Facebook Forecasts

 

1. Arkansas at Alabama, Sept 24th - Both teams have 1st year starting QB's but Ark's Wilson makes his first road start vs the best defense in the country (not ideal situation). In Mallett's 1st start here (12 of 35 passing) and the Hogs lost 35-7 with just 254 yds offense. Ark Oline also is young and has to replace three 3-yr starters. Both teams are in my Top Ten in my Power Poll but 1st road starts are tough and the Tide wins at home 27-17.

2. LSU vs Oregon Arlington, Tx Sept 3rd - Two top 5 teams in a national title elimination game to open the year. Oregon has the offensive edge with QB Thomas and RB James. LSU has the defensive edge and will have 70% of the crowd and just played at this venue in the bowl. UO has managed just 17 & 19 pts in bowls vs teams with extra time to prep. Suspension to CB/PR Harris gives the slight edge to LSU 28-27.

3. Cincinnati at Tennessee September 10th - Both teams make my most improved list and are probably at least 10 points stronger than their 2010 versions. Cincy is 1-7 vs non conf AQ teams on the road losing by an avg of 20 ppg. Cincy does have a Special Teams edge and the offenses and defenses are very close with a couple of exp’d QB's. Great game and goes to the wire but the SEC home team prevails. Tennessee 27-24.

4. Oklahoma at Florida St September 17th - LY OU scored TD’s on their 1st 4 poss (led 47-10) allowing a 47 yd garbage TD pass on the final play. Landry Jones had 372 yds at half (conservative 2H). OU is 14-0 at home but just 4-6 on the road recently. Jones threw for 362 ypg vs 6 ranked foes (FSU QB Manuel 157 ypg vs 3 ranked). Both teams rank in my top units in all 8 position categories. Sooners escape with the win 31-27.

5. Ohio St at Miami Fl September 17th - The depleted Buckeyes team will have a new head coach and a new QB and be without their top RB and WR and are making their first road trip. Miami was an underachieving team last year and is playing with revenge and at home with the more talented team due to OSU being shorthanded. Miami wins it 28-20.

6. LSU at West Virginia September 24th- WV nearly pulled the upset in Death Valley last year with a 14-12 FD edge. LSU got a PR TD and a 7 yd TD drive after recovering a fumble. WV did have 3 plays or less on 10 of 13 poss but is much more potent on offense and at home. LSU is on third road game in 4 weeks but had a solid defensive edge and the SEC squad beats the Big East team by a point, 28-27.

7. Alabama at Florida October 1st- The Tide has won the last 2 in this series by a combined 63-19 and Bama has back 17 starters and their head coach while Florida has just 10 starters back and a new coaching staff. Florida has been an underdog just once in the Swamp in TEN years but did lose that game to Florida St in 2003. Gators also lost 3 in the Swamp last year (LSU, Miss St, SCar). Alabama 20-16.

8. Boise St vs Georgia Atlanta, GA September 3rd. I have Boise #4 in my Power Poll and Georgia #11 but this is in the Dawgs back yard. Georgia won last meeting 48-13 over a ranked Boise team in '05. Last year Boise beat VTech in the Hokies back yard to open the year. With the home edge factored in I rate this as a pure tossup so I left it to the Facebook vote and it was 62% in favor or Georgia so the Bulldogs win it 31-30.

9. Colorado St at New Mexico September 3rd. CSU is one of my most improved teams in the country and after B2B 3-9 seasons I think they will be bowl eligible TY. The last time here NM hit a GW 27 yd FG w/:12 left that gave them their only win of the season. The Lobos have not scored a TD in a season opener since 2005 and LY CSU had 30-11 FD and 584-237 yd edges and also has a large edge on ST's. I'll call for the Rams to pick up a key road win 31-24.

10. Akron at Ohio St September 3rd. This game is much more important now to the Buckeyes rather than everything remaining status quo in the offseason. They will need to establish the QB play and have a feel good game. Akron is #120 in my power poll and returns 14 starters. Even without the Buckeye 5 and Tressel Ohio St gets an impressive win 41-6.

11. Arkansas vs Texas A&M October 1st Arlington, TX. Ark has won the previous two meetings in Cowboys Stadium 47-19 in '09 and 24-17 LY. A&M did have the ball at the Ark39 down 7 at the end of LY's game. A&M returns 18 st'rs while Ark returns just 13. The Aggies also have the more veteran QB. While I had this game rated as a toss-up you guys gave the edge to Ark and I'll call for the Hogs to win 31-30!

12. Georgia vs Florida October 29th Jacksonville. Since 1998 UF has had a bye prior to facing UGA 9 times and has won all 9 of those meetings! This year both teams have a bye. LY UF was able to pull it out in OT but TY UGA has the more veteran team and more exp'd HC. I like the Bulldogs 27-24.

