Phil's Top 25 Forecast

Each week I will look at the matchups involving top 25 teams for the upcoming week and give you my forecast on the game. If you read pages 324 and 327 of my National college football preview you will see I have a Power Plays projection for each teams yards for the season. I will give you my computers projection for each game as well and keep track how both do this season. The numbers above the game reflect the Power Plays projected box score for each game. I then write my personal analysis below. I am not a computer and I do not just go by what a computer predicts, so sometimes the forecasts may vary. All games will be tabulated by the Straight up winner of each game. I will also have a couple of extra marquee games or upset selections each week to keep it interesting. Here are this weeks games involving Top 25 teams.*Numbers in Red are actual numbers/ Highlighted numbers are within 30 pts!

Wk of September 27th

#1

#2

Last year the Huskies in a poor season only lost by 6 AT USC and now get them at home. Washington led Ohio ST 7-3 at the half this year but did lose 33-14. My computer calls for a similar score and Trojans deserve their #1 ranking.
PHIL’S FORECAST: #1 USC 37 Washington 20

This is technically a LSU road game but it is in their backyard and they will actually have the crowd edge. This is also the site of the national title game in which they hope to participate this year. Even in a huge SEC sandwich the Tigers have too big a talent edge and my computer says they will have a 245-0 rush edge.
PHIL’S FORECAST: #2 LSU 49 Tulane 0

#3

#4

The Sooners could very well be the best team in the NCAA but NEXT weeks game at Texas will go a long way to determining that. Colorado has an underrated defense and I am surprised my computer “only” calls for 378 yards for the juggernaut OU offense.
PHIL’S FORECAST: #3 OKLAHOMA 34 Colorado 13

Auburn only led 21-20 at the half last week and won big thanks to TO’s and a 67 yard TD run in the final seconds when running out the clock. Florida survived a sandwich game last week but their surprisingly good defense should chomp down on a young Auburn Oline making its first road trip of the year and to “the Swamp”. Florida ONLY loss last year was to Auburn so this is legitimate revenge. Gators actually dropped a spot in the polls last week so my look for an impressive rout and get it.
PHIL’S FORECAST: #4 FLORIDA 41 Auburn 17

#5 vs #18

#6 vs #11

This will be the biggest home game ever for USF and their first ever sellout crowd at Raymond James stadium (65,000) They have the defensive team speed to slow down that unstoppable WV offense. This will be one of if not the best Friday night game this year. An upset would not surprise me (I had South Florida as one of my surprise teams this year) but I picked WV to win the Big East and to do that they need a win here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: #5 W VIRGINIA 31 #18 South Florida 24

A few weeks ago when Alabama played Arkansas I noted that I was surprised Arkansas was ranked and Alabama was not and said that would change after the game was played. Here Cal is in the Top 10 and Oregon is not and that will change after this week with Oregon moving up and Cal moving out. Look at the computer forecast of 575 yards for the Duck offense in raucous Autzen stadium this week!
PHIL’S FORECAST: #11 OREGON 48 #6 California 30

#7

#8

Last year Texas took their opening drive for a TD but QB McCoy was injured on the TD and missed the game and Kansas St got the upset. The Horns did not look good in their first 3 games but now they are close to full strength at WR and that will have their offense much more potent here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: #7 TEXAS 37 Kansas St 13

Minneapolis is a great place to visit with the Mall of America and a lot of other nice things to do especially this time of year. Buckeye fans will travel in force and this game pits one of the best defenses in the country vs one of the worst. Ohio States offense is now rounding into form and that spells a rout.
PHIL’S FORECAST: #8 OHIO STATE 41 Minnesota 13

#9

#10

Wisconsin played well in the opener but has been fortunate just to pull out wins in 2 of the last 3 weeks. Iowa had a TD pass miss by inches on 4th down last week. I thought Notre Dame would rally and beat Michigan St at home last week but the Spartans won again and have been impressive. Badgers still have more talent and are at home.
PHIL’S FORECAST: #9 WISCONSIN 30 Michigan St 23

