that USC must face on the road and the thing I love about college football is that the regular season means everything. This is one of those “playoff” games everyone is clamoring for but it happens during the regular season. I am surprised my computer calls this one so close with USC only having a 23 yard edge. I think USC outdoes the computers forecast. Phil’s Forecast: #1 USC 24 Nebraska 14

LSU is off two big games (SEC opener and VTech) and has Steve Spurrier on deck. I know MT scored vs Louisvilles D last week but they now take on the #2 D in the country. MT has no chance here. Phil’s Forecast: #2 LSU 49 Middle Tenn St 0

#3

#4

The Sooners were very impressive last week and hopefully they continue to be as impressive as I had them #3 in the country coming into the year which is higher than any other magazine had them. Sam Bradford for Heisman?
Phil’s Forecast: #3 OKLAHOMA 59 Utah St 3

West Virginia sure is explosive and scored 3 TD’s in the last 9:00 turning a 27-23 game into a 25 point win. Maryland’s offense has not been impressive but have they been keeping things under wraps for this one? The Fridge dominated Rodriquez in their first few meetings but WV has now won 3 in a row.
Phil’s Forecast: #4 WEST VIRGINIA 39 Maryland 23

#5 vs #22

#6

This one figures to be a shootout. Floridas defense has yet to be tested by an offense like Tennessee’s. My computer calls for both teams to top 30 points and I agree. Tennessee has the slight edge on D and Florida has the edge on offense, special teams and is at home. I will side with the defending national champs in the “Swamp”.
Phil’s Forecast: #5 FLORIDA 37 Tennessee 30

UCF is opening a new stadium and very excited off a bye. Texas has not been impressive this year and even last week trailed TCU at the half. The Horns still have a large talent edge and move to 3-0. Phil’s Forecast: #6 TEXAS 30 UCF 16

#8

#7

Tech almost upset Hawaii last week but this will be a different setting a much differend outcome. My computer says Cal will have a 589-258 yard edge and last weeks almost upset of a ranked team will have Cal enguard.
Phil’s Forecast: #8 CALIFORNIA 49 Louisiana Tech 13

The Citadel return 15 starters from a 5-6 team of 2006. They lost to Texas A&M 35-3 and Pitt 51-6 last year. Citadel is 6-1 their last 7 with their only loss to App St. They are 2-0 and avg 233 ypg BOTH rushing and passing. While they are in the same conference as Appalachin St they have no shot at that type of upset here. Phil’s Forecast: #7 Wisconsin 39 The Citadel 14

#10

#9

The Buckeyes offense did not look that good last week vs Akron but after allowing 2 FD’s on the Zips opening drive they gave up ONE FD the rest of the game. Last week I picked the Huskies to upset Boise St and while the upset is possible here and this one should go down to the wire, I will call for Ohio St to escape with the win. Phil’s Forecast: #10 OHIO STATE 20 Washington 10

You have to figure the last team with the ball wins. Last week Kent St had a 18-6 FD edge at the half vs Kentucky and if not for blown opportunities could have led by 2 TD’s. Despite last weeks national TV performance by the Cards D, I still think they have the edge on that side of the ball. Last time they met here UK fumbled at the Louisville 2 late and the Cards escaped with a 7 point win. I will call for the Cards to stay unbeaten.
Phil’s Forecast: #9 LOUISVILLE 52 Kentucky 42

#12

#11

Buffalo got a big win last week at Temple where they dominated. Penn St is in one of the biggest sandwiches of the season as they are off their revenge win over Notre Dame and have a HUGE game vs Michigan on deck in which a victory has them on course for a possible national title. Even a disinterested Penn St wins this comfortably. Phil’s Forecast: #12 PENN ST 38 Buffalo 3

UCLA was not as impressive as the score last week as they were outgained by BYU 435-236. Utah without their QB Johnson (out 1 month) and RB Asista (out yr) lost at home to Air Force in a game Utah was at the 2 yard line late with a chance to tie. UCLA is at full strength however and take a step down in competition this week and the injury plagued Utes take a step up in competition and last year the Bruins whipped Utah 31-10 at home.
Phil’s Forecast: #11 UCLA 34 Utah 13

#13

#15 vs #21

Norfolk St only has 10 starters back and has only faced a Division II team this year and are 2-6 SU their last 8. Rutgers will dominate.
Phil’s Forecast: #13 RUTGERS 51 Norfolk St 0

Last week BC was outgained by NCar St 407-373 but State turned it over SEVEN times. BC is off a big home opener vs the defending ACC champ and Last week took on their coach that left them in the offseason so this is actually a let down spot for them. Jon Tenuta’s defense will disrupt BC’s new blocking schemes. Tech makes a statement that it is the true contender in the ACC Coastal.
Phil’s Forecast: #15 GEORGIA TECH 30 Boston College 13

#16

I had Alabama in my top 25 at the start of the year and did not have Arkansas in that group. On my radio show circuit everyone asked me “Who is this years Arkansas?”. My answer is Alabama and the Tide could have won last years game on the road as John Parker Wilson did well in his first road start. After this one Alabama will be ranked and the Hogs.
Phil’s Forecast: ALABAMA 30 #16 Arkansas 20

#17

#18

Spurrier will spend little time preparing for this state “rival” with LSU on deck but it wont matter
Phil’s Forecast: #17 SOUTH CAROLINA 36 South Carolina St 0

#19

Virginia Tech has not looked good in their first two games and need to turn it on this week and will do so with Taylor getting his first start (PS#3). Ohio is not good vs quality teams when behind (see MAC Title game and bowl) and the Hokies finally look like the top 10 team they were picked at the start of the year.
Phil’s Forecast: #18 VIRGINIA TECH 34 Ohio U 6

Fresno had 5 FD’s at the half last week vs Texas A&M but the Aggies let them back in the game. Last year Oregon outgained Pac 10 foes by a league best 138 ypg but no one paid any attention to them as they finished just 7-6. I called them one of the most improved teams in the country and I also called them a surprise national title contender and they continue to roll here.
Phil’s Forecast: #19 OREGON 45 Fresno St 21

#20

Clemson has their ACC opener on deck but should have no problems with the Palladins.
Phil’s Forecast: #20 Clemson 42 Furman 9

#23

#24

Georgia is off a loss but get an easy win here.
Phil’s Forecast: #23 Georgia 53 West Carolina 0

Last year I picked Boise St to get to a BCS bowl berth and I had a couple of games in which they were nearly upset and had to sweat them out. Hawaii had one of those last week just getting past LT in OT. UNLV QB Dixon is playing well but the Warriors who spent the last week on the mainland still cash in with a win.
Phil’s Forecast: #24 HAWAII 37 Unlv 23

#25

A&M is 2-0 but neither win was impressive. They have a huge Thursday night game vs Miami Fla on deck but still win this in College Station vs an underrated ULM.
Phil’s Forecast: #25 TEXAS A&M 45 ULMonroe 21

Phil's Top 25 Record as of 9/15: 61-6 91%

Phil's Overall Record including Upset Special as of 9/15: 65-12 85%