13. Miami at Maryland September 5th. LY Miami had a 504-254 yd edge but needed a GW 35 yd TD w/:37 left to pull out the win. The Canes were playing without their starting QB and RB. While MD overachieved LY, Miami underachieved. I think Miami will prevail and will release my actual score later this month!

14. Notre Dame at Pittsburgh September 24th. ND is 13-4 vs Pitt S/'88 but did drop their L/trip to Heinz Field in '09. LY Pitt in the 1H had 3 drives reach the ND9, 10 and 19 but came away w/3 ttl pts in the 23-17 loss. New Pitt HC Graham is familiar with ND as LY while HC at Tulsa was able to beat the Irish 28-27. Pitt has my #1 rated D in the BE but ND has the more exp'd team, another year with their schemes and I will call for them to win 27-24.

15. West Virginia at Maryland September 17th. WV has won 5 str over MD incl LY when they led 28-0 mid-3Q but allowed MD back in w/3 redzone TO's. New MD HC Edsall went 1-6 vs WV (win was LY) while he was the HC at UConn and the Terrapins are 27-4 hosting non-conf foes S/'98. MD is off a bye while WV has LSU on deck so the situation does favor MD but WV's off under Holgorsen should be getting into high gear and WV gets a key road win 31-28.

16. Missouri at Arizona St September 9th. These two meet for the first time S/'90 in a key non-conf game for both teams. MU has won 6 str road openers incl the L/5 all by DD's. ASU is 4-0 at home vs non-conf tms but last hosted a non-conf BCS school in '08 (lost to #3 UGA 27-10). ASU does have the more exp'd QB and playing at home I will call for them to get the win 27-21.

17. Miami, Fl at Virginia Tech October 8th. A battle between the two best teams in the ACC Coastal. LY's gm was tied 17-17 into the 4Q but UM tossed 3 int's in VT territory on its L/3 possessions. UM is just 2-6 the L/8 meetings vs VT and their last visit to Blacksburg they came in ranked #9 and left dazed with VT winning 31-7. The Hokies are off Clemson while UM is off Bethune-Cookman. However with VT playing at home and owning this series as of late they win 24-17.

18. Notre Dame at Michigan September 10th. First night game in Michigan history and both teams will be wearing throwback uniforms. The L/2 years have seen exciting finishes as UM has scored GW td’s in the final :30 in both to pull out the upsets. LY Robinson set a UM QB record w/502 ttl yds and the Wolverines benefited from ND QB Crist being out for 8 series in the 1H (0 pts). The visitor in series is just 3-9 S/’97 and ND has lost 4 of the L/5 but they have not lost 3 str to UM since 1908 and are the more exp’d team getting a key road win 31-27.

19. Arkansas at LSU November 25th. This rivalry has been decided by a TD or less (five by 5 pts or less) the L/6 yrs. Ark has won 3 of L/4 but lost their L/visit to Baton Rouge as LSU kicked a 41-yd FG w/:04 to force OT. LSU is 10-2 in their L/12 yrs in home finales and the winner could find themselves heading to a BCS bowl game like LY. I'll call for LSU to get some revenge in yet another close game between these two 28-24.

20. Utah at BYU September 17th. The 87th "Holy War" and will be the first time the schools are not in the same conference. This game has been decided by a TD or less 12x's in the L/14 yrs. LY BYU led 13-0 into the 4Q but down 1, had a 42 yd FG blk'd as time expired. Both teams are off tough road gms so homefield advantage could be the key (HT has won L/4 in series). The Cougs get a huge win 30-23.

21. Syracuse at USC September 17th. These two have not played since the 1990 Kickoff Classic and the Trojans have taken both all-time meetings. SU is 2-9 S/'00 in road openers but won LY and are coming off Rhode Island with UT on deck. Meanwhile USC is off Utah with a big road game vs ASU on deck. While the Cuse have the situational edge USC is 15-1 hosting non-conf opp's S/'02 and clearly have the talent advantages across the board and win 38-17.

22. Pittsburgh at West Virginia November 25th. The 104th "Backyard Brawl" and there have been upsets in 6 of the last 9 games. LY the yds were close and it was tied 7-7 but WV took advantage of 4 Pitt TO's resulting in 21 pts. Both teams are coming off byes and both teams have games on deck. Pitt is just 1-3 in Morgantown since 2002 and with the homefield edge I'll call for WV to win a close one 27-24.

23. Ohio St at Nebraska October 8. This is the Bucks first trip ever to Lincoln and they get their four susp'd players back. First ever Big 10 home game for NU and the Huskers are off a key road trip to Wisconsin while the Bucks are off MSU. HC Pelini is an OSU alumni ('90) and earned 4 letters as a FS there. The Huskers should be sky high in this game and while the Bucks are 21-3 L/6 yrs on the B10 road this is a new venue for them and I'll call for NU to win 24-17.

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