The biggest question here is MArylands mental state. Last week they led Wake Forest 24-7 and were at the 3 yard line about to make it 31-7 when they were not only intercepted but returned 100+ yards for a TD. Wake ended up getting a TD with :03 left to force OT and the Terps lost it there. They are much better than their record and only lost to West Virginia by 17.
PHIL’S FORECAST: #10 RUTGERS 34 Maryland 24

#13

#12

Clemson is looking like the best team in their division but the yards forecast actually shows GT with a 349-313 yard edge. This one always goes to the wire but I will call for the Tigers to escape with the win.
PHIL’S FORECAST: #13 CLEMSON 24 Georgia Tech 23

UMass is 4-0 and ranked #2 in IAA ball and last year almost upset Navy. They will give a solid game here but my computer still shows BC with 589 yards offense.
PHIL’S FORECAST: #12 BOSTON COLL 37 Massachuttes 16

#15

#14

Ole Miss had a tremendous situational edge for Florida at home last week and almost pulled the upset. It will not be Georgia’s “A” game here but they will be warned after barely getting past the Rebels on the road last year and the Bulldogs have a good sized talent edge and are at home.
PHIL’S FORECAST: #15 GEORGIA 41 Mississippi 17

Kentucky was outgained 373-131 at the half last week by Arkansas but with the Hogs poised to put it away driving for a 28-7 lead they fumbled and it was returned for a TD in the final seconds and it was just 21-14. Three weeks ago Kent St had a 18-6 FD edge at the half but it was just 14-14. Kentucky is off two huge wins and has a Thursday Night game vs South Carolina on deck. Florida Atlantic keeps it closer than expected.
PHIL’S FORECAST: #14 KENTUCKY 42 Florida Atlantic 28

#17

#16

VT’s offense is still a work in progress but NCarolina caught South Florida in a sandwich last week and were still walloped 37-10 and VT needs a confidence builder and gets one here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: #17 VIRGINIA TECH 34 N Carolina 10

South Carolina is off their big game at LSU and has a Thursday Night game on deck vs Kentucky. Miss St just played a 1AA foe and will be thinking upset having already knocked off Auburn on the road. SC still grabs the win at home but it wont be easy.
PHIL’S FORECAST: #16 SOUTH CAROLINA 26 Miss St 16

#21

#19

I am very high on both these teams and this one should come down to the wire and be decided by a FG at most.
PHIL’S FORECAST: #21 PENN ST 20 Illinois 17

Colt Brennan missed last week but should be back here and already has started a game in the Kibbie Dome with its shortened end zones.
PHIL’S FORECAST: #19 HAWAII 51 Idaho 24

#23

#22

This is the first road game for Arizona St and Ericksons teams have always been much stronger at home than on the road. I still feel ASU will open the season 8-0 and Stanford has played two Pac 10 home games and been blown out in both.
PHIL’S FORECAST: #23 ARIZONA ST 41 Stanford 20

Great spot for Florida St as they are off a bye and the Tide needed a last second TD pass to get past Arkansas two weeks ago and then lost in OT last week to Gerogia in a pair of crucial SEC games. Bama looks like the stronger team and the crowd will be evenly split but Seminols have a huge situaional edge and grab the win.
PHIL’S FORECAST: FLORIDA ST 24 #22 Alabama 20

#25

#24

I watched the Nebraska game last week and Ball St DESERVED to win that. They completely outplayed the Huskers. NU needs a good win here and Iowa St should be the perfect tonic.
PHIL’S FORECAST: #25 NEBRASKA 44 Iowa St 13

The above computer forecast sums this one up. The yards are practically even at 431-401 but the points say Cincy by 19. That is because Cincy has been a TO producing machine. Cincy is ranked for the first time since 1986 is off a big home win and have Rutgers on deck and is making a long and rare trip to the West coast. San Diego St needs a statement game and will keep this closer than my computer projects.
PHIL’S FORECAST: #24 CINCINNATI 30 S Diego St 20

Phil's Top 25 Record as of 9/30: 93-18 84%

Phil's Overall Record including Upset Special as of 9/30: 99-26 79%